Spanish elections and politics II: Catalan elections on February 14, 2021

[Velasco]

Worth noting that Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo being fired and replaced with Cuca Gamarra also reinforces the turn towards moderation and the center that PP has done since the pandemic started.

Do you really think the PP turned to "moderation" when the pandemic started? Seriously? Perhaps the harsh attacks during the worst stages, with 800 or 900 dead every day, were product of my imagination. I'll welcome any sign of "moderation" and "common sense", in any case. "United before adversity"

[Velasco]

Worth noting that Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo being fired and replaced with Cuca Gamarra also reinforces the turn towards moderation and the center that PP has done since the pandemic started.

Do you really think the PP turned to "moderation" when the pandemic started? Seriously? Perhaps the harsh attacks during the worst stages, with 800 or 900 dead every day, were product of my imagination. I'll welcome any sign of "moderation" and "common sense", in any case. "United before adversity"

So it's "radical" to question the government?

It seems that "moderation" means saying nothing and agreeing with everything the government says.

No, you are wrong. Uniting before adversity is a matter of patriotism, at least during the worst moments. You have the example of Portugal to see how a responsible opposition leader must behave in these situations. Rui Rio has been praised in some Spanish media for good reasons:

https://www.lavanguardia.com/internacional/20200516/481163162534/rui-rio-portugal-oposocion-gobierno-gestion-crisis.html

La disrupción provocada por la pandemia resulta tan intensa que la política española ha descubierto que Portugal existe, de manera que pierde un poco de vigencia la máxima de Pi i Margall de que en España se sabe mejor quién gobierna en Rusia que quién lo hace al otro lado de la frontera lusa.

Con el primer ministro António Costa casi convertido en un héroe popular por su defensa de España frente a las críticas de Holanda y con el Partido Popular usando las mucho mejores cifras oficiales de Portugal como arma arrojadiza, el Gobierno de Pedro Sánchez encontró en el jefe de la oposición, el conservador Rui Rio, el modelo que contraponer a la actitud de Pablo Casado, con su apuesta por ser un “soldado” en la colaboración con el Ejecutivo socialista de Lisboa (...)

“Que el país sepa que el PSD apoya al Gobierno en este combate. Estamos en una emergencia nacional. Tenemos una amenaza que combatir. Lo que se exige es unidad, solidaridad y responsabilidad, en el nombre del interés nacional”.  

 

Rui Rio stated he's is not backping the socialists, he's backing the government of Portugal in a situation of emergency.

Meanwhile in the government of Spain was dealing with an unprecedented situation with more or less success, surely trying to do its best while suffering a campaign of harassment and destabilization consisting in vicious attacks and hyperbole. There is a big difference between criticizing the possible errors of the government (for sure they existed, mixed with some successes) and the baseless accusations of criminal behaviour. A responsible opposition leader never claims the government is killing its citizens without clear evidence, because making such baseless accusations  is an execrable sin named slander. A loyal and responsible opposition leader oversees the government's management and bases criticism on verifiable data.

On the other hand, I'd be curious to know the reaction of rightwingers if the opposition in Madrid was using the same tactics against Ayuso, because there's mounting evidence suggesting her management has been disastrous on many fronts

[Velasco]

Are you trying to compare the situation created by the Ebola virus with the ongoing crisis? Good luck with that. Also, Pedro Sánchez said "the government is responsible". He did not accuse the Rajoy administration of killing Spanish citizens. This is a very serious accusation that can't be done lightly. If Casado and Abascal were honest persons moved by the national interest. not by ideological hatred or the desire to topple the government, they should apologize and resign their seats immediately

Please, don't spam the thread posting loads of tweets. I have nothing against freedom of speech, but I prefer if you limit your re-tweets to the strictly necessary

[Velasco]

If you want to highlight my hypocrisy, please resort to arguments. I don't pay attention to many tweets because they mean nothing to me. It's better that you elaborate your thoughts, in order to support your views. Right now you are spamming and I don't want to report your excessive re-tweets. Use your own words, links or whatever

[Velasco]

The government welcomes the replacement of Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, hoping that the PP is more open to reach deals. However, government sources quoted by El País believe that the appointment of a new spokesperson reflects internal power struggles within the PP and not a strategic turn. Socialists consider the controversial Álvarez de Toledo is a gift for them while in campaign, but there are no elections in the horizon. Now the priority is to reach deals with the PP, in order to renew constitutional bodies like the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ in Spanish, its members should have been replaced nearly two years ago), the Board of the RTVE (thepublic broadcaster) and the Ombudsman. According to Álvarez de Toledo, Casado told to her that she could be an obstacle to solve these issues. More importantly, it's necessary discuss the allocation of the European Reconstruction Fund, which is key for economic recovery (and very important for the regions governed by PP and Cs). Government sources deem impossible that the PP is open to facilitate the first reading of the budget, but hope that a less hostile attitude allows more room for manoeuvre to negotiate with Cs

[Velasco]

Likely the choice made by former king Juan Carlos to take temporary residence in the Emirates is not the best, in order to help his son and current king Felipe. The stay of Juan Carlos in the UAE reminds us his past activities as lobbyist for the Arab despots

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/13/opinion/king-juan-carlos-exile.html

(...)An outdated culture of allegiance, the opacity surrounding the Spanish monarchy and a Constitution that exempts our kings from any criminal responsibility sent the monarch the message that he was above the law. His immunity from prosecution, designed to give stability to the institution of the crown, was used to amass a fortune primarily through millions of dollars in presumed kickbacks from Arab dictators. He acquired such wealth that in 2012, in the middle of the Great Recession that left 25 percent of Spaniards unemployed, he transferred 65 million euros to his lover Corinna Larsen, a German businesswoman (...)  

