Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[politicus]

All in all it looks like the Red-Greens have lost their chance to become a big party - this time. It will still be crucial if they manage to stay ahead of SPP. If they do I think they will squeeze out SPP in the long run. SPP is the second most redundant party in Danish politics (no prize for guessing who is no. 1) and if the Red-Greens would kick out their Trots/Antifa-sympathizers, drop the rotation rule for MPs, create an actual youth organization (instead of relying on an activist style unaffiliated Socialist Youth Front), run their own list in the Euros (a chance to scoop up left wing Eurosceptics) and elect an actual chairman they could probably kill off SPP in a decade. Of course that is not going to happen, but even a couple of these changes would go a long way.

I see what you did there. Basically, what you say is : if only Red-Greens could become a "serious business" party like SD or Venstre, they would finally be a "serious business" party. Well, maybe they want to renew things a bit and not be a copy of what has always been done.

Of course they do, but it limits their appeal beyond certain relatively well educated segments. In general working class people and rural/small town people do not like "alternative" politics.

Some of those things are also hypocritical. Red-Green MPs that step down because of rotation rules get jobs in the party organization, so in reality they remain professional politicians until they can run for office next time. They hardly ever go out on the normal labour market and get regular jobs. Making the process look like a strange ritual rather than a meaningful safeguard against inbred bread and butter politicians.

SPP has four key advantages over Red-Greens:

1) Lack of extremists and/or perceived link to extremists
2) The perception that it is a normal party
3) Is attractive/accommodating to non-socialist progressives (some from a Christian background)
4) Lack counterproductive restraints on outreach mechanisms and efficiency.

Then there is one important cleavage:
SPP being EU positive and Red-Greens being eurosceptic.

If Red-Greens are going to grow they need to counter some of those advantes. 2) and 4) are connected and 2) may be more important than 4).
1), 2) and 4) are also problematic in terms of attracting SD left wingers.

Red-Greens have inherited some network among union representatives from the old Communists and being the most anti-austerity/neo-liberal party it could potentially gain more votes from workers and disadvantaged groups if perceived as less weird and distanced. The majority of blue collar types are alienated from left wing politics at this point, but there is still a significant segment that is not.

[politicus]

Will the terrorist attacks from last weekend have political consequences, for instance a "rally round the flag"-effect which will benefit the left bloc and SD or a DF surge because of anti-Islam sentiments?

There has been some speculation about whether HTS will call an election in about a month if a "rally round flag" effect materializes for fear of making "a Stoltenberg" (not capitalizing on sympathy votes and instead waiting to after the media narrative changes to critique of the authorities (which it always does). If Red Bloc is on 48% or better it would be tempting since it might be her only chance and SD has a good "campaign machine".

On the other hand in 2001 Nyrup Rasmussen tried to ride the "rally round the flag" effect after 9/11 and failed miserably and that lesson may deter SD (or it may not, we will see).

I disagree with Ingemann that the centre-left can not go any lower. Red Bloc has been picking up a bit and were on 46%+ before the shootings. I think their floor is "combined left wing" 13-15%, SD 18-20%, SocLibs 5%, so 38% total, with 33% going to the "historically socialist parties" (for lack of a better term.

30% of Danes are self identified Socialists and this group would generally never vote for "bourgeois" parties, althogh some may stay home.

That said I doubt this attack was serious enough to create a massive DPP surge (terrible thing to say, but looking at it from a practical angle). Copenhagen had its first post-war terrorist attack back in 1985, there has been a gang war going on in Copenhagen with shootings by immigrant gangs (this can be seen as merely a gang member turning his anger against new enemies), so Danes are not totally mentally unprepared for something like this to happen. The number of provocations from young Arabs ("they had it coming", "Omar is a hero for doing something instead of talking" etc.) might provoke a backlash, but probably not a sufficiently strong one. This is also tricky for DPP since they have tried to look more moderate, serious and respectable. They can not go full scale anti-Islam on this.

Some people are very angry about this and it naturally massively increases Lars Hedegaards chances of getting elected. I also think Danish Unity could have passed the threshold if they had been on the ballot, but as they are not that is a moot point.

