Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

The Spanish Constitutional Court has a conservative majority, pretty much like the US Supreme Court. The term of the current members of the Constitutional Court expired some years ago, but the PP refuses to negotiate the Court's renewal with the governnent. The reason is simple: Pablo Casado's PP has the aim to preserve the current majority, in the hope conservatives and the far-right win the next general election. Sadly the conservative members of that court are drifting rightwards ards Vox. Thi is deeply disturbing, to say the least

Worth noting that while this is true, the Spanish TC isn't quite as partisan as say, the US Supreme court, and there was a bit of crossover here. In particular, the decision was 6-5; with one progressive voting with the conservative majority and 2 conservatives dissenting.

I actually agree with the decision from a judicial point of view, even if I can filly say that Sanchez had no good options there.

(I will say I do not condone PP's shameless power grab at all)

Isn't it the State of Alarm the appropiate legal tool to handle with a pandemic? Isn't it in the constitution? Isn't it the State of Emergency more restrictive and invasive? Isn't it the Spanish Right crying out "freedom"? Where is the consistency?

[Velasco]

Morning of the Long Knives
Deputy PM Calvo and the Foreign Affairs, Education, Science, Justice, Transport and Culture ministers are out, along with Moncloa Chief of Staff Iván Redondo. A total and complete massacre.

Female majority cabinets are back
Number of Deputy PMs goes down to three. New First Deputy PM is Nadia Calviño, Economy minister. Sánchez confidante Félix Bolaños replaces Calvo as Minister for the Presidency. Sánchez oldtimer Óscar López makes a comeback as Chief of Staff. Senate President Pilar Llop becomes the new Minister of Justice, rumor has it Susana Díaz could replace her in the upper chamber.

Fresh faces in the rest of posts. Also, mayors. Mayor of Gavá Raquel Sánchez replaces former heavyweight José Luis Ábalos (he is also out as PSOE organization secretary) in Transport, Zaragoza councillor Pilar Alegría is the new Minister for Education and Mayor of Puertollano Isabel Rodríguez comes in as Territorial Policy Minister, replacing Miquel Iceta, who remains in the cabinet as Minister for Culture; in addition to Government Spokesperson. Ambassador to France José Manuel Albares is the new Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Sadly, we no longer have an astronaut in the Council of Ministers. Minister of Science Pedro Duque is being replaced by (surprise, surprise) a mayor. Specifically the Mayor of Gandía, Diana Morant.

Forgive my ignorance, but it seems a bit unusual to me that mayors of cities of about 50,000, and a mere councillor from a city of 700,000, would be appointed to the national cabinet. How common is this in Spain, and how well-known were these individuals before becoming ministers?

Worth noting that those people held higher offices other than councillor or mayor; or at least had held them in the past.

Pilar Alegría was the incumbent "Government Delegate in Zaragoza Province" (sort of an envoy of the central government in the provinces, a bit of a holdover position from when Spain was more centralized but still a fairly high profile position). She was also "Regional minister for Innovation and Universities" in the Aragon government between 2015 and 2019; as well as being the PSOE candidate for mayor of Zaragoza in 2019 even if she lost the race.

Similarly Isabel Rodríguez had previously held the position of "Government Spokeswoman" in Castille-La Mancha's regional government between 2008 and 2011. Granted she has not held such a high profile office since, but still that's a reasonably high office.

The weird naming if anything is Raquel Sánchez, who was an obscure mayor of some small town in Catalonia, which indeed is one that makes little sense. There are higher profile people in PSC though perhaps Sánchez wanted to elevate someone obscure for whatever reason.

If you read their background not as "mayor of a small town" but rather as "Government Delegate into  province" and "For their naming makes a bit more sense; Government Delegates and regional cabinets are a fairly common position to pick people from.

Since 2020 Pilar Alegría (Education) has been the delegate of the Spanish government in the region of Aragón, not only in Zaragoza province. She held the Innovation, Research and Universities portfolios in the Aragonese government (2015-2019), as well she was the leader of the opposition in the Zaragoza City Hall before her appointment as government delegate (her list came first in the 2019 elections, but rightwing parties have a majority). She has been member of the Congress of Deputies for Zaragoza (2008-2015) and member of the Aragonese regional parliament (2015-2019). Also, Pilar Alegría has held some important positions within the party and was the spokeswoman of the Susana Díaz candidacy in the leadership contest against Pedro Sánchez,  so her appointment apparently signals the Spanish PM wants to integrate party factions and stregthen the PSOE (Susana Díaz has been defeated in Andalusia and the leadership of Pedro Sánchez is currently unchallenged). Pilar Alegría was born in 1977 and has a Teaching Diploma (Primary Education)

Diana Morant (Science and Innovation) hasxa degree as Telecommunicatuons Engineer and was mayor of Gandia (Valencia) since 2015. Morant was also a member of the Diputación (provincial government). She joined the PSOE in 2011

Raquel Sánchez (Transport) has been the mayor of Gavá (Barcelona) since 2014. She held positions within the PSOE related to women's oolicies and climate action. Raquel Sánchez is said to be close to Salvador Illa, former Health minister and PSC candidate in the last Catalan elections. Her appointment us apparently ained at increasing the PSC quota in the government (comoensating the downgrade of Miquel Iceta from Territorial Policy to Culture and Sports). Before entering oolitics Raquel Sánchez was a lawyer

