Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

Former PM was today in Congress, told a lot of lies and seemed to be very delighted with himself. It's hard to explain how arrogant and unpleasant can be this insufferable little man

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/09/18/inenglish/1537279288_066798.html

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In other news, Pedro Sánchez proposes a constitutional reform in order that MPs can be judged by ordinary courts for charges unrelated to their official duties

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/09/17/inenglish/1537192289_050046.html

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This proposed 'express reform' seems extemporaneous and doomed to fail. given that the PP support is necessary and that party is not willing to. I don't know if it will work as a public relations campaign. Spanish Congress voted today a motion on the same subject put forward by Cs. PP and PSOE supported it but took advantage to attack Cs. Podemos and PNV voted against because Cs rejected an amendment on removing the king's inviolability. Catalan separatists voted against too. The value of the motion is merely symbolic.

Major news, Spain has rejected an extradition request on the behalf of the Swiss gov for an HSBC whistleblower
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hsbc-tax-spain/spain-rejects-latest-swiss-bid-to-extradite-hsbc-whistleblower-idUSKCN1LY1EG
How are banks viewed in Spain, are chains viewed similarly or more intense than in the states.

The argument to deny extradition is that there's nothing in the Spanish criminal code similar to 0aggravated financial espionage', which may indicate that bank secrecy is much more important in Switzerland. This week Belgium rejected the extradition of a rap 'artist' called Valtònyc because 'glorification of terrorism' and 'insult to the Crown' don't exist in the Belgian code. Answering your question, I think that rhe banks were seen better before the last financial crisis and the bailout to the Spanish banks.

[Velasco]

There have been insistent rumours in the last months that placed former French PM Manuel Valls as possible candidate for Mayor of Barcelona, presumably on the top of a 'constitutionalist' independent list backed by Cs. A Paris Match cover released in late August featured Manuel Valls with his new girlfriend Susana Gallardo. According to Paris Match Mr Valls has found happiness with Gallardo, portrayed by the French magazine as a Catalan businesswoman committed to the unity of Spain. Manuel Valls, who was born in Barcelona, implied in a recent interview that personal factors could influence his decision to run for mayor in the local elections next year. He said that he would make a decision at the end of summer. It's yet to confirm (within a few days), but there are two related news that may indicate something:

 1) There's an online petition demanding the resignation of Manuel Valls as member of the French National Assembly, because the promoters consider that Valls has became a "ghost deputy" that spends too much timer in Spain preparing his candidacy for Barcelona.

https://www.change.org/p/farida-amrani-exigeons-la-d%C3%A9mission-de-manuel-valls-d%C3%A9put%C3%A9-fant%C3%B4me-de-l-assembl%C3%A9e-nationale

2) According to El Periódico, Manuel Valls is beginning to organize his campaign. Valls would have offered a post of adviser to Xavier Roig, a man who was the right hand of former mayor Pasqual Maragall (PSC). Maragall was in office between 1983 and 1996 and during his tenure the <Barcelona Olympic Games took place, later he became premier of Catalonia (2003-2006) in re`placement pf Jordi Pujol. Hiring Roig could be an asset for Valls, in order to arm a strong candidacy in Barcelona.

https://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20180918/valls-ofrece-campana-electoral-xavier-roig-7041748

Manuel Valls and Susana Gallardo in Paris Match:

https://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Manuel-Valls-Susana-Gallardo-son-nouvel-amour-1570858

In case Valls decides to run, his main rivals would be incumbent mayor Ada Cola (BComú, backed by Podemos)u and the pro-independence candidate backed by Puigdemoint (presumably Ferran Mascarell. formerly in PSC). It's unclear if pro-independence parties will form a unity list (Puigdemont list and ERC) or run in their own.

I

[Velasco]

RIP Spain. Although to be honest Valls fits so well Ciudadanos

Manuel Valls would like to be candidate of a 'constitutionalist' coalition with Cs, PSC and PP. It's highly unlikely that Catalan Socialists accept to be in that list. Maybe PP could consider to join if polls say they would disappear from the city council, but I'm not sure. Cs leader is very enthusiastic with the possibility and he would like that Manuel Valls was the candidate of his party, but the French politician prefers a broader coalition. There is an evident affinity between Rivera and Valls and the latter seems to have plans to stay in Barcelona. I don't like Valls, but I think the campaign would be very interesting with him running. In any case, his chances of winning a majority are null and his chances of placing first depend on external factors (i.e the unity of the pro-independence parties or the Ada Colau's resilience). If he was to be the mayor, I'd say "poor Barcelona", but I don't think this is the likeliest outcome.

