Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

The CIS is an institute of sociological research depending on the Spanish government that conducts polls on a varied range of issues, including elections. The CIS fieldwork is based on face-to-face interviews and is very appreciated by sociologists, pollsters and electoral analysts. Spanish particularity.

[Velasco]

The Mayor of Madrid Manuela Carmena and Iñigo Errejon released this morning a joint letter announcing their alliance. Errejon will run as candidate in the region of Madrid under the Carnena's banner Más Madrid ("More Madrid") instead of the Unidos Podemos banner. Apparently this move has caught Podemos leadership unaware. Currently the negotiations between Carmena and Podemos to put together the list for the municipal elections are stalled. There are differences between Errejon and the Podemos and IU leaderships on the composition of the regional list. Errejon wants his ally Clara Serra (Podemos spokeswoman in the regional parliament) as number two, while the party leaderships agreed that the number two was Sol Sánchez (IU). Podemos keader Pablo Iglesias and Iñigo Errejon began distancing themselves in 2016, due to their differences on the alliance between Podemos and IU. The rift deepened in the party convention held the following year, when Iglesias supporters took control of the party. Today is the 5th anniversary of Podemos.

[Velasco]

Podemos is broken. Pablo Iglesias says he's disappointed with Errejon and Carmena. Podemos leader announced that his party will support Carmena in ther bid for re-election as Mayor of Madrid, but Unidos Podemos will run against Más Madrid and Errejon in the regional elections.

[Velasco]

Podemos founders part ways

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/01/18/inenglish/1547798597_841198.html

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Government change in Andalusia

https://www.politico.eu/article/5-takeaways-from-andalusia-government-change/

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The "five takeaways" are explained in the article.

As for the Podemos breakaway, I'm not sure about this wager. I think the diagnisis made by Íñigo Errejón is correct. The Andalusian outcome shows that it's necessary a revulsive. Also, the broad movement advocated by Errejón seems more attractive to me than the Unidos Podemos formula, which only appeals to the "people of the left" and has proven ineffective (it doesn't appeal a broader base and it doesn't retain all the vote Podemos and IU got separately). But the Podemos implosion might end in disaster and eventually in the demise of the Spanish Left, following preceding catastrophes in France and Italy.  I wish all the best to Carmena and Errejón: they have all my sympathy. But I'm worried too...

[Velasco]

Errejon and his supporters claim the crisis can be solved and a new deal is possible, but Podemos leadership says the bridges are broken beyond repair. On the other hand, IU spokeswoman in Madrid says the deal beteeen Podemos and her organization is broken and it's urgent and necessary a new one to run in regional snd local elections. Podemos has no candidate for regional elections at this moment, but a logical option could be regional drcretary Ramón Espinar. On the fence, the PSOE observes with perplexity and concern. The collapse of Podemos wouldn't help the socialists.

As for the municipality of Madrid, Podemos will not run against Manuela Carmena, but refuses to support her campaign and to psrticipate in her list. IU is considering to run against Carmena in the city (very likely according to eldiario.es),  but nothing is decided. The Anticapitalist faction of Podemos, always very critic of Carmena, calls to organize a list.

Ignacio Escolar analyzes what is likely the last battle between Iglesias and Errejon. It is very difficult to redirect the situation

https://m.eldiario.es/escolar/claves-ruptura-Iglesias-Errejon_6_858524171.html

[Velasco]

Also, the newest chapter in the Podemos splitting saga: Errejón has resigned his seat.

https://elpais.com/politica/2019/01/21/actualidad/1548078901_665589.html

Doesn't change much, and he will apparently remain a Podemos member (unless he is expelled I guess).

Podemos leadership claims that Errejón is already gone, but I think this is an excuse. Errejón is not like the six councilors who decided to run in the Más Madrid local primaries and were suspended from membership, on request of the Podemos local branch. He is one of the founding members of Podemos ("I couldn't leave, even if I wanted. It runs in my blood"). Expelling him would be tragic and costly, so Iglesias and his supporters prefer to say that Errejón is no longer member because he left for Más Madrid. It's up to see what happens with the members of the Errejón faction if they participate in Más Madrid, besides the suspended councilors (Rita Maestre and the others) and the rest of territorial branches. In case Podemos leadership persists in saying the bridges are broken, the party could be on the verge of collapse. Errejón says that he made the "correct" and not the "comfortable" decision. He resigns the seat in Congress to  de-escalate the situation (first he said that he would resign"immediately" on formal request, but Iglesias supporters said it was his decision suggesting that he should go) and hopes that Podemos leadership "reconsiders" (he said this weekend that Iglesias' leadership is "conformist") and the party joins the broader platform of Más Madrid.