As said before, Isabel Rodríguez (Territorial Policy) was the spokeswoman of a regional government. Her appointment as the new national government's spokeswoman, which is a very important role, must be motivated by her communication skills. Isabel Rodríguez has a degree in Law and has been MP for Ciudad Real (2011-2019) before her election as mayor of Puertollano in 2019. She has a reputation for being hard working and socialist "from head to toe". Rodríguez is close to the premier of Castilla-La Mancha Emiliano García-Page, who is obe of the main critics of Pedro Sánchez on issues like pardons the handling of the Catalan conflict.  Ger appointment replacing PSC leader Miquel Iceta perplexed me, but anyway it's clear that Pedro Sánchez is seeking to integrate factions and stregthen the PSOE after the Madrid fiasco

In sum, these new ministers are relatively young and low profile (with the exception of Pilar Alegría, who is a relatively important figure within the PSOE). Anyway I think the role of local politics is increasingly important (as well it provides management experience and proximity to the citizens), even though only the mayors of big cities like Madrid and Barcelona (Valencia, Sevilla and Zaragoza trail at a great distance) have name recognition and a high profile in Spanish politics

[Velasco]

Vox and Chega have a good relationship, except in the occassions Vox is tweeting maps pf the Spanish Empire including Portugal  and its former colonies

https://twitter.com/ivanedlm/status/1447839605974306816?t=ATHrAaR5BM8awfh2tzxupg...

[Velasco]

CHEGA and Vox becoming closer now is mystery, to be honest. They had a very estranged relationship, almost ignoring each other, but recently they become closer. I suspect that Ventura may be, like I wrote in the Portuguese thread, seeing the colapse of Le Pen and Salvini and wants new "friendships" to remain relevant in the European far-right movement. That's my hunch. Also, the map is just ridiculous and Ventura's hails to Spain in that rally were also mocked, but it's not getting a lot of coverage because of the current "political tension/crisis" in the country.

I listen to the news when I'm coming home after work (saving our healthcare system), but I'm not visiting this forum very often my focus is far from politics lately. I feel a bit surprised reading about political tensions or crises concerning our wise neighbours (Spain has plenty of them)

From what I've been listening, news cycle in Spain is dominated these days bu the following subjects:

- La Palma volcano, which erupted on September 19 and is still very active with no signs of decline. The ongoing eruption has caused the loss of a thousand homes, properties and valuable banana crops. Pedro Sánchez has visited the island on several occassions and is showing legitimate concern (imo). I have relatives in La Palma,  but they don't live in the area affected by the volcano.

- The skyrocketing electricity prices, which relate to structural problems extremely hard to solve. The government has presented a plan to top the exorbitant bill by limiting the extraordinary profits made by electric companies, which in turn declare war on the government. Pedro Sánchez has appealed to European insritutions with very limited success, in order to coordinate a response. In addition to tariff systems that favor the oligopoly of electric companies, European countries are facing rising gas prices and serious supply problems related to geopolitical problems (for instance: Alger us the main supplier in Spain and the country is at odds with Morocco,  due to the situation in Western Sahara) and prospects of diminishing productions. The impending energy crisis snd the scarcity of resources could eventually cause disruptions in the cjain supply (look at the situation in the UK before calling me alarmist)

-.PSOE and UP reached an agreement on the budget plan. The negotiation with parliamentary allies (ERC, PNV...) begins

- PP and opposition leader Pablo Casado have been extremely aggressive and obstructionist, especially regarding the renewal of the General Council of the Judiciary. In a surprise move the PP made a kast minute offer to the PSOE, in order to renew all the constitutional organs except the afirementioned General Council. Later a PP spokesman said "everything is possible "

- Spain is finally at low Covid risk, due to the success in the vaccination campaign.  We enter a strange pseudo-normality

[Velasco]

The volcano in Palma is going to remain active probably for several months. Just to compare, the last eruption in the Azores islands lasted a full year in 1957-58. The best thing to do, IMO, may be to define a big "exclusion zone" and try to live in the most normal possible way, because this is nature and you can't beat it, unfortunately.

About energy costs, how much in VAT on electricity in Spain? Here we are having the exactly same issues but with flip flops on taxes on energy and fuel which are upsetting everyone. Curious that Spain has a lower Covid rate per 100,000 inhabitants that Portugal, even though we have more share of the population fully vaccinated.

The last eruption in La Palma was fifty years ago and lasted about three weeks (Teneguia in 1971). Another eruption took place in 1949 (San Juan). Teneguia, San Juan and the new volcano are located on a mountain range called Cumbre Vieja (the name means "old top" or "old peak"), which is ironically the youngest part of the island and is geologically active. Also, a submarine eruption took place in 2018 near the southern tip of El Hierro. The Azores and the Canaries are volcanic islands,  huilt by thousands of eruptions like this one in La Palma.  There is already an exclusuon zone and more than 6000 people have been evacuated. As you say, nothing can be done against the forces of nature.  Thankfully there are no human casualties,  despite the loss of homes and crops swallowed by the lava flows. The eruption might last some months, but hopefully it won't last as kong as the seven years of Timanfaya in Lanzarote ( took place in XVIII century)

