Last minute expand map megathread - Spending & visits in AZ, GA, WI, NM, MI, MN

[AmericanNation]

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

Sounds very similar to the McCain/Romney strategy in the end game.

Academically similar, but this is perfect positioning.  They are winning the big 3 (OH, NC, FL) and are looking for the last 10 to 11 Electoral votes in 9 states/districts.  If he wins NV he is looking for 4 or 5 electors in 8 states/districts.  How is Clinton going to defend everywhere when she is radioactive right now? 

[AmericanNation]

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

Sounds very similar to the McCain/Romney strategy in the end game.

Academically similar, but this is perfect positioning.  They are winning the big 3 (OH, NC, FL) and are looking for the last 10 to 11 Electoral votes in 9 states/districts.  If he wins NV he is looking for 4 or 5 electors in 8 states/districts.  How is Clinton going to defend everywhere when she is radioactive right now? 

In order:

He's not winning OH, NC, and FL right now.  OH at this point is probably Lean R, NC and FL Tossup to Lean D.

She's not radioactive right now.  Polls have shown very little movement due to Comey and she still has a clear lead in the polls, though narrower than it was a couple of weeks ago.

1) He is winning in OH, NC, and FL.  NC is the closest he's only up 2 there. 
2) She has the highest negatives of any candidate ever (she is significantly higher than trump now), she is (Publicly) under federal investigation for the 2nd time, she is guilty of many serious crimes that will result in impeachment or constitutional crisis...  what would you consider radioactive?

[AmericanNation]

Looking at Trump and Pence's schedule  between now and Thursday

FL 7 stops
PA 4
NC 2
MI 2
WI 1

Look at this and their spending, PA is still 'plan A' to break the Clinton wall, as it always has been, but they are hunting for backup path plans like MI, WI (and CO and NM which were visited over the weekend).

Sounds very similar to the McCain/Romney strategy in the end game.

Academically similar, but this is perfect positioning.  They are winning the big 3 (OH, NC, FL) and are looking for the last 10 to 11 Electoral votes in 9 states/districts.  If he wins NV he is looking for 4 or 5 electors in 8 states/districts.  How is Clinton going to defend everywhere when she is radioactive right now? 

In order:

He's not winning OH, NC, and FL right now.  OH at this point is probably Lean R, NC and FL Tossup to Lean D.

She's not radioactive right now.  Polls have shown very little movement due to Comey and she still has a clear lead in the polls, though narrower than it was a couple of weeks ago.

1) He is winning in OH, NC, and FL.  NC is the closest he's only up 2 there. 
2) She has the highest negatives of any candidate ever (she is significantly higher than trump now), she is (Publicly) under federal investigation for the 2nd time, she is guilty of many serious crimes that will result in impeachment or constitutional crisis...  what would you consider radioactive?

Let's look at real numbers and not feelings or opinions, shall we?

1) Don't cherry pick polls.  It's intellectually dishonest.  Looking at the two major poll aggregators, RCP and HuffPo, the current averages are:

OH: T+2.5, C+1 (average of the two: T+0.75)
NC: C+2.0, C+3 (average: C+2.5)
FL: T+1.0, C+2 (average: C+0.5)

They're all close, but Clinton is slightly ahead in NC, Trump in OH, and FL is a tossup (I won't quibble about a fraction of a percent).  Please explain how you translate these numbers to Trump is winning in all of them.

2) I invite you to look at Gallup's rolling samples of candidate favorability at  http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx?g_source=ELECTION_2016&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles#pcf-image.  In the latest sample (Oct. 25-31), Clinton is at 43/54 (-11), which is indeed pretty bad.  But Trump's favorability is FAR worse at 34/63 (-29).  So it's quite clear which candidate is more unpopular.

Actually, looking at the previous Gallup numbers explains a lot about why the race has tightened in the past couple of weeks.  Clinton's been in a narrow range for the past two weeks of -14 to -11, with one day at -9.  But Trump has improved since then; two weeks ago he was at -34, but he's been gradually trending upward and was as high as -27 a few days ago.

when a candidate moves ahead in recent polling after long trailing they will be behind in aggregators for a while.  the fact that you don't know that or it didn't occur to you is disconcerting.  When many polls all over the place move in one direction it isn't cherry picked, it is a clear pattern.  Trump could win 300 EV and be behind in the aggregators.