Will millennials become more conservative with age, and if so, by how much?

[hopper]

It is a question of race and ethnicity.

Among non-Hispanic whites, millennials actually break evenly among conservative and liberals (Romney beat Obama with young whites by 7%).  The problem, as usual, is that nearly half of all millennials are non-whites (whereas 80% of Baby Boomers are white), and non-whites have been staunch liberals since we've began recording these statistics and polls.

Therefore, if millennials are to be conservative, then something must happen to change the political views of non-whites.

I don't know about that since most Millenials are slightly left of center per Pew Research.  Just look at the group "Next Generation Left" that Pew had in their "Political Typlogy Series" if you will a couple years ago.

 

[hopper]

Maybe on fiscal issues they'll move a little to the right. I hope many of the Bernie Bros wake up and realize that socialism is never the answer.

Yeah I think they will move more right fiscally than they are now since More Millenials will be in married life in the future.

[hopper]

Sometime in the 2030s-2040s, Dems will have 280 seats in Congress during a wave year as a result of current voting trends.

You don't know that yet. We have a Dem President in the White House and only 28% of Americans think the country is on the "Right Track". If the "Wrong Track" numbers keep going like that with Dem Presidents in the White House there will be an opening for a possible(the right kind of)Republican President. However if Republicans keep on selecting the wrong Presidential Nominees the Dems will retain the White House unless there is a real bad recessionl ike 1980 or 2008.

[hopper]

I still expect the almost perfect linear pattern of age correlating positively with Republican voting to continue.

What do you mean? That as people get older, they will vote Republican? Where are these new voters going to come from though? If that's what you mean, then you're basically saying Millennials/younger genx'ers are going to start voting Republican. The major reason why the GOP base is older right now is because they've failed to win over much of the last 1.5 generations of voters, leaving them with an aging base that, lucky for them, votes more consistently than a younger Democratic base.

The main GOP problem at the Presidential Level is with Millenials not younger Xer's.

[hopper]

Maybe on fiscal issues they'll move a little to the right. I hope many of the Bernie Bros wake up and realize that socialism is never the answer.

Yeah I think they will move more right fiscally than they are now since More Millenials will be in married life in the future.

Except Millenials are getting married at a pale rate.

Also, people who think the country is going in the wrong direction under Obama includes the far left.

I'm saying as more Millenials get married in the future.

Really "the far left"? I just think the far left is like the far right and they will never be happy what ever their party does.

[hopper]

Fiscally, yes. There are already many signs that Millennials on the "from each according to his ability" side of things already tend to oppose redistribution. This group will grow in number and influence as Millennials get older and wealthier.

Socially, I'm not really sure.

But one has to ask, even if they are somewhat fiscally moderate/conservative, how does that apply to policies? Just because you are fiscally conservative doesn't necessarily mean you are against, say, single-payer healthcare, or expanding social security, and so on. Millennials have shown greater openness to such proposals and generally favor government in many aspects more than other generations. Millennials are also open to taxes on the wealthy, and that is hardly surprising given the age we have grown up in, where inequality and the wealthy gaming the system has become a defining issue of our generation.

However, personally, I still believe that aging and financial status doesn't guarantee a shift towards conservatism at any level. Studies don't support the aging aspect at least. Millennials are not really all that fiscally liberal right now, sure, but just because they aren't does not mean they will trend even more towards fiscal conservatism down the road.

I think Millennials are more towards the "political center" on fiscal issues but they are socially liberal no doubt.