Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Hatman 🍁]

I've added two new Alternatives:  the City of Hamilton and the York University area

A friend lives in Flamborough--Glanbrook and describes it as a 'monstrosity'.  He asked me to do better.  I think I have.

I really like your alternate Hamilton map. I would say add it to you main map.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've made two changes to the map:

• replaced the bizarre current Hamilton ridings with a much-acclaimed alternative
• moved the Humber River--Black Creek/Downsview boundary from Black Creek to Grandravine Dr. to keep more of the York University community in HRBC

You can find the new, improved map here.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Also, when I looked at my Ontario chart I wondered what a Hamilton-Brant riding would look like, and what ridings would be created by the ripple effects.  Well, wonder no more.  Check the Alternatives box to find out.

Not terrible tbh.

BTW, I've been beta testing the new riding builder (made by election-atlas/ca / the506) and made a 37 seat Ottawa and a 100 seat Toronto map for fun:

[Hatman 🍁]

More fun: What if Northern Ontario was a province, or had a devolved legislature?

 

[Hatman 🍁]

More fun: What if Northern Ontario was a province, or had a devolved legislature?

What's the pop/seat in that hypothetical legislature?

About 13-14K

More fun: What if Northern Ontario was a province, or had a devolved legislature?

 

NOW map out the winning party for each seat!
I'm sure it would be easy enough, it looks like you wiki page is based on 2018 Provincial vote?

Not going to bother mapping it, but this is my guess on how each seat voted in 2018 (I'm hoping when its ready, the app will give vote totals):

Northwest (9)   
Kiiwetinoong   NDP
Lake of the Woods-Red Lake   PC
Kenora   PC
Fort Frances-Rainy River   NDP
Dryden   PC
Atikokan-Ignace-Sioux Lookout   PC
Neebing-Kakabeka Falls   PC
Lake Nipigon   Lib
Superior   NDP
   
Northeast (9)   
Mushkegowuk-James Bay   NDP
Kapuskasing-Hearst   NDP
Iroquois Falls-Cochrane   NDP
Timmins West   NDP
Timmins Centre   NDP
Timmins East   NDP
Kirkland Lake-Englehart   NDP
Temiskaming Shores   NDP
Nipissing-Timiskaming-Gogama   NDP
   
Algoma-Manitoulin (10)   
Sault Ste. Marie-Goulais   PC
Sault Ste. Marie-Prince   PC
Sault Ste. Marie West   NDP
Sault Ste. Marie East   NDP
Sault Ste. Marie North   NDP
Sault Ste. Marie-Echo Bay   PC
Huron Shores-Chapleau   NDP
Elliot Lake-Serpent River   NDP
Manitoulin   NDP
Espanola-Killarney   NDP
   
Near North (9)   
Callander-Mattawa River-Algonquin   PC
Amalguin Highlands   PC
Magnetawan-Burk’s Falls-Kearney   PC
Parry Sound   PC
West Nipissing   NDP
North Bay-Widdifield   PC
North Bay Centre   NDP
North Bay-Gateway   PC
North Bay-Ferris   PC
   
Thunder Bay (8)   
Port Arthur-Current River   Lib
Port Arthur Centre   Lib
Port Arthur South   Lib
Fort William West   Lib
Fort William North   NDP
Fort William South   NDP
McIntyre North   Lib
McIntyre-Neebing   Lib
   
Greater Sudbury (12)   
Onaping Falls   NDP
Walden-Copper Cliff   NDP
Cambrian Heights-Azilda   NDP
Val Caron-Val Therese   NDP
Hanmer-Capreol   NDP
Sudbury South-Wanup   NDP
Nickel Centre   NDP
Robinson-Laurentian   NDP
Sudbury Centre   NDP
Nickeldale-Flour Mill   NDP
New Sudbury   NDP
Minnow Lake-Adamsdale   NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

Why couldn't they just demand to not lose a seat, make a deal with the Liberals and pass an amendment?

[Hatman 🍁]

I think you still need "York" in the York South-Weston riding name, as it contains most of the former borough of York. Even just calling it York-Weston would work.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's what I had in mind for Northern Ontario:



Both Thunder Bay ridings are just over the 25% threshold, without eating into Kenora. TBRR takes in some Thunder Bay suburbs in the McKellar area, akin to how the map looked in the 1990s. TBSN (re-named Thunder Bay-Superior), wraps all the way down Lake Superior to the northern edge of the Soo.

