Canadian by-elections

[Hatman 🍁]

I've heard that there are very few Liberal signs up while Mulcair has quite a few.

Sign wars tend to be completely meaningless as a way of reading how a given seat is going to go.

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I would like to believe that. But it could just mean that the Liberals, dominant in the area since the '30's IIRC (or before then maybe?), don't see the need to advertise their existence in the way that the NDP does.

Well, if the Liberals were as desperate to keep this seat as everyone says they are, you think they'd put up more signs. And, I know they're pretty meaningless in terms of actual votes, but they probably do say something about organization.

[Hatman 🍁]

I doubt they could find many places to put up more! I'm in a cafe in Outremont right now; having completed a survey of a few neighbourhoods I counted 25 posters for the Tories, 35 for the Bloc, 38 for the Liberals and 71 for the NDP, albeit the NDP's signs are the 6X12" variety whereas the other parties use the larger traditional signs (24X30" I believe).

I did notice that well over half of the NDP's signs are concentrated in the Plateau area of Outremont, dotting almost every side street. The other parties' posters tend to be on major thoroughfares and more evenly distributed between the Plateau, Mile End, Queen Mary, Villray, and Snowdon.

I have no idea if this means anything, but it's kind of interesting to observe. I guess this is what ornithologists do . . . but, you know, not as cool.

What about signs on private property?

[Hatman 🍁]

That small sample won't give accurate results though.

No kidding. Where was this informal survey taken?

I wonder why Mulcair's signs are getting defaced.

[Hatman 🍁]

It'd be nice to see some actual polls. I know they did one in Outremont for the 2006 election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, that was a general election after all.

I wouldn't be surprised if they did some polling closer to the election date. That in and of itself could be quite interesting. If it shows one party doing well, it may give it momentum. Whether it's the NDP or the Liberals it could upset things in a jiffy.

Of course, there's probably internal polling. Unfortunately, I don't have any internal polling sources like I once had. 

[Hatman 🍁]

. . . the frightening comment about Canadian democracy that is aside, I guess you're right.

Getting past the survey and back to the election now, I have a question for anyone fluent in french here. I've been scanning the Quebec french media for weeks looking for information and so far I've come up short. Opinion articles occasionally make reference to the by-elections, but only obliquely and in reference to another point. They haven't seemed to pick up on Mulclair's status (whether as an interloper, a shining star, a turncoat, a saviour, or whatever) or about the fortunes of the Liberal party, both of which have been delved into deeply by the ROC media.

Is there any explanation for this? Are there articles I've missed?

I know there's been plenty in the English media, from what I've read.

[Hatman 🍁]

There are now 12 candidates in the field, including 5 independents (one of them being John Turmel ). In addition to the five major parties, the Canadian Action Party is running as is the newly registered "neorhino.ca".

[Hatman 🍁]

Probably Hamilton East in 1996. There were 12 candidates:

COPPS, Sheila    Lib         12,268     
MARSTON, Wayne    N.D.P.    retired Bell technician     6,941     
TOMASIC, Angie    P.C.    bank manager     3,662     
SWECK, Andy    Ref.    supervisor     2,750     
CAMPBELL, Ken    Ind.    clergyman     287     
AMBAS, George    Ind.    retail business     160     
PRIESNITZ, Wendy    G.P.    publisher     152     
MALCOLM, Glenn    Ind.    consultant     113     
EMMANUEL, Tristan Alexander    C.H.P.    trucking     78     
KNIGHT, Victor    Ind.    teacher     70     
AMOS, Bill    N.L.P.    business consultant     64     
OLITO, Charles    C.P.    retired     52     

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, there were 13 candidates. For some reason, the parliament website ommitted John C. Turmel's vote total; he received 21 votes.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've heard the argument before that parties in safe seats suddenly presented by strong challenges are often not up to the task simply because they've never had to fight a serious election before.

There's certainly some truth to that. I think much depends on why the dominant party is/was as strong in the area as it is/was; machine seats are much less likely to fall than seats won almost by default.

Yes, I definitely live in a machine seat, which goes by the name "McGuinty".

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa-Vanier seems to me as a seat not really worth campaigning for, although Liberal vote here has declined since the 80s, where the LPC won with 50%+ most of the time, now with only pluralities.

Ottawa-Vanier is certainly trending NDP thanks very much to Rick Dagenais. It's also home to one of the most left wing neighbourhoods in the city, Sandy Hill.  Alex Munter's vote there is proof of that.

[Hatman 🍁]

From another forum,

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[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP vote would have to be doing better than it did in the 90s; the NDP was very nearly wiped out in 1993 and 2000.

