Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

Well, no. I wouldn't say that Más Madrid is regionalist in a traditional sense, even though Errejón is sympathetic with the notion of of "plurinational" state and speaks Catalan fluently. The case of Adelante Andalucía is different.

The Andalusian regionalism was relevant in the past, particularly the Andalusian Socialist Party (PSA) during the first years of the transition (late 1970s and early 1980s) with leaders like Alejandro Rojas-Marcos. The PSA won 5 seats in the 1979 general elections and even contested the first elections to the Parliament of Catalonia in 1980, winning two seats thanks to the vote of people with Andalusian ascent in the Barcelona 's 'red belt'. The decadence began in 1982 with the PSOE landslide in general elections. The Andalusian regionalists lost representation in Congress in 1982; later they regained 2 seats in 1989 and 1 seat in 2000. However the rebranded Andalusian Party (PA, 1984) still achieved some successes, retaining its status of parliamentary force at regional level and even participating in coalition governments led by the Socialist Manuel Chaves (1996-2004). The PA also governed important cities in Andalusia, including the Pedro Pacheco's stronghold of Jerez, the port town of Algeciras and even Sevilla (the aforementioned Rojas-Marcos was mayor of the Andalusian capital between 1991 and 1995, in coalition with the PP). With the turn of the century the PA became increasingly irrelevant, losing parliamentary status in the 2008 regional elections. The PA was dissolved in 2015.

Adelante Andalucía was initially the brand for the coalition between Podemos, IU and small left-wing regionalist parties ( partly PA remnants). I think that AA was registered as a political party by Teresa Rodríguez or her supporters. Teresa Rodríguez was the Podemos regional leader and candidate, as well as one of the leading figures of the Anticapitalistas faction (they were like the Trots within Podemos, the far-left wing) Disagreements over the participation in the coalition government led by Pedro Sánchez, as well as the unwillingness of Pablo Iglesias to grant AA independent status (similar to that of the ECP in Catalonia) , led to the departure of Anticapitalistas. Now Teresa Rodriguez and her supporters tare trying to launch a left-wing regionalist party with a strong focus on Andalusian identity using the Adelante. Andalucía trademark. The relationship within the AA parliamentary group between the Rodriguez faction, Podemos and IU is strained and rather confusing. The departure of Rodríguez allowed Pablo Iglesias to take full control of the Podemos regional organization in Andalusia, though. Podemos, IU and AA could even try to form a new coalition, who knows

[Velasco]

Chaos in Madrid: deputy premier Aguado asks central givernment for help. Pedro Sánchez offers a face-to-face meeting with premier Ayuso at regional government HQs in Puerta del Sol. Ayuso accepts the offer and is expected to announce measures to tackle the outbreaks right now

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-17/madrid-calls-on-central-government-for-help-amid-chaotic-management-of-worsening-coronavirus-situation.html

The deputy premier of Madrid, Ignacio Aguado, on Thursday called on the central government to “actively get involved” in efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus in the region. The politician from center-right party Ciudadanos (Citizens) held a news conference during which he recognized that “the situation of the epidemic in Madrid is not going well. It is getting worse. We are going to have to make greater efforts.”

(...)

 Shortly after Aguado’s public statements, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez sent a letter to Madrid regional premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso, of the PP, to suggest a face-to-face meeting at her office. On Friday afternoon, authorities announced that the Sánchez-Ayuso meeting will take place at noon on Monday at the headquarters of the Madrid regional government  

[Velasco]

Could you make an actual contribution please, instead of just obsessively posting tweets about podemos?

The funny thing is that most tweets are in Spanish and this is?an Anglo forum. This one says that Podemos and Más Madrid are supporting protests against the restrictions to mobility announced yesterday by the Madrid premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso. I know that both parties have protested because restrictions are selective and affect primarily low income areas south of Madrid. The management of the coronavirus crisis by the regional government is regarded chaotic by nearly everybody. You cimplain about how bad is BoJo because you know very little about our Ayuso

"Madrid announces new restrictions on mobility to curb spike in Covid-19 cases"

 https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-18/madrid-announces-new-restrictions-on-mobility-to-curb-spike-in-covid-19.html

 The Madrid regional government on Friday announced new restrictions aimed at curbing the rising number of coronavirus cases in the region. The order will go into effect on Monday and last for at least 14 days.

The restrictions on mobility affect people living within 37 basic health areas, of which 26 are located in six districts of the city of Madrid, and the rest in other municipalities in the Madrid region. People will be allowed in and out for essential activities such as going to school or work, or to care for dependents. Social gatherings are reduced to six people and public parks will remain closed. Capacity at stores and other commercial establishments is set at 50% and closing time is 10pm with the exception of pharmacies and gas stations.

The affected areas are home to around 855,193 people or 17% of the population of the Madrid region, although they account for 25% of detected coronavirus cases. “We are aware that if don’t take these measures, the situation will be worse in a few days," said the deputy premier of the Madrid region, Ignacio Aguado.

A basic health area is much smaller than a city district and can include several primary healthcare centers. There are around 286 basic health areas in the Madrid region, according to the regional health department.