VAT on electricity is at 21% but it has been temporarily reduced to 10%, in order to curb the fast rise in prices. Needless to say it has heen to no avail. The root causes of the exorbitant rise in the electricity bill are in the marginalist price system, according to which we must pay etectricity produced by the cheapest means (hydro, for instance) at the price of the most expensive (gas). Anyway fuel is going to be more expensive from now on, as the production is expected to diminish in the next few years. Even The Economist admits we enter in a period of scarcity in fossil fuels (there is no mention to peaks in production, ehichbus an obvious one,  but to other multiple factors that contribute to the energy crisis)

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/09/20/what-is-behind-rocketing-natural-gas-prices

[Velasco]

The PSOE has been holding its 40th convention during this weekend in Valencia. Reports say supreme leader Pedro Sánchez has managed to convey an image of unity, while party leadership has been reshaped to incorporate younger people, more women and six cabinet members (as well as the Extremadura premier). Former PM Felipe González said he's loyal to the party, but vindicatesd his right to state his opinions (mostly contrary to Pedro Sánchez). Some resolutions adopted:

* The PSOE renounces to a change in the model of state. In other words: the party reafirms its commitment to "republican and democratic values", as well as its loyalty to the constitutional pact of 1978 and the parliamentary monarchy

* The PSOE commits itself to develop a regional financing model that "funds the real costs of public services ", in order to prevent "differences between citizens and territories "

* The PSOE commits itself to abolish prostitution within this legislative period,  punishing consumers ("puteros" in Spanish). Abolishing prostitution must be accompanied by measures of social and laboral reintegration.

"More cash for regions, defense, science: Spanish government details expansive budget plan"

https://english.elpais.com/economy-and-business/2021-10-14/more-cash-for-regions-defense-science-spanish-government-details-expansive-budget-plan.html

  Details of the draft budget that the center-left government of Pedro Sánchez presented to Spanish parliament on Wednesday show a record-setting public-spending program for 2022 thanks largely to an influx of European funds to mitigate the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. 

[Velasco]

The tweet on the Vox venue 'Viva 21' shared by Zinneke is very interesting. Indeed it's remarkable the vast network of alliances with Latin American reactionaries

https://twitter.com/MarianaSeMendes/status/1447860855018754048?t=kX-kcYGNdSe3MoH...

If you think twice, it's not so weird Latin American right-wingers care little about Vox's imperialistic rhetoric. Keep in mind that, in most cases, they represent racist criollo elites. They are the kind of people fought by the movements supporting the rights of the indigenous peoples.

However, there are limits to such things. Madrid premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso is mimicking Vox's rhetoric on the "discovery" (and she's mot the only one), while criticizing heavily indigenous movements (deemed as communist by her) and the Pope Francis. The latter was recently asking forgiveness for past abuses of rhe Church in America, which is far from being extraordinay given similar statements made by the staunch conservatives John Paul II and Benedictus XVI. During a short trip to Washington DC, Ayuso held a meeting with 4 or 5 Hispanic congressmen (out of 30-something caucus members,  presumably anti-communist), whom refused to endorse Ayuso on her attacks to indigenous movements.

Latin American leaders endorsing Vox's "cultural battle against the left and the globalism" include:

Keiko Fujimori and FranciscoTudela (Peru), Javier Milei and Victoria Villaruel (both Argentinian 'libertarians')
Tuto Quiroga (former Bolivian president)
Eduardo Bolsonaro (son of the Brazilian president)
María Corina Machado (Venezuela)
Andrés Pastrana (former Colombian president)
José Antonio Kast (Chile)

Also endorsing:

Ted Cruz (US senator)
Giorgia Meloni (Italy)
Matteusz Morawiecki (Polish PM)
Viktor Orban (Supreme Leader of Hungary)
MR ANDER VENTURA (Portugal)

Quite impressive list, actually

https://gaceta.es/actualidad/el-apoyo-de-meloni-ventura-orban-morawiecki-milei-y-bolsonaro-muestra-la-fortaleza-internacional-de-vox-20211012-0500/

[Velasco]

[
Which just underline the truth. They do not care about nationalism. They want to create a global dictatorship where they will be able to kill and torture their opponents.

They care a lot about nationalism,  but obviously their nation is not that of the original Americans ("indogenous", "Amerindians").  They claim to have "shared values" related to a "Christian civilization", as well they see themsrlves equal to the "White Europeans" (despite US racial categories, which make a clear distinction between "hispanics" and "caucasians")

[Velasco]

Tbh what I found most interesting about the Vox convemtion was how it was a huge political party, it genuinely looked super fun. I'll confess I considered unironically attending

Probably the biggest politics related festival since the good old "fiesta del 

My idea of having fun does not include the company of Christian fundamentalists or radical rightwingers. The PCE annual party is a long established tradition, oth

[Velasco]

It looks like a recipe for disaster, in case UP, Adelante Andalucía MP are unable to forge electoral alliances  i read in the news Más País will ally with two tiny regionalist organizations (Andalucía por el Si, and Iniciativa), as well seeks an alliance with Equo. The MP regional coordinator says alliances with Adelante are difficult due to some stances held by the Teresa Rodríguez party (I guesss Esperanza Gómezrefers to some rhetorics of grievance), but they are not discarded.