[Velasco]

Finally, in non polling related news, Manuel Valls is officially in as Cs' candidate for Barcelona mayor

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/former-french-pm-seeks-political-redemption-in-barcelona-1.3640045

Lara says he would rather not be just C's, later confirmed in the official announcement of his non-party candidacy, and from Le Monde I learned a new word to me, "le parachutage".

Exactly. Valls will run as an independent candidate with the support of Cs.

The CIS poll is not credible. Anyway the PSOE resists on the top, making gains at the expense of Podemos. The Pedro Sánchez government is like a fortress under siege and the grace period comes to an end. The Dolores Delgado affair is clearly blackmail. PP and Cs fight for the second place, with advantage for the latter. The radicalization of Casado (PP) and Rivera (Cs) might be boosting Vox.

[Velasco]

Yesterday it was the anniversary of the illegal referendum called by the separatist government of Catalonia. It wasn't a a legally valid referendum and the results were not internationally approved. However the October 1 will be remembered by the unnecessary police brutality, which was the visible consequence of the Rajoy's awkwardness. About 2 million of Catalans, overwhelmingly pro-independence, turned out on that day to express their desire to vote. I think the leaders of the independence movement of Catalonia are a bunch of liars that have fed their people with false hopes and false arguments. Anyway there is some Spanish centralist nationalism that is even worse, Those citizens were excercising their freedom of expression and casting ballots in a fake referendum does not harm anybody. The disproportionate police response damaged the international reputation of Spain.

The independence movement claims to be peaceful and civil. This has been true so far, but there are disturbing signs on the horizon. Yesterday 'radical separatists'  tried to storm the Parliament of Catalonia

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/10/02/inenglish/1538467014_334868.html

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[Velasco]

And speaking of Catalonia, Catalan premier Quim Torra has sent an ultimatum to the Spanish government: either Sánchez starts negotiating a real and internationally recognized referendum before November, or they'll drop support of the Sánchez government in Congress (almost certainly meaning a snap general election).

As expected, the Spanish government has already rejected that, claiming they are in support of (more) self-government, but not of self-determination. They also reject reactivating article 155 as some in Cs and PP are asking though.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/10/02/actualidad/1538498312_253041.html
https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/10/02/catalunya/1538491575_334391.html?rel=str_articulo#1538505650468

The ultimatum failed in less than 24 hours, due to the lack of support from ERC and PDeCAT. Premier Quim Torra, who is an independent elected in the Puigdemont list (JxCAT), acted in his own without talking with the parties supporting his government (I ignore if he contacted Puigdemont and his Waterloo clique). Torra was asked to resign in previous days by the 'radical separatists' of the CDR (Committees to Defend the Republic, close to the CUP) and by the 'unionist' opposition (PP and Cs). Just before the October 1 anniversary Catalan premier encouraged the self-organized CDR groups to keep pressure in the streets. Hardline separatist Torra was being called 'traitor' by the CDR radicals because of previous incidents with the regional police and because his government isn't implementing the 'Catalan Republic'. Kind words didn't ingratiate Torra with the 'radicals', whom tried to storm the regional parliament after the October 1 demonstration forcing regional police to repeal them. These incidents prove that the separatist parties and organizations (ANC, Òmnium) are the losing control of the treets, as well as show the incompetence of the regional government. As for the ultimatum ensuing the riots, it shows that Torra is an amateurish and incompetent gambler unworthy of Machiavelli. I think Catalan parties are aware that making Pedro Sánchez to fall will benefit Pablo Casado and Albert Rivera- Unlike Sánchez, Casado and Rivera don't want to talk with separatists. The two parties of the Spanish Right want to implement article 155 again, imposing again direct rule in Catalonia and extending the control of the central government to education, TV and radio. Casado also wants to outlaw separatist parties.

Days ago Quim Torra sent a letter to the Spanish PM copied to world leaders

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/10/04/inenglish/1538642944_252769.html

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[Velasco]

Ousted Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont launched a new party, on the anniversary of the unilateral declaration of independence. RIP Convergència / PDeCAT

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/27/ousted-catalan-leader-carles-puigdemont-launches-new-party

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[Velasco]

So, basically Convergencia's newest outfit, after DiL; PDECat and JxCat? Or will this be different somehow?

