Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Hash]

This is quickly becoming a trainwreck again. Keep it on topic and keep it civil, maricones.

[politicus]

This is quickly becoming a trainwreck again. Keep it on topic and keep it civil, maricones.

Being a mod doesn't give you the right to use insults.

[Hash]

This is quickly becoming a trainwreck again. Keep it on topic and keep it civil, maricones.

Being a mod doesn't give you the right to use insults.

Maricones isn't an insult in Manizales, so it wasn't meant as such. It also doesn't change my point.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Interesting interview with Syriza's economics spokesperson. First off he has a great name - Euclid!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Estimate of 25% of Syriza members who want more immediate actions like nationalisations and arrests of old regime figures.

[politicus]

Interesting interview with Syriza's economics spokesperson. First off he has a great name - Euclid!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Estimate of 25% of Syriza members who want more immediate actions like nationalisations and arrests of old regime figures.

There is a split looming about a year or so into a Syriza government (or maybe even earlier) with the Left Platform forming a splinter party - especially if they have to govern with Potami or another "moderate hero" party. A Syriza minority government backed by KKE on the other hand would have to implement a more genuine Socialist policy, so the election result and choice of partner is also quite important. I still think the leadership has invested so much in a moderation that they will prefer a centrist partner, but after stating they will only govern with KKE (IMO both in order to put pressure on moderate leftists to give them a majority and keep internal cohesion), that backtracking could in itself lead to a split. Still, my guess is they stay united until the election is over and the troubles start afterwards.

[njwes]

Maricones isn't an insult in Manizales, so it wasn't meant as such. It also doesn't change my point.

..........

Are you sure? As a mod you should definitely know better than to use a term that large numbers of bilingual Latin Americans would translate as "f*ggots."



Anyway, does anyone think KKE might benefit from "True Leftists" who refuse to vote for the new and improved SYRIZA? It's always fun to see unreconstructed communist parties win lots of seats!

[politicus]

Maricones isn't an insult in Manizales, so it wasn't meant as such. It also doesn't change my point.

..........

Are you sure? As a mod you should definitely know better than to use a term that large numbers of bilingual Latin Americans would translate as "f*ggots."

Anyway, does anyone think KKE might benefit from "True Leftists" who refuse to vote for the new and improved SYRIZA? It's always fun to see unreconstructed communist parties win lots of seats!

KKE has been stable in most polls around 5.5%. There has been a few outliers so their interval past January 7 is between 4.4 and 7.0. There is nothing that indicates a KKE win. KKE is a special party and they don't really appeal to anyone outside their core constituency. If there was a widespread dissatisfaction with Syriza going soft I think it would go to other leftist option the alliance Front of the Greek Anticapitalist Left (ANTARSYA) - Left Front Coalition (MARS), which is much closer to the Syriza left wing in ideology and outlook.

The dynamic of the 50 seat bonus means that left wing voters know that only a Syriza win will get them power. If ND somehow gets ahead everything else doesn't matter much. There is a strong pressure for ND/Syriza polarization on the voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is there anywhere that epitomizes the Judean People's Front as much as the Greek left?

Hell Greece is a country where the Marxist-Leninist Communist Party of Greece and Communist Party of Greece (Marxist-Leninist) can't get along and need to be two seperate parties.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also the KKE have compared SYRIZA to Obama: http://inter.kke.gr/en/articles/SYRIZA-the-left-reserve-force-of-capitalism

Woohoo! Go SYRIZA!

[palandio]

Is there anywhere that epitomizes the Judean People's Front as much as the Greek left?

Hell Greece is a country where the Marxist-Leninist Communist Party of Greece and Communist Party of Greece (Marxist-Leninist) can't get along and need to be two seperate parties.

It always depends on what you mean by left. Everything to the left of mainstream social democrats/socialists and mainstream greens? Or only self-declared communists?

The Greek left seems to be quite far from People's Front of Judea mode. One very strong radical left party and one relevant orthodox communist party.
When it comes to sectarian communist splinters you also find similar situations in Germany (DKP, MLPD, PSG, KPD[1990], ABfdWdKPD, etc.), Britain, France etc.