Adelante Andalucía ("Forward Andalusia") was initially an electoral alliance to contest the 2018 regional elections incorporating Podemos, IU and regionalists. Internal divisions within the alliance and Podemos itsef led to the split of the faction led by Teresa Rodríguez,  who controlled the Podemos regional organization in Andalusia and was one of the leaders of Anticapitalistas (the left-wing trotskyst faction of Podemos, solit in February 2020). Initially it seemed that Pablo Iglesias and Teresa Rodríguez parted in good terms, with both leaders sharing a video and pronising a future reunion or collaboration. Some months later (October 2020), a nasty conflict within the AA parliamentary group led to the expulsion of Teresa Rodríguez and her loyals (the latter were a majority within the caucus, but the other parliamentary groups agreed that UP would retain the group status in the regional assembly). Teresa Rodríguez and her supporters owned the Adelante Andalucía trademark and used it to launch a new party (Adelante was re-founded in a convention held at Granada's emblematic Albaicin, July 2021). Adelante Andalucía is sovereigntist and might resemble in some ways leftwing organizations like Bildu or the CUP, but as far as I can tell AA does not stand for Andalusian independence.

(I think Cs is too high in that poll: that 8% is unrealistic for a dead party. The PP isa bit high too, but 38% seems more plausible if oranges collapse)

More interestingly there has been speculation in the last months regarding to the plans of Yolanda Díaz, who is seeking to build a "broad front " or cross-party alliance that transcends Unidas Podemos,  incorporating elements of the civil society while avoiding ego contests and "testosterone". Yolanda Díaz is currently focused on her duties as Deputy PM and Labour minister, but it's possible she has begun contacts. The apparent heir to Pablo Iglesias has remarkable differences with her friend in what concerns communication and (presumably) leadership style. Recently Iván Redondo, that Chief of Staff apparently sacked by Pedro Sánchez after the Madrid fiasco, said Yolanda Díaz could become PM, reasining that she has a very strong profile (best valued politician atm) and is the preferred candidate by those under 45.  Pedro Sánchez himself praises her deputy and wishes she is able to unite the forces to the left of PSOE.  Iñigo Errejón and Más País rule out the possibility of an alliance at rhis moment, arguing it's too soon and the candidacy of Yolanda Díaz is not consolidated . However MP members say in private they could be forced to join the Yolanda Díaz project,  given that she appeals to the same voters and represents the same brand of pragmatic leftism

[Velasco]

The PNV is clearly worried about the normalization of Bildu. They see it as a threat to their control of the Basque government.  


https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/pais-vasco/2021-10-20/el-pnv-pone-en-duda-el-discurso-de-otegi-es-un-instrumento-para-conseguir-sus-fines_3309621/

https://www.abc.es/espana/abci-sobre-palabras-otegi-cara-declaracion-sobre-victimas-202110201211_noticia.html

I think the complete "normalization" of Bildu requires a generational replacement in the leadership,  for the old guard is inevitably linked to ETA. Otegi made an important move in naming the suffering of ETA victims -ten years after the end of the terrorist group-, but it's still insufficient. I have a hard time imagining government coalitions including Bildu and PSOE right now, but it could happen in the future when Otegi is retired

I refuse to comment Villarejo's stuff

[Velasco]

Yolanda Díaz, greeted with chants of "prime minister" and shouts from teamsters at an event for women politicians in Valencia
“We are here to stay”, assured Mónica Oltra, at the start of the ‘Otras políticas’ event

https://elpais.com/espana/2021-11-13/yolanda-diaz-recibida-con-proclamas-de-presidenta-y-gritos-de-transportistas-en-el-acto-de-mujeres-politicas-de-valencia.html

I will now attempt to translate the first paragraph of the body of this story. Please native Spaniards bear with me in my translations for I am merely a household speaker and don't really understand some of the more technical terms in this story, especially la dignificación del sector at the end which I think translates to "respect" but could be wrong. And I'm pretty sure that transportistas are "teamsters" but correct me if I'm wrong.

Amid chants of "prime minister," Yolanda Díaz was received upon her arrival to the event organized in Valencia by Iniciativa, the party of Mónica Oltra. The 2nd Deputy Prime Minister, together with Oltra, the Vice President of the Valencian government; the Mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau; the leader of Más Madrid, Mónica García; and the Ceutan politician Fátima Hossain participated in the event, […] The five women, arm in arm, waved left and right, applauded the attendees, and found, less than a hundred meters away at the entrance of the theater, a demonstration of teamsters who managed to put themselves nearly centimeters from the women and who threw a few eggs. Despite the fact that the police had to intervene, after containing the protesters a few meters from the entrance for more than half an hour, the cheers for the leaders were greater than the shouts against them. The protesters flung chants of "they do not represent us" as part of their protest for the respect of the sector.

The political discussion around this has to do with the public display of pro- and anti-Yolanda sentiment, as well as the exclusion of Podemos politicians from the event (Yolanda is an Izquierda Unida/Partido Comunista member of the Unidas Podemos alliance as well as the alliance's de facto leader, but not a member of the Podemos party). It's believed that these 5 women will be part of a new political alliance seeking to replace Unidas Podemos, although they deny these claims.

I, for one, welcome our new feminist overlords.

"Transportistas" can be translated as "carriers" or "hauliers", but "teamsters" is OK ("camionero": trucker).

