French legislative by-elections (14th Legislature)

[politicus]

Genuine good news for PS or a mere fluke?

Probably a mix of the constituency being generally poor ground for the UMP to begin with, the possibility of a mini-upswing in the PS' fortunes post-Charlie Hebdo and (this is probably the bigger factor) the UMP's candidate getting a bad case of foot-in-mouth disease. When asked about the FN's usual racist and Islamophobic campaign stuff, he said that he didn't have a problem with immigrants but that "Ce sont les bons petits blonds qui m’emmerdent" ('good little blonds are the ones who piss me off'), which is obviously not the smartest thing to say when you're a politician in France.

wtf...

What did that refer to?

[politicus]

the PS, as the Grejoy, never die.

Suffering the same fate as *that one* Greyjoy is far worse than dying though.

What is this a reference to?

[politicus]

But it is clear that, everywhere in Europe, time of classical social-democracy are over (the most evident proof of it is the rise of D66 and decline of dutch social-democratic party). Left, in the future, will be divided into podemos-left front- syriza likes, and social-liberal on the other side.

Classic liberalism and classic social-democracy are dying.

There is a third option of left wing populism - sometimes combined with/attached to nationalism as in Sinn Fein and SNP. This option will likely prevail in Eastern Europe.

If you only got Social Liberals and "movement leftism" (dunno if there is a proper term for it) you more or less abandon the working class/poor to right wing populists.

Also, classical SD parties will survive in one form or another in the Social Democratic core areas for a long time. The death of Labour or SDA are not around the corner.

Where does Green parties fit into your prognosis?