🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[Hatman 🍁]

The Milton and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex provincial by-elections have been called for May 2.

Interestingly, Crombie is not running in Milton. I guess she doesn't think she could win it?

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout was 56%, a 15 point increase from 2021(!) Only in Newfoundland...

Average swing was 21 points (Lib to PC)

Elections NL is now publishing poll by poll results on election night (though, they're keeping it rather hidden), joining the ranks of Alberta and PEI: https://www.voterview.ca/mvvframes/(S(zqsn1mbbebrgvdoy2qz2rnkl))/unofficialpollresultsfordistrict.aspx?cm=8500&ward=13

Looks like the Liberals won the eastern part of the District (Cape Freels down to Trinity), while the Tories won everything else. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout was 56%, a 15 point increase from 2021(!) Only in Newfoundland...

Average swing was 21 points (Lib to PC)

Elections NL is now publishing poll by poll results on election night (though, they're keeping it rather hidden), joining the ranks of Alberta and PEI: https://www.voterview.ca/mvvframes/(S(zqsn1mbbebrgvdoy2qz2rnkl))/unofficialpollresultsfordistrict.aspx?cm=8500&ward=13

Looks like the Liberals won the eastern part of the District (Cape Freels down to Trinity), while the Tories won everything else. 

This last election in Newfoundland and Labrador was the Covid election when things were shut down suddenly and the election day was postponed. Then, if I recall correctly, people had a short time to request a ballot to vote and there were also problems with what to do to request a ballot.

So, the 2021 election was very low turnout if not record low turnout in Newfoundland and Labrador.

This is true, but 56% is still a good turnout result.

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW there have been two recent byelections in Newfoundland - one where a seemingly safe Tory seat went Liberal and another where a seemingly safe Liberal seat went Tory - go figure

It's proof that strength of candidacy still matters in Atlantic Canada. This was probably more of a generic ballot type race as opposed to the Liberal pick up in Conception Bay where they ran a star candidate. 

[Hatman 🍁]

FWIW there have been two recent byelections in Newfoundland - one where a seemingly safe Tory seat went Liberal and another where a seemingly safe Liberal seat went Tory - go figure

It's proof that strength of candidacy still matters in Atlantic Canada. This was probably more of a generic ballot type race as opposed to the Liberal pick up in Conception Bay where they ran a star candidate. 

I think this only applies on islands in Atlantic Canada.

Heh. Except, it's probably the strongest in Labrador, which is definitely not an island.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yesterday there was a by-election for Red Deer City Council (at-large)

The race was basically a de-facto NDP vs UCP race, as the winner Chad Krahn was the constituency assistant to Red Deer South MLA Jason Stephan, while the runner-up, Jaelene Tweedle was the NDP candidate in Red Deer North last year.

Results:
Chad Krahn 2,512 (36.9%)
Jaelene Tweedle 2,355 (34.6%)
Buck Buchanan 479 (7.0%) - former city councillor and Wildrose candidate in 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

The Baie-Verte-Green Bay, NL provincial by-election has been called for May 27
Also, Pictou West, NS was recently called for May 21

[Hatman 🍁]

The Milton and Lambton-Kent-Middlesex provincial by-elections have been called for May 2.

Interestingly, Crombie is not running in Milton. I guess she doesn't think she could win it?

As I understand Lambton should stay PC but Milton is the one to watch for a PC vs Lib battle.

Lambton-Kent-Middlesex is a super safe PC riding, but the real race will for second place. The Liberals haven't finished 2nd there since 2011, and that was when they had the power of incumbency (this area is ancestrally Liberal, back when they were more tolerant of socons). Federally, the Liberals typically finish in second, with the NDP only ever doing so in 2011.

If the polls are to believed (and given the riding's demographics, they should be taken with a grain of salt), Milton is a pure toss-up riding. But it's a must win for the Liberals, because it's the kind of seat they need to get if they want a majority. The riding is fairly ethnically diverse and is growing rapidly (which is why I don't trust the polls), so I'd imagine the Liberals should be able to pick it up. If they can't, it's an indication that Ford is still popular among immigrants.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some thoughts,

As expected, polling in Milton was way off. Very hard riding to poll; probably very few landlines. LKM polling was pretty good though, which is to be expected for rural ridings.
Interesting choice for both pollsters to exclude New Blue, considering they broke 5% in LKM in 2022 (ahead of the Greens) and ended up doing the same thing in the by-election (as well as surpassing the Greens in Milton.. poor Kyle Hutton!)

