If, as in 00 and 04, this election comes down to one state... (user search)
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  If, as in 00 and 04, this election comes down to one state... (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which of the following will it be?
#1
Florida
#2
Ohio
#3
Virginia
#4
Nevada
#5
Iowa
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Author Topic: If, as in 00 and 04, this election comes down to one state...  (Read 3517 times)
Donerail
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« on: June 10, 2012, 11:55:44 AM »
If it comes down to just one state, it will be Colorado.
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Donerail
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« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2012, 11:25:10 AM »
Quote from: WhyteRain on June 11, 2012, 10:14:31 AM
Quote from: mah519 on June 10, 2012, 03:20:38 PM
Ohio and Virginia. Florida seems pretty likely Romney state.

I agree that Florida is going for Romney, but if he needs Ohio and Virginia to win then it won't be a close election.

How so? Romney definitely OH and VA to win. Here's a plausible Romney path to victory:



And it doesn't work without FL, OH, or VA.
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Donerail
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« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2012, 02:17:58 PM »
Quote from: WhyteRain on June 11, 2012, 11:56:59 AM
Quote from: SoEA SJoyceFla on June 11, 2012, 11:25:10 AM
Quote from: WhyteRain on June 11, 2012, 10:14:31 AM
Quote from: mah519 on June 10, 2012, 03:20:38 PM
Ohio and Virginia. Florida seems pretty likely Romney state.

I agree that Florida is going for Romney, but if he needs Ohio and Virginia to win then it won't be a close election.

How so? Romney definitely OH and VA to win. Here's a plausible Romney path to victory:



And it doesn't work without FL, OH, or VA.

Good point, well taken.  I just don't think any of those three will be as close as, say, NV, MN, or even ME and PA.

Assuming 1 state is decisive, Ohio would likely be as close for Romney as Nevada/Iowa is for Obama, while Minnesota/Pennsylvania would be about as close for Obama as Florida/Virginia is for Romney. As for Maine, Obama will win there with about the same margins (assuming that one state is decisive) as Romney gets in Arizona and North Carolina.
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Donerail
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« Reply #3 on: June 13, 2012, 06:46:33 AM »
Quote from: Governor Napoleon on June 13, 2012, 02:52:45 AM
Iowa and New Hampshire seem more likely to go Romney than Nevada or Colorado.

Colorado's gonna be closer than Iowa, which'll be closer than Nevada, which'll be closer than New Hampshire.
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