Making things worse, Corina Larsen emerges again with very embarrassing statements in an extensive BBC interview

https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-53749630

"He called me up and said the king had come see him and told him he was very much in love with me, and intended to marry me," she says. "He also told my father he couldn't do it straight away, it might take some time. He wanted my father to know he was very serious about me."

(...)

"Obviously, it's a very emotional moment when something like that happens," she says. "And I was very much in love with him, but I foresaw - I'm a political strategist - that this would be very difficult. And I thought it might destabilise the monarchy.

(...)

Later in 2012, she claims she was visited in London by the head of Spanish intelligence, Félix Sanz Roldán.

"He said he was sent by the king," she says. "The primary warning was not to talk to the media.

"He said if I didn't follow these instructions, he would not guarantee my physical safety or the physical safety of my children."

(...)

he is one of the individuals being investigated by the Swiss prosecutor. And that is because in 2012, after the Botswana debacle, the then-King Juan Carlos transferred what was left of that $100 million from Saudi Arabia - around €65m - to her.

"I was very surprised because it's obviously an enormously generous gift," she says. "I will say, though, that conversations about him managing his will during his lifetime had taken place in 2011. He started to talk about his death and what he wanted to leave in his will (...)

"I don't know if this money is illegal," she says. But if the ongoing investigations establish an illegal origin for this money, "they should return it".

And zu Sayn-Wittgenstein's response?

"I will leave this up to the Swiss prosecutor," she says. "Putting me under pressure on that is not the right way to go forward.

"Because I think in that case, everybody needs to return everything. What I find extraordinary is they're rolling 40 years of the modus operandi of a family enterprise into a focus on one person. And that's me… Because there will be hundreds of other accounts in other jurisdictions."
  

In other news, the Spanish government ups security over concerns for safety of ministers. Podemos politicians Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero have been subjected to four months of harassment outside their home in Madrid, and this week were forced to cut short their vacation

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-08-20/spanish-government-ups-security-measures-over-concerns-for-safety-of-ministers.html

he government is taking the ongoing harassment that is being suffered by Unidas Podemos politicians Pablo Iglesias and Irene Montero very seriously, considering it not to be an isolated incident but rather the result of a political climate that is being fanned by the far right. The executive is opting to increase the security measures outside the Madrid home of the deputy prime minister and his partner, who is the equality minister in the coalition government, and is preparing for a potential worsening of the situation this coming fall.

Coronavirus outbreaks: Health minister reported 131 dead last week

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-08-20/coronavirus-deaths-reported-by-spains-health-ministry-beginning-to-rise.html

The rise in coronavirus infections that Spain has been seeing in recent weeks has prompted a spike in the number of Covid-19-related deaths due to the serious pneumonia that the pathogen causes. According to the data released on Wednesday by the Health Ministry, 131 people with the coronavirus have died in the last seven days, a figure that is twice that released by the ministry on Tuesday, and 11 times greater than the 12 deaths that were reported in the third week of July, just a month ago.

The deaths being caused by the virus are, however, even greater in number, but the delays in the notification of the data that the regions send to the ministry and that are subsequently made public mean that changes in trend are trickling through slowly (...)

Pere Godoy, the president of the Spanish Epidemiological Society (SEE), believes that this increase in mortality is “the expected result in the rise of the circulation of the virus registered in recent weeks, with a number of outbreaks and community transmission present in a number of areas.” Despite this, “these sudden increases in mortality can also be due to delays in notification,” the expert explains.

“But there is no doubt that if the incidence increases, mortality will end up rising too,” Godoy adds, saying that “it is to be expected that this rise is not as steep as that registered in the spring, given that many of the people being diagnosed now are young, healthy and even asymptomatic.”

Madrid is still at the top of the list of new positives, with 2,207 in total and 1,535 in the last 24 hours

[Velasco]

Catalan elections: Cs replaces Lorena Roldán by Carlos Carrizosa as the candidate for the upcoming elections in Catalonia (without specific date as yet)

Carrizosa is currently the Cs spokesman in the Parliament of Catalonia, while Lorena Roldán is the Cs spokeswoman in the Spanish Senate. The reason alleged by Cs is the need for a candidate holding public offices only in Catalonia, as well someone "less identified with the Cs acronym" (astoundingly, Carrizosa is regarded less partisan than Roldán), in order to form a 'constitutionalist' alliance with PP and the PSC. Such alliance is very unlikely, as it's totally rejected by the Catalan socialists and the PP is not very interested (except maybe for joint lists in Girona and Lleida, where the PP has very few chances of winning seats in its own).