[politicus]

First post-shootings poll from Megafon:

Red-Greens 10,0% (+1,2)
SPP 6,5% (-0,1)
SD 21,6% (+0,8)
Social Liberals 6,7% (+0,2)

Liberal Alliance 6,4% (+2,1)
Conservatives 5,0% (-0,3)
DPP 19,6% (-1,1)
Liberals 23,0% (-1,8)

Christian Democrats 0,5%

Other 0,8% (Lars Hedegaard mainly, I think)

Compared to their last poll in late January there is a slight gain for the left. Red-Greens gain 1,2% and SD 0,8%. Liberals lose 1,8% and DPP 1,1%, while Liberals Alliance gains 2,1% after the Ministry of Finance confirmed that their economic policy according to its economic models would make Denmark significantly more wealthy.

[politicus]

In a separate Megafon poll HTS is the most popular PM candidate:

Would you prefer Helle Thorning-Schmidt or Lars Løkke Rasmussen as PM after the next election?

Helle Thorning-Schmidt: 43%

Equally good/bad: 20%

Lars Løkke Rasmussen: 34%

Dunno: 3%


If Denmark was to be hit by a terrorist attack again would you prefer, that it was Helle Thorning-Schmidt or Lars Løkke Rasmussen that was PM in such a situation?

Helle Thorning-Schmidt: 39%

Equally good/bad: 31%

Lars Løkke Rasmussen: 21%

Dunno: 9%


Do you think HTS has handled the situation under and after the terrorist attack in Copenhagen well or badly?

Very well or well: 72%

Neither: 17%

Very badly or badly: 4%

Dunno: 7%

[politicus]

If Alternativet receives 1,9% (under the 2% threshold for parliamentary representation) of the votes in the election, their votes would indirectly benefit the Danish Peoples party and the blue bloc just as the Feminist Initiative party indirectly benefited the Sweden Democrats by only receiving 3,1% (which was under the 4% threshold in Sweden). Morten Messerschmidt of the DPP and Simon Emil Amitzböll of the Liberal Alliance encouraged their followers on Facebook and Twitter to help Alternativet get on the ballots.

Not going to happen. Uffe Elbæk is no Gudrun Schyman.

The article also says that Nationalpartiet has only got 7.000  signatures, which means they do not have a snowballs chance in hell even with a late election date. So 10 parties contesting.

EDIT: Since 2013 it has been planned to allow electronic registration of signatures, which will make it possible for voters to approve their signatures using the NemID code, that almost all Danes have and save parties a lot of man hours and the roughly 70.000$ that is cost to send enough signatures back and forth at the moment. This change was supposed to have been implemented from January 1, but is now apparently scheduled to some unknown date in the spring. If it is implemented 2-3 months before an election some of the better organized micro parties might make it, but that is a big if.

EDIT:EDIT: In all fairness some political commentators (notably Thomas Larsen on Berlingske) seems to take the possibility N. mentioned serious - but then again it is a better story than just writing them off. I would still expect them to get around 0,5%, not 1,5%+.

[politicus]

I think you guys underestimate the disillusionment that is currently felt by many Radikale and SF voters and among leftist voters in general. The Radikale and SF has lost much of their former idealistic "glow" with their participation in government. The Radikale has had to compromise heavily on matters of immigration (and other "values-issues") and proven to be more "rightwing" in economic policy than many of their voters would prefer while SF is still tainted by the disastrous exit from government and the factional fighting that occurred in that period. In contrast "Alternativet" has a fresh slate and is primarily driven by grassroots members. Unlike the Feminist Initiative which had no ballot access and no right to participate in the official party leaders debates when they started out, Alternativet has tons of legitimacy in the eyes of the voters solely by their success in getting on the ballots. Uffe Elbæk could potentially prove to be a huge success in the debatesand from there only the sky is the limit.

Well, unlike you I live in Denmark and I assure you that your interpretation is incorrect. Elbæk can attract a small segment on the far left of Radikale and possibly some soft Red Greens (non-socialist idealists), but SF is not particularly vulnerable. The environment will be their main selling point in the campaign and Pia Olsen Dyhr is from their green right wing. Their remaining non-socialist voters are not looking for an Alternative.

Uffe Elbæk is a nice guy, but not an efficient debater. The second bolded part is lol worthy bordering on lmao. We are talking about this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WzzJgatxg0

Another problem is the lack of well-known candidates. Former vicar Ulla Sandbæk (72), who sat in the European parliament for 15 years (for eurosceptic citizen movements - ending in 2004) is the only one except Elbæk that is well-known (a 70+ has been being the second best known should tell you something).

Elbæks only chance is to attract "names" because his project becomes cool - preferably also from the greenie part of the business world.

EDIT: Regarding refugees their policy is a mess with different people saying different things. They want to go Third Way and "think smart" both using resources more visely by helping in the near areas and at the same time send ships to the conflict zones to collect refugees in order to avoid refugee trafficking/smugling. All very nice, but in the polarized Danish "foreigner" debate stuff like that wont fly.

