Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

The government saves the day passing state of alarm extension in Congress

178 Yes: PSOE, UP, Cs, PNV, MP, Compromis, CC, PRC, NC, Teruel Existe

75 No: VOX, ERC, JxCAT, CUP

97 Abstain: PP, Bildu, Navarra Suma

PP backed previous extensions, but Casado pressed the fragile coalition government threatening to vote against. This move, alongside ERC moving from abstention to No, forced Sánchez to negotiate with Cs and PNV. Finally Casado had to justify the PP abstention because of the concessions made by the government to Cs and PNV, which is weird. ERC voting against is possibly a consequence of competition with the other Catalan separatists, while its Basque partner Bildu abstained. The government's deal with Cs angered ERC on the one hand and Vox on the opposing side. Momentary relief for Sánchez and momentary tactical defeat for Casado. However, the government lacks a solid majority, as the Cs and PNV support is conditioned. Arrimadas said she's still in the opposition and the government has only 155 seats, but offers to negotiate a reconstruction budget. The situation is extremely complicated for Sánchez, even though he clearly works better under extreme pressure. Needless to say the economic perspective is gloomy and that's not his fault, but he will be dead by next year unless some relief cones from the outside...

This month the government could approve the so-called Vital Minimum Income, opposed by the right but necessary for the poorer fanilies under current circumstances

[Velasco]

Apparently there is a Spanish version of the Canada/Israel meme, so enjoy I suppose!

I am personally at the quad point between socialist, leftist cuñado, republican and europist

Why are the Basque Nationalists on the far right?

I have absolutely no idea tbh. I suppose that "because they care only about money" or something like that lol

Either way I did not make this.

How many Hapsburg nostalgics, CNT-FAI anarchists and Carlists remain in Spain nowadays? I would argue close to zero, even though I have met some anarchists (but they are very few). There are plenty of 'cuñados' and bad internet memes, that's for sure

36 different categories, so a few will be fairly niche by definition

Contemporary societies and markets are increasingly fragmented into multiple niches. My problem with this meme is simply that it's not very good. Some of the types are way too anachronistic, such as the Carlist, the CNT-FAI member and obviously the Falangist: they only exist as relics from the past (I was in awe when an old anarchist friend once told me that Durruti's FAI still exists!) The Francoist boomer or the Francoist elder make sense, as there's still people saying that life under Franco was better and that's possibly a VOX base of support. Some of the types are not very well pirtrayed, such as 'The Rojo'. The word 'rojo' means ''red'' and applies to all leftists or republicans, generally as a Francoist insult. 'Facha' is just the opposite to 'Rojo', it's a derogatory word equivalent to ''fascist'' used by leftists to insult Francoists and rightwingers. For instance Vox leader Santiago Abascal is deemed a ''facha'', although the Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias told him recently he's not a fascist but a ''parasite''. The expression 'cuñado' (brother in law) is not used to describe a hack as the meme says, but to ridiculize certain ignorant people talking like experts in all subjects and pontificating about everything. Of course a pandemic is an excellent occasion to show the epidemiologist inside every one of us (we don't have a clue actually, we are just pathetic 'cuñados')

[Velasco]

How likely is it that the budget will pass?  And if it fails will there be another election which could be dangerous if there is a second wave or do they just rollover the budget again from previous years which could problematic?  I think though after a vaccine is developed could be an election although doesn't look like either side would win a majority but things could change.

Budget: Hard to tell. Last vote in Congress showed ERC is distancing from the government and approaching that strange convergence between the Spanish right and the Puigdemont faction of Catalan separatism. On the other hand, the move made by Cs opens new possibilities to negotiate a 'reconstruction budget' and also with regards the European stage (Cs is still within the EU liberals), even though the Arrimadas support to the state of alarm extension is by no means the beginning of a stable alliance. With regards the PP-Cs coalition governments in some regions, they will remain in place. Right now there is a crisis within the Madrid regional goverment led by Isabel Diaz Ayuso and the relationship between partners is strained, but Cs is not going to break

Elections: I think that by no means a general election will take place without a vaccine, but without a budget passed it's hard to see the government lasting beyond 2021

As part of the agreement with the PNV, Basque elections could take place in July 2020. By the moment the Galicia premier is not seconding. In what regards Catslonia, ERC would like elections as soon as possible (Puigdemont and Torra are not interested at all and election date will be potponed as far as possible)

In the news: next week half of Spain will move to phase 1 of de-escalation, but Madrid and Barcelona will stay in phase 0. All regions except Catalonia and Castilla y León requested passing to the next phase. The administration has rejected the Madrid region’s request to transition to Phase 1, “opting to wait until its primary care detection system is more robust”

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-05-08/spanish-government-announces-areas-that-will-move-to-the-next-phase-of-coronavirus-deescalation-plan-on-monday.html

[Velasco]

75 No: VOX, ERC, JxCAT, CUP

That alliance needs to continue

These alignments are undoubtedly one of the wonders of Spanish politics

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-05-06/spanish-congress-approves-fourth-extension-to-state-of-alarm.html

Sánchez, who announced this morning that the country will have an official period of mourning for its Covid-19 victims “when most of the country is in Phase 1 of the deescalation,” sought to underscore his message that the state of alarm is necessary to defeat the coronavirus and that this legal tool is not encroaching on citizens’ freedoms.

