Toronto Mayoral By Election

[Hatman 🍁]

Olivia Chow is in- she signed up to run this morning.

Looks like there will be 6 main candidates (from left wing to right wing):

Olivia Chow, former NDP MP
Josh Matlow, city councillor
Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP
Ana Bailao, city councillor
Brad Bradford, city councillor
Mark Saunders, former chief of police

Matlow and Bradford have been more centrist in the past but have tacked leftward/rightward respectively in this campaign.

[Hatman 🍁]

Olivia Chow is in- she signed up to run this morning.

Looks like there will be 6 main candidates (from left wing to right wing):

Olivia Chow, former NDP MP
Josh Matlow, city councillor
Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP
Ana Bilao, city councillor
Brad Bradford, city councillor
Mark Saunders, former chief of police

Matlow and Bradford have been more centrist in the past but have tacked leftward/rightward respectively in this campaign.

Olivia Chow is well-known, but I get the feeling that she might be a paper tiger in this race, particularly if the left-wing vote decides to coalesce around someone more "electable"

It's possible, but is Matlow all that electable? I heard he's absolutely loathed in the suburbs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto drivers do need more policing actually, especially in intersections.

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto drivers do need more policing actually, especially in intersections.

Pro-police but pro-pedestrian, that's some #EnlightenedCentrism if I've ever seen it

I'm above-all anti-car. That does not put me at all close to the centre ;-)

[Hatman 🍁]

Penalosa has dropped out and endorsed Chow.

[Hatman 🍁]

New MSR poll:

Chow 23
Bailão 19
Matlow 18
Saunders 14
Bradford 7
Hunter 7

[Hatman 🍁]

New MSR poll:

Chow 23
Bailão 19
Matlow 18
Saunders 14
Bradford 7
Hunter 7

huh...

Chow 23 - Social Democratic (L)
Bailão 19 - Moderate (C)
Matlow 18 - Progressive (LC)
Saunders 14 - Conservative (R)
Bradford 7 - Moderate (CR)
Hunter 7 - Progressive (C)

The city's left voters really have one candidate that they can now rally around (I think if we compare that to Toronto wide NDP vote federally, it would probably be around 20-25. Chow has some room to grow but mostly off of Matlow, still low ceiling of 30% likely), while it looks more and more that the cities Progressive/Moderate (i.e. Liberal Party) vote is being stretched out among 4 candidates. Saunders looks to have captured the Conservative vote which is still either not showing up or is also being spread out to Bradford.
It's looking like the next mayor will probably win with less then 30% of the vote. BUT will we see a repeat of Ottawa Municipal? where the C-CR rallies around one candidate to stop the leftist candidate from winning?

I think a lot of the right wing vote is being wrapped up in some of the 'other' candidates right now, like Davis, Furey, Mammoliti, and Chris Sky, so Saunders still has some room to grow.

huh...

Chow 23 - Social Democratic (L)
Bailão 19 - Moderate (C)
Matlow 18 - Progressive (LC)
Saunders 14 - Conservative (R)
Bradford 7 - Moderate (CR)
Hunter 7 - Progressive (C)

What makes you label Bailao as "moderate" and Hunter as "progressive"? I see zero ideological difference between them.

There is a bit of an ideological difference in their supporters from what I've seen. I would classify Bailao's vote pool as "urban centrist" and Hunter as "suburban Liberal". Baialo's voter are less progressive, but more urbanist if that makes sense.

[Hatman 🍁]

Endorsements are a big deal in municipal politics, which lack parties, so voters use them as a cue as to who to vote for. I'm fully expecting Bailao to pull away and win this at this point, as she coalesces the centre vote.

Interestingly, Saunders isn't getting any of the traditional Tory endorsements. They're all going to Furey, who is polling at 1%

[Hatman 🍁]

New poll out by Liaison Strategies. Never heard of them, and their numbers are a bit different than MSR's, at least when it comes to Bailao.

Chow 23
Matlow 21
Saunders 19
Bradford 11
Bailão 9
Hunter 9

Now, I believe MSR is Bailao's pollster, so that might be why she's doing well in their results. Of course, if they're doing most of the polling, their numbers will shape the narrative.

[Hatman 🍁]

What "traditional Tory endorsements" have there been for Furey?

Well, as has been mentioned he doesn't have any sitting MPPs, but he has some past MPPs and MPs as well as former Senator Vern White (who was Ottawa's police chief, which is interesting that he's not backing another officer in Saunders).

Bradford and Saunders have no endorsements at all, of any kind.

[Hatman 🍁]

That poll seems to be an outlier

Forum's last poll had Bailao at 11%, so not sure about that. Remember, MSR is Bailao's pollster...

[Hatman 🍁]

Saunders got his first endorsement from Stephen Holyday.