 Lorena Roldán was appointed candidate in July 2019, when Inés Arrimadas decided to jump into national politics to second former Cs leader Albert Rivera. I don't now the actual reaasons for this replacement atm

[Velasco]

The "constitutionalist front" with Cs, PSC and PP makes no sense in Catalonia. Leaving aside other ideological differences, their attitude towards Catalan nationalism and/or identity (the expression catalanisme may refer to both) has never been the same. PP and Cs are parties that oppose Catalan nationalism, especially the party once led by Albert Rivera (the PP attempted a soft catalanista approach for a short period, when Josep Piqué was the regional leader). The PSC has always been federalist and catalanista since the late 1970s , when the PSOE branch merged with some other small socialist parties operating in Catalonia by that time. The PSC always had a catalanista or soft nationalist wing. Actually Cs was founded in Catalonia by a group of intellectuals that in many cases were close to the socialists, but grew disappointed by the excessive (in their view) nationalist leanings of the PSC under Pasqual Maragall

The sovereigntist process, or the conflict on Catalan independence, distressed the PSC and many of the most catalanista members fled to ERC and even JxCAT. Currently the PSC advocates a federal state and seeks to build bridges with moderate nationalists contrary to secession. The PSC has integrated in party lists members of Units per Avançar (the heir of Unió), despite that group is ideologically christian-democrat (centre-right)

On pure electoral calculus, a constitutionalist front would be unprofitable. I can imagine leftwing PSC voters switching to CatComu-Podem, as it happened with ERC voters that switched to the CUP when the Oriol Junqueras party joined JxSI with CDC. The fiasco of the PP+Cs coalition in the Basque Country is another solid reason to oppose and the PP leader in Catalonia asked the national leadership to dismiss the idea (except maybe for Girona and Lleida)

[Velasco]

Yeah, King Juan Carlos has been hiding (and stealing) hundreds of millions of € but of course a "beach chat" that may even be the result of a pure coincidence is much, much worse. Also, they weren't wearing masks!!1!1!1!1!!!

They don't wear masks because they are followers of Miguel Bosé and his conspiracy theories.

More seriously, I ignore the circumstances. Maybe it was a casual encounter, aa you say. Would you refuse to say hello or to have a chat with an old acquaintance, in case you are minister and he is convicted on corruption? Is that chat so relevant? I don't have an answer  Not wearing mask seems to be a more serious issue in these times.

Apparently the affairs of Juan Carlos are not very important. I think Corinna Larsen talked extensively with a BBC journalist because she will have to appear in court pretty soon.

The Spanish monarchy is certainly not in good shape, but it will be definitely done the day it's perceived as a partisan institution. So if I was the king, I would be worried at the attempts of the Spanish right to appropiate that institution. Right now Sánchez is backing the king Felipe, either for the sake of stability or for personal conviction. It'd be in the interest of Felipe that our rightwing MPs did not use the "viva el rey" against the government. That's not good for him.

Welcome back, Julio

[Velasco]

Catalan elections: Cs replaces Lorena Roldán by Carlos Carrizosa as the candidate for the upcoming elections in Catalonia (without specific date as yet)

Carrizosa is currently the Cs spokesman in the Parliament of Catalonia, while Lorena Roldán is the Cs spokeswoman in the Spanish Senate. The reason alleged by Cs is the need for a candidate holding public offices only in Catalonia, as well someone "less identified with the Cs acronym" (astoundingly, Carrizosa is regarded less partisan than Roldán), in order to form a 'constitutionalist' alliance with PP and the PSC. Such alliance is very unlikely, as it's totally rejected by the Catalan socialists and the PP is not very interested (except maybe for joint lists in Girona and Lleida, where the PP has very few chances of winning seats in its own).

 Lorena Roldán was appointed candidate in July 2019, when Inés Arrimadas decided to jump into national politics to second former Cs leader Albert Rivera. I don't now the actual reaasons for this replacement atm

Apparently the change of candidate is an attempt to prevent a debacle and is not the product of infighting. Lorena Roldán was elected candidate a year ago, proposed by Albert Rivera and ratified in a primary election with 86.6% of the vote. She is a member for Tarragona in he Parliament of Catalonia since 2015 and member of the Spanish Senate since May 2018 (designated by the Catalan parliament), where she was promoted to the position of spokeswoman. In sum, she was regarded a rising star and was chosen to replace the charismatic Ines Arrimadas because she had a similar profile on paper. However, Roldán has been unable to position herself in the turbulent and complicated political scene of Catalonia. She has been gradually replaced in the role of leader of the opposition by the veteran Carlos Carrizosa, who is one of the Cs founders as well a hardliner and a razor-tongued spokesman. Carrizosa attended a recent interview with the director of the public channel TV3 and was the Cs spokesperson who confronted premier Quim Torra in a recent parliamentary debate to reprove the king (a sort of propagandístic declaration without legal implications, because it's not constitutional) triggered by the recent scandals affecting the monarchy.  The decision was made by Inés Arrimadas and her little executive committee, with the knowledge of Roldan and Carrizosa. All the polls released until now point to a Cs decline that it's worrying, but it could be even worse if polls are failing to measure the magnitude of the fall (as it happened in the last general elections that led ti the demise of Albert Rivera)

[Velasco]

It's sooo normal and nice to have your own Head of State literally hiding money from the Treasury.

Right now I'm reading in the news that Pablo Casado orderred to cease negotiations to renew the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ) because of the "ambiguous attitude" of Pedro Sánchez towards the emeritus king, as well because UP advocates a republican state and apparently being republican is an outrage. Keep in kind that Sánchez has stated the form of the state is not under discussion and is backing the current king, although he also stated the news on the Juan Carlos' affairs were "disturbing". Well, I think "disturbing" is the least that can be said. None of the parties right of the centre have said a word about the irregular activities of former king Juan Carlos. They remain very attached to the old culture of allegiance that allowed Juan Carlos' impunity (and the PSOE is not much better in this regard).