[Velasco]

Podemos secretary in Madrid, Ramon Espinar, resigns office and his seat in Senate and Regional Assembly. Despite he is a close ally of Pablo Iglesias, Espinar disagrees with the Podemos leader on the course for the crisis and opposes running a list against Errejón in the regional election. This move shows the Pablo Iglesias faction is not a stony and immovable block. There are voices calling for a joint list with Más Madrid. On the other hand, some regional secretaries (including Basque Country and Murcia, alligned with Errejón) met in Toledo and made a release calling for "confidence, unity, coordination and negotiation". No one from the national leadership attended the meeting.

[Velasco]

The amount of voters that PSOE can recover from Podemos is limited. There are former PSOE voters among the 5 million who voted Podemos in 2015 and 2016, but also: young voters, abstentionists, alternative left supporters and peripheral nationalists. Some of these groups are very unlikely to back PSOE. In case Podemos collapses, many disillusioned voters would go to abstention. Actually that poll suggests a massive abstention of left-wing voters, even a worse scenario than the outcome of the Andalusian elections. It's worth noting that the increase in raw numbers of the parties right of the centre was very small in Andalusia. The result was more the consequence of 700,000 left-wing voters staying at home. On the other hand, this fluctuation is logical given the apparent implosion of Podemos. Depending on how the crisis evolves, Podemos may recover or collapse definitely. There are other possibilities, such as the surge of a new party in the left. The bold move of Carmena and Errejón in Madrid may end being a revulsive or a catastrophe. The months before the May elections will be very long. It's nearly impossible to predict the outcome now.

[Velasco]

Podemos leadership reconsiders after the resignation of Ramón Espinar. Spokeswoman in Congress Irene Montero, who is acting as interim leader while her partner Pablo Iglesias is on paternity leave, says that Podemos will talk with Errejón  before the elections. In the days following the release of the joint letter of Carmena and Errejón, Montero stated that the bridges were broken. There is division in Podemos between the supporters of a deal with Errejón (unitary list) and the supporters of running against Más Madrid in coalition with IU. Some people in Podemos think that running against Errejón would be a "suicide", but there are hardliners opposed to a deal with the "traitor" and Pablo Iglesias has been looking unsuccessfully for an independent on the top of a rival list. The negotiations will be complicated in any case.

I do think PSOE can take back a lot of Podemos voters if there's a true collapse though. In Catalonia/Basque Country they will indeed to go Bildu or ERC for the most part, but in the rest of the country I can easily see most Podemos voters going to PSOE again.

Remember that back in 2008 pretty much all the groups you mentioned were firm PSOE voters. Granted that was at the peak of the 2 party system, but I'm not sure if turnout can get much lower either. Remember 2016 had the lowest turnout in Spanish history already.

Similarly, the Andalusian election technically did not see record breaking low turnout either, 1990 had lower turnout (and PSOE won a majority anyways).

Disagree. We can't go back to 2008 pretending that the global crisis, its harsh impact in Spain and the 15M movement never happened. Podemos was born as the heir party of said movement and all the people coming from there (the "Futurless Youth") is not likely to back PSOE. Because of this and because the PSOE's strategy is trying to occupy the centre (deserted by Cs and PP), the total collapse of Podemos is not in the PSOE's interest.

The result in Andalusia was the combination of a depressed left wing turnout with a high mobilization of right wing voters. Additionally, there was a reconfiguration of the space right of the centre: PP losing ground, Cs increasing and the Vox surge

[Velasco]

Hey, I found this on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/begonavillacis/status/1090173178478034945

How reliable is it? Is it an internal of some sort? I'm not very familiar with polling around here.

If true, those are some very weak numbers for the left.

I guess you are referring to the Invymark poll for Telemadrid. The pollster is OK, but the sample size is way too small (only 400) and the margin of error higher than usual.