“All rights remain intact, not a single liberty has been violated. Just two of them have been limited, freedom of movement and to ensure public health and save lives,” he said. “We need to limit freedom of movement a few weeks more.” Sánchez insisted this is meant to prevent the spread of the virus, not “as a ruse to curtail liberties.”

But his words did not appear to convince PP leader Casado, who announced that because of the government’s most recent concessions, his 88 lawmakers would abstain rather than cast no votes. Casado was highly critical of the government during his speech, telling Sánchez that “the exceptional situation does not allow for a constitutional dictatorship.”  

Pedro Sánchez has many flaws and he should treat better his parliamentary allies (he made the mistake to neglect dialogue with the Basque government, while ERC believed mistakenly the PNV was about to topple the government), but he's not a ''constitutional dictator'' in the fashion of Viktor Orban (whose authoritarianism Pablo Casado's party refuses to condemn)

[Velasco]

So about electomanía's ElectoPanel... I know it's not the best thing to have around because of the methodology (I think it's an open-access online poll), but they recently began publishing municipal-level estimates. I think it's interesting, even if you just think about the municipal numbers as just "educated guesses". Though they weren't too far off in the Nov. 2019 election.

Anyways, here's this week's poll. It shows the right with a decent lead: https://electomania.es/ep13my20

I don't trust Electomania, rven though they are sometimes spotted on (not always). They lack transparency and accountability, imo. GAD3 pollster is releasing a 'barometer' for the conservative ABC newspaper. Narciso Michavila leans to the right, but is a good professional

https://www.gad3.com/single-post/2020/05/11/Nueva-entrega-del-Barometro-ABCGAD3-11-de-mayo

It seems that Feijóo is considering to call elections in July alongside Urkullu, so anyway we'll have polls for Galicia and Basque Country and actual election results to comment

[Velasco]

Spanish government passed a decree aimed at combating judicial standstill. Interestingly the majority was secured with the ERC support and Cs opposition. As posted before, the last state of alarm extension was passed with Cs support and ERC opposition. However, the Arrimadas party backed a second decree. These changing parliamentary majorities are called 'variable geometry' in Spain

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-05-13/spain-passes-decree-aimed-at-combatting-standstill-in-justice-system-due-to-coronavirus-crisis.html

Spain’s Congress of Deputies has approved a government decree adapting the justice system to the Covid-19 crisis, which has brought legal activity nearly to a standstill.

The decree introduces new working practices and procedures to keep the judiciary functioning. The need to overhaul Spain’s slow legal system has long been the subject of political debate, but little had been done to date. Now, the coronavirus pandemic has prompted new responses such as video hearings for labor and family court proceedings.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of the Socialist Party (PSOE), who heads a minority government in coalition with junior partner Unidas Podemos, has managed to secure enough congressional support for the decree despite opposition from right-of-center groups such as the Popular Party (PP) and Ciudadanos (Citizens).

Instead, the decree passed on Wednesday with 178 votes in favor, thanks to support from two smaller regional groups, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC). This latter party did not support Sánchez’s recent request for a fourth extension to the state of alarm that underpins Spain’s gradual deescalation measures.

The government has also successfully pushed through a second decree containing emergency measures against the effects of the coronavirus crisis on jobs and the economy. Ciudadanos backed this second initiative, which passed with 201 votes in favor, but it did not vote for the justice decree. However, Ciudadanos did support prolonging the government’s emergency powers last week (...)

The region of Madrid and Metropolitan Barcelona will stay in Phase 0 this week despite the protests of Madrid premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso (involved in a controversy on the rent of a luxury apartment where she was confined after testing positive for coronavirus). I think Ayuso is following Trump's handbook on communication strategy advised by Miguel Ángel Rodríguez, a man who worked for José María Aznar since late 1980s. According to a GAD3 poll for the conservative ABC, the controversial and confrontational Ayuso would win handily regional elections. However, according to Metroscopia a vast majority contradicts Ayuso opposing to accelerate deescalation in Madrid. Given these contradictory signals, the changing situation and the extreme confusion, I'd take polls with loads of salt

Anyways looking at the municipal level estimates is very fun, especially the "flips" from their last "panel". This one in particular seems to come with 2 big cities flipping: Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (my own home town) and Zaragoza

I doubt the Electomania team has a clue with regard politics in the Canary Islands (most people in mainland Spain is completely ignorant on many aspects of the islands). Also, local elections are more difficult to predict than general elections. Anyway I don't have a high opinion of LPGC mayor Augusto Hidalgo (I admit he's rather unknown to me, despite he's been mayor for several years), but I appreciate the Canary Islands premier Ángel Víctor Torres. The PSOE regional leader showed remarkable leadership skills during the terrible Gran Canaria fires in August 2019.