Affected municipalities besides the capital are Fuenlabrada (the health areas of Alicante, Cuzco and Francia), Parla (San Blas and Isabel II), San Sebastián de los Reyes (Reyes Católicos), Getafe (Las Margaritas and Sánchez Morate), Alcobendas (Chopera and Miraflores) and the entire towns of Humanes and Moraleja de Enmedio.

In the city of Madrid, the affected health areas are located in the city districts of Carabanchel (the health areas of Puerta Bonita, Vista Alegre and Guayaba), Usera (Almendrales, Las Calesas, Zofío, Orcasur and San Fermín), Villaverde (San Andrés, San Cristóbal, El Espinillo and Los Rosales), Villa de Vallecas, Puente de Vallecas (Entrevías, Martínez de la Riva, San Diego, Numancia, Peña Prieta, Pozo del Tío Raimundo, Ángela Uriarte, Alcalá de Guadaira and Federica Montseny), and Ciudad Lineal (Doctor Cirajas, Ghandi, Daroca and La Elipa). t
  

As said before most of the municipalities, districts, and areas listed above are low income and located south.

Madrid is the epicenter of the crisis in Spain

 After it was badly hit during the first wave, Madrid has once again become the epicenter of the coronavirus crisis in Spain. According to the latest epidemiological monitoring report published on Thursday by the Spanish Health Ministry, the average incidence of the coronavirus in the last 14 days in the Madrid region came in at 659 cases per 100,000 people. This is more than double the national average of 260 cases.  

[Velasco]

More news from Madrid, sorry.

Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez and Madrid premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso met yesyerday.

Sánchez: "Together we will prevail. This is an epidemiological battle, not an ideological one"

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-09-21/spanish-pm-meets-madrid-chief-over-covid-19-measures-warns-of-very-tough-weeks-ahead.html

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez on Monday warned about the need to consider “other scenarios” and warned of “very tough weeks up ahead” as the coronavirus epidemic continued to escalate in the Madrid region.

Speaking after a face-to-face meeting with Madrid regional premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso to coordinate measures against the spread of the coronavirus, Sánchez indirectly alluded to the state of alarm that kept Spaniards mostly confined to their homes between mid-March and mid-June.

“We must be prepared to consider other scenarios if necessary,” said the leader of the Socialist Party (PSOE), who heads a minority government in coalition with the leftist Unidas Podemos. Sánchez added that because of its situation and characteristics, “Madrid needs a special plan.”  

There were protests in the Madrid areas affected by lockdowns. Protesters deem the measures arbitrary and discriminatory (my beloved Errejón adds they are not based on scientific approach). Madrid premier Ayuso and mayor Almeida say it's no time to protest, but both approved the demonstrations against the Sánchez government that took place in the affluent Salamanca district during the first corinavirus wave.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-21/protestors-take-to-the-streets-to-oppose-new-selective-lockdowns-in-areas-of-madrid-calling-for-regional-premier-to-quit.html

Several demonstrations took place over the weekend in Madrid in protest at the regional government’s plans to impose selective coronavirus confinements due to the rising numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths that are being registered in the area.

After a protest on Friday evening in the capital’s central Puerta de Sol square, Sunday saw thousands of people take to the streets in a wave of demonstrations in many of the 37 areas of the city of Madrid and the surrounding region where, from Monday onward, there will be restrictions on mobility.

Called to protest by organizations from a number of neighborhoods, with instructions to wear masks and to respect social distancing, the demonstrators denounced the regional government’s plans as “ineffective and discriminatory,” claiming that they were focused on southern satellite cities such as Fuenlabrada and humble, working-class neighborhoods. They also called for greater investment and resources for local healthcare centers and for public transportation.

Today the English version of El País is full of headlines concerning the situation in Maadrid. You may think there's a conspiracy against Ayuso, but that's not my fault

"Covid-19 incidence exceeds 1,000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 16 areas of Madrid with no new restrictions "

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-22/covid-19-incidence-exceeds-1000-cases-per-100000-inhabitants-in-16-areas-of-madrid-with-no-new-restrictions.html

"Health Ministry reports 31,000 new coronavirus cases detected this weekend, a third of them in Madrid"

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-22/health-ministry-reports-31000-new-coronavirus-cases-detected-this-weekend-a-third-of-them-in-madrid.html

[Velasco]

Even if Velasco were actually a PSOE or Podemos hack (hint: he isn't)

I try not being a hack. but I don't hide my ideology and opinions. I have stated in this thread that I had certain sympathy for Errejón, but ended voting tactically for one of the parties of the coalition government. I don't feel very enthusiastic with the government, which coronavirus record has arguably more errors than successes. The problem is that the opposition is much worse. I have criticized the aggressive tone of Pablo Casado (that's expected in Santiago Abascal) because I think in times of crisis we need unity and constructive attitude. Aside the national leaders. the ,main antagonists to the central government have been Catalan premier Quim Torra and Madrid premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso. Both have accused the Sánchez government of bad management and authoritarianism, but when the government left room to the regional governments to act in their own (it was an error, because deescalation should have been more gradual) both Torra and Ayuso have demonstrated great incompetence. The result is that Torra refuses to call elections in Catalonia because Junts is fearing to lose, while Ayuso is asking for help to the central government after her harsh attacks. She has every right to demand support from the cetral government, but she did nothing in previous months to reinforce the health system in advance of the second wave- let alone the chaos in schools-. As journalist Iñaki Gabilondo says, neither Sánchez nor Ayuso have reasons to feel proud and should be more humble. What is certain is that this is no time for cultural wars.