Italy's communists are now in complete PFJ mode:
Communist Refoundation Party [PRC] (once a relevant party at 5-10%, now 1-2%)
Party of the Italian Communists [PdCI] (ideologically more orthodox, but at the same time more moderate PRC splinter, once 2-3%)
Communist Party of the Workers (trotskyist PRC splinter)
Critical Left (trotskyist PRC splinter)
Communists Popular Left - Communist Party (PdCI splinter)
Marxist-Leninist Party of Italy
Resistance Support Comittees for Communism
Communist Struggle

[politicus]

Depends on how we're gonna define mainstream of course. EPP has many more MEPs. In my opinion, as a whole, both ECR and EPP can be seen as mainstream conservative, as opposed to smaller, more radically right-wing/anti-EU groups. Tories in the UK and Fianna Fáil in Ireland have always been mainstream. Some smaller Eastern European member parties of ECR may not be mainstream. But remember, the controversial Fidesz still sits with the EPP.

You can not just define an alternative reality. EPP has the largest Conservative, Christian Democratic or other non-Liberal centre-right party as member in all other member states than Britain. Including the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the French Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), the Spanish People's Party (PP), Forza Italia and the Polish Civic Platform (PO)  and it has member parties in all of the EU member states except for the United Kingdom. This clearly makes them the mainstream Conservative/Christian Democratic group.
Fidesz is for better or worse the mainstream centre-right party in Hungary, so this doesn't change anything.

ECR is as earlier pointed out the a club for misfits of various types including a lot of the more moderate right wing populists. The fact that the British Tories are part of this group doesn't change that - it just underlines the Tories peculiar relationship to Europe.

[ObserverIE]

ECR is a very mixed bag of right wing populists, libertarians, National Conservatives and mainstream Conservatives like the Tories and Fianna Fail. You can not deduce anything about ANEL from their membership of this apart from the party being right wing and not Neo-Nazi.

It stretches from Fianna Fail and Tories over AfD, DPP/True Finns in Scandinavia to Croatian Party of Rights dr. Ante Starčević.

To be pedantic, Fianna Fáil the party is still in ALDE. It's just that its only MEP fell out with ALDE and jumped to ECR, much to the displeasure of a national leadership which is trying to position itself domestically as being centre-left (or at least to the left of FG).

[Philip Weisler]

FF has never been ideologically liberal, its ALDE membership is surely tactical. FG was already in the EPP so FF had to choose another faction. Also, FF has generally been a bit to the left of FG in economic matters. Now, I normally wouldn't recommend Political Compass, but I think they are right here (politicalcompass.org/ireland2011). FF used to sit together with French Gaullists in the EP (news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/3224666.stm).

To be pedantic, Fianna Fáil the party is still in ALDE. It's just that its only MEP fell out with ALDE and jumped to ECR, much to the displeasure of a national leadership which is trying to position itself domestically as being centre-left (or at least to the left of FG).

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

33% ND (ahead)
33% SYRIZA
  7% Potami
  6% XA
  6% KKE
  5% PASOK
  4% ANEL
  3% Kinima
  1% DIMAR
  2% Others

Turnout: 72%

[politicus]

My prediction:

33% ND (ahead)
33% SYRIZA
  7% Potami
  6% XA
  6% KKE
  5% PASOK
  4% ANEL
  3% Kinima
  1% DIMAR
  2% Others

Turnout: 72%

Why? ND hasn't been ahead since May and recent polls show Syriza increasing their margin.

[politicus]

ECR is a very mixed bag of right wing populists, libertarians, National Conservatives and mainstream Conservatives like the Tories and Fianna Fail. You can not deduce anything about ANEL from their membership of this apart from the party being right wing and not Neo-Nazi.

It stretches from Fianna Fail and Tories over AfD, DPP/True Finns in Scandinavia to Croatian Party of Rights dr. Ante Starčević.

To be pedantic, Fianna Fáil the party is still in ALDE. It's just that its only MEP fell out with ALDE and jumped to ECR, much to the displeasure of a national leadership which is trying to position itself domestically as being centre-left (or at least to the left of FG).

That particular detail has already been pointed out:

I feel it is only fair to point out that Fianna Fáil is affiliated to ALDE, and that their only MEP elected in 2014 was expelled from the parliamentary party for joining ECR.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

My prediction:

33% ND (ahead)
33% SYRIZA
  7% Potami
  6% XA
  6% KKE
  5% PASOK
  4% ANEL
  3% Kinima
  1% DIMAR
  2% Others

Turnout: 72%

Why? ND hasn't been ahead since May and recent polls show Syriza increasing their margin.