Anyway Madrid looks like an uphill battle for the left, even with an exceptional candidate like Manuela Carmena. She is a good mayor who has reduced the nunicipal debt left by the PP administrations, as well she has implemented good policies on environment and citizen participation (among others). I think her list will come first easily (the right wing vote is splitted in three), but it will be difficult to repeat the left-wing majority in a city that leans to the right and in the present circumstances. On the other hand, Begoña Villacis won't hesitate in replicating the Triple Alliance of Andalusia. However,  Carmena is the only one who can replicate the 2015 miracle. She needs a big mobilization of left-wing and progressive voters. It's going to be very hard, but not imposible

[Velasco]

Carmena is not a Podemos mayor: she is an independent who was backed by Podemos. She always remarks her independence from party structures and this is one of her main assets, besides her competence and many other personal qualities (sorry, I'm a bit of a fan and this is not usual in me). Currently she's allied with a dissident of that party and her relationship with the Podemos leadership is frozen. Furthermore, all the Podemos councilors are suspended from membership: at this moment the Pablo Iglesias party is not part of the local government. If Carnena was the typical candidate with a party affiliation, I would say she's done and has no chance at all. Given that she's exceptional and she's an independent who can appeal a broader base, I think there's still a small ray of light. Anyway it's more likely that Begoña Villacis becomes the next mayor with the support of PP and the far right VOX. At least that's what the polls say. Often predictions hold true, but sometimes there's room for surprise. In 2015 Carmena was polling a distant second behind Aguirre, but the campaign boosted her popularity (she was little known before) and came very close on election night.

Indeed, we are heading to a right wing nationalist majority according to the polls. It'd be depressing if it wasn't for the extreme volatility of the political situation. If we go a little time back, we could remember that Podemos was sunken in the polls months before the 2015 general rlections (Cs boosted after its success in the Catalonia), in which the purple party got more than 20% from the scratch and was the moral victor. Pedro Sánchez was deemed a corpse when he was ousted from party leadership and he is now the PM...

[Velasco]

Former coach of the Spanish basketball team Pepu Hernández is the candidate picked by Pedro Sánchez to run for the mayoralty of Madrid. Hernández coached the national team that won the 2006 World Championship in Japan. He was also the coach of Estudiantes, a team based in Madrid. Pedro Sánchez  is a big fan of basketball and played in Estudiantes as a teenager, from there their friendship. Hernández is an independent. At first he will have to run in the primary election scheduled on March 9 and there's another candidate who wants the nomination: Manuel de la Rocha, a member of the left wing faction. PSOE senior figures like Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba and Cristina Narbona, as well as Interior minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska, had previously rejected to run in Madrid. The PSOE faces difficulties in the city of Madrid after four years in the shadow of Carmena, supporting her investiture as mayor without taking place in local government. PSOE spokeswoman in Madrid relativized the value of the last poll placing socialists in 5th position behind Vox, saying that the margin of error is huge and it was conducted before "political events that have modified reality": alliance between Carmena and  Errejón, outbreak of the Podemos crisis.

Confirmed candidates so far:

Manuela Carmena (Más Madrid)
Begoña Villacís (Ciudadanos)
José Luis Martínez Almeida (PP)

[Velasco]

Fresh poll for the Madrid regional election

Celeste-Tel / eldiario.es

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/candidatura-Errejon-superaria-Podemos-gobernar_0_862664557.html

PSOE 21.4% 30 seats
PP 20 8% 29 seats
Cs 19.2% 27 seats
Más Madrid 10.5% 15 seats
Podemos 9% 12 seats
Vox 8.4% 12 seats
IU 5.3% 7 seats

Triple Alliance (PP-Cs-Vox) 48.4% 68 seats
Left (PSOE, Más Madrid,  Podemos, IU) 46.2% 64 seats

Some people begins to speculate on the 'Big Centre' or 'Macron' alliance between PSOE, Cs and Más Madrid (51.1% 72 seats). I don't see it at this stage, but who knows...

There was a meeting of the Podemos' Citizen Council yesterday. It's the equivalent of an executive committee and there is a majority of Pablo Iglesias supporters (Iglesias 37, Errejon 23, Anticapitalistas 2). Iglesias is on paternity leave and participated telematically. Previously he posted a long text in Facebook. Iglesias wrote that he's hurt and upset  but, despite everything, Errejon is not a traitor and he must be an ally. This means Pablo Iglesias and his inner circle consider Errejon is not in Podemos anymore, but they acknowledge a deal with Más Madrid on a joint list is necessary. Errejon didn't attend in order to avoid conflict, after Irene Montero said she preferred that Errejon was not present in the council meeeting. Other members of the Errejon faction attended anyway. The council agreed a route map for alliances. Podemos will hold primaries first, then there will be a negotiation with 'preferent partners' IU and Equo. The negotiation between Unidos Podemos and Más Madrid would be the last step...

