Faroe Islands Parliamentary Election - September 1, 2015

[politicus]

But they have other foreigners, I assume.

Not even the CP can be considered something similar to DF.

CP are SoCons, which DPP only plays lip service to once in while (they were against gay marriage, though). Their core electorate is totally different from DPPs. PP is much more likely to refuse refugees than CP (because of Christian ethics).

The Faroes do not really have minorities of any size. 97% are ethnically Faroese and almost half of the rest are Danes.

Wiki has the following numbers for people aged 15+ in 2011 and says there were 77 nationalities. "Big" groups in brackets.

Danes 515
Other European countries 433 (Norwegians, Icelanders, Poles)
Asians 147 (Filipinos)
Africans 65 (various refugees)
America 55 (US, Canada)
Russia 23

But basically Islamophobia is the bread and butter of contemporary right wing populism in Western Europe. No Muslims, no right wing populism. Neighbouring Iceland has 8% foreigners, but hardly any Muslims among them,  and their right wing populists poll at 2% combined.

[politicus]

An exception is Spain, we have muslims but not right wing populism against them (apart from random picturesque cases like two or three local mayors, but nothing in parliament)

The "no Muslims, no right wing populism" rule doesn't necessarily work in reverse.

In the end, KLJ was ok with refugees

Yeah KLJ was always okay with refugees and wanted to do more, but he is a Liberal. Not a right winger.

(not sure why you brought him up?)

[politicus]

Because i think u mentioned his approsch to host refugees was quite criticized

Yeah, mostly for practical reasons, but no doubt (parts of) PP used those as a smoke screen. But I think the Faroese SDs were genuine in their capacity/facility/knowledge based critique.

[politicus]

We have our first defector!

Annika Olsen from PP, who got the second most votes, has decided to leave the party. She is from Torshavn and basically says there are too many SoCons/Hard Right in the new group. That "despite her good personal election the leaderships policy won the election and Liberal values lost out." Also claims she still believes in the party platform (which says PP is a Liberal, democratic and social party..).

So Annika O. got tired of the right wing hicks... Wonder if she will join Progress? She might even be pro-gay marriage, she is definitely the most likely to be among the PP MPs.

She tried unsuccessfully to get a leadership election and take over in 2011, when she got 3 times as many votes as the party leader Jørgen Niclasen and became #1, but has apparently definitively given up.

PP had 9 seats a month ago, now they have 5. Ouch.

[politicus]

Olsen was Deputy PM and Minister of Social Services in KLJs government and she lost around a third of her vote from 2011 this time. She was also Minister of Internal Affairs 2008-11 and had some big fights with Republic back then.

In all fairness she is not merely crossed about SoCon influence and pro-established businesses bias, but also wants a municipal reform reducing the municipalities from 30 to 8 and a police reform going from 6 to 3 districts. All this would make it a lot easier to finance independence - and from her POV the settlement people resisting this undermines the partys separatist agenda.

Also in favor of a 4% threshold (something Home Rule obviously hates).

[politicus]

Negotiations are now just between Republic, SD and Progress. Party leaders meet today with their groups to consult and inform and will afterwards have what is considered final talks. Faroese media expects the government to be announced tomorrow.

No news on why Home Rule is out. It drowned in all the refugee stories. Likely fishing quotas, though.

Poul Michelsen says Annika Olsen is welcome in Progress, and Faroese journos seems to take it for granted she will jump since she mentioned "Liberal values" (basically an announcement), but she will not get into the government since she would then have to give up her seat to her PP substitute and that would cost Progress (and the coalition) a much needed "safety seat".

So 18-15 most likely. The recount did not move the second Home Rule seat. Home Rule gained 1, Progress 2 and SD 19. If Progress had gained just 10 or SD 30 on Home Rule they could have gotten it. So really close. 9 more to Progress or 12 to SD would have secured the coalition an extra seat.

Republic Youth urges their mother party to secure the Faroes takes boat refugees.

[politicus]

Overview of the 13 party jumpers in the last 19 years.
(Will translate it later, but you can get the general impression. Notice the Republic SoCon policeman Karsten Hansen, who jumped to Centre when Republic started supporting making hate speech against gays a crime.)

2015-unknown:
1. Annika Olsen – PP (to Progress?)
 
2011-15:
2. Gerhard Lognberg – SD to Union. Not reelected.
3. Janus Rein – Progress to PP. Not reelected.
 
2008-11:
4. Poul Michelsen – PP to Progres (which he founded). Reelected.
 
2004-08:
5. Karsten Hansen – Republic to Centre. Reelected.
6. (Heðin Mortensen – Mayor of Torshavn, 1. substitute in the Løgting) - UP to SD. Elected.
 
2002-04:
7. Helena Dam á Neystabø – Home Rule to SD. Not reelected.
 
