Greek election - January 25th 2015

[politicus]

I feel it is only fair to point out that Fianna Fáil is affiliated to ALDE, and that their only MEP elected in 2014 was expelled from the parliamentary party for joining ECR.

Okay, I should mention that apart from the Tories the other big group is Polish PiS. Also not exactly a moderate party.

Anyway, Philip when evaluating what is the main group of something in the EP apart from number of MEPs it is a good rule of thumb to go by the German parties. When it comes to Europe whereever the Germans are is where the center of gravity is.

[politicus]

Concerning the silly argument about SYRIZA's relationship to Communism in general, and the KKE in particular:

SYRIZA was founded in 2004 as a coalition of several parties, including:

• KEDA: split from KKE in 2000
• AKOA: a 1987 successor of KKE-I, which split from the KKE in 1968
• various Trots
• and of course, Synaspismos: formed as a party in 1991 when a bunch of people who had been purged from KKE stayed in their coalition with EAR (the other 1987 successor of KKE-I, which split from KKE in 1968).

(more Trots joined later, and some Maoists too)

As you can see, various organizations that split from the KKE have had a major influence on the shape of SYRIZA today, and its foundation as well as that of Synaspismos before it both literally included direct KKE splitters. The earlier argument on semantics is irrelevant because it hinges on nothing but how you strictly you characterize "breakaway party" and literally nothing else.

Instead, can we talk about how a major portion of SYRIZA is literally communists, and how the party appears to be shifting significantly to the right in preparation for taking power? Do members of the party's left think it's just empty election rhetoric, or a necessary compromise to win, or what? Tsipras seems to have surprisingly effective discipline over a very diverse coalition.

1) If a link is sufficiently indirect "ties back to" or something like that is the appropriate phrase. Breakaway indicates a direct break from something, which is simply incorrect for the overwhelming majority of Syriza. PW was wrong about this and ought to have admitted it.

2) There has been rumblings among Syrizas left wing in the Left Platform, but no organized attempt to challenge the leadership AFAIK and it looks like the opportunity to actually get power keeps people in line. What happens afterwards is another matter.

3) Those who really can't stand the "revisionist" leadership have already gone to ANTARSYA and other fringe groups.

4) There are still genuinely Socialist elements in Syriza's platform like a nationalisation of banks which have been saved by public money. If you are a Socialist (or Communist) that actually wants to implement anything Syriza in power is your chance - why blow it?

(yeah I know left wingers are really good at destroying their own chances, but still this must be a factor..)

[politicus]

This is quickly becoming a trainwreck again. Keep it on topic and keep it civil, maricones.

Being a mod doesn't give you the right to use insults.

[politicus]

Interesting interview with Syriza's economics spokesperson. First off he has a great name - Euclid!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Estimate of 25% of Syriza members who want more immediate actions like nationalisations and arrests of old regime figures.

There is a split looming about a year or so into a Syriza government (or maybe even earlier) with the Left Platform forming a splinter party - especially if they have to govern with Potami or another "moderate hero" party. A Syriza minority government backed by KKE on the other hand would have to implement a more genuine Socialist policy, so the election result and choice of partner is also quite important. I still think the leadership has invested so much in a moderation that they will prefer a centrist partner, but after stating they will only govern with KKE (IMO both in order to put pressure on moderate leftists to give them a majority and keep internal cohesion), that backtracking could in itself lead to a split. Still, my guess is they stay united until the election is over and the troubles start afterwards.

[politicus]

Maricones isn't an insult in Manizales, so it wasn't meant as such. It also doesn't change my point.

..........

Are you sure? As a mod you should definitely know better than to use a term that large numbers of bilingual Latin Americans would translate as "f*ggots."

Anyway, does anyone think KKE might benefit from "True Leftists" who refuse to vote for the new and improved SYRIZA? It's always fun to see unreconstructed communist parties win lots of seats!

