Greek election - January 25th 2015

[politicus]

So I wonder if this means SYRIZA won't pass gay marriage. Though they still could with Potami and PASOK support. Actually I wonder how KKE would vote on that, would be interesting.

Gay marriage would be impossible with Anel. It would just be too big a humiliation for them.

[jaichind]

Why did SYRIZA work out an alliance with ANEL anyway?  Seems to me that anything on their agenda there is at least another party that supports said policy so they can just pass their agenda with support from a different opposition party on a case by case basis.  it would seem to me that the main reason for the alliance with ANEL would be to make sure that the government is rock solid to take on the bailout negotiations which would be tough.  

[politicus]

Why did SYRIZA work out an alliance with ANEL anyway?  Seems to me that anything on their agenda there is at least another party that supports said policy so they can just pass their agenda with support from a different opposition party on a case by case basis.  it would seem to me that the main reason for the alliance with ANEL would be to make sure that the government is rock solid to take on the bailout negotiations which would be tough.  

Yeah, there are bound to be defections and they needed a buffer, but it was still a hasty and almost certainly wrong decision.

[Philip Weisler]

The thing is, in some countries the economic left-right axis is more important, in some others the libertarian-authoritarian - I'd personally use the term ''liberal-conservative'' - axis is more prominent. The latter seems to be the case in well-off countries of Northern Europe. Like Sweden. As I tried to argue before, this axis is not dominant in Greece as of now.

But you can take the Netherlands until Cabinet Kok I (1994-1998) as an example of economic axis being more important. The Christian Democratic parties were economically centrist and governed with either the Party of Labour on the left or with the economically liberal VVD on the right. Only in 1994 could the socially liberal parties from the left and right form a coalition. According to Wikipedia:

The cabinet started processes of liberalisation which were completed by the same coalition in the following cabinet: the legalisation of prostitution in 2000, same-sex marriage in 2001 and Euthanasia in 2002.

So where exactly are the similarities between Syriza and ANEL other than that they disapprove of the troika? This almost feels like a coalition between the Left Party and AfD here in Germany.

[Philip Weisler]

@Charlotte

I hope your world did not collapse because of that ''wrong decision'' that revealed lots of the discussion here about SYRIZA+Potami etc as what it was - wishful thinking .

Yeah, there are bound to be defections and they needed a buffer, but it was still a hasty and almost certainly wrong decision.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

From a pragmatic standpoint, ANEL are partners in opposition to austerity. I dislike the speed at which this alliance was made but hope that it is as short as is necessary.

[politicus]

Hard to see these guys just bow their heads and adapt to a Syriza-Anel alliance. They got 30% at the founding congress in Syriza.

We should not forget the possibility that it'll be ANEL, and not the SYRIZA left-wing that gets the short stick in this agreement. I think it's much more possible that Syriza runs over ANEL with left-wing policies, that will cause ANEL to rebel, than it is that they take a huge leap to the centre thereby annihilating their own caucus.

I have so far never heard of a coalition government where the dominant party didn't get to decide 90-95% of the policies leaving just crumbs to their partners, so I don't see why SYRIZA would actually give ANEL any meaningful influence on the new governments policy.   

True, but this coalition deal happens in a context where a pragmatic leadership is trying to moderate the party's policies on a wide range of issues, while a principled and well organized left wing (both Left Platform and the left wing of the majority coalition) tries to insist on to a more radical agenda. An alliance with a right wing party is bound to influence this internal power struggle and move the leadership further to the right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just wanting to say I've been reading this thread assiduously from its start. I didn't want to post in it for fear that the results would disappoint me once again, but, amazingly, for once things went right! Well, almost: it's quite frustrating to see Syriza so friggin' close to an absolute majority, which would have provided for a lot more safety in the battles that will soon ensue. Still, this is a great day for democracy, for Greece, and for Europe.

[Tender Branson]

Already sworn in ?

That was quick.

Hopefully they get some important things done and let's hope he doesn't end up being a Hollande-clone.

[Bacon King]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength. An alliance with ANEL will prevent critics from being able to make a traditional "left vs. right" issue out of it, and instead he can claim to be leading a movement that's so important that it transcends traditional partisan boundaries. Also if he takes a hard stance against the troika he'll have an easier time keeping both ANEL and his own party in line- if they're playing hardball with Europe, nobody in that coalition is going to vote for new elections while the stakes are so high.

I'm not sure if this will work in the slightest but I definitely see the method to the madness

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Standard and Poor's threaten to cut Greek credit rating.

[You kip if you want to...]

