Which of these scenarios is more likely?

[Donerail]

If the polling trends hold like this into the fall, Obama has already won Arizona. There will be no home state advantage this time around.

If Romney wins NM, then he's already won IL, WA, OR, the entire Northeast with the possible exception of Vermont, and maybe even CA. So basically, everything.

Bush won NM in 2004 by a slim margin, so that's probably not true of the latter states.

And Gore only won New Mexico by 366 votes in 2000, and before that, from 1972-1992, a Republican always won New Mexico. Current governor's a Republican, governor before that a Democrat, and one before that a Republican.