I'd say the result in Milton is very unexpected. I guess the unpopularity of the federal Liberals is seeping into provincial politics as well. I'd imagine turnout was a big factor; a lot of the new residents of the riding (Milton added 7,000 new voters since the last election) who may be more progressive probably stayed home. Anyway, now we know why Bonnie didn't choose to run here. It would have been even more embarrassing had she been on the ballot.

The only saving grace for the Liberals is they finished second in LKM. Big whoop. But, that underscored a terrible night for the NDP (and the Greens). Of course, no reason for either party to really try.

Here are the swings:

Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
PC: -2.0%
LIB: +13.0%
NDP: -8.0%
NBP: -0.9%
GRN: -2.4%

PC hold (two party avg. swing: -7.5%)

Milton
PC: +4.0%
LIB: -0.5%
NDP: -2.9%
NBP: -0.0%
GRN: -1.4%

PC hold (+2.2%)

[Hatman 🍁]

While letting the Tories widen the gap in a seat like Milton is undoubtedly an embarrassment for the Liberals, some OLP people are claiming that federal dynamics made it hard for them to turn out voters, because not many people are interested in voting for someone who calls themselves a Liberal right now due to its association with the federal government (maybe they should change their name? Ontario United, maybe?) But if this really is a significant factor, the silver lining for Ontario Liberals is that by 2026, this may no longer be an issue.

Indeed, Ontarians love to elect different parties in Ottawa and Queen's Park.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'd say the result in Milton is very unexpected. I guess the unpopularity of the federal Liberals is seeping into provincial politics as well. I'd imagine turnout was a big factor; a lot of the new residents of the riding (Milton added 7,000 new voters since the last election) who may be more progressive probably stayed home.

*Are* they "more progressive", though?  While in practice, the newest parts *have* been more Lib-leaning in the past, I think they're more like free agents--and oftentimes even stealth "Ford Progressives" a la the NDP/PC swingers in Brampton in '22.

Well, we have seen some progressivism from newer neighbourhoods with young people moving out because they can't afford to live in the city anymore. That's what I was alluding too. Not sure how much of that exists in Milton vs. most of the new homes being bought up by new Canadians. I would think that latter was more solidly Tory.

[Hatman 🍁]

We have our first poll for the Gatineau mayoral by-election. It looks like it's going to come down to two candidates.
 
Maude Marquis-Bissonnette (Action Gatineau, centre-left): 27% - mayoral candidate for AG last election. AG is the only municipal party in the city, and holds 8/20 seats.
Yves Ducharme (Ind.): 19% - former mayor of Gatineau (2002-2005) and Hull (1992-2001). Past Liberal donor and recently a CAQ donor. Has the support of a former Liberal MNA
Olive Kamanyana (Ind.): 9% - current city councillor. Ran for CAQ in the 2018 provincial election in Pontiac. She has recently donated to the PLQ though.
Stéphane Bisson (Ind.) 9% - former Gatineau chamber of commerce president. There's someone with this name who has donated to the Liberals and to the NDP (could be multiple people, as the postal codes are different) and also the CAQ
Daniel Feeny (Ind.) 5% - Director of communications for the outgoing mayor.

Mississauga has had several polls for their mayoral by-election. Here is the most recent poll that was just released:

Carolyn Parrish: 37% - former Liberal MP and current city councillor. Most notable for getting in trouble for stepping on a George W Bush figurine due to her opposition to the Iraq war while an MP.
Dipika Damerla: 20% - former Liberal MPP and current city councillor. She wants to rip up the bike lanes on Bloor St, so I instinctively hate her.
Alvin Tedjo: 17% - current city councillor. Ran for the OLP leadership in 2020 and ran for them in the 2018 provincial election.
Stephen Dasko: 11% - current city councillor. Is a past PC donor and is running a typical centre-right campaign.

Oh, and Xiao Hua Gong, the guy who ran in the Toronto mayoral by-election by spamming the city with his election signs and his AI generated campaign speeches is also running.

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberal MP for Cloverdale-Langley City is resigning his seat to run for the BC NDP in this year's election. Should be a relatively easy CPC pickup.