[Velasco]

Former IU leader (1989-2000) and mayor of Córdoba (1979-1986) Julio Anguita has died. Anguita (aged 78) was hospitalized week ago for a cardiorespiratory arrest

https://elpais.com/espana/2020-05-16/julio-anguita-lider-historico-de-izquierda-unida-muere-a-los-78-anos.html?autoplay=1

Pedro Sánchez will request a last extension to the state of alarm

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-05-16/spanish-pm-will-request-one-last-extension-of-the-state-of-alarm-this-time-for-a-month.html

As has become customary during the coronavirus crisis, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez made his weekly televised address on Saturday afternoon to offer an update on the current situation regarding the pandemic. He announced that he would be requesting a last extension to the state of alarm, this time for a month, and also said that the deescalation process could be completed in half of the country by the beginning of summer.

“This week we have received the first results from the seroprevalence survey,” he began by saying, in reference to testing being carried out among the Spanish population to determine how many people have been infected by the coronavirus. “It has brought three important pieces of data: the infection has affected different territories in very different ways, only 5% of Spaniards have been infected, and third, the death rate is at 1%.”

He also insisted that the state of alarm, which was implemented on March 14 in a bid to slow the spread of the coronavirus, had worked. “The path that we are taking is the only one possible,” he said, in reference to the use of the state of alarm to give the government special powers, including recentralizing healthcare from the regions to Madrid, and introducing the confinement measures that are still in place, and which have been among the strictest in the world.

The Socialist Party (PSOE) leader argued that the scientific facts have shown that a “herd immunity” approach would not have been successful, and defended the need to limit mobility and social contact. “That’s the logic behind the deescalation process,” he explained.

The revolt of the 1% against the 'coronavirus oppression' and the 'social-communist' regime. Interesting read

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-05-16/the-revolt-of-the-1-against-the-coronavirus-oppression-in-spain.html

Residents of Madrid’s upscale Salamanca neighborhood have been making headlines since Sunday with a series of street protests against the government over its handling of the coronavirus crisis.

Demonstrators have been using the words “dictatorial” and “oppression” to describe their situation under the ongoing lockdown. Madrid, the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic, is still in the early stages of a national deescalation plan that is expected to end in late June, if there are no new spikes in transmission.

The protests reflect a view, held by some in Spain, that the state of alarm introduced in mid-March to combat the coronavirus pandemic is really an excuse for the central government to grab extra powers. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, of the Socialist Party (PSOE), heads a minority government and he has been facing growing difficulty to secure enough congressional support for back-to-back extensions to the state of alarm. 

[Velasco]

It must feel strange for the 1% to not be totally getting their way on everything, tbf.

It's funny because some of the protesters are actually Francoist (Vox is the second party in Núñez de Balboa street and the left gets below 10% of the vote there). Apparently Madrid premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso as seen at her luxury apartment hitting a saucepan, in protest against the 'social-communist' government. People in the Spanish right always look at the Republican Party and the communication strategies of the American right. Trump is an inspiration for Vox and for Ayuso

[Velasco]

“We are in a dictatorial system, and I know what I’m talking about,” said Magdalena, a local resident who works as a lawyer.

Was I the only one mentally adding, "because I used to work for Franco" to this comment?

Yes, I got the same impression. That Magdalena reminds me a bit someone that I know, a 60-something woman who openly says she's Francoist and supports Vox. The issue is that, despite our vast political differences, we are able to have a polite conversation and even to have a beer in a bar (providing that we avoid to engage in a political discussion, of course). I mean, there are still Francoists in Spain and a few of them (not all) can be polite enough to have a chat with them. The hyperbolic style of some politicians and the political polarization can give the impression that Spain is on the brink of another civil war, but currently the Spanish society is fairly tolerant. But political tension and confrontational attitudes (as well the social network poison) can affect the society during these times of crisis. The issue is that, despite the harsh rhetoric and insults, some politicians from opposing sides have a good personal relationship (case of Pablo Casado and Pablo Iglesias). So the only reason to fuel tension is electioneering. This tension (''crispación'' in Spanish) is not something new, it dates back to the 1990s and worsened after the Madrid bombings of 2004 (the PP launched a campaign against Zapatero resorting to conspiracy theories)

[Velasco]

and worsened after the Madrid bombings of 2004 (the PP launched a campaign against Zapatero resorting to conspiracy theories)

Tbf it can't have been pleasant to have been caught red-handed days before an election like that.

I don't think "caught red-handed" is the right expression. The Spanish government decided in those tragic moments not to face the Al Qaeda authorship, believing that PP could win the election telling people it was ETA. People felt cheated and a wave of indignation spread through the country. Instead of admitting that error and assuming responsibility, the Spanish right launched a campaign aimed at delegitimizing Zapatero. Aznar wasn't "caught red-handed" as he didn't put the bombs in the trains, but tried to mislead people and is fully responsible for that. Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, the unsuccessful PSOE leader who lost to Rajoy in 2011, made a sentence in those days that still upsets the PP: "we deserve a government which doesn't lie to us". The Rubalcaba sentence had a devastating effect because it was said in the right moment. Pablo Casado repeated that sentence recently to tell Pedro Sánchez that he's a liar, but it sounds out of comtext. It's pretty obvious the PP is still resentful for that defeat

[Velasco]