[Hatman 🍁]

New MSR poll, of course Bailão continues to do well...

Chow 26 (+3)
Bailão 22 (+3)
Matlow 14 (-4)
Saunders 11 (-3)
Bradford 9 (+2)
Hunter 5 (-2)

Keep in mind, 34% are undecided, and they appear to be more likely to be suburban and less educated. So, they will not be breaking for Chow.  Matlow's vote seems to be going to Chow though, so we'll see if he continues to tank.

[Hatman 🍁]

We've had several polls out over the last view days, and they all point to Olivia winning. The latest is from Viewpoints Research, commissioned by the left wing think tank the Broadbent Institute.

Chow 32
Saunders 19
Bradford 15
Matlow 11
Bailão 10
Hunter 6

BradBrad's best poll so far.

If this becomes a Chow vs. Saunders race, I like Olivia's chances. I'm not sure if she could beat Bailão or Bradford in a two-way race.

Also fun to note, Bailão continues to poll badly among all the firms except MSR.

[Hatman 🍁]

The poll was not an outlier for Bailao. Have you guys been ignoring me about MSR's bias? Every single MSR poll since mid February has Bailao over 15%, while every non-MSR poll has her below 15%. This is a very clear example of bias.

Speaking of MSR, here are their recent numbers (change since 1 week ago):

Chow 31 (+5)
Bailão 17 (-5)
Matlow 15 (+1)
Saunders 12 (+1)
Hunter 9 (+4)
Bradford 6 (-3)


Bailao is starting to tank, but MSR still has her in second.

Also, kind of weird to see Hunter getting a bump.

[Hatman 🍁]

Right now, Saunders looks to be becoming Chow's main rival on the right. But he's probably too right wing to get enough support to defeat Chow. I think if any of the more moderate candidacies took off, they would've had a good chance to defeat her.

We've had two more polls from the weekend:

Forum:
Chow 36 (+3)
Saunders 18 (+4)
Hunter 10 (+2)
Matlow 10 (-4)
Bailão 7 (nc)
Bradford 6 (-1)
Others 14 (-3)

Liaison Strategies (is this Brad Brad's pollster? His numbers seem inflated with them)
Chow 30 (+3)
Saunders 16 (nc)
Bradford 12 (nc)
Hunter 12 (+2)
Matlow 15 (-1)
Bailão 7 (-2)
Others 9 (nc) - they prompted for Furey (2%) and Perruzza (1%)

Seems to some movement from Matlow to Chow and maybe from the fringe right to Saunders.

- I don't know what the hell Mitzie Hunter is doing, and it seems like she doesn't either. Could have been a serious candidate, and she's actually a very strong candidate on paper, but this mayoral campaign is going nowhere.

I mean, she is surprisingly polling better now than she had been a few weeks ago. If you discount MSR's numbers, she's the main centrist candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

As tempting as it might be to draw parallels with the Ottawa mayoral election, its important to keep in mind that the City of Toronto and the City of Ottawa as presently constituted are very very different. When Ottawa was amalgamated they appended lots of very exurban and rural areas to the city that are very conservative. The Toronto equivalent of those areas are all outside of the City of Toronto in York, Peel and Durham regions. This means that the Toronto electorate is far more left of centre than the Ottawa electorate.   

How soon we forget the 2014 mayoral race. Voters were looking for a centrist option to stop Chow and Ford.

[Hatman 🍁]

My only point is that due to the very different municipal boundaries, the City of Toronto is a much more Liberal/NDP electorate than is the City of Ottawa. Pierre Poilievre is MP for an exurban Ottawa seat that is entirely in the City of Ottawa. No federal Tory even came close to winning a seat in the City of Toronto.   

It isn't really necessary to explain to me the differences between the two cities, I could write a book on the subject. Yes, Ottawa has a far higher percentage of voters who will vote to block progressives from winning, but they still exist in Toronto and could've been influential in this election (and may still prove to be). These voters don't all live outside the greenbelt; many are boomers who live in the inner-suburbs of both cities. They have no problem voting Liberal, but when it comes to municipal politics, will not vote for progressives. Anyway, my point- if you will recall is that Mark Saunders is TOO right wing to win over these voters in Toronto, even to block Chow. If you want to compare that with Ottawa, than someone like Saunders could beat someone like Chow. It already happened in 2006.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sorry if I sounded like i was explaining Ottawa vs Toronto to you personally. I was making the point more for the benefit of people reading this thread who may be from outside of Ontario.

You did bring up Ottawa, and as the only Ottawan participating here, it did seem like it. But anyway, I do agree that Chow is heavily favoured right now. I was skeptical at her chances at first, but her opposition is too divided right now, and it seems unlikely that anyone of them will pull away. Of course, with the Leafs out of the playoffs now, and the debates about to begin, things could change. It is the campaign itself where the polls are most volatile after all.