Jumping off a sinking ship to be a sacrificial lamb? OK

Anyway, for those keeping score at home, today is the Pictou West by-election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Popular provincial government + unpopular federal government = landslide win.

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, the NDP finishing a distant second in a seat they used to hold recently is not that big of a deal. Though agreed, it's a dreadful result for the Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, the NDP finishing a distant second in a seat they used to hold recently is not that big of a deal. Though agreed, it's a dreadful result for the Liberals.

Its not just this byelection - also what happened in Preston

The NDP lost vote share in Preston, even if they finished ahead of the Liberals. Grasping at straws, really. At least in Pictou their vote share went up.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, the Liberals are in big trouble in Nova Scotia everywhere

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP aren't even trying in St. Paul's? Ugh. I was going to say they they aren't bothering at all with by-elections anymore, but I am at least hopeful about LaSalle-Emard-Verdun.

Anyway, today is the day of the Baie Verte-Green Bay by-election in NL. The Liberals only won it by 171 votes in 2021, so it'll likely flip to the Tories tonight.

Funnily enough, the Liberals are running a federal Conservative in the race

[Hatman 🍁]

Data from the Baie Verte-Green Bay by-election

PC: 79.1% (+31.1)
Lib: 19.2% (-32.9)
NDP: 1.8% (Did not run in 2021)
PC GAIN from Liberal (Swing: 32.0)
Turnout: 56.5% (+14.4)

Notes:

Quite a huge swing (for comparison, the swing in Fogo Island-Cape Freels was 21.4), though it should be noted this is a traditional Tory seat, even for rural Newfoundland. The federal Conservatives did quite well here in 2019 as well.

Just like in Fogo, there was quite a bump in turnout (we're comparing to the COVID election of course, but still - 56% is great for a by-election)

Biggest vote share for the Tories in Baie Verte since 1989.

Finally, the Liberals did manage to win one poll, the small community of Rattling Brook. Wonder if it's the Liberal candidate's home town?

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP aren't even trying in St. Paul's? Ugh.

I should be clear, I don't actually know that they're "not trying" in St. Paul's, so I'm not suggesting that. But I think it's a very safe guess that the NDP aren't serious contenders in this byelection, and the NDP's byelection strategy this parliament seems to be to only contest seats they have a realistic shot of winning. So I feel very confident in saying the NDP probably aren't going to be serious contenders here.

If they decide to really fight it though (maybe try to piggyback off of Jill Andrew's provincial incumbency), that would make things interesting, and probably help the CPC by not allowing the Liberals to be the ABC vote bank.

It depends on what one's barometer of "aren't serious contenders" is (i.e. is the recent mid-to-high-teens norm a reflection of seriousness or unseriousness?).  And remember that the Ford majorities didn't prevent the provincial Tories from finishing 3rd twice in a row.  So don't discount the likelihood of the NDP being a joint ABC *and* ABL vote bank, an alternative for those deep-Laurentian types who want to punish Justin but can't stomach voting for PP (though unlike in '18, the NDP aren't broadly benefiting from overtaking the Libs in the polls).

By "serious contender", I simply mean whether or not they have a serious chance of actually winning the seat. Which I think makes sense in this context, because the NDP doesn't seem to be putting quite as much effort into byelections where they don't really have a chance of flipping it. Not that there's anything wrong with that given the NDP's current polling and perennially cash-strapped bank account. Elmwood-Transcona is up soon, holding that seat merits more resources than flexing their muscles in St. Paul's.

You might have a point though that the NDP could serve as both ABC and ABL in this riding, given the demographics. Liberals numbers are abysmal and only seem to get lower, but Tories likely have a pretty hard ceiling here, and we've seen how the combination of these two factors can boost the NDP, e.g. how the ONDP unexpectedly flipped this very riding in 2018 and held it in 2022. But byelections are a turnout game, and absent of a strong NDP campaign, I suspect these would-be NDP voters are much more likely to just not vote instead, especially since this kind of voter probably skews younger and less likely to turn out than, say, Forest Hill old money or Jewish voters along Bathurst. Neither of whom are good demos for the NDP.

Based on our polling, the NDP actually had the best turnout game in the 2022 provincial election (not necessarily in St. Paul's, but province wide). People who sat the election out were much more likely to be Liberals or Tories.