"Dignificar el sector" can be translated as "dignifying the (transport) sector"

Those truckers who throw eggs make me think a little in Chile, 1973. Maybe I'm exaggerating,  but I see there are too many angry people and a clear danger of reactionary involution. On the other hand, it seems some powerful business people want a PP-Vox government. Others in the establishment would prefer a PP-PSOE Grand Coalition without the evil Pedro Sánchez

Yolanda Díaz is right now the most popular leader at a personal level, so she is increasingly perceived as dangerous by her rivals (external and internal). Yolanda Díaz is still a PCE member, but she has never been in Podemos and withdrew from IU a couple of years ago.  Currently she is much more than the declining Unidas Podemos, as well the only person capable to unify all the parties and organizations to the left of the PSOE

[Velasco]

Yolanda Díaz momentum

 "Who is the communist shaking up Spanish politics?"

https://www.thelocal.es/20211120/who-is-the-communist-shaking-up-spanish-politics/

Spain’s rising political star is Communist Labour Minister Yolanda Diaz, who has won over employers and voters and is now trying to carve out a new space on the far left before the next general election.

Little known two years ago, polls show the 50-year-old labour lawyer is Spain’s most highly regarded politician, ahead of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and the leaders of conservative parties.

Conservative daily newspaper ABC has called her Spain’s “most powerful female politician” and on Facebook fan pages her supporters dream she will become the nation’s first woman PM.

 

[Velasco]

RTVE has been obsessed with covering Diaz's public appearances. She's like their new Ayuso

Yolanda Díaz is the opposite to Isabel Díaz Ayuso, in terms of ideology and style. Hopefully she could be the antidote. Díaz is very popular right now (best rated political leader, according to oolls), but she has no party (the PCE does not contest elections since the 1980s) and her "Broad Front" hasn't been formed yet.

[Velasco]

What is the PCE stance on Catalonia/secessionism and if they form a broad front, what parties would they form it with?

The stance of the PCE on Catalonia is presumably the same stance of IU, which is: advocacy for dialog to solve the conflict and for a federal Spain. Podemos stands for the same things and is favourable to hold a referendum on self-determination, despite it doesn't support the seccession of Catalonia

The PCE does not contest elections since the 1980s and is not going to lead the "btoad front" proposed by Yolanda Diaz. IU was founded in 1986,  incorporating the PCE and other organizations and contesting every election until 2015. In the following year (2016) IU merged with Podemos to form Unidas Podenos, which is an electoral coalition. Yolanda Díaz is seeking to incorporate the parties within Unidas Podemos, as well as other parties outside UP (Más País,  Comoromis...) and independents from the "civil society". The idea is to reunify and reformulate all the space to the left of the PSOE, not merely adding parties. Despite being neccessary, Podemos is not going to lead the "broad front" and that loss of protagonism might lead to conflicts or tensions between Díaz and the current Podemoa leadership (neither Ione Belarra nor Irene Montero attended the venue in Valencia). The project of Yolanda Díaz and her candidacy need to be materialized

Besides that project, following the example of Teruel Existe, multiple organizations are assembling a front that represents the "Empty Spain" (Spain's most depopulated provinces), challenging the hegemony PP and PSOE in rural provinces

https://elpais.com/espana/2021-11-21/el-15-m-rural-desafia-al-psoe-y-al-pp.html

[Velasco]

Pablo Casado, 21 Nov: En el PP "no caben personalismos", el partido no es de “solistas” ni "una hoguera de las vanidades que no conducen a ninguna parte", "esto no es un talent show de megalomanías".

^{El PP cierra filas con Casado en Andalucía: "Esto no es un 'talent show' de megalomanías" https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/andalucia/2021-11-21/el-pp-cierra-filas-con-casado-en-andalucia_3328119/}

Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo y Peralta-Ramos XIV Marquesa de Casa Fuerte, 22 Nov: “Está llamando personalismo a la personalidad, y divismo al liderazgo”, ha reflexionado. “Es una vieja trampa de la izquierda confundir la libertad, la personalidad, con la megalomanía para anular al individuo que destaca. Es un camino que no nos conviene recorrer.”

Álvarez de Toledo acaba de publicar un libro que ha incendiado al PP. En Políticamente indeseable (Ediciones B), la ex portavoz parlamentaria describe a Casado como un líder “veleta” y acusa al secretario general, Teodoro García Egea, de hacerle “bullying” [acoso].

^{Álvarez de Toledo responde a Casado: “Está llamando personalismo a la personalidad, y divismo al liderazgo” https://elpais.com/espana/2021-11-22/alvarez-de-toledo-responde-a-casado-esta-llamando-personalismo-a-la-personalidad-y-divismo-al-liderazgo.html}

Isabel Díaz Ayuso, 22 Nov: "Nadie se va contra nadie, todo se malinterpreta."

^{https://twitter.com/LaHoraTVE/status/1462701266065367043}

If you want to comment about PP internal disputes, please translate

CIS... Everything the CIS says is bullsh**t, it is easily the worst pollster in Spain.