1998-02:
None
 
1994-1998:
8. Kristian Magnussen – Workers' Union to SD. Reelected.
9. Karl Robert Johansen –Workers' Union to SD. Not reelected.
10. Finnbogi Arge – UP to PP. Not reelected.
 
1990-94:
11. Lasse Klein – Home Rule to Christian People's Party. Reelected.
(went back to Home Rule after CPP was dissolved and is now their party secretary)
12. Tordur Niclasen – Christian People's Party to Centre. Reelected.

1988-90:
None
 
1984-88:
13. Adolf Hansen – Christian People's Party to the Progress Party (which the founded). Not reelected.

[politicus]

Maybe she starts a new party.

Not likely. It would basically be Progress II and the market for separatist centre-right parties is too crowded.

Henrik Old to Centre over gay marriage is the only other potential jumper I can think of. Those who lose the coming UP power struggle may go elsewhere, but I doubt it.

[politicus]

But I guess SD will not want Old out as it would be a too pro-independence coalition and SD would no longer be the majority party.

No, and he is from their "heart land" in Suduroy. If the Sudbury SoCons leave the party would be a lot weaker. Three of their eight seats this time went to Suduroy candidates.

Also, we do not yet know if Bjarni Hammer is against gay marriage (which would mean only 16 government pro-gay marriage votes), but Annika Olsen defecting clearly increase the chances (if she is pro, but hard to imagine otherwise).

[politicus]

Home Rule actually left the talks this morning. They did it over two things:

1) The others wanted gay marriage to be part of the coalition agreement, while Home Rule wanted a referendum.

2) The others wanted all fishing quotas put on auction, while Home Rule wanted settlement quotas, minimum quotas for established busineseses and several other modifications.

Annika Olsen specifically mentioned the party leadership declining MPs the right to vote their conscience on ethical matters as a major reason for the break (in addition to being the only Liberal left in the group). So she is with 100% certainty pro-gay marriage.

Former Mayor of Runavik, Rodmundur Nielsen, who was a substitute MP 2011-15, but failed to get elected, has also left PP. Interesting if more will follow (not MPs, but local politicians, ex-MPs etc.).

[politicus]

No, in all likelihood it means they have 17 seats without him (Hammer then being pro). They probably got tempted to get tough with HR when they heard Annika O. had defected.

But also two points that were hard to compromise on:

Full auction of all fishing quotas is the only way to get enough revenue to finance the current welfare state (+some long overdue upgrades and improvements for poors) without raising taxes (and even cutting some) and therefore necessary for a left/right compromise.

And Progress needs gay marriage to signal they are the primary champions of Social Liberalism and they won't risk a referendum. Which would also get very ugly and with international media highlighting the Faroes as a bigoted and backwards place filled with rapid homophobes and vitriolic fire and brimstone preachers. Not the image the leftists and SocLibs want to project.

[politicus]

Now it is a matter of when.

It may take ages like in Greenland or be faster.

No, Greenland was because of bureaucratic inefficiency and slip-ups. This is different. They are ideologically motivated to do it (and especially Progress wants it done fast) and their administration is efficient.

Btw Annika O. said she had not yet decided which party to join, but expect to do so soon. So not going to be an Indie. Hard to see her going anywhere else than Progress.

[politicus]

Even if they want it fast, family law is competence of Denmark.

Even if the Faroese administration is efficient, the implementation has to be done from Denmark as far as I know.

It was not only the Greenlandic administration, but also the Danish one, which has its times.

No, not really. They are implementing the Danish law and can just copy most of the necessary adjustments. The relevant current Danish laws simply have an exception for the Faroes, which can just be removed by the Faroese joining in.

It was things like the Greenlandic translation of documents not being done in time and an election being called before they could get it on the agenda etc. that delayed it in Greenland. DK had nothing to do with it.

[politicus]

On the fishing cuotas...I still do not understand how two left and a right wing party can match beyond that. Maybe if they agree on what to do with it right now, they will disagree on broader economic issues after that.

In a fishing nation this is the central issue. The left being in favour of the free market on quotas makes them the only allies for Progress on this. Progress know they only have a few seats. They are willing to pay a prize to get this reform, since it is a necessary first step in the transformation of Faroese economy they want. If they agree on taxes and fishing quotas, welfare and liberalizing farming legislation that is the central elements. Monetary policy and currency matters are controlled by Denmark (and the market of course), so there aren't that many economic issues besides fiscal policy to disagree on.

The key is that in a natural resources based economy you can finance the public sector without having high taxes if you sell the right to use those resources for a good enough prize. That changes the standard left/right divide quite a bit.

[politicus]

That is only if it does not affect other laws, so that they can just prepare a decree, I assume.

Why do you say Denmark has nothing to do with it if it is its competence?

Those other laws are broadly similar to Denmark's.

I said that Denmark had nothing to do with the delay of the Greenlandic gay marriage because it hadn't. All the clusterf#cks and slip-ups happened in Greenland. I love Greenlanders, but they are not great organizers or known for the efficiency of their bureaucrats.