Standard and Poor's threaten to cut Greek credit rating.

If they really wanted to hurt Tsipras though, they'd have done it pre-election.

[Beezer]

First thing Tsipras does is visit a memorial to 200 Greeks killed by the Nazis...

http://news.sky.com/story/1415233/greece-alexis-tsipras-visits-war-memorial

[Foucaulf]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength...

Agree with BK, though I'd like to be more specific:

What is the one fear that the Eurocrats have? A Greek exit from the Euro. Both sides in the negotiations know that, were the Greeks to decide on a Grexit, it would have to be a sudden and unannounced decision from the Greek side. Now we're in a standard principal-agent problem, where the Europeans have to make the initial offer to the Greeks which also does not push them to default.

The problem is that, over the past few years, default has been taken off of the table as a serious option (not nearly as prevalent as it was in 2012). For Tsipras to get more concessions out of the Europeans, he has to credibly raise the idea that his government would consider default as an option. This would be why he chose ANEL over Potami, and according to this theory he will let his left wing make more rabble-rousing as the negotiations start. It is to his benefit that he frames the negotiations as if it were a hostage situation.


Also think people here are placing their pessimism in this coalition in the wrong place - the left will rebel as soon as Tsipras can't get the Europeans to move, let alone all those other issues.

[rob in cal]

So, does the move toward Anel signal that a Grexit is more likely or less likely than first thought?

[Landslide Lyndon]

So I wonder if this means SYRIZA won't pass gay marriage. Though they still could with Potami and PASOK support. Actually I wonder how KKE would vote on that, would be interesting.

Gay marriage would be impossible with Anel. It would just be too big a humiliation for them.

Gay marriage would have been impossible anyway. We just aren't there yet as a people.

[jaichind]

So, does the move toward Anel signal that a Grexit is more likely or less likely than first thought?

It is more to convince the Germans that they might really be crazy, in order to extract more concessions.  Not sure this will work since giving concessions to the Greeks would probably trigger demands from other beleaguered southern economies for similar relief.

[Meeker]

Surely Tsipras and his team thought this all through in the week or two leading up to the election? It seems unlikely he's making this decision on the fly, which leads me to agree with BK and Foucaulf.

It's somewhat reminiscent of Boehner's negotiating strategy on government funding and the debt ceiling during 2011-13.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, does the move toward Anel signal that a Grexit is more likely or less likely than first thought?

It is more to convince the Germans that they might really be crazy, in order to extract more concessions.  Not sure this will work since giving concessions to the Greeks would probably trigger demands from other beleaguered southern economies for similar relief.

The CDU probably wouldn't want to lose any votes to the AfD too, which could happen if it looks the Greeks are given too much leeway. On the other hand, it isn't really an important election year with state elections happening only Hamburg and Bremen. 2016 would be much tougher.

[justfollowingtheelections]

Landslide, is there a reason why the Centrists did better in Macedonia and especially in Thessaloniki?

Also, can you tell us a little bit about Teleia?

[Philip Weisler]

This is exactly why I doubt that the sides could reach a real compromise such as 50% write-off. In general of course it is better to get 50% of your money back as opposed to nothing at all, but such a write-off would immediately give ammunition to PODEMOS in Spain etc. - ''if SYRIZA could, we'll make it as well''. And it's election year in Spain and Portugal . So I think Brussels will rather let Greece default and expel Greece from the Eurozone. A kind of a warning to others, after all.

It is more to convince the Germans that they might really be crazy, in order to extract more concessions.  Not sure this will work since giving concessions to the Greeks would probably trigger demands from other beleaguered southern economies for similar relief.

[EPG]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

[justfollowingtheelections]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

Huh? How is that inflammatory?

[Mehmentum]

The more I think about it, the more I believe Tsipras knew exactly what he was doing by immediately seeking support from ANEL. This sent an immediate signal to the world that his government will take a hard and uncompromising line against austerity, and that he intends to be negotiating with Europe from a position of strength.

Yes, exactly. This election was not about gay marriage or Occupy Wall Street, it was about how hard Greece should negotiate for money from Europe. The outcome is best understood as a nationalist government. That is why they do not fear singing "we'll take Berlin", or visiting graves of the victims of German wars, which actions are inflammatory to Greece's creditors. Open and evident conflict with Europe serves SYRIZA and ANEL.

Huh? How is that inflammatory?

Its a shot across the bow of Merkel and the Germans.

[Franzl]

Greece is not in a position to blackmail us at this point anymore, and if they intend to go about this in an aggressive way which does seem to be the message so far, they stand more to lose than anyone else.

We'll see.