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20200822/482928962009/pablo-casado-pp-cgpj-rey.html

 Said this, in my opinion the debate monarchy vs republic is not the most important question. There are many corrupt and authoritarian republics all around the world. The main issue to discuss should be the transparency and accountability of the institutions; stop overprotecting Felipe and demand the royal hosehold open doors and windows. On the other hand, I find some 'republicans' a bit hypocritical. Some Catalan separatists are taking advantage to say Spain is corrupt and unreformable (Oriol Junqueras, for instance), while forgetting the "father" of the Catalan nationalism Jordi Pujol and his family are corrupt too. I have republican leanings, but no sympathy for hypocrites

[Velasco]

Political discussion in Spain has been focused on the reopening of schools, amidst a surge in coronvirus that points to a second wave. Central and regional governments agreed measures to reopen the schools closed since the first upsurge in March, including:

- Mandatory face masks for school staff and students aged six and over, measure extensive to school transport

- Physical distancing between students set at 1.5 meters

- Students and teachers will have their temperature taken before school day starts

-  Students will wash their hands "frequently and vigorously" at least 5 times a day

  Cleaning of school buildings will be stepped up, particularly bathrooms and areas frequently used

- Creation of "bubble groups" to limit the contact between classes

- Health and Education ministries call to avoid activities involving different groups of students

- The use of open-air spaces for activities will be prioritized

- Reduction of the physical presence on site of school staff to the "essential minimum", prioritizing remote work wherever possible

  Authorities recommend communication with students by phone, email, messages or posts, facilitating administrative tasks by remote means

- Any staff particularly vulnerable will have to "rigorously respect" protection measures

- Schools will be open for the whole, term, as will as canteens and services for students with special needs,  "provided that the epidemiological situation allows for it"

(...)

These measures are "the lowest common denominator" agreed between central and peripheral administrations and were signed by all regions except  the Basque Country. The Basque government is not opposed to them, but it's very protective of regional autonomy and devolved competences thus opting to introduce its own measures separately.  

In-person classes are deemed not only preferable to remote teaching, but necessary for the economically disadvantaged students with less access to the internet and technological devices. In other words, it's a matter concerning equality of opportunities. Even though there's little discussion about that, central and peripheral governments of different political colours are facing heavy criticism. For instance, there is a devastating opinion article by David Jiménez in the NYT, accusing all administrations of neglect and improvisation in a depth charge against the political class. The opinion article is only available in the Spanish edition atm, but I guess there will be an English translation too (I linked an insightful article on Juan Carlos by the same author before)

https://www.nytimes.com/es/2020/08/27/espanol/opinion/vuelta-cole-espana.html


During the state of alarm, the central government took control, centralizing decisions and coordinating the efforts of the regional administrations. The Health minister Salvador Illa became the highest authority. But given the high degree of decentralization of the healthcare system, the minister acted like an overall coordinator in permanent contact with his regional counterparts. When the state of alarm came to an end, the central government devolved deescalation measures to the regional administrations with mixed results. Recently Pedro Sánchez offered support to the regions that require to implement the state of alarm, in case of aggravation. However, regional premiers are very reluctant to accept that offer, opting for less strict measures. The state of alarm implies the government takes full control and a strong erosion

The news concerning the new upsurge are somewhat alarming

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-08-28/the-reopening-of-schools-in-spain-here-are-the-measures-agreed-by-the-government-and-the-regions.html

The Spanish Health Ministry reported on Thursday that 9,658 new coronavirus cases had been detected by the regions. This is the largest spike in infections that Spain has seen since it entered a second wave of the virus, and confirms the upward trend of Covid-19 transmission, which has been rising since the beginning of August.

The news came on the same day that Spain’s 17 regions and the Health and Education ministries met to establish protocols for how to safely reopen schools in September. According to Fernando Simón, the director of the Health Ministry’s Coordination Center for Health Alerts, students will be able to return to class even if there is “community transmission” of the virus in Spain.

After sternly warning last week that citizens should “have no doubts” that “things are not going well,” Simón offered a more temperate message at Thursday’s press conference. He highlighted that although some regions are seeing a noticeable rise in cases (for instance those along the Mediterranean coast) or are continuing to report very high infection numbers (mainly in Madrid), in other regions, such as Aragón, Catalonia, Basque Country and Navarre, the “trend is stabilizing or even falling.” (...)
  

[Velasco]

The negotiations on the 2021 budget are creating tension between PSOE and Podemos, even though government sources quoted by El País rule out the coalition is going to break. The reason is the apparently definitive veto of Podemos to negotiate the Cs support. Despite Pedro Sánchez has made explicit calls for unity, in order to pass some sort of 'patriotic' budget to overcome the crisis, PP leader Pablo Casado has rejected the proposal. Cs is open to engage in negotiations, but the orange party is asking Sánchez that the budget is as far from the Podemos ideas as possible. It's the classical hostility between the two parties, that continues after the departure of Albert Rivera. Cs representatives often make disdainful remarks about the "populists", while Podemos spokespersons openly state they prefer a negotiation with ERC. The problem is that the ERC support is very hard to achieve before elections take place in Catalonia. There is not a date fixed for the elections and everything depends on political calculations (on the part pf premier Quim Torra and the 'exiled' Carles Puigdemont, both from JxCAT) and the evolution of the pandemic this autumn. In the midst of this uncertain scenario of pre-electoral tension, JxCAT and ERC are engaging in a war of words (premier Torra called for a "smart confrontation" with the Spanish state, while some ERC spokesperson replied they prefer a "smart negotiation"). In this context the ERC support might be impossible, in case the Catalan party is demanding too much. On the other hand, the round table on the Catalan conflict agreed between the pSOE and ERC is paralyzed due to the pre-electoral climate. Given these complex circumstances, the PSOE is approaching Cs to the displeasure of ERC and Podemos. The purples are asking Sánchez to lo take care of the parties that voted his investiture. But socialists fear the Podemos stance contrary to deals with Cs gives ERC veto power on the budget negotiations