The Crida Nacional is aimed to be a political movement that unites the pro-independence people under the leadership of Carles Puigdemont. However, there is an increasing division in the separatist camp. The relationship between premier Carles Puigdemont and deputy premier Oriol Junqieras was already bad a year ago. By that time Puigdemont was convinced by some people (Basque premier Íñigo Urkullu, former regional minister Santi Vila and others) to call a snap election in order to prevent the intervention of central government in Catalonia. But Puigdemont couldn't resist the pressure from ERC , people within his own party and the pro-independence associations (ANC, Ômnium). They considered that calling regional elections after the October 1 'referendum' was a concession to the Spanish state and were pushing for the UDI. The premier could not bear the idea of being called "traitor" by his people and turned back (the infamous"155 silver coins" tweet wrote by ERC deputy Gabriel Rufián did a lot of harm). However ERC has turned to a more moderate and pragmatic stance (broadening social base for independence, abandoning unilateralism)  after the UDI failure, the intervention of central government and the imprisonment of its leader Oriol Junqueras. In contrast Puigdemont and his inner circle remain on a more radical secessionist stance from their base at the Waterloo mansion, near Brussels. Puigdemont took over the PDeCAT in the party convention held in July, relegating moderate leaders like Marta Pascal (she was key in the no-confidence motion: the woman that ousted Rajoy). The party agreed to join the projected new political movement, the Crida Nacional. I believe that PDeCAT will retain party status by now, but this is probably the death of the old Convergéncia*.

*In short:

PDeCAT (Catalan European Democratic Party) is the refundation of the CDC (Democratic Convergence of Catalonia), disbanded in July 2016 at a convention held in Barcelona. Former premier Artur Mas was the last leader of CDC and the iirst leader the new party,.

DiL (Democracy and Freedom) was a coalition between CDC and a minor party called Democrats of Catalonia (splitted from UDC) for the 2015 Spanish general election. CDC ran in its own in the 2016 general election.

JxCAT (Together for Catalonia) was a coalition between the PDeCAT, CDC (which retained legal registration despite refoundation, allowing JxCAT to get time in TV) and independents to contest the December 2017 regional election. Actually it was a personal vehicle for Puigdemont, who placed like-minded independents in top positions marginalizing PDeCAT members.

The battle between the new Crida Nacional and ERC in next year's local elections promises to be tough.

[Velasco]

ERC announced that Oriol Junqueras will be candidate for the EP elections. A party spokesman dismissed the possibility of a joint pro-independence list, arguing that ERC and JxCAT/Crida get better results when they run in their own. Junqueras is the ERC leader and was the deputy premier in Puigdemont's government. He is in preventive detention since November 2017.

Previously the spokeswoman of the Catalan government Elsa Artadi supported a joint list for theEuropean Parliament and the Barcelona City Hall, suggesting that JxCAT/Crida would accept that Junqueras tops the EP list. Artadi is economist and one of the top persons in JxCAT. Formerly in the PDeCAT, she's now an independent and a Puigdemont loyal.

As said above, ERC is unwilling to dissolve in a coalition. Besides the candidacy of Junqueras, ERC nominated Ernest Maragall candidate for Mayor of Barcelona. Maragall was in the PSC and is brother of former Catalan premier and Mayor of Barcelona Pasqual Maragall. JxCAT/Crida have no candidate yet. Possible candidates are former regional ministers Ferran Mscarell (also a former PSC member), Neus Munté and Joaquim Forn (both PDeCAT, formerly CDC). Polls are consistently placing ERC ahead of the heirs of Convergència (PDeCAT, JxCAT, Crida, whatever).

PDeCAT chairman David Bonvehí says there will be a consult to the membership on the way they will coalesce in the Crida Nacional.

[Velasco]

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Ernest Maragall interviewed by Stephen Sackur (Hard Talk, BBC). Great

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=641&v=vUzu8UUbvGA&fbclid=IwAR0du2cTPwOcXNT65m8Sgo0LrnWieZtks8aYr9pgJwIBBbCoQFM41OWCXi0

[Velasco]

AxSí (and the other minor Andalusian nationalist lists) might also be interesting to watch just to see how dead Andalusian nationalism is. AxSí is the spiritual successor to the old Andalusian Party (PA) dissolved in 2016. 