I actually like the Alternative (or rather elements of their policy), but their chances are very small. Someone more charismatic than Elbæk might have been able to pull it off, but it is a tough sell in a crowded market. The innovation/entrepreneurship part is the new thing and genuine left wingers are not going for that.

[politicus]

On the topic of a right wing alternative to DPP and Islamophobia in general there was a YouGov poll conducted in late January on acceptable maximum Muslim population. It is poorly worded, but the result is still interesting and would likely be more negative post-shootings. It should also be noted that the poll does not include anyone 75+ (obviously not a pro-multiculti segment) and that "religion is a private matter" is a 97%+ view in Denmark, so including that in the no-option likely increases that number.

"How large a share of the Danish population should Muslims in your opinion maximally constitute now and in the future?"

0%: 7%
1-5%: 24%
6-10%: 14%
11-20%: 4%
20-30%: 1%
"I can and will not answer that because religion is a private matter": 42%
Dunno: 8%

There are 4,1% Muslims in Denmark with a high share of children/youth and relatively high fertility, so anything below 7-8% would de facto require repatriations.

[politicus]

The Red-Green Alliance is holding their annual General Conference as late as June 5-7, which means that popular party spokesperson Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen can avoid the party's 7 years in office maximum and run in the election if it is announced before then (as most political observers expect it will be).

[politicus]

The Alternative on 1,2% in Voxmeter poll (first poll that includes the party)

* Social Democrats: 23,1/41

* Social Liberals: 7,8/14

* Conservatives: 5,3/9

* SPP: 6,9/12

* Liberal Alliance: 4,8/ 9

* Christian Democrats: 0,3/0

* DPP: 19,6/35

* Liberals: 22,3/40

* Red-Greens: 8,5 /15

* The Alternative: 1,2/0

* Others: 0,2/0

[politicus]

In another poll by Greens Analyseinstitut for Børsen, the Alternative got 1.7%, so a quite good start for the party.

Surprising. Much will depend whether they can quickly get above 2% and stay above in a couple of polls, thus killing the vote wasting narrative.

Also of course interesting which parties their voters come from. My guess would be around 50% dissatisfied Radikale left wingers, around 15% non-socialist Red Greens of the "generic idealist" variety and the last third spread over a wider range of parties than one would expect and possibly also a lot of first time voters + non-voters.

I still doubt they are all left wing voters - especially not SPP voters.

I also remain sceptical as to whether they remain viable once the other parties sink their teeth into their program and attack their fluffy ideas.

[politicus]

I think you guys underestimate the disillusionment that is currently felt by many Radikale and SF voters and among the non-socialist segment of leftist voters in general. Radikale and SF has lost much of their former idealistic "glow" with their participation in government. Radikale has been unambitious on environmental and energy policy, has had to compromise heavily on matters of immigration (and other "values-issues" and proven to be more "rightwing" in economic policy than many of their voters would prefer while SF is still tainted by the disastrous exit from government and the factional fighting that occurred in that period. In contrast "Alternativet" has a fresh slate and is primarily driven by grassroots members. Unlike the Feminist Initiative which had no ballot access and no right to participate in the official party leaders debates when they started out, Alternativet has both ballot access  and has tons of legitimacy in the eyes of the voters solely by their success in getting on the ballots will get to participate in debates. Uffe Elbæk could potentially prove to be a huge success in the debates and from there only the sky is the limit.

Well, Nortexius, in light of the first polls you seem to be right about part of your very rosy prediction. I would agree in the non-crossed out with the bolded part added.

[politicus]

Well, Nortexius, in light of the first polls you seem to be right about part of your very rosy prediction. I would agree in the non-crossed out with the bolded part added.

Well, it seems my theories have been partially redeemed but i think you're overestimating SFs comeback and underestimating the results the government breakup had on the image of SF in the eyes of the average voter. Ever since SF joined the government, their anti-establishment credentials and idealistic zeal is basically zero. Pia Ohlsen Dyhr is more of a government technocrat than an anti-capitalist crusader for the working class even when she's outside government. SF may in name be a socialist and green party but today it's more of a clientelist party with no ideology catering to female public sector workers and students. Alternativet has everything that SF (and the Radikale) currently is missing most: Idealism, anti-establishment ideas they don't have to take responsibility for, an interesting and unique leader, no history of shady compromises and the ability to make their voters project whatever they want onto the party. 1,9-2,5% in the upcoming election is not that farfetched the way i see it.

