Greek election - January 25th 2015

[politicus]

It's looking likely that ANEL won't directly enter government themselves- but their support allows Tsipras to prove to the President his government will have the confidence of Parliament.

I really hope so. Tovima speculates about ANEL taking over shipping matters etc. as if it would be an actual coalition government.

[politicus]

The international media use phrases as "looks to have formed a government"..

[politicus]

Tsipras to meet Greek president Karolos Papoulias at 3.30pm, will submit the names of his cabinet.

Syriza MP Dragasakis to become Deputy PM overlooking the Finance & Economy Ministries and leading negotiations with the Eurozone. Yanis Varaufakis as finance minister.

[politicus]

Tsipras has promised not to enter coalition with others than KKE. If he breaks that promise he risks defections from his left wing (which will be bigger than any potential coalition partner), so it wont be worth it.

If KKE says no, and the only way to obtain a majority is through To Potami or ANEL, he will break the promise.

Bam! Hate to say I told you so... (/Yes I am an insufferable person)
He didn't even wait for KKE to say no. ^^

Well, the problem I pointed out still exists. We do not know exactly how many of the new MPs that are Left Platform, but it is about 25% of the party and they will be alienated from the start. This is going to be a trainwreck.

Also, you obviously love to say "I told you so" Don't be a hypocrite.

I always assumed Syriza would be pragmatic when it came to coalition partner if they really needed a lot of seats (although I thought they would try Potami first), but not in a 148-149 scenario. This seems like an unnecessary gamble with possibly 30-40 left wingers among the MPs.

[politicus]

So where exactly are the similarities between Syriza and ANEL other than that they disapprove of the troika? This almost feels like a coalition between the Left Party and AfD here in Germany.

Nowhere. ANEL is a far-right party: anti-immigrant, anti-semitic, pro-church and very much pro-law-and-order.
It will be a travesty of a government that won't last long, for better or worse.

Who did you vote for px?

Kinima. But of course Papandreou is much too sane and serious for a joke country like Greece.

1) Do you think Syriza would have chosen Kinima if they had gotten in? (I doubt it, but curious)

2) What do you think happens after this government collapses?

[politicus]

I would expect Tsipras to have enough political savvy to know if this would cause mass defections from his caucus, so I don't think, initially at least, that that part will turn out to be a problem. Let's not forget that he is one of few leaders who managed to keep all his MPs through the last parliament.
 

There is a big difference between being in opposition and in government - and at some point they will need to address non-austerity related matters.

[politicus]

If you see any bookies offering bets on Syriza defections within the first six months let me know.

[politicus]

Tsipras will break the tradition by not being sworn in by the head of Greece’s orthodox church, Archbishop Ieronymos.

[politicus]

Interview with one of the leading spokesmen for the Left Platform. He avoids answering the question of what will happen if Syriza does not get a majority on its own, but his description of their relationship to the leadership is telling.

"the Left Platform plus the left wings of the majority bloc are actually the majority inside the party, and we have seen that in the last period, for example on the crucial issue of alliances. The leadership pushed very much for an alliance with Dimar, and it didn’t succeed. It didn’t succeed because the reaction inside the party was overwhelming, and the motor of that reaction were these two left components.

So despite the fact that the question of the euro still works to prevent a more cohesive attitude in what we can now call the broad left of the party, it is nevertheless the case that the room for maneuver for the leadership has become much more limited.

Unfortunately, the majority of the leadership has autonomized itself yet further from the party and disregarded the party decisions. I’m not here talking about some kind of simple divide between the base and the leadership — I mean autonomous from the party as a whole. And that is, of course, a very serious risk for the future."

Hard to see these guys just bow their heads and adapt to a Syriza-Anel alliance. They got 30% at the founding congress in Syriza.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2015/01/phase-one/

[politicus]

So I wonder if this means SYRIZA won't pass gay marriage. Though they still could with Potami and PASOK support. Actually I wonder how KKE would vote on that, would be interesting.

Gay marriage would be impossible with Anel. It would just be too big a humiliation for them.

[politicus]

Why did SYRIZA work out an alliance with ANEL anyway?  Seems to me that anything on their agenda there is at least another party that supports said policy so they can just pass their agenda with support from a different opposition party on a case by case basis.  it would seem to me that the main reason for the alliance with ANEL would be to make sure that the government is rock solid to take on the bailout negotiations which would be tough.  

Yeah, there are bound to be defections and they needed a buffer, but it was still a hasty and almost certainly wrong decision.

[politicus]

Hard to see these guys just bow their heads and adapt to a Syriza-Anel alliance. They got 30% at the founding congress in Syriza.

We should not forget the possibility that it'll be ANEL, and not the SYRIZA left-wing that gets the short stick in this agreement. I think it's much more possible that Syriza runs over ANEL with left-wing policies, that will cause ANEL to rebel, than it is that they take a huge leap to the centre thereby annihilating their own caucus.

I have so far never heard of a coalition government where the dominant party didn't get to decide 90-95% of the policies leaving just crumbs to their partners, so I don't see why SYRIZA would actually give ANEL any meaningful influence on the new governments policy.   

True, but this coalition deal happens in a context where a pragmatic leadership is trying to moderate the party's policies on a wide range of issues, while a principled and well organized left wing (both Left Platform and the left wing of the majority coalition) tries to insist on to a more radical agenda. An alliance with a right wing party is bound to influence this internal power struggle and move the leadership further to the right.

[politicus]

Looks like Marine Le Pen of the French National Front is also a Syriza supporter, outside of Syriza's immigration policy.  The move toward ANEL will probably confirm those feelings.

Marine Le Pen is obviously trying to cash in on Syriza's success (even though their platforms have really nothing in common), but I don't see how that's relevant to Greece in any way.

If I remember well, Panzergirl and the FN's troupe have said some kind words about Podemos in Spain. They dislike their "sectarianism" and likely the immigration platform, similar to Syriza's. Obviously, they are fishing in the troubled waters of the "establishment". Pure demagogic tactics.

Sticking it to the EU basically.

[politicus]

Why should Syriza feel the need to go to the voters again with 149 seats behind them? It is a matter of keeping their coalition together, which will be easier if Tsipras play hardball, than if he makes concessions.

[politicus]

Gotta love how this guy manage to spin the fact that anti-austerity forces enjoy a 12-point advantage over pro-austerity ones in the Greek electorate into an indication that Europe "should not be afraid of standing up to the new Athens coalition".

The Greek people have spoken, and the results are clear to even the most stubborn hack.

What factual aspect of this person's write-up do you disagree with ? I happen to agree with the facts a lot.  My view election night as the results came in

Looking at the results so far it seems this election is mostly about DIMAR-Green and ANEL vote from June 2012 going to SYRIZA.  Other than that it is mostly small shifts of the same votes between various similar parties  (like PASOK ->  KIDISO and River)

Pretty much matches what this guy wrote.  It seem to me what took place was a consolidation of the anti-austerity majority around SYRIZA in 2015 where as it was splintered in June 2012.  I guess on part I disagree with this person on is that DIMAR should not really be considered anti-austerity in June 2012 but its vote base for sure swung to an anti-austerity position in 2015.  In that sense something did change.  

The factual part about the election result is fine, but rather obvious. The conclusions he draws from it are strange and irrational.