AxSÍ is clearly borrowing its name from Catalan separatists: see Junts pel Sí (JxSÍ) and Catalunya Sí (a coalition led by ERC). This might lead to confusion in what regard the goals of these Andalusian nationalists. From what I'm reading in their political manifesto, they are not calling for the independence of Andalusia. They advocate for the full development of self-government, federalism, multinational state, etcetera.

Nación Andaluza ("Andalusian Nation", NA) is openly separatist. According to the party's web page, NA is pro-independence, socialist and feminist. It's also a "sovereigntist, anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist collectivity" and its goal is to achieve "the national liberation of our Country and the social liberation of our People".

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This split continues a long established tradition in far -left parties. The Communist Party of the Spanish People (PCPE) is an old splinter of the Communist Party of Spain (PCE) founded in 1984. I met secretary general Carmelo Suárez years ago, because he was living in the same estate that some old friend of mine. Suárez is architect and I think he and the fathers of my friend had a cooperative housing society. Long live Marx and Lenin!

 

[Velasco]

I don't know if the AxSÍ party is more or less nationalist than the old PA, which was a centre-left regionalist party. Personally I'd use the word "regionalist" rather than "unionist" to characterize this kind of regional parties because: a) "unionist" has some "centralist" connotation (Cs and UPyD would fit perfectly here, while Vox would be extreme unionist"); b) there are regional parties that are not openly separatist but are somewhat sovereigntist (Compromís and Catalunya en Comú come to my mind). Also, there are regional parties with little to none sovereigntist elements (CC*, PRC, UPN...). I think AxSI does not fit in the last category because its manifesto has mentions to "federalism" and the "multinational state" (estado plurinacional).

In any case, prior to 1984 the PA was called Socialist Alliance of Andalusia and later Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSA, from 1979 to 1984). There is a curious fact: the PSA contested the first Catalan election held in 1980, getting 2.66% of the vote and winning 2 seats in Barcelona province. The PSA/PA did not contest subsequent Catalan elections, but a winning seats in 1980 indicates the importance of Andalusian immigration in Catalonia. There were 840k Andalusians living in Catalonia in the early 70s and currently there are 1.1 million of people of Andalusian heritage living there. Catalonia is called sometimes the "9th Andalusian province"

Because of the above mentioned, the political crisis in Catalonia is going to be (presumably) an important issue in the Andalusian campaign. Especially in the case of the Cs campaign, because the leader of the oranges in Catalonia Inés Arrimadas was born in Andalusia (Jerez de la Frontera) and the Cs leader Albert Rivera is a Catalan with Andalusian ancestry. Both Rivera and Arrimadas are going to campaign in support of low-profile candidate Juan Marín. The Andalusian election is very important to Cs in its aim to replace the PP as the main party of the Spanish centre-right and the main alternative to PSOE in the southern region.

*_{Actually there are a few sovereigntist and nationalist elements in CC, that is a heterogeneous coalition of regional and insular parties. Anyway, CC is above all a regional interests party and is far from being a threat to the unity of Spain.}

[Velasco]

The government is being attacked from all sides. The Spanish Right claims treason, while Catalan separatists say that they are disappointed

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/02/inenglish/1541146388_493726.html

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Right now ERC and PDeCAT are unwilling to vote the budget and it seems difficult that they change their minds. Trial against Catalan separatist leaders begins in January; political climate won't favour agreements. The Pedro Sánchez government is already in a weak position. With no budget and attacked from two sides, holding on government means constant wear. With these bleak picture, we cannot rule out general elections in May. 

[Velasco]

This could backfire on the separatists. If an early election is called and PP and C's win a majority, they better get ready...

That would be a gloomy prospect, IMO. In case PP and Cs win a majority and implement direct rule in Catalonia again, but in a harsher way, then it'd be better that Spain gets ready. I think it's obvious that the course of action proposed by the Spanish Right won't address the real problem: the existence of separatist feelings in Catalonia. I have the impression that repressive measures would be bad for the unity of Spain in the mid term. As far as I know, neither Casado nor Rivera are proposing any kind of measure that could lead to a meaningful solution to the Catalan conundrum. For instance, Casado could not claim that banning separatist parties will end separatism without insulting intelligence.

[Velasco]

In case separatists chhose again frontal collision and the "wose is better" strategy, that could backfire on them. The escalation of the conflict would affect Catalonia in all respects: struggling economy, increasing social tension and so on. The srustration caused by dashed illusions is potentially very dangerous.

