South Africa 2014

[politicus]

I didn't know that was your blog, Hash. It is a most Excellent resource.

'

This. Its always been one of my favourite blogs.

This should have been a give away:

"The editor
 
I am a dual French and Canadian citizen living in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. I am a student of political science at the University of Ottawa (Canada)".

[politicus]

I don't really follow South African politics as closely as I should, so a question: Why do people dislike the modern ANC?

They are corrupt, elitist and unable to solve the poverty problems and the breakdown of law and order + they have given up on any serious redistribution of wealth, except to their own pockets.

[politicus]

the breakdown of law and order

This is demonstrably false and you lose all credibility when you say stuff like this. Please check the facts before recycling myths.


(full disclosure: the ratio increased to 31.1 in 2012/2013)

This isn't to deny that SA has no crime issue (obviously) but rather to temper some of the lies and myths being spread out there, which has no basis in actual statistics. There's little doubt that the SAPS figures are not entirely accurate, but obviously claiming that their figures are fabricated is silly conspiracy theory stuff with no grounding in reality.

Whether or not voters feel there is a breakdown in law and order is not something you can debate based on crime statistics.

SA is a country with an extreme crime problem, whether homicide rates have gone up or down is neither here nor there in this context.

We are talking about a country where one in four women and teenage girls have been raped and where the wast majority of those crimes go unreported = not a safe country or a place where the rule of law prevails.

Regarding facts. According to AfricaCheck:

The facts about the increases in interpersonal violence are as follows:
 •Incidents of murder increased from 15 609 murders in 2011/12 to 16 259 murders in 2012/13.
 This means that there was an increase of 650 murder cases or a 4,2% increase when comparing the total numbers of murders withthe previous year.
 •This works out to almost two additional murders per day on average during the 2012/13 financial year.
 •Consequently, our murder rate increased from a total average of 43 murders per day to 45 murders per day.
 •Using the correct census data for 2011, the murder rate in 2011/12 was 30.3 per 100,000 population and not 30,9 as reported by SAPS in the last reporting period.
 •The murder rate for 2012/13 stood at 31.3 per 100,000 population which reflects an increase of 2.8% in the rate of murders (not 0.6% as presented officially).
 •South Africa’s murder rate is therefore about four and a half times higher than the global average of 6.9 murders per 100 000.
 •Attempted murder cases increased from 14 859 to 16 363, an increase of 10.1%
 •Attempted murder rates increased by 8,7% in the past year.
 •Sexual offence cases increased from 64 514 to 66 387, an increase of 2.9%.
 •Sexual offence rates increased from 125,1 per 100000 to 127,0 per 100000 population an increase of 1.5%.

Of course its subjective whether this constitutes a breakdown in law and order, but its high enough for a large number of voters to feel they are not safe and that "the police is doing nothing" which is a factor in the distrust and unpopularity of the governing party.

Also Hash; stuff like "you lose all credibility" is why I didn't like the idea of you as a mod. Now that they made you one: Tone it down a notch and be less aggressive.

[politicus]

Interesting chart, PASOK. It seems as if the crime rate peaked in the 1990s and that it was that period that gave SA a bad name crime wise, a reputation that still sticks. Though of course the murder rate is still high today, but the reduction is noteworthy.

Homicide is the most reliable type of crime to compare between countries, because it is almost always reported. But a lower homicide rate is not in itself evidence of a lower crime rate. Not all types of crime follow homicide.


SA ranked 2nd behind Venezuela when it comes to fear of "walking alone at night" in an international Gallup poll. So it is a major concern to people.

http://www.iol.co.za/news/crime-courts/south-africans-live-in-perpetual-fear-1.1581044

To Hash: The breakdown of law and order in SAs townships happened gradually from the 80s and onwards (all though the situation obviously wasn't rosy before then either) and spread to the rest of the country in the 90s. Once a breakdown in law and order has happened the result is that law and order has broken down and there is a breakdown (I will accept a correction of this logic by an English speaker, but not by a frog like you ).