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez made a call for unity and a "new political climate" before an audience of big corporation leaders

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-08-31/spains-business-elite-turns-out-to-hear-pms-call-for-a-new-political-climate.html

panish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez held an unusual public event on Monday: instead of organizing a political rally attended by grassroots supporters, he marked the end of parliament’s summer recess with a speech given in the presence of the country’s top business leaders. His message was one of unity amid the ongoing coronavirus crisis, and it was aimed squarely at the main opposition Popular Party (PP).

The mere presence of the business leaders was, in itself, a political statement. Major figures such as Ana Patricia Botín from the Santander banking group, José María Álvarez Pallete from telecommunications giant Telefónica, Carlos Torres from lender BBVA, Florentino Pérez from construction group ACS, and Pablo Isla from fashion giant Inditex – which owns the popular brand Zara – were all in attendance to hear Sánchez call for unity and a “new political climate.”

Despite the internal tensions in the governing coalition over the budget negotiations and the aperture to Cs, Sánchez guaranteed the business leaders stability for the next 40 months.

“The government is choosing unity, not division, nor conflict, nor confrontation,” the prime minister said during his speech. “Spain must come to an understanding with Spain, just like Europe came to an understanding with Europe in July,” he said, in reference to the agreement hammered out by European Union countries over the bloc’s financial response to the coronavirus crisis. “This is the biggest challenge in a century,” he continued. “We can’t overcome it with half of Spain turning its back on the other half, or, what’s even worse, pitted against the other half. There is no such thing as a right-wing virus or a left-wing virus.”

I'm not a big fan of his rhetoric style, but for sure we need unity before adversity. However, this generation of Spanish politicians appears to be "the least prepared and most intolerant" of the present democratic period (the words between quotation marks belong to David Jiménez)

The new slogan aired by Sánchez is España Puede ("Spain Can"). I'm full of hope and goodwill.

Catalan affairs: Carles Puigdemont and a bunch of public officials (members of regional government, deputies, senators, mayors...) have broken officially their ties with the PDeCAT. The party launched by former premier Artur Mas* to replace the old CDC will presumably suffer a member drain. The Puuigdemont supporters and the PDeCAT leadership are now engaged in a judicial battle over the ownership of the JxCAT trademark. The split is inevitable and they will run separately in the upcoming elections: Puigdemont and his people in the new big tent cross-ideological project under the JxCAT banner (unless judges rule otherwise) on the one hand, and the PDeCAT in its own or allied to other splinters of the old Convergència (for instance, the new Catalan Nationalist Party led by Marta Pascal) on the other hand.

_{*Artur Mas stays in the PDeCAT atm.}

[Velasco]

According to Pedro Sánchez, the minor crisis between the coalition partners over the budget plan is over. Sánchez said that he had a meeting with Pablo Iglesias. On Friday past week UP threatened to vote against any budget agreement between PSOE and Cs

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-09-01/spains-prime-minister-plays-down-crisis-with-coalition-partner-over-upcoming-budget.html

Instead, Iglesias wants Sánchez to reach a deal with his own partners first; he is also demanding for Unidas Podemos representatives to be present at any future talks with Ciudadanos. On Tuesday, Sánchez said that “there has been no Unidas Podemos veto against Ciudadanos.”

“We are going to make a budget that incorporates the governing agreement with Unidas Podemos,” said the prime minister. “The draft budget will be a government agreement, but later we will have to talk to other parties. We will not veto anyone.”  

PSOE and UP are about to restart bilateral talks, with the repeal of the PP's Labour Reform as the main difference between coalition partners. UP wants a total repeal, while the PSOE prefers a partial repeal concerning the most harmful elements of the current labour legislation. Tax increases to the big fortunes and corporations have been postponed, although Sánchez said weeks ago it's needed an incease in revenue and that's only possible through a tax reform.

On the other hand, the appeals to Pablo Casado and the PP for support will be unheard. Pablo Casado will attend a meeting with Pedro Sánchez, but he has made clear his unwillingness to reach deals with the government. Now the pretext is UP, claiming that its presence in the government is an outrage because the Igesias' folks are "communists", "republicans" and "support the independence of Catalonia" (lol). Apparently Casado is not even willing to negotiate the much needed renewal of the General Council of the Judiciary, unless UP is expelled from the government (the actual reason is related to the PP's share of power, that should be diminished based on election results). Both PP and Cs perceive that UP is the weak link of the coalition government and press there. The Arrimadas party is apparently seeking to create inner dissension in the coalition government and arrange a more 'orthodox' budget with the socialists. Seemingly Pablo Casado is still in a dreamlike state, hoping that the failure of the budget negotiations leads to a snap election. Casado rejected the statements made by his former spokeswoman Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo, who advocated a Grand Coalition with the PSOE to defend the Spanish Constitution against evil communists and separatists, However, I suspect Casado would be glad to be the PM with the PSOE as junior partner. The problem is that he needs to win the next general elections. I think there's little concern for the general interest

[Velasco]

As said in the previous post, PP leader Pablo Casado rejects deals on budget and renewal of institutions

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-09-03/pp-chief-rules-out-deals-with-government-on-budget-renewal-of-institutions.html

Not even the coronavirus pandemic has changed the political dynamics between the two main parties in Spain. The leader of the main opposition Popular Party (PP), Pablo Casado, spent two hours in talks on Wednesday with Socialist Party (PSOE) Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, only to announce afterwards that his group would not lend the support needed in order to make new appointments in key institutions such as the Constitutional Court and the CGPJ legal watchdog.