The number of cases in Spain is dropping and the impact of the pandemic has been uneven, with some hardly beaten regions (Madrid, Catalonia, the two Castiles) and others relatively untouched (Asturias, Murcia, the islands and autonomous cities). The reasons to call regional elections this summer in Galicia and Basque Country are varied. Feijóo and Urkullu obviously think that calling elections is good for them, otherwise they would have invoked health emergency to postpone elections indefinitely. But they consider that elections can be held in relatively safe conditions, as it's expected the number of cases will be at the lowest point in summer. It's also true that the term expires in October 2020 in both regions and there exists the possibility of a new outbreak in autumn. Maybe postponing elections beyond the end of term could create some legal problems. Early July seems the best date to hold elections in time and minimize the risks, but I think both regions will add some clause in their decrees to cancel elections if something goes wrong. Vote by mail is a possibility, of course

I'm not following the management of the crisis in the different regions, except for the case of Ayuso in Madrid. I've ead that Ximo Puig is doing well in Valencia, but I don't know why tack50 thinks that Urkullu is underperforming in Basque Country. In any case, both regions are currently in Phase 1 of deescalation. Madrid, Metropolitan Barcelona and parts of Castilla y León remain in Phase 0

[Velasco]

Why did she said this?

Carmen Calvo's explanation about the expansion of the coronavirus: "New York, Madrid and Beijing are in a straight line, three of the big cities where there has been a problem with the devil"

I get from El Español that Carmen Calvo might be referring, with some inaccuracies, to a research pointing that some cities hardly beaten by coronavirus around the world have similitudes in humidity and temperature. Perhaps these factors might contribute to the coronavirus spread, but the research has not been revised. The cities mentioned in the research are Wuhan, NY, Tehran, Madrid and some others

Carnen Calvo also said that she supports aconstitutional reform to make the Senate more ''federal''

Apparently Pedro Sánchez will request another two-week extension for the state of alarm instead of a month, due to the Cs oppisition to the initial submission from the government

[Velasco]

The State of Alarm is for all of Spain

Currently Madrid, Metropolitan Barcelona and much of Castilla-León are still in Phase 0 of deescalation, while the rest of the cpuntry moved to Phase 1. But all the country is under State of Alarm, which allows the government to limit mobility. In case the new extension is passed by the Congress, it will continue in force nationwide. The phases of,deescalation in the different territories are approved by the minister of Health, advised by an experts' committee that reviews the reports submitted by regional governments

Calvo has a tendency to say things in a strange way and I guess she's been mocked in Twitter, but that's only noise

[Velasco]

The new extension of the state of alarm has been passed with the support of Cs and PNV, but the relationship between the government and ERC is strained. MP votes in favour given the situation, but warning the majority that voted the investiture is disbanding. Cs remarks that it's not a permanent ally of the government, while ERC complains that Sánchez is turning to the oranges and votes against the extension for the second time. Total opposition from PP and Vox with the usual rhetoric

Take the CIS estimation with tons of salt. I suspect that most polls will be ''performative'' from now on, so I'll put the whole polling industry in quarantine.

[Velasco]

A deal to repeal the Rajoy's labor reform was made with Bildu, in order to secure its abstention to pass the last extension of the state of alarm. While I'm personally in favour to repeal -totally or partially- that labour legislation, the deal was so awkwardly negotiated that has created a lot of confusion. A deal that irritates employers and unions equally, endangers social dialogue and weakens the coalition government is undoubtedly a huge political mistake. The negoiation with Bildu was conducted by Adfriana lastra (PSOE) and Pablo Echenique (Podemos), without the knowledge of most cabinet members including minister of Economy Nadia Calviño ( an independent technocrat who worked for the EU Commission) and Labour minister Yolanda Díaz (UP member linked to the CCOO union). Nadia Calviño voiced her opposition to the total repeal and has consolidated her position within the government, while Yolanda Díaz has been bypassed and weakened. The deal with its main rival in the basque Country has irritated the PNV as well, while the relationship with other allies like Compromís is strained. Cs has remained silent, but the government's blunder strengthen its position. A weker government is not good news for the country, considering the emergency situation and the destructiveness of PP and Vox.

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-05-21/confusion-reigns-over-government-deal-with-basque-nationalist-party-to-overturn-labor-reform.html

The approval of the fifth extension to the state of alarm by Spain’s Congress of Deputies yesterday ended with a political mess.

After the exceptional measures were approved by the lower house of parliament, news emerged of an agreement between the coalition government – led by the Socialist Party (PSOE) and junior partner Unidas Podemos – and the Basque nationalist group EH Bildu to repeal a 2012 labor reform. The pro-independence party, it emerged, had secured the deal with the government in exchange for abstaining at Wednesday’s key vote to push the end of the state of alarm to June 7.

The text of the agreement began with a commitment by the government to overturn the 2012 legislation, which was passed by the main opposition Popular Party (PP) while it was in power, and which, among other things, gave companies in Spain more flexibility to sack employees. The Wednesday agreement specified that the government should repeal the law before the end of the “extraordinary measures” that are in place to combat the coronavirus crisis – i.e. the state of alarm (...)

But given the controversy that the deal caused among the political opposition, hours later, at around midnight, the PSOE released an “explanatory note” in which it rectified what had been agreed in the first point of the deal. Instead of the complete repeal of the 2012 legislation, the PSOE and its junior partner agreed on a vague commitment to recover “the labor rights taken away by the 2012 labor reform.” The pledge is included in the governing pact reached by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Unidas Podemos chief Pablo Iglesias in December, ahead of the creation of their coalition government.  