That's not true. If you are talking about vote estimations, I concur they are crappy because Tezanos is a PSOE hack who changed the methodology. However the CIS polls contain valuable raw data that is used by political scientists or election experts to decipher the trends. Yolanda Díaz popularity is rating high for other pollsters as well:

DYM ratings: Yolanda Díaz  4.2, Pedro Sánchez 3.6, Inés Arrimadas 3.6, Pablo Casado 3.4, Santiago Abascal 2.9

According to DYM, 44.7% believe Yolanda Díaz is the best suited to lead that "broad frobt" of the left (85.5% of UP voters, 68.6% of the PSOE voters... 62.9% of the Vox voters!)

https://www.diariodesevilla.es/espana/valoracion-lideres-sondeo-Yolanda-Diaz-preferida-Ayuso-busca-salto_0_1623439341.html

On the other hand, the popularity of political leaders is not neccessarilly related to electoral success. For instance, Adolfo Suárez was rated among the most popular leaders by the CIS during the mid and late 1980s, but the CDS never won an election. Inés Arrimadas and Iñigo Errejón are scoring relatively high in recent polls, but their parties are polling around 3%

[Velasco]

Lol sorry. Tried translating "personalismos" into a word that people actually use in English (as in, not "personalisms") and gave up.

Pablo Casado, 21 Nov: "Personalisms [cults of personality? idk] do not fit" in the PP, the party is not for "soloists” nor is it "a a bonfire of the vanities that leads nowhere", "this is not a talent show [he used 'talent show' in English] for megalomaniacs".

Pablo Casado meant a party is about "trascending personalities". I guess "personalismo" can be translated as "personality " or "personality cultism"; yeah

"Divismo" is another term you can read in that news. It refers to people acting like divas. Some folks in the PP would say that Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo or Ayuso are prima donnas*

* Like them or not (I dislike them a lot), Álvarez de Toledo and Ayuso are interesting characters in their own style (there's little in common between the aristocrat and the populist leader of Madrid, ideology aside). These women are too much for  poor Teodoro García Egea, the mediocre secretary general of the PP

[...]

DYM ratings: Yolanda Díaz  4.2, Pedro Sánchez 3.6, Inés Arrimadas 3.6, Pablo Casado 3.4, Santiago Abascal 2.9

According to DYM, 44.7% believe Yolanda Díaz is the best suited to lead that "broad front" of the left (85.5% of UP voters, 68.6% of the PSOE voters... 62.9% of the Vox voters!)

https://www.diariodesevilla.es/espana/valoracion-lideres-sondeo-Yolanda-Diaz-preferida-Ayuso-busca-salto_0_1623439341.html

On the other hand, the popularity of political leaders is not neccessarilly related to electoral success. For instance, Adolfo Suárez was rated among the most popular leaders by the CIS during the mid and late 1980s, but the CDS never won an election. Inés Arrimadas and Iñigo Errejón are scoring relatively high in recent polls, but their parties are polling around 3%

Yeah we all know how that one ended:

Not bad point, but Yolanda Díaz is much better than Rosa Díez. Basically our current Labour minister has forged agreements with employers and unions, in order to umplement measures that saved thousands of jobs during the pandemic.

[Velasco]

ERC and En Comú Podem reached sn agreement in Catalonia, in order the latter votes to pass the regional budget and the former unlocks the passing of the Barcelona local budget. This agreement was sealed bypassing JxCAT, which is is the ERC's coalition partner in the Catalan government. Previously the CUP rejected to vote the regional budget, leaving the regional government in minority. JxCAT reacted angrily, in spite the budget was drafted by a minister from that party.  JxCAT spokeswoman Elsa Artadi said the agreement is a "defeat" of the pro-independence bloc. The radical faction represented by Ernest Maragall, the ERC spokesman in the Barcelona City Hall, has been "defeated" by the pragmatic faction of premier Pere Aragonès

Meanwhile the Spanish government secured enough votes to pass the budget, reaching agreements with all the parties that voted the investiture of Pedro Sánchez.  ERC was the last party to seal an agreement, which will secure a 6% quota in audiovisual production for languages different from Spanish (Catalan,  Basque and Galician)

The Andalusian premier Moreno Bonilla is reluctant to call a snap election, given that he is a "moderate" who feels more comfortable with Cs in the government. An indiscretion by deputy premier Juan Marín (Cs) has been used as a pretext to withdraw support from Vox. In case deadlock continues and EU funds cannot be implemented, there will be elections next spring.  Conservative papers have said already the PP national leadership is favourable to a snap election,  in order to test a PP-Vox coalition at regional level. The right is polling well in Andalusia,  while the PSOE is stagnant and the parties to the left are in a state of disarray. So Andalusia could be the first place to experiment how the Polish and Hungarian models work in Spain

[Velasco]

It seems the PP national leadership is seeking to teplicate the success of Ayuso in Madrid. Pablo Casado needs successful elections in Castilla y León and Andalucía because: a) he needs to prolong the momentum after the Ayuso landslide in Madrid and b) he also needs to reafirm his fragile leadership, while the PP's mpmentum is apparently fading due to the conflict between Casado and Ayuso. The PP is also seeking to prevent the effects of the Empty Spain alternative . I have no time to elaborate on the inconsistencies of Pablo Casado, who is a terrible leader by any standard

[Velasco]

Mañueco had a very strange way to announce the new election. Using super dramatic words like "treason" and talking about the consequences of betrayal… could the hyperbolics backfire or is he safe to be re-elected?