You should participate in discussions more frequently, Julio.

I will add that, while Madrid does have the worst numbers and is therefore more deserving of attention, Spanish media (and this goes for both conservative and left leaning media) does have a big problem of being too Madrid-centric in most cases, so Madrid gets an oversized amount of attention.

My theory is that this is caused because 90% of national Spanish media are based off of Madrid; with the only real exceptions I know of being La Vanguardia and El Periódico (both based in Barcelona, and they tend to cater more to a Catalan audience)

But unless Velasco is secretly the head of El Mundo or something, I doubt that he is responsible for that bias

I'm editing El Mundo in my spare time, that's the reason why he newspaper is now called The Carmena's Village Voice, or The Bolivarian Gazette

[Velasco]

Flash update. Supreme Court bars Catalan premier from office for disobedience

https://english.elpais.com/politics/catalonia_independence/2020-09-28/spanish-supreme-court-bars-catalan-premier-from-public-office-for-disobedience.html

The Spanish Supreme Court on Monday upheld an 18-month ban from public office handed down to Catalan premier Quim Torra for disobedience. The unanimous sentence is definitive and means that Torra will have to step down as premier, paving the way for a fresh institutional crisis in Catalonia.

The Catalan High Court – which first found the Catalan premier guilty of the accusations – has already begun the process to execute the sentence and has notified Torra’s attorney that the politician is barred from office from today onward.

On December 19, the Catalan High Court found Torra, a hard-line supporter of Catalan independence, guilty of disobedience for failing to remove banners supporting jailed separatist leaders from public buildings during campaigning ahead of the 2018 municipal and European elections. The Catalan premier was ordered to take down the signs by Spain’s National Electoral Board (JEC), which argued they violated the rules on maintaining neutrality during election campaigns.

The Catalan High Court barred Torra from public office for 18 months and ordered him to pay a fine of €30,000 and the legal costs of the trial. Torra appealed the decision at the Supreme Court, but on Monday, its magistrates upheld the sentence, arguing that the Catalan premier had “stubbornly and obstinately” refused to observe the orders from the JEC.

In the lead up to the May 26 elections, Torra refused to take down a banner from the Palau de la Generalitat, the seat of the Catalan government, which carried messages calling for the release of the politicians and civic association leaders involved in the 2017 secessionist drive in Catalonia. These individuals were being held in custody while their trial for offenses including sedition and misuse of funds was heard in the Supreme Court. In October of last year, the defendants were found guilty and nine of them were given lengthy prison sentences.

Torra also refused to remove esteladas – the unofficial flag adopted by supporters of Catalan independence – and yellow ribbons – a symbol of support for the jailed separatist leaders – from buildings belonging to the regional government.

The Supreme Court’s decision means that Torra will be barred for 18 months from both public office, be it at a local, regional, state or European level, and from local, regional and national government (...)  

I've been busy with other affairs and don't know the details of the deal between coalition partners JxCAT and ERC atm. I heard that deputy premier Pere Aragonés (ERC) will take the role of "interim president"  Elections in Catalonia could take place on Febriary 7, 2021.

Ayuso wars. "Government intervention of Madrid looms as regional administration refuses to implement stricter coronavirus measures "

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-28/government-intervention-of-madrid-looms-as-regional-administration-refuses-to-implement-stricter-coronavirus-measures.html

The Spanish government and the Madrid regional administration are currently engaged in last-minute negotiations in a bid to avoid the former from intervening in the latter, given the resistance of the region’s premier, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, to implement stricter coronavirus measures despite having the worst infection rates in Europe.

The government of Socialist Party (PSOE) Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been preparing a way to strengthen the restrictions across Madrid, after it emerged on Friday that the regional government – run by the conservative Popular Party (PP) in coalition with center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens) and propped up by far-right Vox – had rejected the recommendations of the Health Ministry to combat the spread of the coronavirus in the region, and was limiting itself to rolling out existing restrictions in 37 basic healthcare areas to a handful of other zones (...)  

Leaving aside the endless Catalan conundrum and the battle over Madrid, the govern)met faces the hostility of the General Council of the Judiciary (which renewal is blocked by the PP). The council's chairman Carlos Lesmes leaked that king Felipe phoned and said that he would liked to attend the appointment of a new promotion in judges, which takes place annually in Barcelona with the presence of the head of state and all the general council members. The problem is that the event was going to coincide with the Supreme Couurt rule on Torra, so the government asked the judiciary to postpone it. Given that the government couldn't secure that the event and the rule were on different dates, the presence of king Felipe was banned in order to not exposing the head of state to public disturbances (I get there was no concern on the king's security, but on not worsening his negative image in Catalonia). Leaving aside the usual communication errors of the government, the indiscretion and the animosity of the conservative judge Lesmes look pretty obvious. The king's household racted saying that king Felipe made a courtesy call to Lesmes and they hold an informal conversation without political implications. However, Consumer Affairs minister Alberto Garzón openly criticized the king interpreting he was meddling in the conflict, as well as deputy premier Pablo Iglesias in a less overt manner. Opposition leader Pablo casado reacted demnding the resignation of Garzón and accusing the government of mistreatment to the king's figure.