Madrid, Barcelona and the remaining parts of the country move to Phase 1 of deescalation, while half of Spain moves to Phase 2 next monday. Foreign tourist will be able to return in July (Spain is taking ore precautions than Italy)

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-05-23/spanish-pm-foreign-tourists-will-be-able-to-return-to-spain-from-july.html

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez held a press conference on Saturday afternoon to discuss the latest measures being taken by his government during the ongoing coronavirus crisis, announcing, among other things, that the tourist sector should start to prepare for the upcoming summer season and that Spain’s top-flight La Liga soccer league would be restarting games at the beginning of next month.

“The hardest part is over,” the Socialist Party (PSOE) leader said about the Covid-19 epidemic, which has left more than 28,000 dead in Spain according to official figures. “We are seeing light at the end of the tunnel. Now the epicenter has moved to other parts of the planet, as is happening, for example, on the American continent. The response of the Spanish people has been formidable. Everyone has fulfilled their mission and they came together to deal with the epidemic (...)

[Velasco]

Just another political storm, this time triggered by the decision of the Interior minister to dismiss a Civil Guard officer. I have to say that Grande Marlaska has every right to dismiss an officer he distrusts. Also, according to some media (El País or eldiario.es) the report on the March 8 marches is full of inaccuracies and half truths. Additionally this Pérez de los Cobos was one of the main culprits for the Spanish government's fiasco in Catalonia during the October 2017 mock referendum. Anyway the details concerning this new controversy are less relevant than the context. In a few words: the government is fragile and commits one mistake after the other, while the opposition is launching a fierce campaign of harassment and destabilization. Neither Spain is Venezuela nor the rightwing opposition represents a viable alternative for the country

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-05-27/civil-guard-dismissal-sparks-political-row-in-spain.html

he head of the Civil Guard command in Madrid, Colonel Diego Pérez de los Cobos, was sacked on Monday in a move that Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska described yesterday as part of “a reasonable, normal policy of building a new team.”

But the dismissal follows a report sent by the Civil Guard to a Madrid judge who is investigating alleged links between public events authorized by the government in early March and the spread of the coronavirus.

The Civil Guard’s second-in-command, Lieutenant General Laurentino Ceña, resigned shortly after learning of Pérez de los Cobos’ dismissal, and on Wednesday, a session inside Spanish Congress focused largely on the issue (...)  

Better news: Spain could get 140 billion from EU's recovery plan

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-05-27/spain-could-get-140-billion-from-eus-covid-19-recovery-plan.html

Spain could be assigned €77 billion in grants and €63 billion in loans from a €750-billion Covid-19 recovery program that was announced by the European Commission on Wednesday.

EU sources said that Spain may be getting a total of €140 billion to help shore up its economy, which is expected to contract by anywhere between 9% and 13% as a result of the coronavirus lockdown, according to the latest estimates by the Bank of Spain.

This would make Spain the second top beneficiary of the financial assistance after Italy, EU sources told the EFE news agency.  

These things are the truly important, not the shameful debates in Congress between the Marchioness Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo and the Deputy PM Pablo Iglesias

[Velasco]

Basque Country poll: Gizaker/EiTB

EAJ-PNV 31 seats (41%)
EH Bildu 19 seats (23.4%)
PSE-EE / PSOE 12 seats (14.2%)
Elkarrekin Podemos 8 seats (11.4%)
PP+Cs 5 seats (7%)

Gains: PNV 3 seats (+3.6%), PSE-EE 3 seats (+2.8%), EH Bildu 1 seat (+2.3%)
Loses; PP+Cs 4 seats (-5.1%), Elkarrekin Podemos 3 seats (-3.5%)

https://www.eitb.eus/es/noticias/politica/detalle/7262013/eitb-focus-encuesta-intencion-voto-elecciones-vascas-12-julio-2020/

Galicia poll: NC Report / La Razón

PP 39/40 seats (46.2%)
PSOE 18/19 seats (22.8%)
BNG 11 seats (15.9%)
Galicia en Común 6 seats (7.6%)

Gains: BNG 5 seats (+7.6%), PSOE 4/5 seats (+4.9%)
Loses: GeC 8 seats (-11.5%), PP 1/2 seats (-1.4%)

 https://www.larazon.es/espana/20200525/7r3gazqa4fbj7omdkdi5icr65e.html

Both regional assemblies total 75 seats (majority: 38).