Casado said that the PP would not provide the votes needed for such changes while the PSOE continued to govern in a coalition with junior partner Unidas Podemos, the leftist bloc headed by Pablo Iglesias and made up of his Podemos party and the United Left (IU).

In response, the Sánchez government has accused Casado of refusing to recognize the legitimacy of the coalition government. With his actions, Casado is also rejecting the “political truce” that the leader of the center-right Ciudadanos party, Inés Arrimadas, called for on Wednesday after having met with Sánchez. “We will all be judged for our actions during the pandemic,” Arrimadas said after her talks with the prime minister, at which the possibility of her party supporting the upcoming budget plan was a key issue.  

Casado is arguing that he is putting the brakes on the appointments in order to defend the constitutional structure of Spain. This argument is not only fallacious, it reveals contempt for the constitution and a deliberate strategy. Pablo Casado rejects to renew the General Council of the Judiciary or the Constitutional Court in order to preserve their conservative majorities, aiming to use the courts as a political battering ram against the government.

Pedro Sánchez has been meeting with other parliamentary leaders including Inés Arrimadas (Cs), Gabriel Rufián (ERC) and Aitor Esteban (PNV). Arrimadas is open to negotiate, despite she doesn't like the incumbent government

Casado’s attitude is in contrast to that of Ciudadanos leader Inés Arrimadas, who yesterday confirmed her “firm and real” commitment to negotiate a “moderate, sensible” budget, one that incorporates the financial assistance from the European Union to deal with the coronavirus pandemic and accompanying economic crisis, “and that do not contain ideologies contrary to what this country needs.” She accepted that Unidas Podemos would form part of these talks. “We may make mistakes,” she said of the need for the aforementioned “political truce,” but “we will be able to sleep with a clear conscience,” she concluded.

Sánchez and Rufián agreed to reactivate the bilateral round table between the central government and the Generalitat, arranging a meeting in mid September. This is a prerequisite to negotiate demanded by ERC and accepted by Sánchez. But there is a problem with that meeting, as the imminent rule of the Supreme Court on September 17 could disqualify premier Quim Torra from office. The Catalan premier is accused of disobedience because of the yellow ribbons in support of the jailed politicians that were hanging from the Generalitat balconies during the 2019 election campaign, ignoring the requests of the electoral commission (Junta Electoral). On the other hand, Torra has been never an enthusiast of the round tables with the Sánchez government, arguing that there's little to talk about when the right to self-determination is not recognized. Rufián stressed that ERC is incompatible with Cs, adding that party that "governs with Ayuso in Madrid and Vox in Andalusia" dhould not be compatible with the left. Other parties urge Sánchez to seek the support of those that voted or allowed his investiture, while socialists say they want to seek the broadest support possible.

Related to the pre-electoral tension and the conflict between the Puigdemont supporters (JxCAT) and the reminder of the PDeCAT (heir of CDC), premier Quim Torra made a little cabinet reshuffle sacking three members of the government from the JxCAT side. The most prominent members are Interior minister Miquel Buch (criticized by Torra during the October 2019 riots in Barcelona, only because the regional police tried to do its work and the role of Buch was cleaning the dirty dishes) and the last remaining PDeCAT member, the Enterprises minister Angels Chacón (mentioned as a possible top candidate for the upcoming elections). PDeCAT spokespersons claim this is a "political purge". In any case, this move made by Torra puts back the possibility of calling elections (speculations say the date will be postponed from autumn 2020 to early 2021, because a later date suits better Puigdemont's interests). The imminent rule of the Supreme Court and the likely disqualification of Torra add loads of uncertainty.

In contrast, the political climate in other places is calmer. Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) and Íñigo Urkullu (PNV) have been reelected in Galicia and Basque Country by their respective legislative assemblies. Feijóo was elected on a renewed majority, while Urkullu was elected on a renewed PNV-PSE coalition deal. Unlike in 2016, the PSE leader Idoia Mendia is going enter the Basque government this time (maybe as deputy premier)

[Velasco]

The prosecutor's office rejects to initiate an overall inquiry on the Podemos financing, but accepts to investigate the contract between the party and Neurona consulting. The complaint filed by the former Podemos lawyer José Manuel Calvente is deemed baseless and motivated by ill will*. The office also criticized thejudge who ordered proceedings preliminary to a trial based on that complaint. However the prosecutor agrees to investigate the contract with Neurona consulting prior to the 2019 campaign, based on a previous report by the Court of Auditors pointing to possible contractual irregularities. A relatively minor issue unrelated to big corruption schemes, in any case. Opening a legal case based solely on rumours and speculations is contrary to democratic principles, on the other hand.

*Calvente was sacked in early 2019 on alleged sexual harassment to a colleague, which was later dismissed by a judge. He was in the Podemos' staff since the very beginning in 2014.