Trends as small as the ones in Ottawa-Vanier can be ascribed to personality and local popularity. It doesn't show an aggregate shift.

Rick Dagenais = the NDP in Ottawa Vanier. When I say the riding is trending NDP, I never said I didn't mean trending towards Dagenais.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder where the NDP vote comes from in Vanier.

What, the riding? I told you, Sandy Hill. Plus, there's some support in Lower Town and Lindenlea. There's little support in Vanier itself though.

[Hatman 🍁]

I noticed the area where Montreal Rd. becomes Rideau after the bridge is quite poor and lots of immigrants there- is that Sandy Hills there?

Sort of. Rideau Street is the border between Sandy Hill (no S) and Lower Town. Sandy Hill is towards the south, and has many university students/university graduates. Lower Town, which is north of Rideau Street has always been a traditionally lower class neighbourhood. While it may be lower class, Lower Town has a lot of character and is home to most of Ottawa's night life (the famous ByWard market is in Lower Town).

[Hatman 🍁]

Blackburn Hamlet is in Ottawa-Orleans. That bulge is Pine View.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some other corrections:

Ottawa-Vanier's not really that big. It only has 100,000 people, which is small for an urban riding, and its population is declining.

Also, Rockcliffe Park is very Conservative. Just check the results! Also, another heavily Conservative area is Beacon Hill in Gloucester.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some other corrections:

Ottawa-Vanier's not really that big. It only has 100,000 people, which is small for an urban riding, and its population is declining.

Also, Rockcliffe Park is very Conservative. Just check the results! Also, another heavily Conservative area is Beacon Hill in Gloucester.

Beacon Hill is heavily Conservative, that's where my school is. Judging by the houses there, it can be explained. Am I right?

Well, yeah. It is very suburban. Can't say I know what you're talking about though, since I don't know why I would want to go to Beacon Hill!

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting poll. Jack Layton is the 9th most popular politician in Quebec while Mulcair is 11th. Meanwhile Dion 22nd and Harper 13th.

http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=1be79ebd-296d-4e40-938e-8f79dfdf2edb
 

[Hatman 🍁]

The Conservative candidate

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[Hatman 🍁]

OMG POLLZ!

Outremont:
NDP: 38
LPC: 32
BQ: 14
Verts: 8
CPC: 7
Oth: 1


Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean:
CPC: 43
BQ: 37
LPC: 12
NDP: 4
Verts: 4


St-Hyacinthe-Bagot:
BQ: 49
CPC: 32
NDP: 7
Verts: 6
LPC: 5

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/20070914/CPSOLEIL/70913236/6584/CPSOLEIL

[Hatman 🍁]

Too bad about Roberval, but polls of individual ridings are notoriously poor.

1000 sample size is pretty good, I would say. I am happy about Roberval, personally. I would rather a Con than a separatist.  Don't want to be too hard on the separatists though, they are why we are winning in Outremont!

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm disappointed in seeing the NDP behind in Roberval, but looks like we're driving them into irrelevance as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, being reasonable, what do we think would be the consequence of an NDP breakthrough in Montreal? Clearly most of Quebec, Montreal especially, is left-leaning and might be inclined to support the NDP. Could we see many of the Montreal ridings where the Liberals normally win 60-80% of the vote suddenly become Liberal-NDP battlegrounds once the NDP can present itself as a viable alternative in Quebec?

Most of the support the NDP will be getting in Outremont is actually coming from the Bloc. The Liberals are polling at the same numbers they were last time. If the Bloc evaporates in Quebec, one might assume that the NDP could pick up ridings like Laurier. However, to be honest Outremont is the only riding in Quebec the NDP could or can win in Quebec. Their second best chance isn't even in the Montreal area- it's Hull-Aylmer. I expect a lot of second place finishes, many of them distant, but a close race in Hull where Pierre Ducasse is running (the NDP's Quebec lieutennant before Mulcair)

[Hatman 🍁]

So, being reasonable, what do we think would be the consequence of an NDP breakthrough in Montreal?

Who knows? If it happens (and, while I'd love it to, I still can't quite... you know...) then the precedents don't really point in any direction; while the last NDP breakthrough into Quebec came to nothing (less than nothing really), the seperatist breakthrough into federal politics was heralded by Duceppe's by-election victory (as an Independent o/c) later in the year (or was it early in the next year? Can't quite remember).
It really depends whether or not an NDP win in Outremont would be reflective of a wider swing in Quebec, or the result of local factors.

Btw, if the Liberals do manage to lose Outremont, how long will Dion have left?

Dion will hold on to the next election, and if he doesn't win, he's toast. Although, rumours have it that digruntled Ignatieffites are trying to sabotage the campaign in Outremont.