[Velasco]

Catalan separatist leaders breached the law. I think that the 'disconnection law' passed by the Parliament of Catalonia in September 2017 and the unilateral declaration of independence in October 2017 are more serious breaches than the referendum itself. As I see it, the vote held on October 1 was merely symbolic, a big demonstration of people demanding a real referendum of independence. But the so-called 'disconnection law' was aimed to provide some cover to the process of secession from Spain. Separatists put themselves outside the law, unilaterally and lacking of popular legitimacy (pro-independence parties represent 47.5% of voters). The unilateral declaration of independence on October 27 was a tragic nonsense (there was a sharp contrast that day between the somber atmosphere inside the parliament and the people waiting outside). Separatist leaders later claimed that the declaration was merely symbolic and they were kidding around (according to Clara Ponsatí), but they knew that article 155 was ready to be implemented and feared the legal consequences of their actions.

 It's obvious that the Judiciary must act when legality is breached, but implementing the principle of proportionality. I too believe that the charge of rebellion and the 25 years are disproportionate. Also, the recurring claim of the Spanish Right and associate media is ridicolous: they should turn to a dictionary, because what happened a year ago in Catalonia wasn't a coup. But beaching the law must have consequences, so the people involved in past year's events must be accused of something. Opposition parties are pressing from opposite sides: the Spanish Right cries "coup" and "rebellion", separatists demand absolution. I think it's clear the government is not handling well rhis convoluted situation.

I believe that any kind of political solution will have to involve pardon for the separatist leaders. The problem is that a heavy and disproportionate punishment will make a political solution very difficult. 

[Velasco]

Cs held a political event today in a town called Alsasua (Altsasu in Basque), located in the north of Navarre. Albert Rivera achieved an unprecedented feat: uniting the parties of the right and the far-right (Cs,PP and Vox) in defense of the Constitution, the Unity of Spain and the Guardia Civil.

Two years ago, two members of the Guardia Civil (Spanish military police) were attacked by a group of young radical nationalists in a bar. The policemen were beaten and insulted at night in the town centre; they were out of service and having a drink with their partners. The attackers were sentenced to prison on terms hanging from 2 and 13 years. The judges didn't find evidence of terrorism or links to ETA, but considered other aggravating circumstances such as abuse of superiority and ideological hatred. The sentence was deemed excessive by relatives and neighbours, whom consider the incidents were only a tavern fight. There were some protests.

Albert Rivera spoke only 50 meters away from the scene, protected by a strong police force from a thousand radical Basque nationalists. The Cs leader proclaimed that "here in Alsasua constitutionalism can be reinforced and sanchismo weakened", inviting attendants to "shake hands around the constitution" to stop the evil Pedro Sánchez.

Protesters made noise to sabotage the event, ringing the bells of the town church (without priest permission) while an ETA victim was speaking. The night before someone left dung in the event's place. Police agents escorted Cs members and the rest of attendants, while a group of Alsasua neighbours put themselves between the radical protesters and the riot police to keep peace.

A couple of PP officials and Vox leader Santiago Abascal attended the event. Some PSOE official said that the event "exacerbates conflict", while the Alsasua mayor (Geroa Bai) deemed it as a "provocation"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/04/actualidad/1541327690_538842.html

Altsasu/Alsasua has a population of around 7,000 . It's located next to the Basque border in a Basque speaking area and Basque nationalist parties are strong there.

Results of the 2015 local elections in Alsasua:

Nafarroa Bai-Geroa Bai 36.8% 5 councilors
EH Bildu 21.4% 3 councilors
PSOE 13.5% 2 councilors
Goazen Altsasu (likely Podemos outfit) 12.3% 2 councilors
UPN 6.6% 1 councilor

Mayor: Javier Ollo (Geroa Bai)

[Velasco]

So we have Celeste Tel and NC Report predicting a poor result for CS, that would stay in the 4th place. And we have this one saying that Cs will get a very strong result and will come second, besides surprisingly good result for Vox in a region where nobody would give the far-right a chance. Which one should I trust?

I assume that Cs will grow, but I think that surpassing the PP to come second won't be easy. Neither CS nor PP have good candidates, but their national leaders will campaign hard. Inés Arrimadas and Albert Rivera have Andalusian background and that's an advantage for Cs. PP gains un territorial implementation and this is an advantage in the campaign. PSOE will resist, but is losing ground every election. Too many years in power. It seems that the coalition between Podemos and IU will retain or increase the 20 seats they got separately ln 2015, despite they would lose some votes. IU didn't win seats  in certain provinces and the votes were wasted. Running in coalition compensates the loses.