Another judge has lifted the seal on an inquiry affecting the PP

https://english.elpais.com/politics/2020-09-08/spanish-spying-probe-points-at-top-popular-party-ex-officials.html

A court investigation codenamed Operation Kitchen has become a new time bomb for Spain’s conservative Popular Party (PP).

A judge at Spain’s High Court, the Audiencia Nacional, on Monday lifted the seal on an inquiry into an alleged spying operation designed within the Interior Ministry under the PP government of Mariano Rajoy (2011-2018), and aimed against the party’s own former treasurer Luis Bárcenas.

Bárcenas was a key figure in a long-running scandal involving allegations of illegal corporate donations and under-the-table cash bonuses for top party officials. In early 2013, this newspaper revealed the existence of handwritten ledgers, known as los papeles de Bárcenas, suggesting a parallel bookkeeping system for undeclared party funds. The former treasurer was also found to have millions of euros stashed away in Swiss bank accounts.  

In other news, the PDeCAT representatives in the Congress of Deputies and the Parliament of Catalonia will split from the JxCAT parliamentary groups in order to gain visibility. The party holds 4 seats in each parliament (out of 8 in Congress and out of 34 in the Catalan parliament). Contrary to the JxCAT stance, the PDeCAT is open to negotiate budget support with the Spanish government. The remaining PDeCAT members int eh Caralan parliament could hold the balance of power, but they won't jeopardize the incumbent government. On the other hand, the electoral viability of the pragmatic center-right nationalist parties seems dubious. A recent GAD3 poll released by La Vanguarida points to a pro-independence majority in popular vote, caused by a low turnout among the non-nationalists. The chances of the PDeCAT or the PNC to break into the parliament are slim on paper.

[Velasco]

In other news, the PDeCAT representatives in the Congress of Deputies and the Parliament of Catalonia will split from the JxCAT parliamentary groups

 I posted earlier the PDeCAT deputies will split from the JxCAT parliamentary groups,  but that's incorrect.  Apparently the PDeCAT members in the Catalan parliament want to remain in the JxCAT group, but acting independently. As for the PDeCAT representatives in Congress, I forgot that currently JxCAT lacks a parliamentary group there (possibly because JxCAT didn't reach 15% of the vote in all the Catalan provinces contested in general elections). The JxCAT deputies incorporated the so-called Plural group (created to clear the overcrowded Mixed Group) alongside Más País, BNG and Compromís. The composition of the Plural Group stands as follows; 4 JxCAT, 4 PDeCAT, 2 MP, 1 BNG and 1 Compromís

[Velasco]

Invymark poll

PSOE 28.6, PP 22.4, Vox 14.5, UP 11.3, Cs 7.3

A majority of the PSOE voters prefers budget deals with Cs, while a majority of UP voters favors ERC

There are rumours pointing to a change of alliances in Madrid. Ousting Ayuso would be a wonderful dream, but I won't believe it's possible until I see it. Ayuso's incompetence in handling the coronavirus crisis in Madrid is not the biggest of the PP's problems. The 'Kitchen' case might bring new surprises. Some people says it's going to be the Rajoy's Watergate

[Velasco]

NC Report poll released by La Razón for the region of Madrid

PP 39 seats (28 4%)
PSOE 37 seats (27.4%)
Cs 19 seats (14%)
MM 17 seats (13%)
VOX 12 seats (9 4%)
UP 8 seats (5 9%)

Swings: PP +9, UP +1, PSOE n.c, VOX n.c. MM -3, Cs -7

The PP led by Isabel Diaz Ayuso would increase with regard the May 2019 election, which was a historical low for the conservative party in Madrid. However, a GAD3 poll released by ABC four months ago (May 2020) was rewarding 57 seats to the PP. Ciudadanos and Mas Madrid are down with regard May 2019, but they are seemingly recovering ground if we compare NC Report and GAD3 polls. These projections might suggest that the confrontational attitude of Ayuso was initially successful, but the management of the covid ceisis is eroding her party (PP holds healthcare and education departments in the regional government). Deputy premier Ignacio Aguado (Cs) is taking a more cooperative aporoach with the central government, in order to take distance from Ayuso ( it's not asecret the relationship between PP and Cs regional leaders is bad). Mas Madrid was going down in the polls after the last general elections and the departure of Manuela Carmena, but apparently the healthcare spokesperson Monica Garcia is scoring points (it's remarkable the cooperative stance of the municipal spokeswoman Rita Maestre, otoh).

According to the NC Report poll Mas Madrid is the preferred party in the age group between 18 and 29, the PSOE comes first in the age group between 30 and 44 and the PP wins in the age groups above 45

[Velasco]

Yesterday night I watched the news at Canal 24h and heard the retired general Juan Chicharro, chairman of the Francoist foundation, who was interviewed by phone in order to know his opinion of the historical memory draft bill. The man was truly angry and claimed the bill is a liberticide perpetrated by the 'social-communist regime'. Then the news show host asked Mr Chicharro if he thinks there was more freedom under the Franco regime, as well as reminded him that apologists for Nazism are banned in Germany (this was challenged by Chicharro, amazingly). Juan Chicharro will consider to relocate his foundation in a "free country", in case this draft bill goes forward

There's some degree of kinship between Juan Chicharro and the Vox secretary general Javier Ortega Smith. Both are cousins of a female general recently appointed by the incumbent Defence minister of the 'social-communist regime' Margarita Robles

https://www.elmundo.es/loc/famosos/2019/08/31/5d67c594fc6c833c058b4619.html

The Benedictine monks will be expelled from Valle de los Caidos and the descendants of the International Brigades members will be offered Spanish citizenship

https://english.elpais.com/spanish_news/2020-09-15/spain-drafts-bill-against-remaining-legacy-of-franco-era.html

The Spanish Cabinet on Tuesday approved a draft bill containing a raft of measures that address the legacy of the civil war (1936-39) and the Francisco Franco regime, which lasted until the dictator’s death in 1975.