I don't know, but for sure his national leader Pablo Casado has set a bew standard for hyperbolics. Just watch recent parliamentary speeches. Casado has crossed the
red lines on several occassions and is playing the Vox's game, but he's simply too stupid and ignorant to be aware

[Velasco]

What's this new Centrem party in Catalunya

Apparently Centrem is the new attempt to launch a party representing moderate (pro-independence) nationalists in Catalonia. "Moderate" means centre-right (liberal) ideology and a softer approach to the national question, vindicating negotiation within legal framework to achieve independence. The main figure seems to be Angels Chacón, who was the unsuccessful PDeCAT candidate in the February 2021 election. Chacón claims her newborn artifact is the first "post-procès party". The first convention has been set on March 13

in other news El País released a poll conducted by Belén Barreiro's 40dB that reflects increasing polarization and fragmentation, as well as a disturbing Vox surge. The poll shows apparently contradictory signs from a society affected by a strong pandemic weariness. Most of the legislative initiatives launched by the coalition government (including new labor legislation, euthanasia and some others) are approved by a majority. However and regardless the remarkable legislative production (besides the unexpected stability of the heterogeneous majority in parliament), the government is perceived as fragile and divided. It seems clear this government has a problem of image and is failing to counter the narratives sustained on fake news and the extreme verbal aggressiveness of Vox and PP.

The 40dB poll paints an unruly chaos

PSOE 26.1% (108 seats)
PP 23.5% (100 seats)
VOX 18.3% (66 seats)
UP 11.8% (31 seats)
Cs 3.6% (2 seats)
MP 3.6% (4 seats)
Others 12.8% (39 seats)

https://elpais.com/espana/2022-01-09/el-psoe-resiste-ante-el-avance-de-la-derecha-empujada-por-vox.html

The last example is an inflated controversy on the (manipulated) statements of Alberto Garzón, minister of Consumer Affairs. Garzón told in an interview to The Guardian that meat produced in big farms (thousands of heads of livestock living in stables) is of inferior quality* to that produced in extensive farms with sustainable methods (traditional or ecological farming). Besides, there are serious environmental issues with massive farms (carbon emissions, soil and water pollution), Garzón has been accused by conservative media and right-wing opposition, arguing his statements are an attack to the livestock sector and asking Pedro Sánchez to fire Garzón. The problem is that PSOE 'barons' like Emiliano García Page (Castilla-La Mancha), the Agriculture minister Luis Planas and even Pedro Sánchez have criticized Garzón and made statements in support of the livestock industry, In other words, the PSOE is feeding the controversy and helping the PP to score a match point in the upcoming Castilla y León elections

*"Inferior quality" was "translated as "poor quality" in the English version

[Velasco]

El Norte de Castilla provides infographics on Castilla y León elections

10 regional elections have been held since the inaugural took place in 1983. The PSOE was the largest party in 1983, getting 42 seats and governed with the support of the liberal PDL.The first premier was the socialist Demetrio Madrid, who resigned in 1986. AP and PSOE were tied  in the 1987 elections, while the centrist CDS skyrocketed from 2 to 18 seats and became the kingmaker. PP candidate José Maria Aznar was elected premier with the support of the CDS, being replaced in 1989 by Jesús Posada. That year Aznar was designated heir by Manuel Fraga and AP was refurbished into the modern PP. The 1991 elections signaled the beginning of the PP hegemony in the region, with comfortable majorities in subsequent elections for premiers Juan José Lucas (1991-2001) and Juan Vicente Herrera (2001-2019). The PSOE became again the largest party in 2019, but the PP remained in power through a coalition deal with Cs. Premier Alfonso Fernández Mañueco broke the coalition alleging disloyalty, pretty much like Ayuso did in Madrid past year

1983: PSOE 42, AP 39, CDS 2, PDL 1 (total 84)
1987: PSOE 32, AP 32, CDS 18, PDP 1, SI 1 (total 84)
1991: PP 43, PSOE 35, CDS 5, IU 1 (total 84)
1995: PP 50, PSOE 27, IU 5, UPL 2 (total 84)
1999: PP 48, PSOE 30, UPL 3, IU 1, TC-PNC 1 (total 83)
2003: PP 48,  PSOE 32, UPL 2 (total 82)
2007: PP 48, PSOE 33, UPL 2 (total 83)
2011: PP 53, PSOE 29,  UPL 1 (total 83)
2015: PP 42, PSOE 25, Podemos 10, Cs 5, IU 1, UPL 1 (total 84)
2019: PSOE 35, PP 29, Cs 12, Podemos 2, Vox 1, UPL 1, XAV 1 (total 81)

The size of regional parliament has diminished due to depopulation

https://www.elnortedecastilla.es/castillayleon/resultados-autonomicas-castilla-20220111203519-nt.html

[Velasco]

The new Empty Spain party will contest regional elections in Castilla y León.  This new political group claims to be a cross-party movement and aims to represent the depopulated rural provinces of Spain.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/05/empty-promise-new-political-group-speaks-up-depopulated-rural-spain-espana-vaciada

Decades of depopulation have left huge stretches of rural Spain starved of people, attention and investment, and prompted the country’s Socialist-led coalition government to establish a ministry for the demographic challenge.