Oranges have promised that they won't support Susana Díaz again. This leaves collaboration between PSOE and Ahora Andalucía as the only viable option, because PP and Cs won't have the numbers. The problem is that Susana Díaz and Teresa Rodríguez don't like each other. Susana Díaz is in the right wing of her party; she would be more comfortable dealing with Cs. Teresa Rodríguez is in the left wing of Podemos, in the trotskyst faction known as Anticapitalistas.

[Velasco]

El País released a poll for the Andalusian elections conducted by 40dB (Belén Barreiro) instead of the usual Metroscopia (at last)

PSOE comes first with loses, as everybody predicts. Tight contest for the seond place between PP, AA and Cs. Vox at the gates of the Andalusian Parliament. Holding on the second place could save Pablo Casado's face despite the heavy loses. Losing the second place to Cs or AA would be catastrophic for the PP. There is concern in the PP and Cs ranks caused by the rise of Vox. Pablo Casado is campaigning frantically throughout Andalusia conveying messages such as "immigrants must adapt to western customs or leave". I think such statements are not useful to stop the Vox rise, as they only amplify the anti-immigrant message of the far-right party. Anyway Casado has said that he has coincidences with Satiago Abascal and even has praised the man (don't forget that Vox is basically a radical PP split). Cs has chosen to ignore Vox and I'm not sure that's the best way to deal with it, but possibly it's etter than the other way. Both Casado and Rivera are visibly uncomfortable when asked about Vox and refuse to say that it's a far-right party.

The Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo predicts an even better result for Vox

There is a certain climate of weariness and debasementof political debate that favours anti-political speech. This week there was a lamentable squabble in Congress between ERC deputy Gabriel Rufián (a cartoonish ruffianesque provocateur, tweeter politician) and the Foreign Affairs minister Josep Borrell (smart and vocal anti-separatist born in Catalonia). Rufián was expelled from the the plenary room by Speaker Ana Pastor. On the other hand, it's becoming usual that Catalan nationalists and the parties of the Spanish Right exchange insults. PP and Cs spokepersons use to say that the Catalan separatists are "golpistas" ("coup plotters"); ERC spokepersons reply that PP and Cs are "fascist". Rufián called "fascist" to Borrell as well. Borrell replied that Rufián pours dung and sawdust because he doesn't know how to do anything else. Speaker Ana Pastor, whp is from PP, requested that all mentions to "fascists" and "coup plotters" were erased from session records. The environment sucks these days.  

In other news Pedro Sánchez announced a deal on Gibraltar and unblocks the Brexit summit

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/24/inenglish/1543070447_943022.html

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Gibraltar is relevant for the Andalusian campaign for obvious geographical reasons. The Spanish government approved recently an investment plan for the Campo de Gibraltar, located around the Rock in Cádiz province. There is a sharp contrast between the richness of the Rock ( tax haven and smugglers' nest) and the Campo de Gibraltar, a region that suffers high unemployment and the increasing activities of drug trafficking cartels.

[Velasco]

Celeste-Tel (eldiario.es) and NC Report (La Razón) are more 'conservative' in their predictions for the upcoming Andalusian election (December 2), downplaying the growth of Cs and the 'Vox effect'. Both pollsters predict similar results, with PP and Vox slightly higher in the case of NC Report. That's not strange given that their chief pollsters have a a personal link. According to Celeste-Tel, the result would be:

According to Narciso Michavila, who is the chief pollster of GAD3, 70% of Vox voters are male. Also, there is a higher percentage of voters switching between Cs and Vox than voters switching btween PP and Vox. Michavila explains that Cs voters are placed more to the centre but they are also more prone to change to a new party. There are three variables in this campaign, says the pollster: a) the left/right axis, b) the crisis of Catalonia (the right campaigning against the "coup plotters" and their accomplices Pedro Sánchez and the evil populists), and c) the feminist vindication. Michavila says that some men are looking to Vox as a reaction to the feminist wave, to the point that 10% of Vox voters comes from the left and is overwhelmingly male. Vox advocates the supression of the Gender Violence Law passed during the years of Rodríguez Zapatero (PSOE). The law is attacked by male chauvinists arguing that it goes against men.