Your ideas about SF are quite strange to a Dane. What do you base them on? No one expects an SF chairman to be "an anti-capitalist crusader for the working class". Their core supporters would be shocked if Olsen Dyhr started doing that. It is a reformist middle class party. They gave up actual socialism around 1990. Socialism matters to most of the party as an identity marker and as a wish to pursue left social democratic policies rather than the Third Way-ish quasi neo-liberal stuff SD is pursuing these day.

The image of the average voter is irrelevant to SF, since the average voter does not vote on them anyway. It is a niche party that has regained most of their core support, which is all that matters right now.

Also,Uffe Elbæk is not "interesting and unique". He is a (highly successful) project maker from the creative class (not a popular group in Denmark) using public money to finance various ideas and scoring the profit and he has no charisma (which is a much larger handicap for a politician in Denmark than in Sweden). All succesful party creators in the post war era has had personal charisma - either one charismatic leader or a team including a person with charisma.

[politicus]

Tbf seeing as Denmark is the first country in the world to have a 100% renewable (in all forms of energy) target it must be hard to be unambituous in terms of environmental issues. Is any party in Denmark against the 100% target btw?

Setting targets is easy - especially as far out as 2050. Trying to reach them is harder.

The government could have made a very ambitious energy plan with the Red Greens, but chose a less ambitious one after a compromise with the centre-right in order to achieve stability in the field, this disappointed some greenies.

Liberal Alliance was the only party that was not part of the deal. So officially everybody else supports the 100% target.

[politicus]

Ritzau poll about Alternativet

7,3% of voters are considering voting for them (notice that 13% consider voting for a party to the right of DPP - and 30% once considered voting for New Alliance. Danish voters are pretty cavalier about what they "consider")

81% of those with a previous party choice come from Red Bloc and 19% from Blue Bloc

No specification, but they do give share of voters that consider voting Alternativet for each party:

* Red Greens: 14 percent (second largest contributor with about 1%)

* SPP: 12,5 percent (fourth largest with about 0,75%)

* Radikale: 11 percent (third largest with about 0,85%)

* Social Democrats: 10 percent (making SD the biggest contributor with about 2,3% of the potential Alternativet voters)

* Conservatives: 6 percent (about 0,3%)

* Liberal Alliance: 5 percent (about 0,3%)

* DPP: 2 percent (about 0,4%)

* Liberals: 0,6 percent (about 0,1%)

So 1,1% Centre-right, 4,9% centre-left, 1,3% from new voters or non-voters. Rough estimates that do not add up perfectly of course, would be nice to see the actual numbers, but almost a third from SD is interesting.

For those that do not follow Danish politics closely: Conservatives are traditionally a lot greener than Liberals and DPP, so not surprising there is a bigger potential, especially with the party leader going anti-green. Liberal Alliance has a fair share of ex-Radikale which explain their numbers. Perhaps the entrepreneur/green business message also appeal to some from the two  "business" parties.

[politicus]

So what these people really say here, is that they accept Muslims live in Denmark, but they don't want them to be much bigger group than they are now.

There is a steady increase in the Muslim population over time and it is unlikely to stabilize anytime soon. Growing refugee pressure will add to this.

The 7% saying zero percent are obviously Islamophobic and most likely consider DPP too soft.

I think it is clear that people saying 1-5% have a negative attitude towards Muslims. In my experience most Danes think that the Muslim population is around 10%, so this equals support for repatriations. This is mostly based on young people, but older folks are unlikely to think the number is lower.
(it would be interesting to see a poll of how many Muslims the average Dane thinks there are)

This is already 31% with a negative view, which is after all a substantial share of the population.

The 14% saying 6-10% are mostly "immigration stop" people.

You then got 5% that can accept some increase and 42%, who either feel it is racist to set a quota for a particular group or belong to the relatively few that are pro free immigration (part of those would be "open borders, but closed coffers" right wingers).

And again: Given the lack of olds and the non-neutral phrasing of the "no limit" option those numbers are bound to be on the low side.

[politicus]

Former Liberal MEP, serial entrepreneur (and serial bankrupter) and financial speculator Klaus Riskær Petersen (59) has announced he will try to get a place on Alternativets candidate list. Riskær is convicted for various forms of economic crimes, but has managed several comebacks in the business world. Now it looks like he will attempt a political comeback as well.