Also, Greenland decided on gay marriage ultimo May and implements it from October 1. That is a mere 4 months and that even includes the summer holidays (so really three effective months). Wouldn't be surprised if the Faroes try to get it done before Christmas (December1.?), or at least from New Years.

[politicus]

They discussed it in the faroes before, the tempos will be similar i suppose

Not likely. This is a whole new situation with the government behind it. The earlier proposal was a members bill.

Remember there is great symbolic value in this.

[politicus]

Faroese media speculate about something I also thought about. Poul Michelsen is 71 and there are no obvious successors in Progress, and since Annika Olsen is one of the most popular politicians in Torshavn (where their potential is greatest) and an excellent communicator she would be an obvious choice for successor. So if she joins Olsen could take over in a year or two, while Michelsen concentrates on running a ministry. They got along well together when Michelsen was in Progress.

If she can get the Liberal part of PP from the central islands to vote Progress, Progress might eventually overtake PP. Their problem is this might be a two wave exodus. First the Libertarians left in 2011 and if the Torshavn (Havnar) and Stremoy Liberals join them now PP could lose its position as one of the "Big 4" in Faroese politics - which would further diminish their appeal. They would be left with shrinking demographics, whereas Progress would have the young/youngish urban/exurban (#) and well-educated segments.

#In the Faroes this includes big settlements within easy driving distance from Torshavn. The central part of the country is getting highly integrated with all those tunnels the have build.


The next chairman of Progress?

[politicus]

So one would expect an announcement tomorrow on a time schedule?

They may want to consult with the administration first.

[politicus]

The reason why I said March is because when Helle Thorning took power, the caolition was also determined to pass same-sex marriage, but it took about six months.

Maybe it is faster now, lets see.

Not comparable scenarios. Denmark started out with a lot of work to do (even if there were some overlaps with countries that had done it before, there were lots of details that differed), while the Faroes can copy almost all of the legislation they need from Denmark - since their systems are nearly identical.

[politicus]

Annika seems quite young, thought she was older, I dont know why.

She is 40 - not sure how old the pic is.

[politicus]

Annika Olsen from PP, who got the second most votes, has decided to leave the party. She is from Torshavn and basically says there are too many SoCons/Hard Right in the new group. That "despite her good personal election the leaderships policy won the election and Liberal values lost out." Also claims she still believes in the party platform (which says PP is a Liberal, democratic and social party..).

She probably didn't know this two weeks ago

How could she? She did not know the internal election result back then.

She was hoping her wing of the party got a much better election than they did. There were 9 members in the old parliamentary group - incl. a defector from Progress - and a third of them were Liberals. If the other two had been reelected it would have been 3/3. But Conservatives got 5 of 6 seats in the election, so she was then left as the lone Liberal with no chance of getting control of the party.

Remember she tried to get the executive committee to organize a leadership election in 2011, so she could challenge Jørgen Niclasen. Her dissatisfaction with the leadership is not a new thing.

[politicus]

Isn't Greenlandic law also alike?

Yes, but see my post above about the efficiency of Greenlandic bureaucrats.

There are major cultural and mentality differences between Greenlanders and Faroese.

[politicus]

Not even in the faroes laws are passed overnight

No one said they were. Irrelevant comment.

The point is 2 to 2 1/2 months should be enough and there is a symbolic gesture in giving the gay community a Christmas present, so they may try to do that. Or go for the standard January 1.

[politicus]

Looking at the internal votes in PP we can see that Annika Olsens two allies Rodmundur Nielsen and Progress defector Janus Rein were far from making the cut, while she lost more than the party at large (about half the party loss was the decline in her personal votes). While Niclasen was the big winner. Unlike last time when she got more than 3 times as many votes as Niclasen he was "only" 262 votes behind this time and a clear #3 (while 4th in 2011). So a very clear Liberal defeat.

1.   Jacob Vestergaard 966 (-82)
2.   Annika Olsen   961 (-383)
3.   Jørgen Niclasen   699 (+317)
4.   Jákup Mikkelsen   380 (-75)
5.   Elsebeth Mercedis Gunnleygsdóttir 371
6.   Jógvan á Lakjuni   365
-----------------------------------------
8.   Janus Rein   273 (other party)
10. Rodmundur Nielsen 197 (-81)

Total 6 102 (-781)

She still got nearly a sixth of PPs votes and 3% of the national vote of 32,374, so she took her seat on personal votes, and even if the party label played a role voters knew she was in opposition to the leadership and might defect if she lost the power struggle, so I think it was a justifiable move from a democratic POV given Faroese political culture.

[politicus]

UP will select their new chairman on a party conference on October 24 with local chapter representatives, the executive board and MPs voting on it. So far only Bardur Nielsen is running.

Only news from the coalition talks is that the Ministry of the Interior (which was scrapped in 2013 after Kari Høygaaard from HR left the government), will be reestablished.