The qestion is that, at this juncture, the burden of the state settles on the shoulders of Pedro Sánchez and the PSOE and nobody knows how resistent they are...

There have been some rotests on Catalonia, although not as serious as the protests after the rule that imprisoned the leaders of the (sort of) unilateral secession attempt

I enjoyed reading this profile of the "militant president" Torra in La Vamgiardia, on the other hand. Among other things, I discovered that he worked for a Swiss insurance company and lived in Switzerland for more than a year. Spanish, sorry

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20200928/483650956311/quim-torra-perfil-president-generalitat-activista.html

[Velasco]

Pere Aragones, who is acting as caretaker premier, points that elections in Catalonia could take place on February 14 next year

Ayuso Wars. "New coronavirus restrictions in Madrid will be implemented tonight despite regional court appeal"

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-02/new-coronavirus-restrictions-in-madrid-will-be-implemented-tonight-despite-regional-court-appeal.html

The Madrid regional government today filed an appeal at Spain’s High Court, the Audiencia Nacional, against the measures that the Health Ministry has introduced across Spain in a bid to halt the spread of the coronavirus. The Madrid premier, Isabel Díaz Ayuso of the conservative Popular Party (PP), has opted for legal action that includes an injunction that could suspend the new restrictions within the next 10 days, despite them having been voted for by a majority of Spain’s regions on Wednesday. The restrictions are due to be applied from 10pm on Friday in municipalities of more than 100,000 residents where certain requisites are met.

As it did during the first wave, Madrid has once again become the epicenter of the coronavirus crisis in Spain, and according to the latest Health Ministry data, currently accounts for 35% of new cases despite having just 14% of the country’s population. 

[Velasco]

Spanish government declares state of alarm in the region of Madrid

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-10-09/spanish-cabinet-declares-state-of-alarm-in-madrid-region-in-bid-to-slow-spread-of-coronavirus.html

The Spanish Cabinet on Friday decided to declare a state of alarm in the Madrid region for a 15-day period, in a bid to get coronavirus infections under control. It did so despite the fierce opposition of the regional government, which has been resisting the central administration’s calls in recent weeks to implement stricter measures to control the epidemic. The restrictions will be applied in the municipalities of Alcobendas, Alcorcón, Fuenlabrada, Getafe, Leganés, Madrid, Móstoles, Parla and Torrejón de Ardoz.

A legal and political battle over how to contain the virus while protecting the economy has been openly playing out between the central government, headed by a center-left coalition of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos, and the Madrid regional government, run by a center-right alliance of the Popular Party (PP) and Ciudadanos (Citizens), propped up by the far-right Vox.

New measures were agreed on last week by a majority of the country’s regions, and involved a perimetral confinement for municipalities with more than 100,000 residents should a series of criteria be met, as well as other rules such as early closing times for establishments and limited capacity in bars and restaurants. Last Friday, amid the opposition of the regional government, 10 cities in Madrid – those listed above, plus Alcalá de Henares, which has not been removed from the list due to an improvement in its coronavirus data – saw the measures introduced.

But the Madrid High Court on Thursday struck down the confinement measures in the government’s restrictions, meaning that the 4,786,948 Madrileños who had been subject to the lockdowns in their municipalities were free to move around once more and could not be fined for doing so. The court ruled that the government could not limit the fundamental right of freedom of movement without resorting to a state of alarm. The Castilla y León High Court, however, today ratified the implementation of the same measures in the municipalities of León, Palencia and San Andrés del Rabanedo.

Article 116 of the Spanish Constitution describes three legal categories for emergency situations: a state of alarm, state of emergency and state of siege (in Spanish: estado de alarma, estado de excepción and estado de sitio). It was the first of these scenarios that was implemented by the central government on a nationwide basis in March, at the outset of the pandemic, and that was used to lock down residents of Spain in their homes to flatten the curve of the coronavirus. In this case, the government has made clear that the restrictions will not be as severe: they will just be applied to the Madrid region, and will involve the aforementioned perimetral confinement of municipalities, along with other previously implemented measures aimed at reducing social contact.

According to La Moncloa prime ministerial palace, after returning late last night from a visit to Algeria, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the PSOE called the regional premier of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso of the PP, to offer her three possible ways out. Her administration could either implement restrictions based on a 1986 public health law; it could request the declaration of a state of alarm, so that the central and regional governments implement it on a joint basis; or the Spanish government would unilaterally declare the state of alarm, without the need for the regional authorities to previously file a request to do so. Sánchez gave Ayuso until 12pm today to come up with a response (...)