Vox would get 1.7% in Basque Country and 3.5% in Galiica. Cs would get 1.2% in Galicia

As for the rest of national parties, these results would be a great success for the PP moderate Núñez Feijoó in Galicia and a big failure for the Basque PP hardliner Carlos Iturgáiz (appointed by Pablo Casado in replacement of the dismissed regional leader Alfonso Alonso)

PSOE makes gains in both regions ar the expense of the UP allies

Nationalist advance in the Basque Country (PNV might be gaining some PP moderate voters, while EH Bildu might be gaining at Podemos expense) and BNG surge in Galicia at the expense of GeC (formerly En Marea)

Opinion polling for the next Spanish General Election

Average polling points to a increase around 3% for the PP (23.3% according to Key Data, which is a "poll of polls") and a slight decrease for PSOE (27.8%, Key Data), Vox (14.1%), UP (12.1%) and Cs (6.8%)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Spanish_general_election

[Velasco]

The long awaited guaranteed minimum income scheme has been approved today

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-05-29/spain-to-approve-guaranteed-minimum-income-scheme-for-vulnerable-families.html

he Spanish Cabinet approved on Friday a guaranteed minimum income scheme set to help 850,000 vulnerable families. It is not the first welfare program of its kind in Spain: there are already 17 different schemes in Spain run by each of the regional governments. But the distribution of this aid is very uneven and only reaches around 300,000 homes. The new scheme from the Social Security Ministry will nearly triple that figure. It will also be compatible with the regional aid, according to Social Security Ministry José Luis Escrivá.

Speaking at a press conference on Friday, Finance Minister María Jesús Montero called the guaranteed minimum income scheme “a giant step in the fight against inequality in our country.” The program aims to lift around 1.6 million people out of extreme poverty, a group that represents 12.4% of the population, compared with the EU average of 6.9%. And 26.1% of the population is at risk of poverty, meaning that they are living on less than 60% of the median income, or €8,871 a year.

“Today is a historic day for our democracy,” added Deputy Prime Minister Pablo Iglesias (...) 

[Velasco]

Honestly I do not like that this stacks on top of the regional aid. I am in favour of this policy but it should replace the different regional minimum income schemes.

Tbh the lack of separation between regional powers and "federal" powers is one of my biggest complaints in terms of the current administrative structure of Spain but that is not getting solved any time soon

I agree on the second part, but personally I do not mind the national scheme is complementing regional schemes (it's something like "co-governance"). As for the policy itself, it's necessary as long as our economies can't provide full employment (and it's going to be worse with the ongoing automation). I think it's a big hypocrisy to criticize subsidies without giving subsidized people opportunities to make a living. Poverty and social exclusion are too high in Spain for a developed country

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez secured the last state of alarm extension with 177 affirmative votes (including PNV and Cs) and 18 abstain (including ERC). While the pandemic is apparently under control and the country moves through the deescalation phases to the "new normality", there is a mountingpolitical tension with heavy attacks from PP and VOX. Regarding the controversy on the dismissal of the Guardia Civl top officer Pérez de los Cobos, the doltishness of a Director general gives ammunition to the right that demands the head of minister Grande Marlaska (writing in a document the reason to dismiss someone is not revealing the content of a report commissioned by the judge is blatantly stupid, even though there are good reasons to fire a man who is hostile to the government and is working to undermine it it from the inside).

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-06-03/after-bitter-debate-in-congress-spains-pm-secures-extension-to-state-of-alarm.html

  Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez took advantage on Wednesday of a debate in the Congress of Deputies to call for support from other parties with the objective of “facilitating the transformation of the economy to another, more sustainable model,” in a bid to deal with the destruction caused by the coronavirus crisis.

The Socialist Party (PSOE) leader, who heads a coalition government with junior partner Unidas Podemos, was speaking in Spain’s lower house of parliament today at a vote to extend the state of alarm for a sixth and final time. The emergency powers have been in place since March 14, with the aim of halting the spread of the coronavirus. After an at times bitter debate, Sánchez won the vote to keep the state of alarm in place until June 21, with 177 votes in favor. The abstention of the Catalan Republican Left (ERC) and the support of the Basque Nationalist Party and Ciudadanos (Citizens) was key to the legislation passing.

Sánchez announced to lawmakers during the session that the Cabinet will next week approve a Royal Decree that will unite all of the measures and health regulations that will be in place as Spain exits the crisis, and that will be implemented jointly with the country’s regional governments until a vaccine against the Covid-19 disease is available.

As the coronavirus crisis has progressed, criticism of the government by the opposition at these debates – which have been held every two weeks during the state of alarm – has grown increasingly fierce.

Today Sánchez called on groups such as the conservative Popular Party (PP) and far-right Vox not to use the Spanish flag as a symbol against Spaniards. But his appeals did nothing to placate PP chief Pablo Casado, who once again delivered a relentless attack on the prime minister, citing all of the controversies and scandals that have affected the PSOE administration since Pedro Sánchez took power in 2018 thanks to a motion of no confidence he won against then-PP Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. (...)

Some polls pointing there's a strong rejection to the climate of political tension. According to Metroscoia, VOX and PP are perceived as the parties that create more tension, followed by UP, PSOE and Cs. On the other hand, the conservative pollster Narciso Michavila (GAD3) warns that tension builders might have to pay a high electoral price. But Pablo Casado persists in the strategy disregarding these warnings and despite the displeasure of some people in his party like the Galicia premier Núñez Feijóo. Possibly the aim of the PP leader is to maintain tension and try to destabilize the government, with the focus on next autumn. Then Pedro Sánchez will have to face a critical moment, as he needs to negotiate a budget with the different parties and control possible pandemic outbreaks. I have read that maybe the goal of the PP's strategy is not to win an unlikely rightwing majority in Congress, but to replace the pSOE as the first party and lead a "concentration" government with the socialists in a subordinated position and the head of Sánchez severed. In any case, it's highly unlikely we go to general elections this year. 