If Chow continues to lead with no main opponent, voters will treat it as a forgone conclusion and turnout will be quite low. The timing of the election will also ensure a low turnout. How many people will be on vacation on election day?

Anyway, has Toronto moved to the left over the last 20 years? It's hard to say, really. When it comes to mayoral elections, I would say it hasn't. The 2010 mayoral race was a direct repudiation of Miller, and probably contributed to Chow's defeat in 2014. As time goes by, the memory of Miller fades, making progressive candidates palpable again, but his ghost still lingers. People certainly don't want the Ford chaos again either, of course. Toronto still wants a moderate, which is why polls show John Tory would win if he were running. As a progressive, it's a sad prospect, but such is reality. If Chow wins, and is a competent mayor though, then the city will be more comfortable electing progressives in the future.

[Hatman 🍁]

Amalgamation has been a disaster and was purely conceived to keep progressives from running cities. In municipal politics, Liberals are rarely progressives, so save me the discussion about Liberals winning in the suburbs meaning a mega GTA would somehow vote in progressives.  And if you're bringing up racial segregation, then you've already lost the argument. This is not the US.

Ok, now back to the topic on hand...

[Hatman 🍁]

flummoxes me that people could not want the wonders of amalgamation.

Even if you disagree with someone, it should not "flummox" you why someone may not agree with you, especially when presented with loads of evidence plus lived-in experience.

[Hatman 🍁]

Amalgamation has been a disaster and was purely conceived to keep progressives from running cities.

Did progressives run cities, though? Sometimes the inner urban core, but generally not a lot else, and that's not really as 'the city' when it's only a relatively small proportion of the population of the continuous built-up area as, by the 1990s, it usually was. Poverty of ambition there!

More often than they do now. Ottawa had an NDP mayor in the 1980s. That will never happen again.

Amalgamation was perfectly logical given the massive expansion of Toronto since the 1970s and I've never seen a credible argument against the general principal, but it would have been a good idea to have converted the old municipalities into borough councils (effective just swapping around the power balance of what where then existing arrangements). It is also quite ridiculous to have such a large city with so few councillors: that's a state of affairs that positively encourages alienation from the electorate, though the public choice calculation amongst existing local politicians to prefer there to be very few of them is obvious enough.

Yes, it is quite ridiculous to have such a large city with so few councillors and no borough councils. I would be a lot more supportive of amalgamation if there were more democracy at the local level. More councillors, with boroughs, like you suggested. But that's not what amalgamation meant in Ontario. In addition to trying to keep progressives from running things, it was an overall attempt to reduce the number of politicians. Same reason Harris cut the size of the Ontario legislature.

[Hatman 🍁]

There have been NDP-affiliated mayors in other Canadian cities over the years. Vancouver, Burnaby, Nanaimo and Victoria obviously. Hamilton now has Andrea Horwath and London and Sudbury have had them off and on Edmonton has had NDP linked mayors off and on since the 1960s!

Of those, only Hamilton and Sudbury are amalgamated cities. And Andrea only barely won her mayoral race, as the centre and centre right was galvanized to block her. Sudbury has the advantage of having some NDP friendly suburbs, unlike every other city in the province. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Did progressives run cities, though? Sometimes the inner urban core, but generally not a lot else, and that's not really as 'the city' when it's only a relatively small proportion of the population of the continuous built-up area as, by the 1990s, it usually was. Poverty of ambition there!

More often than they do now. Ottawa had an NDP mayor in the 1980s. That will never happen again.

And let's not forget that amalgamation also skunked Hamilton; which is why Andrea Horwath barely won her mayoral bid last year.

Though one net effect effect of these amalgamations is that they have a way of making the former core city geographies even *more* progressive than when they were standalones.  (I remember the Torontonian hand-wringing in the 80s and 90s over how the left just couldn't dislodge the likes of Eggleton & Rowlands--and it was also an era when NDP/progressives didn't have today's vice grip on City or Metro Council within that geography.  But conversely, the NDP tended to be *more* viable in the outer municipalities then than now: the post-Rae backlash really did a number on party infrastructure within those jurisdictions.)

To be fair, changing demographics have meant that the old city cores have become much more progressive since the 1980s. Even in the last 20 years. In the 2006 Ottawa election, Alex Munter was essentially tied with Larry O'Brien in the old city, but in last year's mayoral election, McKenney easily won the old city. Both Mutner and McKenney got similar city wide vote totals. Seems like the city has become more polarized.

[Hatman 🍁]

MSR trying their best to steal the election for Bailao. You hate to see it:

Chow 30 (-1)
Bailão 21 (+6) (!!!)
Matlow 14 (+4)
Saunders 10 (-2)
Hunter 9 (nc)
Furey 7 (nc)
Bradford 4 (-2)