Spain is more than Madrid, Barcelona, the Catalan conundrum and the Ayuso Wars. There are regions that are performing better and get little media coverage such as Asturias, Galicia, Valencia or the Canary Islands.

 Valencia premier Ximo Puig would win regional elections handlily. According to a poll released by Levante EMV, the left bloc would strengthen its majority from 52 to 60 seats (out of 99)

PSOE 36 (32.7%)
PP 21 (19.6%)
Compromís 15 (14.8%)
VOX 11 (11.1%)
UP 9 (9.9%)
Cs 7 (7.5%)

A DYM poll released by 20 minutos shows premier Ayuso losing ground to the benefit of VOX. The PSOE would win the elections again and Más Madrid matches the May 2019 results, but the left bloc would fall short of a majority (Left 63-64 / Right 68-69). Cs is still holding the key, having to opt between the PSOE and the PP with the increasing VOX influence. The VOX regional leader Rocío Monasterio is remarkably smarter than premier Ayuso, which is not a common trait in the far-wight party and makes her potentially more dangerous. Monasterio is wife of the VOX spokesman in Congress Iván Espinosa de los Monteros.

PSOE 38/39 (28.5%)
PP 33 (24.3%)
MM 19 (14.0%)
Cs 18/19 (13.9%)
VOX 17 (12.7%)
UP 6 (5.1%)

[Velasco]

Today is the Spain's National Holiday

According to a 40dB poll commissioned by a platform of independent media, 40.9% would support the republic and only 34.9% the monarchy in a referendum. The poll asks questions about other issues like interest in politics or habits of consuming political news. I'll post only the results related to monarchy and democracy.

- Value the importance of living in a country with  democratic regime (0-10 scale): average response rate is 8.7

- Value your level of satisfaction with the functioning of democracy in Spain (0-10 scale): average response 4.5

- Value your level of satisfaction with the monarchy in Spain (0-10 scale): average response 4.6

Trust in the institutions (0-10 scale):

Parliament 4.2, Armed Forces 6.2, Monarchy 4.3, Parties 3.0, Catholic Church 3.2, Judiciary 4.7, Media 4.3, Trade Unions 3.7

- Do you think it's necessary a constitutional reform? Yes 71.9%, No 13.8%, Don't Know 14.2%

- - Do you think it's necessary a referendum on monarchy? Yes 47.8%, No 36.1%, Don't Know 16.1%

- What Would you vote in a referendum between monarchy and republic?

Monarchy 34.9%, Republic 40.9%, Blank 4.9%, Won't Vote 6.4%, Don't Know 12.9%

Monarchy / Republic breakdown by party

PSOE 29.9 / 55.0, PP 76.0 /11.0, VOX 79.2 / 9.6, UP 2.0 / 91.0, Cs 59.8 / 23.5

Andalusia: Monarchy 41.1%, Republic 31.5%
Catalonia: Monarchy 14.6%, Republic 66.5%
Madrid: Monarchy 46.3%, Republic 32.2%
Valencian Community: Monarchy 37.0%, Republic 32.4%

As you can see, monarchy is highly divisive and the cleavage is both ideological and geographical. Also, Spaniards believe in democracy but not in their institutions. Highly disturbing but unsurprising results.

This is an internet poll and the sample size is 3000. The 40 dB pollster is headed by Belén Barreiro, a prestigious sociologist who once directed the CIS. It usually works for El País



https://es.scribd.com/document/479571924/Informe-monarqui-a-PMI-2020#from_embed

[Velasco]

Today the conservative paper La Razón releases a NC Report poll that says the opposite of the DYM poll posted earlier. Ayuso landslide!

PP 45 (33.1%)
PSOE 37 (26.9%)
Cs 18/19 (13.9%)
MM 16 (12.1%)
VOX 11 (8.7%)
UP 7 (5.4%)

The right bloc would get almost 55% of the vote and the controversial Ayuso would be strengthened. If I was her, I'd call a snap election now. The question is wether this poll is accurate or it's just as friendly with Isabel Díaz Ayuso as the CIS is friendly with Pedro Sánche<

[Velasco]

Is a snap election the best tactical choice for Ayuso? There's a chance voting preferences are skewed because of the impact of the pandemic in Madrid. No guarantee how things will look from now until a hypothetical election is held.

I'd call a snap election if the NC Report poll was true, but of course there's a lot of uncertainty and no guarantees of success. The point is that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic comes along with a tough polítical battle, which responds to a deliberate strategy (fingers point to Miguel Angel Rodriguez, a former advisor of Aznar who works for Ayuso). In addition, the telationship between the coalition partners PP and Cs is increasingly strained, partly because of growing chaos and confrontation. It was rumoured that Ayuso was planning to call elections earlier this year, but Pablo Casado stopped her. Ayuso could still move forward in case she suspects Cs is tempted to switch alliances. But a snap election is a hazardous move, not only because of the uncertain electoral result. The PP could also risk the coalition governments in other regions that are more stable: Andalusia, Castilla y León and Murcia. I don't think thay Ayuso has the full support of the PP's nacional leadership rught now, and for sure she has not the support of the other governing regional leaders. On the other hand, my intuition tells me that playing the game of Trump and Bolsonaro benefits VOX and not the PP.