Entrepreneurship is one of the three core areas for Alternativet, and he definitely has some experience in that field. While obviously not a candidate Elbæk & Co wants on their list, but it can be difficult to block him given the small m$embership, unlimited membership democracy and "anyone can join" rules. It will be decided on March 17, whether he gets on the candidate list in Copenhagen.

Riskær was always a maverick and is the son of an artist, hippie and famous resistance fighter, so he may be culturally closer to Alternativet, than one would expect.

The official reason for the "no thanks" from the party leadership is that they do not want famous people on their list, since that wil distract from their message. Then again, Riskær is just as infamous as he is famous.

[politicus]

DPP down to 17%+ in a new Voxmeter poll. Lowest level in a long time. Voxmeter had them on 18.7 a week ago and has recently been polling DPP below other pollsters.

The Alternative just below the threshold. Red Bloc on 48.2% incl. The Alternative against 51.0% to Blue Bloc. Getting closer.

A    Socialdemokraterne    24.3    44
B    Radikale Venstre    7.1    13
C    Konservative Folkeparti 4.6   8
F    Socialistisk Folkeparti    6.6    12
I    Liberal Alliance            5.4    10
K    Kristendemokraterne    0.5    0
O    Dansk Folkeparti    17.6    31
V    Venstre                    23.4    42
Ø    Enhedslisten             8.4    15
Å    Alternativet             1.8    0
        Others                       0.3   0

http://meningsmalinger.dk/

[politicus]

Question for the Danish posters:

How conservative is she really ? And is she actually running on an electable list spot

Nikita Klæstrup

She's the leader of Conservative Youth on Lolland-Falster (think of it as a left wing version of Vorpommern).

Thanks.

But is she running in the upcoming Parliamentary Election too, or is she just a local leader ?

She is Deputy Leader of Conservative Youth down there and no she is not running for anything national. Her boyfriend political consultant Rune Kristensen (32) who was Conservative Youth chairman to 2010 is their candidate in Guldborgsund, which is the wealthier (or rather less decrepit) part of the islands. He might actually have a chance and is also standing in one more constituency. So here is what you are up against:

[politicus]

Headline: "Tighter asylum rules and more requirements for immigrants". Part of a series called "Social Democrats - the Denmark you know"

In an attempt to regain enough voters from DPP to remain in office the Danish SDs are now trying to be tougher than the Liberals on immigration/refugees. And - more remarkably - the Social Liberals (once the most "soft" and humanitarian party) are silently accepting it.

SD intends to make a historic tightening of the already tight asylum regulations, which the government took over after VKO era and underlines it is "the first time in 12 years that it happens."

The Social Democrats began to move to the right on immigration matters long before Helle Thorning-Schmidt became chairman, but the shift to the right has accelerated dramatically under her leadership.

Since 2011 the government has however, often on behest of the Social Liberals, implemented a number of concessions on immigration matters such as removal of the ultra low so-called starting aid and abolition of fees for family reunification. But apparently HTS has twisted the arms of the Social Liberal leadership and are going rightwards.

In response to the flood of refugees from Syria, the government has proposed a tightening of asylum rules so people who have fled the civil war "or similar situations" only gets one-year temporary residence, before their case will be reviewed. This tightening is combined with a change of the rules on family reunification, which means that asylum seekers can not get their spouse and children to the country within the first year. Especially this part of the package is controversial. There is obviously a risk that family members of asylum seekers who have been granted residence in Denmark, sits back in, for example, Syria and facing attack or losing their lives, within this year, which they in turn can not be allowed to come to Denmark. The Institute for Human Rights has in unusually clear terms stated that Denmark risk a judgment by the European Court of Human Rights for violation of the European Convention on Human Rights - which is consistent with the assessment from several independent university experts.

Against this the non-DPP opposition parties have proposed softening the government propossal by mposing an exception for 'any person who has an exceptional need for protection in the form of quick family reunification'. Particularly noteworthy is the fact that this majority besides the left wing consists of Liberals, Conservatives and Liberal Alliance. So the three bourgeois parties are softer on immigration than the government! (at least on this issue).

This is the first tightening of asylum Danish rules that have not been tightened since 2002, despite constant pressure from DPP on the Liberal-Conservative government. It was always a priority for the Lberals and Conservatives that Danish refugee policy, while tough, remained within the international conventions, but it looks like HTS is willing to take a chance on that.

Such a response to the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria would have been utterly unheard of for the Social Democrats just a few years ago, and Radikale would never have gone along with it.