KKE has been stable in most polls around 5.5%. There has been a few outliers so their interval past January 7 is between 4.4 and 7.0. There is nothing that indicates a KKE win. KKE is a special party and they don't really appeal to anyone outside their core constituency. If there was a widespread dissatisfaction with Syriza going soft I think it would go to other leftist option the alliance Front of the Greek Anticapitalist Left (ANTARSYA) - Left Front Coalition (MARS), which is much closer to the Syriza left wing in ideology and outlook.

The dynamic of the 50 seat bonus means that left wing voters know that only a Syriza win will get them power. If ND somehow gets ahead everything else doesn't matter much. There is a strong pressure for ND/Syriza polarization on the voters.

[politicus]

Depends on how we're gonna define mainstream of course. EPP has many more MEPs. In my opinion, as a whole, both ECR and EPP can be seen as mainstream conservative, as opposed to smaller, more radically right-wing/anti-EU groups. Tories in the UK and Fianna Fáil in Ireland have always been mainstream. Some smaller Eastern European member parties of ECR may not be mainstream. But remember, the controversial Fidesz still sits with the EPP.

You can not just define an alternative reality. EPP has the largest Conservative, Christian Democratic or other non-Liberal centre-right party as member in all other member states than Britain. Including the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the French Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), the Spanish People's Party (PP), Forza Italia and the Polish Civic Platform (PO)  and it has member parties in all of the EU member states except for the United Kingdom. This clearly makes them the mainstream Conservative/Christian Democratic group.
Fidesz is for better or worse the mainstream centre-right party in Hungary, so this doesn't change anything.

ECR is as earlier pointed out the a club for misfits of various types including a lot of the more moderate right wing populists. The fact that the British Tories are part of this group doesn't change that - it just underlines the Tories peculiar relationship to Europe.

[politicus]

My prediction:

33% ND (ahead)
33% SYRIZA
  7% Potami
  6% XA
  6% KKE
  5% PASOK
  4% ANEL
  3% Kinima
  1% DIMAR
  2% Others

Turnout: 72%

Why? ND hasn't been ahead since May and recent polls show Syriza increasing their margin.

[politicus]

ECR is a very mixed bag of right wing populists, libertarians, National Conservatives and mainstream Conservatives like the Tories and Fianna Fail. You can not deduce anything about ANEL from their membership of this apart from the party being right wing and not Neo-Nazi.

It stretches from Fianna Fail and Tories over AfD, DPP/True Finns in Scandinavia to Croatian Party of Rights dr. Ante Starčević.

To be pedantic, Fianna Fáil the party is still in ALDE. It's just that its only MEP fell out with ALDE and jumped to ECR, much to the displeasure of a national leadership which is trying to position itself domestically as being centre-left (or at least to the left of FG).

That particular detail has already been pointed out:

I feel it is only fair to point out that Fianna Fáil is affiliated to ALDE, and that their only MEP elected in 2014 was expelled from the parliamentary party for joining ECR.

[politicus]

My prediction:

33% ND (ahead)
33% SYRIZA
  7% Potami
  6% XA
  6% KKE
  5% PASOK
  4% ANEL
  3% Kinima
  1% DIMAR
  2% Others

Turnout: 72%

Why? ND hasn't been ahead since May and recent polls show Syriza increasing their margin.

Probably expecting a last minute "devil you know" feeling from voters. Not that I agree, but I see the logic.

FT profiles the fate of the political dynasties of Greece - the Karamanlis, Mitsotakis and Papandreou families.

I expected that when the campaign began, but with NDs decision to go to the right to shore up the ex-XA and ex-ANEL voters they basically let the center unguarded. ND gambled on going rightwards to pass Syriza and it hasn't paid off (or at least not enough). I don't see them getting much closer. Centrist voters have lots of options this time and I doubt those that feel the need to pick one of the big two will suddenly support a battered, worn out and rightleaning ND over a moderated Syriza in large numbers.

I also think Tender underestimates the effect of a high share of centrists/non-aligned and middle aged women among undecideds. They will give Potami a boost. It is the ultimate moderate hero/soft values party.

[politicus]

At this point:

35% SYRIZA
30% ND
9% Potami
6% XA
5.5% KKE
4.5% PASOK
3% ANEL
2.5% Kinima
1% DIMAR
3.5% Others

But I will wait for the last polls to see if something happens.