Also, despite the claims of Ayuso, I don't think the central government was willing to intervene in Madrid. On the contrary, it was forced to take control because of the deliberate attitude of Ayuso. The Sanchez government is fully aware that it's lacking the parliamentary support to extend the state of alarm in Madrid, on case the situation does not improve.

[Velasco]

Worth noting Madrid is one of the regions of Spain that, even if it calls a snap election, the new parliament's term will be shortened to whenever the current parliament would expire.

So while Ayuso could call a snap election now, she'd still need to face the voters in 2023. Which is kind of pointless imo but whatever.

Calling elections would make sense in order to prevent that Cs supports a no confidence motion against Isabel Diaz Ayuso. Ignacio Aguado and Cs are very uncomfortable, but they don't want a snap election and try to appease Ayuso. On the other hand, I don't believe in a PP landslide because I'm not Paco Marhuenda. I think the political climate favors Rocio Monasterio.

I hear the no confidence motion sponsored by VOX against Pedro Sánchez is scheduled on October 21 and 22. PP and Cs won't support it. The far-right party aims to capitalize the fear, unrest and increasing polarization

[Velasco]

The reform proposed by the government is a terrible idea, but the corporativist solution is equally bad. In the end the main culprit is the PP, which is breaching the Constitución in delaying the replacement if the council members for spurious motivations. However, the government is going to make a big mistake going forward with this proposal .

Spain is by no means comparable to Turkey, Poland or Hungary. That's a nonsense. It's true that most of the members of the judiciary are conservative and there are some ideologybiased elements that have declared war on the government. However, it's worth noting that there are judges regarded conservative that refuse to engage in political wars and try to act with the professionaljty and impartiality they are supposed to have.

Yesterday the Supreme Court confirmed convictions in Gürtel graft case

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-10-14/spains-supreme-court-confirms-convictions-in-gurtel-graft-case.html

confirmed 29 convictions handed down in 2018 against leading members of Gürtel, a corrupt bribes-for-contracts network that operated across six Spanish regions between 1999 and 2005.

Justices have also backed the national High Court (Audiencia Nacional)'s decision declaring the Popular Party (PP) civilly liable in connection with the case, and telling it to return €245,000 obtained through unlawful channels.  

The news is not updated on this point

 But the Supreme Court has also found that the Audiencia Nacional’s wording was “excessive” when it repeatedly mentioned the PP’s “caja B,” a reference to a parallel accounting system allegedly maintained by the conservative party for years.  

Later the Supreme Court released a statement correcting that. The rule does not find "rxcessive" the mebtiobs to the "cala B" (parallel accounting). It' s in ny the separate opinión if one if the justices. However, that apparent mistake was?enough for the PP to launch a counter atrack, claining that the motion if no confidence ahainstMariano Rajoy was based on a false premise. Even Rajoy broke his silence supporting that claim. But leaving aside a separate vote, the rule if Supreme Court does not say a word about the aforementioned "caja B". Ny understanding is that issue is being investigated in a separate case

Ayuso Wars. Lamentable spectacle in Congress; stifling political atmosphere, in the words of Economy minister Nadia Calviño. PP andandVox Vox, alongside the incredible Madrid premier, accuse the government of authoritarianism. If doesn't matter if Paris, Berlín or whatever EU capital implement restrictions with less cases than Madrid.

Health minister Salvador Illa said yesterday the situarlon In the Spain's capital is "worrying, unstable and fragile"

 https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-10-15/spanish-health-minister-on-pandemic-the-situation-is-worrying-unstable-and-fragile.html

Public health is the only thing that is prompting the Spanish government to act, and that is why measures must be taken to avoid new coronavirus infections and flatten the curve. That was the argument cited by the health minister, Salvador Illa, during a session in Spain’s lower house of parliament today to justify the declaration on Friday of a state of alarm in Madrid, despite the fierce opposition of the regional government there to such a move.

Illa was required by the Constitution to appear in the Congress of Deputies in order to explain the decision taken by the coalition government, which is headed up by the Socialist Party (PSOE) and supported by junior partner Unidas Podemos. There was no vote required on the state of alarm in Congress today, but the support of deputies will be needed should the government opt to extend it beyond this initial two-week period (...)

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez warned this morning from Brussrls that he will go forward with the judicial reform plans, unless the PP accepts to negotiate the renewal of the General Council

 https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-10-16/spain-defends-its-judicial-reform-plans-despite-warning-from-brussels.html

 
The European Commission has warned Spain against its plan to reform the way appointments are made to its judicial regulatory body, the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ). Brussels says the move could endanger judicial independence and exacerbate the impression that the Spanish judiciary may be “vulnerable to politicization.”

The Spanish government has not officially responded, but in private it has said that the plan will not be altered. Sources at La Moncloa, the seat of government, said that Brussels has not understood the reform adequately, and that the Spanish executive will clarify how it wants to change the way members are elected to the body that oversees the independence of judges.