The rift between Iglesias abd Errejon is very deep and possibly IU is going to play an important role in the negotiations for a joint list

[Velasco]

Celeste-Tel poll for the Madrid local elections

Más Madrid 28.4% 18 councilors (-2)
PP 21.9% 13 councilors (-8)
Cs 21.8% 13 councilors (+6)
PSOE 13.7% 8 councilors (-1)
VOX 8.2% 5 councilors (+5)
IU 2.3% nc (-)

https://m.eldiario.es/politica/Carmena-elecciones-Madrid-PSOE-Ciudadanos_0_863014431.html

[Velasco]

I would challenge the notion that Pedro Sánchez is a radical leftist, or something. Albert Rivera is far from being a moderate, particularly in what regards the delicate territorial question. PSOE and Cs, with Sánchez and Rivera as leaders, already signed a deal in 2016. I won't say a similar deal is impossible in the near future, but the context (Venezuela crisis, Podemos implosion) favours the reactionary triple alliance.

[Velasco]

The trial versus the Catalan separatist leaders starts next week, on Tuesday 12. They are accused of serious offences such as rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds. The trial will have a deep impact in Spanish politics and I'm afraid it's going to poison the already strained environment. To make things even worse, the far right will have a protagonic role. VOX secretary general Javier Ortega Smith will represent the private prosecution. It could be a formidable propagandistic weapon for the Spanish extreme reactionaries. The trial will have as well a huge emotional burden and it will affect the next moves of the Catalan nationalists, conditioned by the rivalry between ERC and the heirs of Convergència. The trial will highlight the role of ERC leader Oriol Junqueras at the expense of Carles Puigdemont. Junqueras is jailed and facing a harsh punishment, while Puigdemont lives comfortably at his Waterloo mansion in his self-enforced Belgian 'exile'.

In this context, the strategy of the Pedro Sánchez government to make a series of symbolic gestures in order to favour dialogue may end in failure if the Catalan separatist parties reject the budget plan. This would lead inevitably to elections (either in May or in autumn) and pave the way to a right wing majority promising to implement a tough policy in Catalonia. The following is worth reading

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/05/inenglish/1549354707_947579.html

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[Velasco]

Spanish government breaks talks with Catalan separatists

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/08/inenglish/1549635276_414422.html

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[Velasco]

I think there is some consensus on the right wing demonstration that took place in Madrid yesterday. It's been a failure or an underperformance for the reactionary tripartite. In the picture below you can spot Vox leader Santiago Abascal (bearded man 3rd from the left), Javier Maroto (a gay member of PP standing besides a homophobe), PP leader Pablo Casado and Cs leader Albert Rivera (right)

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/02/11/inenglish/1549869663_014812.html

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BBC News: "Madrid mass protest over talks policy"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47190135


In my opinion Pablo Casado has reached intolerable levels of rhetoric agresiveness, launching a lot of fallacious arguments (for instance PP leader claims that Pedro Sánchez accepted the 21 demands of a letter the Catalan premier sent to him, which is false). Casado appeals to the lowest instincts and shows a reckless disregard of truth in a desperate attempt to contain the losses to Vox. The far right party is conditioning the PP discourse and setting the agenda. This is not a good thing for the conservatives, neither for the country. Among the many insults and hyperboles, I have read "stab in the back". If you are familiar to German history (a hundred years ago), you'll now what I'm talking about. The Spanish Right is reactionary. On the ither hand, it's remarkable that Albert Rivera is in the same picture as Santiago Abascal; the equivalent of Macron and Le Pen attending the same demonstration in Paris.  There is a reason why Rivera has no issue with that anymore: Venezuela.  I think Cs leader can no longer sustain that he is a moderate centrist.

The situation of the Pedro Sánchez government is dire. Even though Sánchez saved the day and is still alive (maybe his "Survival Handbook" explains how), he might be tempted to call elections in May, putting all eggs in one basket. The ball is in the court of Catalan separatist parties. Passing the buget means some economic relief and much needed investments in Catalonia. Voting against could be paving the way for the right wing parties and their iron pills: indefinite suspension of regional autonomy and implementation of a state of emergency in Catalonia (probably unconstitutional measures). The trial of the Catalan separatist leaders is around the corner and this makes things terribly complicated. Spanish labyrinth, more than ever