Manitoba Election 2023 - October 3rd

[Hatman 🍁]

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

[Hatman 🍁]

We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

[Hatman 🍁]

We saw the PPC do fairly well in the Mennonite belt in the last federal election, winning several polls. I wonder if there will a far-right party put some resources there this time.

Even if Kinew presently looks like a shoe-in, I'm bracing for the likelihood of a "shy Tory effect".  (Just "likelihood",  Not "inevitability".)

Bradley effect maybe?

Anything is possible, but we had an election with Kinew as leader in 2019 and I don't recall any "Bradley effect" that time.

True, but there was a bit of a shy Tory effect. One wonders though it the kind of voters that Kinew needs to win are generally progressive, but might be uncomfortable with an Indigenous premier, or at least uncomfortable with someone that has Kinew's background.

Is 'Kinew's background' a euphemism for 'once faced domestic abuse allegations', or is everyone in Manitoba still too polite to bring that up?

This is exactly when I'm referring to.

As for whether or not he'd be the First Indigenous Premier, didn't the Manitoba Assembly pass a resolution claiming that Louis Riel was the first Premier of the province?

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm wondering if the drop in NDP support is because of the debate about searching that landfill for the murdered Indigenous women? I'd imagine more fiscally conservative people might be put off by the large price tag for finding a needle in a haystack.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP probably has more to gain from the Liberals and Greens, too. Though maybe right wing Liberals will go to the PCs once they find out the Liberals have outflanked the NDP on their left.

[Hatman 🍁]

There's no way the NDP is only down by 1 outside Winnipeg

[Hatman 🍁]

I brought up the landfill issue earlier in this thread, and now it looks like the PCs are - in desperate fashion - making it an issue to try and get back in this race. I guess they think there is some traction?

[Hatman 🍁]

I brought the landfill issue earlier in this thread, and now it looks like the PCs are - in desperate fashion - making it an issue to try and get back in this race. I guess they think there is some traction?

...or they are circling the drain and madly grasping at straws

didn't say they weren't!

[Hatman 🍁]

Jays playoff game today, will it suppress turnout/attention at all? There may be quite a few people travelling to Minneapolis to watch (not enough to affect the election of course); I seem to recall there were a lot of Jays fans in attendance there during the regular season, but I'm not sure how popular they actually are in Manitoba. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Final polls no surprise.  I have watched enough campaigns and behavior of PCs was one that knows they are going to lose and trying to shore up base while NDP looked like a winning one.  Off course I guess we will have to wait to find out, but I expect NDP to win a majority, just a question of how big.  PCs though probably still get over 40% and ironically may get a higher popular vote share than Ford and Legault despite losing (Notley got a higher vote share than both also).

Radio-Canada says that Stefanson did not campaign in Winnipeg between September 22 and yesterday.

That's a winning strategy if I ever heard of one. Don't even bother going to the city with a majority of the province's seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

[Hatman 🍁]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

I sincerely doubt it. We're only waiting on advance votes from outside the riding. Last election there were 687 of these in Tuxedo, and they didn't vote that much differently from the rest of the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

if we're only waiting for the out of riding advance polls for five ridings, that will probably only amount to a small handful of votes each, so I doubt any ridings will flip.

[Hatman 🍁]

Barely any changes in the margins. Knowing that there were probably so few votes left to count, the media should've called these races a bit earlier.