[politicus]

When are the last polls published?

Friday

[politicus]

And this is a picture from the wedding of Makis Voridis:

The best man at his wedding was Carl Lang (he is the man to the right of Voridis) a former FN MEP and the current leader of the far-right Party of France.

Reminds me that no one answred this:

Voridis at the congress of Parti de la France, an anti-Marine FN breakaway founded in 2009 by Carl Lang.



For those knowledgeable of French politics: I assume Lang broke with FN because he didn't like Marine le Pen and the modernizers "going soft"?

Voridis was close to Jean-Marie Le Pen, so it would make sense if Lang was old guard.

[politicus]

Crete has always been the most left-wing area in Greece, so the results aren't really that surprising, but it's still interesting that 5 of the top 6 parties lean to the left (I'm not sure how true that is of Potami, but they're certainly the most left-wing party on social issues).  Even ANTARSYA is doing really well.

That is a very American way of looking at things. Potami - as it has evolved - is a Social Liberal party, which places them on the moderate centre-right by traditional European standards. It is the bourgeois vs. social democratic/socialist divide, where economy trumps social issues. I still think this way of looking at things basically makes the most sense regarding Europe.

Surprised Crete isn't even further to the left actually.

[politicus]

Regardless of whether social issues matter, can anyone say with confidence that The River is more liberal than SYRIZA on social issues? SYRIZA favors basically open immigration. I'm betting they also favor gay marriage too.

Yes they do. Potami/Syriza is about the same on social issue from what I know.

[politicus]

SYRIZA widens their lead in the last polls we are going to get, but the picture is otherwise a bit blurred. The numbers for undecideds, blanks and abstaining are also all over the place.

Newest polls:

GPO:

SYRIZA – 32.5%
New Democracy – 26.5%
Potami – 5.8%
KKE – 5.0%
Golden Dawn – 5.0%
PASOK – 4.4%
ANEL – 3.4%
Movement of Democrats Socialists – 3%
LAOS – 1.4%
Greens/Democratic Left – 1.0%
Others – 1.6%
Blank/abstain – 0.4%
Undecided – 10.0%

Metron Analysis:

SYRIZA – 29.6%
New Democracy – 25.2%
Potami – 5.9%
Golden Dawn – 4.4%
KKE – 4%
ANEL – 3.5%
PASOK – 3.3%
Movement of Democrats Socialists – 1.4%
LAOS – 1.0%
Others – 3.9%
Blank/Abstain – 9.3%
Undecided – 8.1%

Rass:

SYRIZA – 31.3%
New Democracy – 26.5%
Potami – 6.4%
KKE – 5.4%
Golden Dawn – 5.1%
PASOK – 4.3%
ANEL – 3.8%
Movement of Democrats Socialists – 2.5%
Others – 5.5%
Blank/abstain – 1%
Undecided – 8.2%

Palmos Analysis shows SYRIZA gaining a 9.9 point lead, while Golden Dawn is in third place over Potami!

SYRIZA – 30.2%
New Democracy – 20.3%
Golden Dawn – 6.8%
Potami – 5.1%
KKE – 4.3%
PASOK – 3.4%
ANEL – 2.2%
MDS – 1.7%
LAOS – 1.3%
Others – 4.5%
Blank/abstain – 5.1%
Undecided – 15.2%

[politicus]

Some Greek pollsters think Golden Dawn is underpolling again.

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/politics/article/from-prison-greeces-golden-dawn-runs-quiet-but-vitriolic-campaign

[politicus]

Please get their name right. It isn't 'Golden Dawn' it is 'Golden Shower'.

Thanks for enlightning us.

[politicus]

Samaras will be re-elected.

Buy Greek stocks if you really believe that.

I did at first, but nothing points that way and given that ND has gone right and Syriza has gone towards the center I just don't see it happening.