Half of the country moving to phase 3 tomorrow

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-06-05/more-than-half-of-spain-moving-to-phase-3-of-coronavirus-deescalation-plan-on-monday.html

he Spanish Health Ministry announced on Friday that it had approved every region’s request to move to a new stage of the coronavirus deescalation plan. This means that more than half of the country will be in Phase 3 by Monday, June 8, while Madrid region and the city of Barcelona will be allowed to enter Phase 2.

“Fifty-two percent of the population will be in Phase 3,” said Health Minister Salvador Illa at a government press conference on Friday. “We are in the final stage, but we are still in the deescalation process,” he added.

The following areas will move to Phase 3: Galicia, Asturias, Cantabria, Basque Country, La Rioja, Navarre, Aragon, Extremadura, Andalusia, Murcia, the Balearic islands of Mallorca, Menorca and Ibiza, and the Canary islands of Tenerife, Gran Canaria, La Palma, Lanzarote and Fuerteventura.

The state of alarm will end in a couple of weeks and we'll have regional elections in Galicia and Basque Country on July 12 (if nothing untoward happens)

[Velasco]

Spain is no longer under the State of Alarm. The so-called 'new normality' began yesterday

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-06-21/spains-new-normality-the-new-rules-region-by-region.html

Most of Spain left behind more than three months under a state of alarm on Sunday, entering the so-called “new normality,” in which social distancing of 1.5 meters is still required, and masks must be worn when that is not possible. Galicia was the first region to leave behind the government’s coronavirus deescalation phases, entering the new normality on Monday, while the Basque Country, Cantabria and Catalonia made the change on Friday.

Limits on capacity in commercial premises are now in place in nearly all regions, and this will remain the case until either an effective treatment or vaccine for the coronavirus is found. If there are major outbreaks in Spain, a state of alarm may well be introduced once more (...)

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo

PSOE 28.7% (+0.7%)
PP 26% (+5.2%)
UP 12% (-0.8%)
VOX 11.7% (-3.4%)
Cs 8.3% (+1.5%)

PP leader Pablo Casado, Vox leader Santiago Abascal and Finance minister María Jesús Montero (PSOE) attended pre-campaign acts yesterday in Galicia. Premier Alberto Núñez Feijoó (PP) is strongly positioned, according to polls

Sondaxe poll for La Voz de Galicia

PP 46.7% (41 seats)
PSOE 21.3% (15 seats)
BNG 15.2% (12 seats)
GeC* 10.4% (7 seats)

*_{Galicia en Común: Podemos, IU, Anova, Mareas}

[Velasco]

If they PP loses the majority by, say, one seat, Feijoó is out right? No way they can reach a deal with the other parties I assume?

Unless Vox or Cs somehow has said remaining seat (which is very unlikely) yeah, Feijoo is out. For him it is either 38 seats or bust.

In any other case, PSOE, BNG and UP will rule together.

Polls in Galicia show that regional PP collects nearly all the voters right of the centre, while the voters left of the centre are splitted in three viable parties. This factor gives a relative advantage to Feijóo under the D'Hondt system. Other factors working in his favour are the PP's grip on the region, a consolidated leadership, the low impact of the covid-19 in the region, the lack of sandals and controversies, the low appeal or name recognition of the opposition leaders, etcetera. The main threat to Feijóo is a big mobilization of the left, so it's not in his interest to exacerbate political tension and division. That's one of the main reasons why the Galician premier is not very happy with the aggressive tones of the national PP, even though polls suggest his position is fairly safe.  

[Velasco]

CIS pre-election survey

Apparently the controversial Félix Tezanos has adjusted the methodology to a more standard prediction. Despite most of the recent CIS surveys are "performative", Mr Tezanos tries to make good predictions in pre-election surveys and it's worth remembering the CIS was more spotted on than other pollsters in April 2019 (but not in the following elections)

Galicia

PP 46% (40-42 seats)
PSOE 19.5% (16-18 seats)
BNG 16.8% (12-14 seats)
GeC 7.2% (4-6 seats)

Prediction by province:

 -A Coruña: PP 47.3, PSOE 19.3, BNG 18.4, GeC 7.4, En Marea 2.1, Cs 1.9, Vox 0.7, Others 2.9
-Pontevedra: PP 43, PSOE 19.7, BNG 16.2, GeC 8.5, En Marea 4.1, Cs 2.3, Vox 1.7, Others 4.5
-Lugo: PP 48.1, PSOE 19.8, BNG 15.7, GeC 4.7, En Marea 2.8, Vox 2.0, Cs 1.4, Others 4.5
-Ourense: PP 48.1, PSOE 18.9, BNG 13.8, GeC 5.5, Cs 3-4, En Marea 2.6, Vox 2.6, Others 5.1

Vote transfers 2016-2020:

PP: PP 86, PSOE 1, BNG 1, Vox 2, Cs 1
En Marea: PP 1, PSOE 12, BNG 31, GeC 32, En Marea 9
PSOE: PP 10, PSOE 63, BNG 6, GeC 2, Cs 1, En Marea 1
BNG: PP 4, PSOE 6, BNG 72, GeC 3, En Marea 1
Didn't vote: PP 29, PSOE 8, BNG 10, GeC 4, Vox 2, En Marea 2