Reactions:

The Red Greens and Secretary General of the Red Cross Anders Ladekarl criticizes the Social Democrats for abandoning the historically high number of refugees in the world

Normally super humanitarian and refugee friendly Radikale and SPP are conspicuously silent, but SPP did support the softer rules for reunification.

The bourgeois parties accuse Helle Thorning-Schmidt of trying to make a lax immigration policy look like the contrary.

Danish People's Party's immigration spokesman Martin Henriksen told conservative daily Berlingske that he first thought that the campaign was 'good humor', but then figured it was a bit much because the government has pursued a "lax" immigration policy so far.

The Social Democrats have responded that they really stand for a tight and firm immigration policy, and it has developed into a veritable battle of who can rightly be said to be the "tough dogs", as we say in Danish, on immigration matters.

[politicus]

While it is a very small sample and perhaps unreliable the Christian Democrats numbers are interesting:

Red Greens, SD and Social Liberals 0% (damn atheists!)
SPP (= the vicar party) 24% (environmentalism, humanitarian refugee policy, folk high school vibe)
Conservatives 7% (cultural values)
Liberals 27% (rural and small town Jutlanders)
DPP 27% (traditionalism, no to government interference in church matters + a dash of homophobia)
Liberal Alliance 0% (vulgar materialists!)
The Alternative 0% (new age vibe)
Dunno 14% (nobody else really loves Jesus)

[politicus]

The Alternative wants a 30 hour work week without wage compensation and implemented over 10 years. They claim it will prevent stress and unemployment + lead to a less consumerist lifestyle for the middle class.

Polls show 50% of working Danes feel stressed and the Alternative says increased part time work is not the solution since it leads to gender inequality as women will work less than men due to traditional gender roles.

A hard sell  - especially to people with low incomes - but this is at least something different than the usual leftist "less work, same pay" nonsense.

They need some proposals on cheaper housing - especially in the cities - to make this appealing.

[politicus]

YouGov poll from 23/3 has the Alternative above the threshold (second one to show that) and DPP as the biggest party - contrary to recent trend. Might be an outlier.

Red Bloc 78/Blue Bloc 97:

A    Socialdemokraterne    19.8    35
B    Radikale Venstre    6.7    12
C    Konservative Folkeparti    5.0    9
F    Socialistisk Folkeparti    5.4    10
I    Liberal Alliance    6.5    11
K    Kristendemokraterne    0.8    0
O    Dansk Folkeparti    22.4    39
V    Venstre    21.5    38
Ø    Enhedslisten    9.5    17
Å    Alternativet    2.5    4

[politicus]

Looks like the YouGov was an outlier. DPP back substantially below the two big ones in the last two polls. The Alternative just below the threshold in both:

Megafon 25/3

A    Socialdemokraterne    22.6    
B    Radikale Venstre    7.9    
C    Konservative Folkeparti    4.4    
F    Socialistisk Folkeparti    5.4    
I    Liberal Alliance    5.3    
K    Kristendemokraterne    0.9    
O    Dansk Folkeparti    19.1    
V    Venstre    24.2    
Ø    Enhedslisten    7.9    
Å    Alternativet    1.8
-    Others    0.5        

 
Epinion  23/3

A    Socialdemokraterne    23.9    43
B    Radikale Venstre    6.7    12
C    Konservative Folkeparti    5.0    9
F    Socialistisk Folkeparti    6.8    12
I    Liberal Alliance    5.5    10
K    KD                   0.5    0
O    Dansk Folkeparti    18.7    33
V    Venstre           22.3    40
Ø    Enhedslisten    8.7    16
Å    Alternativet    1.8    0
-    Others    0.1    0

[politicus]

Contrary to the polls prior to the launch of the immigration campaign a new Green poll has Red Bloc above 48%, best in a long time.

Red Bloc 48,2%
Blue Bloc 51,7%

SD up from 20,9 to 24,4% in a month and they do seem to take some votes from DPP that is on 17,2, down from 21,7% a month ago (hard to tell when the Liberals advance as well, but it seems like it).

Liberals on 23,3, up from 21,4. Social Liberals at a mere 5,9, down from 7,9.

The Alternative on 2,6%.

Two or three more polls on this level and HTS will likely call the election.

[politicus]

Some political journos with good SD sources claim that 47% is the breaking point decided by the leadership, so a string of 47%+ polls should mean the election is on.

Historically SD always calcualted with the ability to gain minimum 2% in a campaign, but that was with much better relations to the trade unions than currently. But this time they may accept a lower starting point to avoid having to campaign in a worse scenario.

Still, any poll with Red Bloc above 47% is interesting.