La Vanguardia show us the correlation between vote and unemployment with maps. Historically municipalities with higher unemployment rates lean to the left (PSOE and IU to a lesser extent) and the municipalities with lower unemployment rates to the right (PP). The maps of the 2015 elections suggest that there is high a correlation between unemployment rate and vote for Podemos.

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20181125/453103700535/elecciones-andalucia-influencia-paro-comportamiento-electoral.html

Eldiario.es tells that PSOE is the winning force in more than a half of the Andalusian municipalities since the first regional election held in 1982. These municipalities are predominantly rural and small sized, located in the provinces of Seville, Jaén and Huelva. PSOE hegemony ith maps:

https://www.eldiario.es/andalucia/hegemonia-PSOE-Andalucia-invicto-municipios_0_838166410.html

[Velasco]

Looking at the rest of the information, on Vox voters, I'd certainly not call everyone who wants to repeal the Gender Violence law of 2005 "male chovinists". There are legitimate reaons to want reform of that law, if I understand correctly it strips men of due process and "innocent until proven guilty" under certain circumstances (remember Cs originally wanted to repeal it as well)

Then again, that law was surprisingly passed unanimously, 332-0, and most parliamentary resolutions regarding "gender violence" pass unanimously so I imagine Vox will be the odd one out here.

There is a difference between reforming specific elements of a piece of legislation and repealing a law. The repeal of the legislation against gender based violence implies the rejection of its goals and philosophy. The aim of this law is to protect women from the violence that some men use against them. The rationale is that there exists a specific type of violence against women that is related to their historical discrimination and inferior position in society. Despite men and women are equal before the law nowadays, centuries of discrimination have ingrained machista attitudes and a sense of superiority in some men that sometimes are cause of violence. Male chauvinists use to argue this law discriminates men and deny the very existence of gender based violence, despite the fact that women are actually abused and killed. This law has elements of positive discrimination that may be controversial for some, but they are motivated by this historical discrimination and the need to protect women against this type of violence. I don't believe this law violates the presumption of innocence (would it be constitutional?).

The protection of women against gender based violence is one of the few issues where the different political forces found consensus. It may seem surprising, given that confrontation often dominates Spanish politics. This consensus allowed to pass a pioneering law for tackling gender violence from all perspectives. Also, it reflects the feelings and the alarm of the Spanish society with regards to the phenomenon of gender based violence. Despite possible defects or elements  subject to reform (i.e the protection of minor children or the issue with same sex couples), being the first country in Europe to pass a law like this is a matter of pride.

During the 2015 campaign Ciudadanos (by then a non-parliamentary force) advocated the repeal of the law based on a false idea of equality. Oranges were bashed for good reasons and had to rectify. Toni Cantó (Cs deputy, formerly UPyD) tweeted once that a majority of gender violence allegations is false and later had to apologize for believing false information posted on internet. One of the usual strategies of the male activists on the internet is overstating the significance of false allegations without empirical evidence, but they are in fact statistically irrelevant. I have read certain columnists claiming that men in Spain suffer a "silent Holocaust" because of this law, which is hyperbolic, false and nonsensical. Male chauvinism exists and Vox embraces it, as it embraces jingoism, xenophobia and other reactionary causes. I guess they are things a far-right party stands for.

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I agree on the first part: Cs voters tend to be volatile. I disagree on the rest. <to begin with, what is a "populist voter"? I assume that many individuals lack solid ideological convictions, but I suspect that they are not only Podemos and Cs voters. According to Michavila, 10% of Vox voters would come from the left and that's worth noting. However it's not enough to build a theory in the style of "the bulk of the Front National voters were communist supporters". Vox catches primarily in the PP and Cs fishing grounds.

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The maps don't need to be surprising. They must be illustrative and useful, especially for outsiders and non-experts.

EDIT: The variables in the Andalusian campaign are 4 (ideology, Catalan crisis, immigration and feminism) and not 3.

[Velasco]

Final prediction of Kiko Llaneras (aka the Spanish Nate Silver) for El País based on average polling.

