Democratic Nevada Caucus results thread (entrance poll @2pm ET)

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I just convinced three black guys in Nevada on Hornet to go caucus for Hillary. They didn't know about it and weren't planning to vote.

I hope she wins by three votes.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I also ran into one Bernbot who alleged that Hillary changes her positions just to win votes, and the only thing he could cite was her evolution on gay marriage.

The more I do this experiment, the more I think Bernie's supporters aren't going to support Hillary in the general election. They're spreading so much vitriolic propaganda amongst themselves that they see Hillary as some sort of evil demon. What they don't realize is she's an "evil demon" who pretty much supports all the realistic things that Bernie supports, except she has the added bonus of actually knowing what she's doing. Sigh.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

@Hagrid: Wow. I know TPP and her revealing hesitance on Keystone without even really thinking about it.

That's because you've searched for ammunition and inferred what you want to infer in her positions. She had never taken a previous position on Keystone, so that's moot. TPP is a bit murkier, but I take her at face value that she read the details once they were out and decided it wasn't a good deal. So you can't really know for sure. I admit, though, that the stakes on that are a bit lower for me because I actually support it and kind of hope she's lying, but... yeah.

As for this being a competitive race, being a candidate for president and being president is different. Plus, people want to have a choice. If Bernie wasn't in, O'Malley probably would've picked up steam instead. Maybe it wouldn't have been as threatening as Bernie's, because I admit Bernie is a nice shiny object to young people who are easily wowed, but elections are about choices. It was going to narrow, even if we were all mostly blind to it six months ago.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Just sitting here waiting as more people trickle in.  The Bernie side is loudly cheering whenever anybody walks in and into their side.  The Hillary side is... not.

I want to pull my hair out just thinking about how obnoxious this is.

I f-cking hate young people.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

SO Clinton 49.8 and Bern 47.2 according to CNN entrance...

The Bern is not being felt

Not yet, but think about the kinds of people who are more likely to have been late getting in line.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Hillary loses.

Congratulations, Republicans. There is no way Democrats win if Sanders is the nominee, even if he becomes president.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Anyone expecting an Iowa Redux right now?

Me, me, me! But this time with Bernie getting the lead! And watch the media heads say Clinton had a great night if she loses while stealing the spotlight from Bernie if he wins!

You're kidding, right?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Congratulations, Republicans. There is no way Democrats win if Sanders is the nominee, even if he becomes president.

Excuse me, but isn't that a bit contradictionary?

No. A Sanders presidency would be absolutely disastrous for the left in the long term and in the short term.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I just nominated myself as a delegate.

Thank you for your service.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

If this ends up like Iowa, I don't think Sanders is going to get away with calling a virtual tie "a win" again. That line was lame the first time and would be even more lame a second time.

No anything better than a double digit loss is a win for Sanders.  Clinton needs a big win here.

I disagree. I think she just needs to deny him a win. If he can be denied an actual win, it will blunt the momentum a bit and allow Hillary to still march to a big victory in SC. And then that sets the tone for Super Tuesday.

But if he wins, even by a little, the whole narrative changes. Hillary will have lost two out of three contests, and according to the pundits her one win was basically a tie. It will make SC more competitive, which will be devastating for her.

Seriously, Hillary is in trouble. People are dumb.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

CNN already spinning it as a loss for Clinton no matter what happens.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

So Sanders is going to lose narrowly while carrying the Latino vote? wtf

Goes to show that the Adam Griffin method of extrapolating demographic results from one state to other states that are months away might not make the most sense. Whoddathunk?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Dumbass college students getting in a live argument on CNN.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Dumbass college students getting in a live argument on CNN.

Chill dude. It is a way more informed and intelligent discussion about politics than most people would have, if they even cared.

Sorry, but when I want to listen to people yelling at each other but saying nothing, I come here and join in myself. I don't want to see it on CNN.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

[Long post]

You've also been suggesting that what happens with the demographics in one state will make or break a candidate's chances of winning the nomination. Except we're seeing that the numbers are not set in stone, and that there's some fluidity: Hillary can do worse than expected with Latinos, but she can also do better than expected with whites. And there's nothing to say that the patterns will completely repeat themselves elsewhere.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

CNN: "The tightness of this race breaks the narrative that Bernie Sanders cannot appeal to a diverse segment of the electorate".

@HagridOfTheDeep

Yes, but instead Hillary is winning a larger percentage of white voters than some people expected, so it's a shakeup on both sides and speaks to the fact that race may not actually be the best predictor of things this go-around.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

News alert from CBC here in Canada also just let me know that Hillary has been projected the winner. I guess they're getting it from FOX. Yay!

[HagridOfTheDeep]

A bunch of Bernie hacks on Facebook are passing around a screenshot alleging Hillary bussed in 2 charter busses of homeless people and paid them to vote for her. Sureeeeeee.

For every busload of homeless people there's a busload of Sanders campaign workers who voted in New Hampshire.