At what point do you think that Trump might have lost his chance at re-election?

[BaldEagle1991]

I think the early COVID-19 response and then the high unemployment rate that came afterwards might have did it for him. Plus seeing so many pleasure events (sporting events, conventions, concerts, vacations, etc) get canceled cause of COVID-19 might have had an indirect effect.

[BaldEagle1991]

Hard to tell. Actually I always felt his 2016 election was a fluke, a combination of factors that got him lucky in the EC and that he was never approved. But I'm not saying 2017 here. So not exactly sure.

I'm not sure the pandemic made much of a difference in the end. The likely result almost matches my pre-pandemic prediction, which was 289 EVs.

I would’ve said it was a fluke but this years election results and how close it was, kind of made it realize it really wasn’t.

[BaldEagle1991]

The first debate and then immediately catching COVID. If he had actually taken the time to prepare for the debate and pulled off a clear win against Biden - even while still being Trump - and then capitalized on that positive media attention to do... anything, he might have gotten the game changer he needed.

Yeah the first debate where he incredibly missed an open goal against an awful Biden seemed like it was his last chance. After that the Covid hospitalisation sucked the oxygen out of the rest of the campaign.

If the events on my original post pretty much ended his Presidency, those events were basically the stake through the coffin.

[BaldEagle1991]

I also have a feeling his “losers and suckers” on the military bombshell story might have made a slight impact among some traditional Republican bases, such as military families. He lost those guys after that came out.

[BaldEagle1991]

When Covid began.

X2

This was a winnable election and he blew it. How many politicians have taken a crisis and were skilled enough to turn it to their advantage?

Most world leaders running for reelection in the post-COVID-19 environment so far.

Yep. I think New Zealand’s PM is one good example of someone using a crisis to an advantage and they won the next election for it.

[BaldEagle1991]

When Covid began.

X2

This was a winnable election and he blew it. How many politicians have taken a crisis and were skilled enough to turn it to their advantage?

Most world leaders running for reelection in the post-COVID-19 environment so far.

Yep. I think New Zealand’s PM is one good example of someone using a crisis to an advantage and they won the next election for it.

The South Korean administration as well - it got a legislative supermajority while Ardern got an outright majority under a proportional representation system (both really impressive). The biggest blowout for an administration happened in Bolivia but that government wasn't even elected to begin with.

I have a feeling the SK and NZ elections were international precursors to Biden’s win.