[politicus]

The polls published Friday, that did not include data from before the 21th:
    
                               ND    Syriza  Pasok ANEL XA    KKE Potami MDS  Others  Lead      
23 Jan    GPO            29.6   37.0     5.5   3.9    5.6    5.4     5.5       3.2  4.3      7.4
23 Jan    MRB            30.0   35.9     4.6   3.7    6.3     5.2     7.5       2.8  4.0      5.9
22–23  Interview     28.1   34.4     4.5   2.5    6.3     4.5     5.7       1.8  11.3    6.3
22–23  Kapa R.        32.3   35.5     5.3   2.9    6.1    5.0     5.5      2.8   4.6      3.2
21–23  PAMAK          28.5   36.0    5.5    4.0    6.5     6.0     7.5      1.5   4.0      7.5
21–23  Alco             30.0   37.6    5.1   4.1    6.2     4.2     6.2      2.6   2.9      7.6
21–23  Palmos          25.5   36.5    4.5   4.0    6.5     6.0     7.5    "-"    9.5     11.0

[politicus]

The polls have opened.

TOC has an acerbic evaluation of the campaign with some US references:
http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/opinion/article/the-samaras-tsipras-campaign-circus

On Samaras:

"in this winter campaign he literally broke the mold of self righteousness, ridicule, posturing, divisive rhetoric and silly conservatism. There were times while watching the PM’s arguments, that one was reminded of Republican caricatures from the other side of the Atlantic, like Sarah Palin, or Ted Cruz."

"In his frantic attempt to secure as many votes as possible, he abandoned the centrist voters and overly appealed to ultra right wing ones, at times putting the Reagan cold war rhetoric to shame. When he finally realized that by doing so, he was alienating the moderate ones, he attempted to lure them by scaring them with negative campaigning that even the GOP Super PACs would be envious of."

On Tsipras:

"Tsipras was focusing on imitating the style, political rhetoric and populism of the late Socialist PM Andreas Papandreou – promising everything under the sun and avoiding all the tough questions concerning his agenda."

[politicus]

per GPO, how support has moved between parties (I assume since Euro 2014; my Greek is terrible, I'm just assuming b/c Potami is included)

I can't even figure out what those graphics are saying about how the vote is flowing.

19% of KKE goes to SYRIZA
10% of To Potami goes to SYRIZA, 14% to ND
20% of PASOK goes to SYRIZA, 11.5% TO ND
19% of ANEL goes to SYRIZA, 16% to ND
9% of XA TO SYRIZA, 19% to ND
12% of others to SYRIZA, 12% of others to ND

SYRIZA vote breakdown: 91% retained, 1% to KKE, 1% to Papandreou, 0.5% to To Potami, 2.5% to ND, 3% undecided

ND vote breakdown: 83.5% retained, 10% to SYRIZA, 0.5% to To Potami, 1% to XA%, 5% undecided

Remarkably low ND to Potami move. Would have guessed 2% at least.

[politicus]

...nope, can't understand that one bit, lol

It shows the connection between wasted votes and the share needed for a single party majority.
With 3% wasted votes Syriza (or ND) would need 39.2% and with 16% wasted they would only need 34%.

[politicus]

Well, we have this. It's an exit poll, but I'd take this with the usual heavy grain of salt. Still, here it goes :

Syriza 33.5-35.5
ND 25.5-27.6
XA 6.4
To Potami 6.2
KKE 5
Pasok 4.5
Anel 4.3
Kidiso 2.9

The pollster is RIA Novosti, who didn't publish the single smallest poll in the run towards the election, all the more reason to be cautious.

An exit poll will be published by all TV networks at 7 PM. That is the only credible one.

[politicus]

An exit poll will be published by all TV networks at 7 PM. That is the only credible one.

Why 7pm?  I thought the polls close at 6pm?

No 7pm

http://www.thetoc.gr/eng/news/article/safe-estimate-of-the-election-results-at-2130-local-time

[politicus]

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras' conservative New Democracy party is protesting the release of what seems to be voter exit polls before the 7 pm (1700 GMT) close of polling stations.
It calls the publication of the exit polls by internet sites an "unprecedented, lousy action" designed to manipulate voters and asks the Justice Ministry to launch a probe, according to a statement.

This tells me the exit poll is most likely fairly accurate. 

Why? There is no way ND can know if it is accurate or not.