 The European Union has long been urging Spain to renew the membership of the CGJP, where appointments have been on hold since 2018 due to to insufficient parliamentary support. Under current legislation, appointments require a qualified majority of three-fifths of lawmakers in both chambers of parliament.

The reform would maintain the need for a three-fifths majority, but add the possibility of a second round of voting 48 hours later that would only require an absolute majority. In the 350-seat Congress, this would mean 176 affirmative votes in the second round instead of 210 required in the first.

The budget plan submitted by the Spanish government forecasts a 33 4 billion increase in revenues, including a 6 8 billion increase in taxt revenues

 https://english.elpais.com/economy_and_business/2020-10-16/spanish-government-planning-to-increase-taxes-by-6-billion-in-2021.html

After the devastating effects that the coronavirus crisis has had on the Spanish economy, the government is predicting that there will soon be light at the end of the tunnel. According to a budget plan sent to Brussels on Thursday, public revenues will rise by €33.4 billion in 2021 thanks to a sharp rebound in gross domestic product that is forecast, and the introduction of new fiscal measures including a hike on sales tax of sugary drinks and a “plastic tax.”

The pandemic has prompted the Spanish government – a coalition of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and junior partner Unidas Podemos – to put the “extensive fiscal reforms” it had planned on hold. But there will be tax changes next year, as Finance Minister María Jesús Montero had already announced. According to the plan sent to Brussels on Thursday, these will boost revenues by €6.8 billion in 2021 and €2.3 billion in 2022. Not including a new law combatting tax fraud, which is expected to bring in around €830 million a year, revenues will be boosted by around €6 billion in 2021 and €8.4 billion over the two years combined.  

Some experts deem the forecast too optimistic. The deails of the tax changes have not been disclosed yet

On the other hand, there are clouds in the horizon concerning blocks or delays to the EU reconstruction funds. The proposed reform to unblock the renewal of the General Council of the Judiciary comes in a bad moment, as it gives ammunition to the Polish and Hungarian governments in their opposition to be closely scrutinized.

The PP has been campaigning in Brussels against the Spanish government, while refuses to renew the Council and voted against a resolution of the EU parliament in support of the threatened independence of the judiciary in Poland

[Velasco]

Today we'll have a mud shower.

What you need to know about the Vox's motion of no confidence

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-10-21/voxs-motion-of-no-confidence-against-the-government-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-two-day-debate.html

No one knows how far the coronavirus pandemic will spread, and equally no one knows just how high the political tension will rise in Spain. With talk this week of a possible curfew in a bid to curb infection rates, today will see the Congress of Deputies immersed in its everyday battles, albeit dressed up with the solemnity of an extraordinary debate: a motion of no confidence tabled against the prime minister, the fifth in Spain’s democratic history.

After months of fomenting protests and animosity in the streets, far-right party Vox – currently the third-biggest group in Spain’s lower house of parliament – this morning began a debate that will last two days, and will see its deputies take to the podium to proclaim that the group is an alternative to the current government, a coalition of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and junior partner Unidas Podemos. Vox and its leader, Santiago Abascal, are viewing their motion of no confidence as a springboard, but the effects could be contradictory: the vote, which is almost certainly guaranteed to fail due to a lack of support among deputies, is likely to divide the opposition and push the government and its partners – the coalition lacks a working majority in Congress – to put aside their differences.  

Yesterday we had our dose of garbage in parliament with the PP focused on attacking Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero, the Podemos leading couple. The most shameful to hear was a PP female senator asking Equality minister Irene Montero, "from one woman to another", if she was ashamed to share her bed with an alleged male chauvinist (Pablo Iglesias). Montero replied that she shares her bed with whom she wants, because thankfully she's in a position to do so. She added that, due to PP's intolerance and discriminatory policies, many women and non-heterosexuals are not allowed to have a lifetime project.

Add these vicious attacks in parliament with the harassment that Iglesias and Montero have been suffering at their home by far-right activists. When the expression of ideological differences crosses the red line and turns into personal attacks, invasion of privacy and physical bullying, something is going wrong with our democracy.

Right now the rightwing opposition is a serious national problem. On the other hand, this motion of no confidence is actually a dramatization of the contest for the leadership of the Spanish Right. No matter that we are amidst a huge national crisis, we are doomed to suffer another lamentable spectacle with loads of garbage

[Velasco]

17% for Vox in that poll - thought they were on a downward trend not so long ago?

They have reversed the trend in the last months, proving that the climate of polarization favors the extremes. I'd say that the PP is following a wrong strategy, but it' s clear that Pablo Casado and Isabel Diaz Ayuso prefer Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro to Angela Merkel

[Velasco]

By the moment, the parliamentary debate is extremely boring. Santiago Abascal is totally devoid of rhetoric brilliance and does not have a single original idea. Journalists following the whole speech note that Abascal hasn't been interrupted at all during his initial exposition, full of abhorrent statements against immigrants, climate scepticism and the usual hateful things you can hear to Trump or Bolsonaro. This is temarkable, because interruptions from rightwing benches are usual in parliamentary debates in Spain. Errejón went viral recently asking them to keep quite, while saying they haven't been taught good manners in their private schools. The hardest thing against Abascal I heard so far is that the New Canaries deputy called him "fascist". Abascal replied to the EH Bildu spokeswoman reading the names of the 800+ ETA victims. Snooze Fest

Brilliant reply from PNV spokesman Aitor Esteban in 1 minute: "simpleton"

[Velasco]

Some tweeter copy-paste

https://twitter.com/Guerraeterna/status/1318840630240530433?s=19

https://twitter.com/EnricJuliana/status/1318843457734139904?s=19

https://twitter.com/AITOR_ESTEBAN/status/1318816315155546112?s=19

[Velasco]

Finally PP leader Pablo Casado reveals that his party will vote "No" to Santiago Abascal and launches an attack on VOX.