Average score (0-10 scale) and level of knowledge

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) 5.9 100%
Gonzalo Caballero (PSOE) 4.9 84%
Ana Pontón (BNG) 5.1 75%
Antón Gómez-Reino (GeC) 3.9 51%
Beatriz Pinto (Cs) 3.2 30%
Pancho Casal (En Marea) 3.2 29%
Ricardo Moreno-Fajardo (Vox) 3.0 27%

Basque Country

EAJ-PNV  40.8% (31-34 seats)
EH Bildu 19% (16-18 seats)
PSE-EE 15.2% (11-13 seats)
Elkarrekin Podemos 14.9% (11-12 seats)
PP+Cs 5.9% (3-6 seats)

Results by province:

-Álava/Araba: EAJ-PNV 35.3, EH Bildu 18, PSE-EE 17.9, EP 14.7, PP+Cs 9
Guipúzcoa/Gipuzkoa: EAJ-PNV 41.8, EH Bildu 24.9, PSE-EE 13.7, EP 12,7, PP+Cs 3.7
Vizcaya/Bizkaia: EAJ-PNV 41.7, EH Bildu 15.7, PSE-EE 15.2, EP 16.3, PP+Cs 6.3

Vote transfers 2016-2020

EAJ-PNV: EAJ-PNV 78, EH Bildu 3, PSE-EE 3, EP 1, PP+Cs 1, Others 1
EH Bildu: EAJ-PNV 3, EH Bildu 84, PSE-EE 1, EP 3, Others 2
Elkarrekin Podemos: EAJ-PNV 7, EH Bildu 9, PSE-EE 3, EP 64, Others 5
PSOE: EAJ-PNV 7, EH Bildu 1, PSE-EE 75, EP 5, PP+Cs 1, Others 3
PP+Cs: EAJ-PNV 11, PSE-EE 7, PP+Cs 43, Others 8

Average score(0-10) and level of knowledge

Íñigo Urkullu 5.9 99%
Maddaln Iriarte (EH Bildu) 5.1 63%
Idoia Mendia (PSE-EE) 4.8 82%
Miren Gorrotxategi (EP) 4.7 57%
Carlos Iturgáiz (PP+Cs) 2.3 85%
Nicolás Gutiérrez (Vox) 2.6 35%

It's remarkable the low name recognition of Maddalen Iriarte, but keep in mind the actual EH Bildu leader is Arnaldo Otegi. Take for granted everybody in the Basque Country knows him. On the opposite side, the veteran Carlos Iturgáiz is well known and broadly disliked

Edit: I misnaned Mr Otegi before. It was the ghost of Xabier Arzalluz

[Velasco]

Is there any major difference between BNG, GeC and En Marea?

That's a good question, I think there are little differences between the three and they are mostly related to their degree of regionalism or Galician nationalism. The BNG is a leftwing nationalist organization that has shifted in recent years to more a more accentuated sovereigntism, in the line of EH Bildu in the Basque Country and ERC in Catalonia. En Marea (2016) and Galicia en Común (2020) are heterogeneous coalitions incorporating federalist or soft nationalist organizations like Podemos and IU (Esquerda Unida), alongside nationalist or sovereigntist elements like Anova (a BNG split) and the current En Marea group (a breakaway bound to fail that may hurt the chances of the viable parties in the left). Additionally Galicia en Común (and En Marea in 2016) incorporates some local parties also called Mareas ("Tides"), such as Marea Atlántica (led by former A Coruña mayor Xulio Ferreiro) or Compostela Oberta. There have been fruitless calls in previous months to unite all the forces to the left of the PSOE.

Well, looks like the 2 elections will be snoozefests unfortunately (there is a small chance of an upset in Galicia but not much)

Anyways, it is worth noting that Catalonia will probably have an election at some point this year so I will be looking forward to that one more than these 2

Maybe they don't look very exciting on paper, but they are actual elections and I wouldn't rule out some surprises in this strange world of today. Of course it's important to keep an eye in Catalonia. The coronavirus crisis gave Torra a respite, but the relationship between JxCAT and ERC is completely strained to the point their cabinet members are no longer a united government. The PP-Cs coalition government in Madrid is also splitted in two and premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso was considering to call elections. She was told not to move forward, in order to preserve the PP-Cs coalitions in Andalusia, Castilla y León and Murcia. Regarding to this, it's worth noting that the regions ruled by the PP (all in coalition with Cs usually propped up by Vox, except Galicia) represent more than a half of the Spain's population. This is the main base of power for a party that has performed very bad in recent times. All the PP premiers tend to be more moderate than Pablo Casado, with the notable exception of Ayuso in Madrid. Regarding the two upcoming elections, one of the main points of interest will be the predictably uneven PP performance...

[Velasco]

Sigma Dos poll for the región of Madrid

PP 43 seats (31.9%)
PSOE 40 seats (29.5%)
Cs 14 seats (10.8%)
Más Madrid 14 seats (10.3%)
Vox 11 seats (8 4%)
UP 10 seats (7.8%)

Gains (seats): PP 13, PSOE 3, UP 3
Loses (seats): Cs 12, MM 6, Vox 1

Cs would still hold the keys of the regional assembly