Prince Edward Island provincial election - April 3, 2023

[Hatman 🍁]

What are the odds it's going to be 26 PCs and 1 Green?

[Hatman 🍁]

Once again stating for the record that I am not from PEI, so don’t think I’m an expert here.

That aside, I’d guess that the PCs will curbstomp their opponents. NDP will continue to be an embarrassment and the Greens will likely come out ahead of the Liberals (that’s not saying much though).

I'm not expecting any miracles but the PEI NDP seems to have its act together more this time than in the last few elections. They already have candidates in 17/27 ridings and they seem to have brought in organizers from Nova Scotia etc... so maybe there could be a three way tie for official opposition if the Liberals, Greens and NDP each win one seat!

Which seat exactly would be the lone Liberal seat? Their leader is running against Bevan-Baker, so it's not going to be her.

The Liberals lost their safest seat in the province in a by-election in 2021, so it's not going to be it, either.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tignish-Palmer Road will probably remain Liberal, as Hal Perry is running again and won easily last time. But, I wouldn't call it a safe Liberal seat. It was Gail Shea's provincial riding after all. And Perry won it as a Tory in 2011 before crossing the aisle. It's a fairly culturally conservative riding, as it's opposed electoral reform fairly strongly in all of PEI's referendums. Generally the further from Charlottetown a riding is, the less likely it is to support electoral reform.

Herb Dickieson will likely lose again, but he has a large personal vote in his home area that he always does well in.  But, he definitely has a better shot of winning than the leader. The PEI NDP isn't really considered seriously by voters anymore (if it ever had been). Progressives in Charlottetown will continue to vote Green.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP doesn't stand a chance in Stanhope. If they're going to win a seat, it will be O'Leary-Inverness where Herb Dickieson is running again. He has a large personal following in his part of the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm also wondering if there's ever been a major party leader/incoming opposition leader to bomb as badly in his/her individual riding as Sharon Cameron (14.7% for a distant 3rd)

And anyone with half a brain could've predicted that would happen too. Why she decided to run against PBB is beyond me.