Defensive movement?

[Velasco]

Now Casado is claiming that Sánchez is a radical and his party represents moderation and common sense. He also said that Spain does not deserve a loony like Santiago Abascal and his rants against Europe and the "Chinese virus"

Moderation is always welcomed, even though it's inconsistent with Casado's previous speeches

Pablo Iglesias on stage

[Velasco]

Reactions to Casado's speech

Pedro Sánchez offers to stop the application of the controversial judicial reform, while he expects that Casado accepts for once to negotiate the renewal of the General Council of the Judiciary and other institutions

Vox announces a stop in the budget negotiation with the Andalusian government, warning that the PP can't govern the Spain's nist populated region without the far-right

[Velasco]

It's all over

The motion fails with the only support of the 52 Vox deputies

[Velasco]

The speech of Pablo Casado this morning was important, so here's a video for those who understand Spanish

And the reply from Pablo Iglesias

[Velasco]

It's all over

The motion fails with the only support of the 52 Vox deputies

As a certain "friend" of theirs might say - SAD!

Forgot to say there were 298 votes against and no abstentions

[Velasco]

Velasco sinceramente pienso que deberías guardarte tus "opiniones" infundadas, comprendo que es fácil decir cosas obviamente falsas ya que nadie aquí tiene conocimiento de España, además de otros 2 usuarios izquierdistas. Pero me preguntó si tú entusiasmo contra el acoso se aplicaba contra lo vivido por Cifuentes y Rita Barbera (¡Fue a una peluquería madre de dios!), los llamados "escraches" democráticos. Y sobre el "supuesto muchísimo" ya ni hablar, por fortuna muchos recordamos el "la azotaria hasta que sangrase".

Es fácil decir lo que quieras cuando nadie te replica nada pero para alguien que tiene el suficiente conocimiento, simplemente suenas como un hipócrita (Y si, el mensaje está en español porque es dirigido a ti y si realmente eres español, lo comprenderás sin problema).

Lo de "crisis nacional" sobra, en especial considerando los ataques de podemos a Rajoy con la pandemia de Ébola o los del Psoe a Aznar en los atentados del 11 de marzo.

No te confundas y creas que me falta capacidad para discutir con personas ideológicamente contrarias, y además sin recurrir al insulto. Cualquiera que visite las redes sociales y lea comentarios de gente de extrema derecha sabe cómo está el patio y cuál es el clima imperante. La gente de izquierdas o independentista que insulta o cae en provocacionesprovocaciones tampoco me inspira demasiado, a decir verdad

Nadie me verá nunca apoyar los "escraches" (una práctica importada de Argentina, por cierto) pero, sinceramente, los ejemplos que mencionas son caricias de monja comparados con el acoso que sufren actualmente Pablo Iglesias e Irene Montero por parte de la extrema derecha. Es intolerable que tengan que aguantar continuamente insultos, amenazas e improperios y que ni siquiera puedan disfrutar de unos días de vacaciones por el odio ideológico de los herederos de Franco. De la misma forma, las alusiones personales de la senadora del PP son repugnantes. Tanto Iglesias como Montero, que en algunos aspectos no son santos de mi devoción, están demostrando un aguante y una contención admirables ante la avalancha de odio.

Echa un vistazo a las intervenciones de Casado e iglesias está mañana y luego vuelve al discurso simplón, incoherente y lleno de odio de Santiago Abascal. Escucha el silencio respetuoso de la bancada de la izquierda cuando hablan Casado y Abascal, a pesar de los insultos. Vuelve después a la intervención de Iglesias y escucha cómo patalean algunos diputados de derechas. El contraste avergonzaria a cualquiera con un mínimo de honestidad intelectual. Y es que ya lo dice Íñigo Errejón, a algunos señoritos de Vox y del PP no les enseñaron modales en sus exclusivos colegios de pago.

No sé cómo se puede poner en duda que atravesamos una crisis global sin precedentes, que está afectando a este país de una forma más intensa que a otros. Lo que se necesita en momentos como estos es unidad de acción y no campañas de desestabilización irresponsables que agitan el odio y las bajas pasiones. Espero que el revolcón parlamentario de hoy tenga consecuencias y cruzo los dedos esperando que noviembre traiga buenas noticias de Estados Unidos

Remember that English is the language of this forum, in case you want to follow this discussion. Some people here is fluent in Spanish or have reading comprehension, but most forum members don't know what are we talking about