Probably expecting a last minute "devil you know" feeling from voters. Not that I agree, but I see the logic.

FT profiles the fate of the political dynasties of Greece - the Karamanlis, Mitsotakis and Papandreou families . The Mitsotakis seem to be doing well, Karamanlis a mixed bag and it is probably the end of the line for Georgios' clan.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

33% ND (ahead)
33% SYRIZA
  7% Potami
  6% XA
  6% KKE
  5% PASOK
  4% ANEL
  3% Kinima
  1% DIMAR
  2% Others

Turnout: 72%

Why? ND hasn't been ahead since May and recent polls show Syriza increasing their margin.

Probably expecting a last minute "devil you know" feeling from voters. Not that I agree, but I see the logic.

FT profiles the fate of the political dynasties of Greece - the Karamanlis, Mitsotakis and Papandreou families . The Mitsotakis seem to be doing well, Karamanlis a mixed bag and it is probably the end of the line for Georgios' clan.

Don't know, just a guess. Maybe ND manages to mobilize in the final few days or on election day.

Maybe Syriza wins big.

Never did a Greek prediction before (I guess).

[politicus]

My prediction:

33% ND (ahead)
33% SYRIZA
  7% Potami
  6% XA
  6% KKE
  5% PASOK
  4% ANEL
  3% Kinima
  1% DIMAR
  2% Others

Turnout: 72%

Why? ND hasn't been ahead since May and recent polls show Syriza increasing their margin.

Probably expecting a last minute "devil you know" feeling from voters. Not that I agree, but I see the logic.

FT profiles the fate of the political dynasties of Greece - the Karamanlis, Mitsotakis and Papandreou families.

I expected that when the campaign began, but with NDs decision to go to the right to shore up the ex-XA and ex-ANEL voters they basically let the center unguarded. ND gambled on going rightwards to pass Syriza and it hasn't paid off (or at least not enough). I don't see them getting much closer. Centrist voters have lots of options this time and I doubt those that feel the need to pick one of the big two will suddenly support a battered, worn out and rightleaning ND over a moderated Syriza in large numbers.

I also think Tender underestimates the effect of a high share of centrists/non-aligned and middle aged women among undecideds. They will give Potami a boost. It is the ultimate moderate hero/soft values party.

[politicus]

At this point:

35% SYRIZA
30% ND
9% Potami
6% XA
5.5% KKE
4.5% PASOK
3% ANEL
2.5% Kinima
1% DIMAR
3.5% Others

But I will wait for the last polls to see if something happens.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I would expect Potami to surge, were it not for the plurality bonus. As you say, I think moderates will pick Syriza - not because they are particularly enamoured with leftists, but to vote against the ECB.

[Philip Weisler]

See ''To Potami leader to set out coalition terms'' in Kathimerini (ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_20/01/2015_546383):

To Potami leader Stavros Theodorakis is on Wednesday expected to say that he will not consider working with SYRIZA after the elections unless the leftists agree to conclude the pending troika review before launching any discussion with Greece’s lenders about debt relief.

I would expect Potami to surge, were it not for the plurality bonus. As you say, I think moderates will pick Syriza - not because they are particularly enamoured with leftists, but to vote against the ECB.

EDIT: Today's article (ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_21/01/2015_546396):

To Potami will not take part in a government which will not support Greece's position within Europe, the center-left party's founder and head Stavros Theodorakis, said during a press conference in Athens on Wednesday.

As I previously argued, I'd expect Potami to ally with ND and PASOK on matters related to the Greek ''European perspective''. They're going to be pro-bailout.

[swl]

It seems like a sound position, Greece should turn this page before starting a new one.
At this point my favorite outcome for this election is a Syriza + To Potami coalition.

When are the last polls published?

[politicus]

When are the last polls published?

Friday

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

@Philip, do you really expect is Syriza get the 50 seat bonus (and they probably will), To Potami will try to cobble together with a some sort of ND-PASOK alliance with no way near a majority?

They want to be in government and will do a deal with either party that wins the bonus - which looks like Syriza if the polls are doing good and people are being honest in their responses. That said, such a government possibly won't last a full term - either due to To Potami pulling out or (more likely) defectional disorder among Syriza.

Venizelos has just said he is open to PASOK being in a Syriza led government as has Kammenos of ANEL.