How will people in these industries and occupations vote in the 2020 election?

[BaldEagle1991]

I did a similar thread years ago for 2012 & 2016, and now here's a thread for 2020. Same, but new stuff added as well.

So try to guess on how people that work in these industries or occupations will vote in 2020. I honestly think to some extent your occupation or the industry you work in does shape a big factor in how you vote. Not a huge part, but it does surely play a role.

Coal mining
Oil and Gas
Broadcast media (TV/Radio)
Journalist Publications (Blogs, Newspapers)
Higher education
Medical (Doctors, Nurses)
Military
Logging
Commercial airlines
Religious clergy
Film
Professional sporting
Construction
IT/Tech
Tourism
Fishing
Law (Lawyers of any kind)
Law Enforcement (Police, detectives)
Big box Retail
Music (singing, production)
Banking/Finances
Automobile
Farming 
Engineering
Restaurant workers (waiters, chefs)
Pharmacists
Insurance
Plumbers
Electricians
Dancers (Ballerinas, Dance studio owners, NFL cheerleaders, etc)
Personal trainers
Delivery service (UPS, USPS, FedEx, Food delivery, Truck drivers)
Actuaries
Hospitality (Hotels, Casinos)

[BaldEagle1991]

Trump:
Coal mining
Oil and gas
Military
Logging
Clergy
Construction
Professional athletes
Auto workers
Farmers
Fishing
Law enforcement
Retail
Plumbers
Electricians
Delivery

Biden:
Broadcast media
Journalists
Higher ed
Medical
Airlines
Film
IT/Tech
Tourism
Law
Music
Finance
Engineers
Restaurant workers
Pharmacists
Insurance
Dancers (though I feel like there aren't very many of them)
Personal trainers
Actuaries
Hospitality

Mostly agree but I think that personal trainers will vote for Trump, delivery may vote for Biden, clergy and logging may vote for him too. I feel like a lot of this is just based off of stereotypes I have about what kinds of people do these professions. Generally, I think Biden will do better among careers that require higher education or are more in the creative field, wheras Trump will do better among people who do things that are more physical for their job.

I think engineering might be slight Trump, yet you need a lot of higher ed and a certificate/license to do that.

[BaldEagle1991]

Coal mining - Strong Trump
Oil and Gas - Strong Trump
Broadcast media (TV/Radio) - Lean Biden
Journalist Publications (Blogs, Newspapers) - Strong Biden
Higher education - Strong Biden
Medical (Doctors, Nurses) - Lean Biden
Military - Lean Trump
Logging - Strong Trump
Commercial airlines - Likely Biden
Religious clergy - Lean Trump
Film - Strong Biden
Professional sporting - Tossup
Construction - Lean Trump
IT/Tech - Lean Biden
Tourism - Likely Biden
Fishing - Strong Trump
Law (Lawyers of any kind) - Lean Biden
Law Enforcement (Police, detectives) - Likely Trump
Big box Retail - Tossup
Music (singing, production) - Strong Biden
Banking/Finances - Likely Biden
Automobile - Likely Trump
Farming - Likely Trump
Engineering - Likely Trump
Restaurant workers (waiters, chefs) - Likely Biden
Pharmacists - Strong Biden
Insurance - Likely Biden
Plumbers - Strong Trump
Electricians - Likely Trump
Dancers (Ballerinas, Dance studio owners, NFL cheerleaders, etc) - Strong Biden
Personal trainers - Lean Biden
Delivery service (UPS, USPS, FedEx, Food delivery, Truck drivers) - Likely Biden
Actuaries - Lean Biden
Hospitality (Hotels, Casinos) - Strong Biden

[BaldEagle1991]

Speaking as an insurance actuary myself, Biden will win actuaries, but Trump will win the insurance industry as a whole.

Maybe because the insurance industry and Trump have the same approval rating overall.

[BaldEagle1991]

I agree with the consensus except on engineers, doctors, and finance. The first two are near tossup and most people in finance will vote for Trump. It’s amusing to see only stereotypically blue collar careers voting Trump.

You are aware blue collar/working class voters are the main base for Trump.

[BaldEagle1991]

I think people overrate the degree to which construction workers will vote for Trump. Many are conservative in terms of outlook but they also tend to be union members that vote on bread and butter issues. I actually would argue that on balance they'd lean Biden since non-white construction workers are overwhelmingly Democrat and a sizable minority of the white ones are as well and actually sort of strike me as Obama-Trump-Biden voters.

You could be right, but they seem to be overwhelmingly non-college educated males. A core Trump constituency. Which explains why people overestimate. 

[BaldEagle1991]

I feel like pro athletes aren't the tossup/Republican constituency that people here are saying they are.

The racial breakdown of the Big 4 sports leagues are (first 3 from this link, NHL from the title of this article, and finding out manually that about 30 of those 43 are black:
MLB (750 players) - 58% white, 32% Latino, 8% black
NBA (390 players) - 74% black, 21% other (multiracial I guess)/white
NFL (1696 players) - 70% black, 27% white
NHL (713 players) - 94% white, 4% black, 2% other

This means that only ~46% of Big Four athletes are non-Hispanic whites, and this is likely even lower among American citizen athletes given that the 94% white NHL is only ~27% American, and many NBA white players are Europeans. Not to mention the nearly entirely American NFL being 70% black.

Yeah, I think it's fair to say Biden will likely be carrying pro athletes (albeit they are an incredibly small and likely low turnout group).

The majority of NHL players are White Canadians so they can’t vote, but knowing Canada, a large portion of them aren’t a fond of Trudeau. Meaning they’d be Republicans likely if they were Americans.

[BaldEagle1991]

I did a similar thread years ago for 2012 & 2016, and now here's a thread for 2020. Same, but new stuff added as well.

So try to guess on how people that work in these industries or occupations will vote in 2020. I honestly think to some extent your occupation or the industry you work in does shape a big factor in how you vote. Not a huge part, but it does surely play a role.

Coal mining-Hard Trump
Oil and Gas-Hard Trump
Broadcast media (TV/Radio)-Hard Biden (Except for Fox News, Breitbart, etc.)
Journalist Publications (Blogs, Newspapers)
Higher education
Medical (Doctors, Nurses)
Military
Logging
Commercial airlines
Religious clergy
Film
Professional sporting-Tossup (NBA-Biden, except for Gordon Hayward and Pat Riley, NFL-Lean Biden, MLB-Trump, NHL-Those who can vote, Trump, other leagues mixed)
Construction
IT/Tech
Tourism
Fishing
Law (Lawyers of any kind)
Law Enforcement (Police, detectives)-Hard Trump (Democrats will be lucky to get 30% of cops vote in future)
Big box Retail
Music (singing, production)-Hard Biden (except for country, rock, etc.)
Banking/Finances
Automobile
Farming 
Engineering-Tossup
Restaurant workers (waiters, chefs)-Lean Biden
Pharmacists-Biden
Insurance
Plumbers
Electricians -Lean Biden
Dancers (Ballerinas, Dance studio owners, NFL cheerleaders, etc)
Personal trainers
Delivery service (UPS, USPS, FedEx, Food delivery, Truck drivers)
Actuaries
Hospitality (Hotels, Casinos)

Surprised to see Medical people as a tossup this cycle

[BaldEagle1991]

I think big box retail would be more of a tossup if it weren’t for COVID. They had to be working even during lockdowns this past Spring.