The Democratic Memory bill, which builds on existing historical memory legislation, contemplates closing down associations that still glorify the late dictator’s memory, including the Francisco Franco Foundation, which will be declared illegal (...)
 

[Velasco]

Glorious news!

Franco's grave had already been moved last year, right?

Will PP / Cs / Vox vote against the bill?

Yes, the Franco's grave was finally moved from Valle de los Caídos on October 24 past year.

Vox will oppose the draft bill in all likelihood, claiming that this is a revenge of the illegitimate social-communist regime. The attitude of PP and Cs with regard the historical memory is usually ranging between indifference, ambivalence and hostility. I expect that both parties abstain, claiming as usual that we don't need to go back on the past. Their spokespersons are already saying that the government throws up a smokescreen as a distraction from more pressing issues. These parties are uncomfortable for different reasons. Vox is the Francoist party (even though they would reject that label) and a radical right-wing split from the PP; the PP is the big party of the Spanish right with roots in the Francoist regime; Cs is a new party with leaders like Albert Rivera and Inés Arrimadas born in the democratic period that don't care about the past.

[Velasco]

I read this thread and I was surprised to find out that Spain is considering banning an organization I am surprised even exists. The Francoist foundation doesn’t sound like a friend of democracy and probably appeals to ultra conservative Catholics and xenophobes.

You can bet the Francisco Franco National Foundation is not a friend of the democratic regime.

Unlike other countries, Spain is not a "militant democracy". Parties and organizations are not obliged to accept the constitutional regime in order to exist. Elected officials must promise or pledge to observe the Constitution. However, advocating a republican regime instead of the constitutional monarchy or the independence of a region from Spain are permitted. There's a Political Parties Law aimed at "guarantee the functioning of the democratic system". That legislation allows to ban parties that "repeatedly and severely"attempt against the democratic regime, advocate racism and xenophobia, or support violence and the activities of terrorist groups. But this law was passed in order to pave the way to outlaw Herri Batasuna, regarded the political wing of the Basque terrorist group ETA (the law was passed in June 2002 and Herri Batasuna was banned in March 2003).

Until now Spain lacked a legislation that bans organizations advocating the past dictatorial regime. Worse still: the Francoist foundation received public funds from the Aznar administration, while historians comlain because the personal files of Francisco Franco guarded by the foundation are not accessible for researchers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francisco_Franco_National_Foundation

The Francisco Franco National Foundation[ (Spanish: Fundación Nacional Francisco Franco, FNFF for short[4]) or National Francisco Franco Foundation is a foundation created in 1976[5] which promotes a positive interpretation of the Spanish dictator Francisco Franco. The only child of Franco, Carmen Franco (1926-2017) led the organisation and later became its honorary president.

In 2017 200,000 people signed a petition, calling on the Spanish government to ban the organisation.

In 2018, after new Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez promised that Franco's remains would be removed from the Valley of the Fallen, the Foundation collected a petition with 24,000 signatures to oppose the proposal, with its leader, General Juan Chicharro Ortega, calling the site a "monument to reconciliation".  

[Velasco]

Regarding the CIS poll, it's the first time Cs is in double digits since 2019. Given the questioned credibility of Mr Tezanos, I guess the figure reveals that it's important to treat well the party of Ms Arrimadas at this juncture. Pedro Sánchez wishes to attract Cs to his orbit, not only because he needs the votes to pass the budget.

 Appatently Cs is unwilling to break the troubled coalition with the PP in Madrid, despite it was rumoured that the PSOE would be willing to reinforce Cs granting the region's presidency to the oranges ( with the neccessary cooperation of Más Madrid). According to the PSOE candidate Ángel Gabilondo, Cs refuses to talk with him about a motion of no confidence. However the premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso looked very worried in a recent debate on the state of the Madrid region. She was considering to call a snap election months ago, when she had favourable polls, but Pablo Casado prevented her to do so. In case she feels her position is unsecure because Cs has the intent to break away, she would prefer a snap election to a no confidence motion. Apparently there are not going to be new developments and the PP-Cs coalición will continue to handle with the coronavirus outbreaks in Madrid, quite possibly the hardest hit European region at this moment

[Velasco]

The Castilles have but they don't get traction outside of UPL (Unión del Pueblo Leonés) which is not Castillian but rather Leonese-regionalist.

Castilian regionalism is indeed irrelevant, aside the Leonese People's Unión (UPL) that advocates the separation of León in order to regain its former regional status. There are small fringe parties like Tierra Comunera or the Castilian Party, though

Más Madrid could be regarded a regional party, too. In the beginning it was a party founded to run in local and regional elections, even though Íñigo Errejón launched the Más País experiment months later in order to run in the last general elections. I think Más Madrid is a fully autonomous organization. Currently the MM leader is Mónica Garcia, who is also a doctor and the party's healthcare spokesperson. The spokesman in the regional assembly is Pablo Gómez Perpinyà , a close friend of Errejón, while the leader of the municipal group is Rita Maestre. I don't have a clue about the future of Más País