Quebec election, 2007

[Hatman 🍁]

Since when is the Green Party sovereigntist

Btw, QS will not win any seats so nevermind any coalitions.

[Hatman 🍁]

The PVQ is not associated with the Green Party, no more than QS is associated with the NDP.

And I could see QS winning a seat or two, though it's not hugely likely.

I know that QS is not associated with the NDP, but I know for a fact that PVQ is not sovereigntist. Do you have any proof that they are?

[Hatman 🍁]

One note about polling in Quebec. The PQ always fail to get what polls give them, but that's cancelled out by the fact that they don't need as many votes to win the election.

This will definitely be a close one I think!

[Hatman 🍁]

The PVQ is not associated with the Green Party, no more than QS is associated with the NDP.

And I could see QS winning a seat or two, though it's not hugely likely.

I know that QS is not associated with the NDP, but I know for a fact that PVQ is not sovereigntist. Do you have any proof that they are?

Hmmm... I just did further research, and apparently I was looking at the old PVQ. There was apparently one in the early 90s and another now, and the old one was sovereigntist. I'm not sure whether the current one is sovereigntist or not.

Correct, they WERE sovereigntist. The new party has not made any policy decisions on the matter.

Gilles Duceppe is a Marxist?  I didn't know that till yesterday.

He was a Marxist, yes.

[Hatman 🍁]

This will avoid a conflict with a possible spring federal election.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think the point was to get a PLQ victory in order to destroy any BQ momentum federally and also maybe to discourage the BQ from pushing a spring election.

That's a possibility. At this point, I think the Liberals will win, but it's too early to tell.

[Hatman 🍁]

Races to watch:

Cremazie, Groulx, La Prairie, Saint-Jean, Chambly, Marguerite-D'Youville, Trois-Rivieres, Maskinonge, Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue, Roberval, Matane, Montmagny-L'Islet, Beauce-Sud, Sherbrooke, Iberville, Arthabaska, Jean-Talon, La Peltrie, Portneuf, Chauveau, Montmorency, Levis

[Hatman 🍁]

Sherbrooke? Is there something big against Charest in his county?

Well, if the PQ does well, they can get it. Charest won it by less than 3,000 votes last time. Plus, we all know Liberal leaders do poorly in their home riding. Bourassa 1985 anyone? (Liberals won 99 of 122 seats in 1985 and their leader, Robert Bourassa wasn't one of them! [he lost narrowly])

[Hatman 🍁]

In 2003, speculation was rife that the ADQ might form the next government. They even polled as high as 42% at one point. *Yawn*

Yeah, they won some by-elections around then. The ADQ could win government some day though, I fear. I don't think this happens now though. They *may* gain a few seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't count out a minority. I dont think it's ever happened before though.

[Hatman 🍁]

The latest poll had the PQ in third place in the Quebec City area!

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a cool interactive map: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/99999999/CPACTUALITES02/70223219&template=largeelections

[Hatman 🍁]

Bump. Election on Monday

here's H&K's predictor map: http://www.predictionshkdp.com/

helps if you can speak French

[Hatman 🍁]

Predictions?

PLQ: 60 seats
PQ: 50 seats
ADQ: 15 seats

[Hatman 🍁]

The ADQ will get more than 15 seats IMO.

To be honest, I have no clue. They may very well pick up a large handful. (a la CPC in 2006)

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm guessing 23 seats for the ADQ. My prediction is:

PLQ: 53
PQ: 49
ADQ: 23

Charest resigns and is replaced as Premier, and the new PLQ leader calls another election before the end of the year.

Why would Charest resign after winning?

[Hatman 🍁]

Boisclair will not resign. Leaders are usually given a second chance. Charest will not resign either, unless the Liberals lose.

[Hatman 🍁]

I reckon at 7pm we'll know the Magdelan Islands.

[Hatman 🍁]

I reckon at 7pm we'll know the Magdelan Islands.

Iles-de-la-Madeleine is hardly a result in doubt, though. Should be an easy PQ hold with the ADQ performing dismally once more and the PVQ performing dismally for the first time. (They don't seem to like new parties much.)

Im not sure if provincial laws fall under the Election Act's provision about releasing results before the rest of the polls are closed. I guess we'll have to wait until 7pm to find out.

[Hatman 🍁]

The polls have closed in the Magdelan Islands (I think), but I cant find any results.

[Hatman 🍁]

They must be closing at 9pm Atlantic Time

Sucks, they'd always be the first riding to report. They used to be a good belwhether riding back in the day.

[Hatman 🍁]

PLQ - 2
ADQ - 1
PQ  - 1

[Hatman 🍁]

PQ now leading in the Magdalen Islands...

PQ - 2
ADQ - 1
PLQ - 1

[Hatman 🍁]

2-2-1

ADQ leads in Ungava
PLQ leads in Argenteuil, Chomedy
PQ leads in Magdalen Islands, Megantic-Compton

[Hatman 🍁]

Greens are leading in Laviolette! hahaha