How would Canadian Provinces vote in McCain vs Obama?

[Hatman 🍁]

I think a poll between the 3 candidates had McCain in single digits, so Obama would probably sweep the country with 80-90% of the vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think a poll between the 3 candidates had McCain in single digits, so Obama would probably sweep the country with 80-90% of the vote.

Even in Alberta? Wow.

Alberta may be Conservative, but it's not Republican Bush actually was most popular in Atlantic Canada. Go figure.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think a poll between the 3 candidates had McCain in single digits, so Obama would probably sweep the country with 80-90% of the vote.

Even in Alberta? Wow.

Alberta may be Conservative, but it's not Republican Bush actually was most popular in Atlantic Canada. Go figure.

I have a feeling it would be Republican if it were in the US though.

Also, if Bush was at 20% with another 20% undecided in 2004, that would mean McCain would have a floor of about 30% in Canada.

Probably. I suppose, when given three choices, Canadians prefer one of the Democrats over McCain by a 90-10 ratio, but in a head to head race, McCain would do much better.

And there's no question Alberta would vote Republican if it had a long history of being in the US. It's a lot like Montana, except with large cities.

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean McCain

How is Saskatchewan so different from Alberta and Manitoba? 

It's actually similar to Manitoba. Regina is like a mini-Winnipeg. Don't forget, SK elected the first socialist government in North America under the great Tommy Douglas

[Hatman 🍁]

No, cities in Canada are more left wing than rural areas, it's just like the US. Regina and Saskatoon both vote NDP while the rural areas vote for the right wing Saskatchewan Party. It's a bit more complicated on the federal level though, with 3 parties and gerrymandering.

[Hatman 🍁]

How would they vote in the Hillary/Obama primary?

BC, Alberta, Ontario: Obama
everything else: Clinton

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean McCain

How is Saskatchewan so different from Alberta and Manitoba? 

It's actually similar to Manitoba. Regina is like a mini-Winnipeg. Don't forget, SK elected the first socialist government in North America under the great Tommy Douglas

You are being intellectually dishonest with that one. The CCF's [Cooperative Commonwealth Federation for the uninitiated] base was in the rural areas, as was true of all of the other, earlier leftist movements (United Farmers, Progressives). It wasn't until the 1980s that the NDP's base in Saskatchewan became the cities.

In the end, McCain has no chance in Canada. He wins Alberta, maybe Saskatchewan and probably PEI, N&L and New Brunswick (those are something of a guess). Obama wins the rest, except possibly losing Manitoba. But only Ontario and Quebec would matter, and they'd probably vote for a rock before McCain.

The CCF did well in the cities, too Verily, but that's besides the point. I never said they didn't do well in the rural areas.

And there's no way in hell McCain would win any province. The media here has pretty much ignored the Republican campaign.

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta: Strong McCain (Alberta is like the Texas of Canada or even more conservative)
Saskatchewan: Lean Obama
Manitoba: Tossup/Lean McCain

How is Saskatchewan so different from Alberta and Manitoba? 

It's actually similar to Manitoba. Regina is like a mini-Winnipeg. Don't forget, SK elected the first socialist government in North America under the great Tommy Douglas

You are being intellectually dishonest with that one. The CCF's [Cooperative Commonwealth Federation for the uninitiated] base was in the rural areas, as was true of all of the other, earlier leftist movements (United Farmers, Progressives). It wasn't until the 1980s that the NDP's base in Saskatchewan became the cities.

In the end, McCain has no chance in Canada. He wins Alberta, maybe Saskatchewan and probably PEI, N&L and New Brunswick (those are something of a guess). Obama wins the rest, except possibly losing Manitoba. But only Ontario and Quebec would matter, and they'd probably vote for a rock before McCain.

The CCF did well in the cities, too Verily, but that's besides the point. I never said they didn't do well in the rural areas.

And there's no way in hell McCain would win any province. The media here has pretty much ignored the Republican campaign.

I think he'd at least win Alberta.

no! Why do people keep thinking this? Alberta is much more aligned with the Democrats than the Republicans, in fact it fits in with the Dems more than any other province (all other provinces being much to the left of the Dems)

[Hatman 🍁]

Senate + House Seats?

NL: 13
PE: 8
NS: 21
NB: 20
QC: 99
ON: 130
MB: 20
SK: 20
AB: 34
BC: 42
YT: 2
NT: 2
NU: 2

(2006 results)
Liberals: 196
Conservatives: 116
Bloc Quebecois: 99
NDP: 2

LOL! Well, it would go to the House to decide!

[Hatman 🍁]

Perhaps, although I think people would be more willing to vote for the NDP, considering the personal popularity of Layton is quite high compared to that of Harper and Dion (when compared to what their parties are polling at).  It's quite frequent of NDP leaders actually. I'm quite confident, if the 1988 election were a presidential race, Ed Broadbent would have won.

[Hatman 🍁]

Canada would have to have runoff style elections. First Past the Post would disenfranchise most left-wing voters.

And it doesn't now? Let's remember though, the Liberals aren't left wing, and neither is the Green Party

[Hatman 🍁]

Canada would have to have runoff style elections. First Past the Post would disenfranchise most left-wing voters.

There's a theory that first past the post inevitably leads to a 2 party system, so I suspect some of the left/leftish/center-left parties (ie the Liberals, NDP, some of the greens, and a few members of the BQ) might merge.

The opposite has happened in Canada. It used to be a 2 party system, and it has diverged from it. I think in general you're right, but Canada is a very complicated country politically.