Vote share: PSOE 32.8%, PP 21.4%, AA 19.5%, Cs 18%, VOX 4.7%

Probability of winning a majority:

PSOE alone 1%, PSOE+AA 96%, PSOE+Cs 91%, PP+Cs 3% (with VOX 4%)

Seats by province (deep blue: safe, light blue: likely, yellow: at stake)

Contest for the second place:  PP 70%, AA 17%, Cs 11%

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/28/actualidad/1543408692_128203.html

[Velasco]

Politico: "Spanish Right eyes deep south"
https://www.politico.eu/article/andalucia-election-ciudadanos-spanish-right-eyes-deep-south/

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The article linked above is focused on Ciudadanos. Inés Arrimadas, the Cs leader in Catalonia, was born in Andalusia (Jerez de la Frontera) and is very popular there. While campaigning in the Triana, the neighbourhood in Seville where Susana Díaz is from, people greets Arrimadas calling her "heroine". She overshadows completely candidate Juan Marín, who is walking by her side. Inés Arrimadas could be a strong candidate in a general election, if it were not for for the Albert Rivera's uncontested leadership in Cs. Certainly I would prefer her as leader, but I'd never vote for Cs anyway.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/28/actualidad/1543417538_880017.html

[Velasco]

Teresa Rodríguez, the candidate of Ahora Andalucía (AA), rules out a coalition government with the PSOE. The leader of Podemos in Andalusia reproached Susana Díaz for "putting VOX into the parliament" by including the far-right party in her campaign speeches. Andalusian premier is using VOX to attack PP and Cs, because blues and oranges don't rule out cooperation with the "misogynist" and "xenophobic" party. Teresa Rodríguez says that taking for granted that VOX will enter in parliament is an irresponsibility. She considers that the rise of VOX is the consequence of the fragmentation of the right, not due to the support of new voters.

Teresa Rodríguez makes an interesting description of susanismo* in an interview:

"It's an accommodated second generation PSOE which has not known either union struggle or Francoism, detached from working class, without ideology, which has opened wide the doors to the Right and speaks a language that we are unable to understand. Susanismo is incompatible with socialism (...)

The susanismo is a professionalized and urban-based PSOE that systematically blurs the barriers between government, party and administration."

Teresa Rodríguez says that AA won't permit a right-wing government in any case, but any cooperation with the PSOE will have to be based on programmatic agreements (social policies, education and employment) and it's only possible if socialists turn to the left.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/27/actualidad/1543321149_180017.html

Teresa Rodríguez is from Rota, a town in Cádiz province that hosts an US Naval Station (Navy and Marine Corps). Her partner is José María González (aka Kichi), the Podemos mayor of Cádiz. Teresa Rodríguez ran for Cádiz in 2015 but this time is running for Málaga, It's a strategic decision motivated by the need to strengthen the coalition in that province and Eastern Andalusia. Málaga is a hot contest with PP leader Juan Manuel Moreno running there, as well as the former coach of the Spanish basketball team Javier Imbroda runs for Cs. The IU leader in Andalusia Antonio Maíllo tops the AA list in Seville. There is a good chemistry between Teresa Rodríguez and him, according to the campaign reports.

*Susana Díaz is sometimes compared by rivals and detractors to Eva Perón and her governing style deemed as 'Peronist'.

[Velasco]

Conservative leader Pablo Casado defends his strategy of not attacking Vox arguing that it'd be attacking former PP voters. Casado says that they must show understanding to those voters switching to Vox because they don't feel represented by PP. Casado states that he aspires to lead the Spanish centre-right and aims to bring together that space once voters give the different forces a majority. This point of view is not shared by everybody in his party, with voices inside PP fearing that the Casado turn to the right alienates centrist voters. Other voices remark the surprising influence of a non-parliamentary party in the PP campaign. The fact is that Casado, who represents the right wing of PP, is hardening his stances even more assuming part of the Vox discourse. This becomes evident in the Casado's anti-immigrant proclaims (he resembles Sarkozy in 2012) or in proposals such as the re-devolution of Healthcare, Education and Justice to the central government. VOX not only stands for the re-devolution of competences, since the far-right party advocates for the supression of regional autonomy in Spain: One Country, One Parliament.

The VOX candidate in the Andalusian election is judge Francisco Serrano. Serrano is a vocal opponent to the legislation against gender based violence, which he deems "ideologically motivated". He was disqualified for two years from his position in a Family Court convicted of prevarication, for having modified the visit arrangements of a minor child in order he could go with his father to a Holy Week procession dressed as a Nazarene without asking the mother's permission. Serrano was reinstated as the two years expired, but he hasn't served as a judge again. The Vox candidate has been practising as a lawyer instead, representing fathers and associations and struggling against "radical feminism". Serrano is a "negationist judge" known by his controversial decisions on gender based violence and child custody , says El País.

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/19/actualidad/1542624635_420629.html

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/19/actualidad/1542624635_420629.html