But for many in such areas, change has not come fast enough. At the end of September, an association of more than 160 local and regional groups decided to run as a joint platform in regional and national elections.

 The España Vaciada platform took its inspiration from the fact that Teruel Existe, a movement that campaigns to improve conditions in the overlooked Teruel region of eastern Spain, managed to win one seat in congress and two in the senate in the November 2019 general election. Despite having just one MP, Teruel Existe has become a powerful force in a political landscape that is increasingly fragmented and dependent on horse-trading to get things done (...)  

It's up to see whether the new party is able to break the PP-PSOE duopoly in rural areas, but no doubt this movement is one of the things to watch. Actually one of the reasons to call a snap election invoked by PP insiders off the record was to tackle the surge of the Empty Spain

The Empty Spain is still in construction phase and it's not yet implemented in all the territory. Five provincial lists have been put forward in the upcoming regional election: Soria, Palencia, Salamanca, Burgos and Valladolid

https://elpais.com/espana/2022-01-11/los-candidatos-de-espana-vaciada-soslayan-la-ideologia-frente-a-la-defensa-territorial.html

More the Emptied Spain movement and its potential (extensive coverage). Note that the Spanish electoral sustem favors depopulated provinces.  A party that gets 1 million of votes more or less uniformly spread nationwide can get only 2 seats in Congress  (IU in 2008 and 2015), while 1 million of votes concentrated in the less populated provinces could render as much as 20 or 25 seats

https://english.elpais.com/spain/2021-11-24/how-depopulation-of-rural-areas-is-fueling-political-protest-against-emptied-spain.html

 In 2019, the parties that won the most seats in the small provinces were the PSOE (42) and the PP (34), ahead of the far-right Vox (14) and the left-wing Unidas Podemos (three). The two big parties are, therefore, the ones that have the most to lose in these rural areas.

José Pablo Ferrándiz, from Elemental Research, believes that the scenario is “very complex,” but that getting into parliament would be “a very good result” for the rural platforms and that it makes sense for them to try because in such a fragmented political scenario, “a small party can make significant gains in exchange for their vote.”

In any case, Ferrándiz believes that it is “a wake-up call” for the traditional parties and that it could trigger changes, as the Indignados movement did in 2011 and 2012, in the internal workings of the big parties. “For example, when it comes to choosing the candidate for those provinces, they will have to be more involved at ground level in the area,” he points out. “The España Vaciada movement is also questioning the role of the Senate as a territorial chamber, as these groups have realized that a seat in Congress is more useful to them, giving them as it does more capacity to pressure and negotiate.”

But political scientist Pablo Simón believes it is too early to calculate the movement’s impact. “There are two years left [before the next general election] and they are very heterogeneous groups,” he says. “In the 1980s, many small and regional parties emerged because the conservative Alianza Popular, which was the genesis for the PP, was not very competitive. At that time there was very little polarization and competition. Now both are high and, in this context, when it comes to voting, people who thought they might support a local party often end up supporting a traditional party instead.”

 

[Velasco]

How bad is the depopulation problem in rural Spain?
Where is it worst? Teruel?

It is a very serious problem and affects all the inland countryside regions, being particularly intense in central Spain. Over the past 50 years Spain has lost 28% of its rural population.  There are some 6,800 villages in Spain with less than 5,000 inhabitants and many inland areas have extremely low population densities. Possibly Soria and Teruel are the most depopulated provinces, but there are many others in the list*. Population ageing is also a matter of concern in a country with one of the lowest birth rates in the world

*The 'Emptied Spain' comprises 23 provinces fulfilling two criteria:

a) Population density below national average
b) Population loss between 1950 and current year

These provinces represent more than 1/2 of the land area, but only 17% of the population (some 8.2 million). They return more than 1/4 of seats in Congress, namely 92 distributed as follows: PSOE 41 (of 120), PP 34 (89), Vox 14 (52), UP 2 (35) and Teruel Existe 1 (1)

The list of provinces  by region is the following:

Galicia (2); Lugo and Ourense
Castilla y León (9): Ávila, Burgos, León, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria, Valladolid and Zamora
Aragón (3): Huesca, Teruel and Zaragoza
La Rioja (1)
Castilla-La Mancha (4): Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca and Guadalajara
Extremadura (2): Badajoz and Cáceres
Andalucía (2): Córdoba and Jaén

Spanish Police chief alleges that Spanish intelligence conducted a 2017 terrorist attack

Uhhhh, can someone explain this?

That Villarejo is a jailed corrupt policeman and most of his allegations are deemed fake news

[Velasco]

GAD3 for El Norte de Castilla

PP 40.8% 38-39
PSOE 29.1% 27-28
Vox 13.1% 9-10
UP 6 0% 2-3
UPL 2.9% 2
CS 2.6% 0-1
Soria Ya* 0.7% 1

* Soria Ya is part of the Emptied Spain platform, which is running in other 4 provinces. The movement is consolidated in Soria and it's likeky to win 1 or even 2 seats.The lack of implementation and connection to the local constituencies play against  the Empted Spain in other provinces where is running with improvised lists

In case the PP gets a result 2 or 3 seats short of a majority,  Mañueco could avert a coalition deal with Vox seeking the support of the Leonese regionalists (UPL) or Soria Ya, or the abstention of these groups in a second investiture vote