AMK gets nuked, of course. Kap area goes to TJB, Elliot Lake area goes to the Soo (new riding of Sault Ste. Marie-Elliot Lake, or maybe just "Algoma"). Nickel Belt gets Manitoulin (Nickel Belt-Manitoulin), while it loses West Nipissing to Nipissing-Timiskaming. Sudbury/Nickel Belt borders get re-jigged. All of the ridings in the NE have about 100,000 people.

[Hatman 🍁]

• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.

(1) Fort York-Harbourside (2) Fort-York-Waterfront (3) Fort York-Lakeshore, proposed from best to worst, but all better than Spadina-Fort-York.

"Harbourside" isn't really a name used here, but Harbourfront is, Fort York--Harbourfront would work.

But yes, better then the current. I'm still team Trinity-Fort York (almost all of the neigbourhood of Trinity-Bellwoods is here, and the entirety of the Park, it's also a call back to the old name of "Trinity-Spadina")

I'd also maybe update "Don Valley East", since it now covers part of Scarborough, to something like:
Don Mills--Wexford or "Don Valley East--Wexford"

Most likely the commission will come up with something boring like Don Valley-Scarborough or something like that.

Here's what I had in mind for Northern Ontario:



Both Thunder Bay ridings are just over the 25% threshold, without eating into Kenora. TBRR takes in some Thunder Bay suburbs in the McKellar area, akin to how the map looked in the 1990s. TBSN (re-named Thunder Bay-Superior), wraps all the way down Lake Superior to the northern edge of the Soo.

AMK gets nuked, of course. Kap area goes to TJB, Elliot Lake area goes to the Soo (new riding of Sault Ste. Marie-Elliot Lake, or maybe just "Algoma"). Nickel Belt gets Manitoulin (Nickel Belt-Manitoulin), while it loses West Nipissing to Nipissing-Timiskaming. Sudbury/Nickel Belt borders get re-jigged. All of the ridings in the NE have about 100,000 people.

This really is to the detriment of Northeastern Ontario, keeping the Northwest with such low numbers.  The Soo and all areas around it identify as part of Northeastern Ontario.  They get their news from CTV Northern Ontario, they do not belong with Thunder Bay.  There's no scenario where the Northwest should maintain 3 ridings, especially when it is to the detriment of the rest of the North. Thunder Bay is a large urban city, there's not justification for it being given "special consideration", especially when the people of remote areas of Attawakispat and Peawanuck are forced into a riding over 100k.  Might I add, the Northernmost parts of some provinces (Quebec), and the territories are geographically larger than any in Northwestern Ontario.

The other alternative is to make Thunder Bay its own riding, and expand Kenora to take in everything else. Not sure how well that would fly.

[Hatman 🍁]

Question, who would win a dedicated Thunder Bay riding?

Truly a three way race. And a western CON leader actually helps the Cons in Thunder Bay.

The Conservatives are stronger in the rural areas, so a strictly urban Thunder Bay riding would be fairly safe for the Liberals.

Would the commission, due to Northern Ontario's population and no protections on ridings (unlike at the provincial level) remove a seat in the North East, just 2 vs 3? Say a Kenora--Rainy River and Thunder Bay Superior. Any new SSM-Algoma seat and Timmins--James Bay would take in some areas of TB--Superior North.

Removing even one seat will be very unpopular, I don't think the commission will entertain the idea of removing even more than that in the north.

[Hatman 🍁]

Timmy, your district names need to be improved:

2: Kenora-Rainy River-Superior North
3: Timiskaming-Timmins-James Bay (this one is tough)
4: Algoma or Sault Ste. Marie-Elliot Lake
6: Nickel Belt-Manitoulin-Parry Sound
7: Nipissing-Petawawa or Nipissing-Algonquin

[Hatman 🍁]

Timmy, your district names need to be improved:

2: Kenora-Rainy River-Superior North
3: Timiskaming-Timmins-James Bay (this one is tough)
4: Algoma or Sault Ste. Marie-Elliot Lake
6: Nickel Belt-Manitoulin-Parry Sound
7: Nipissing-Petawawa or Nipissing-Algonquin

Are the boundaries themselves fine, though?

Not too bad, though I think splitting Thunder Bay is preferable than having a giant rural riding in the NW.

I'd probably also move northern Algoma District into the Soo based riding, and transfer the northern bits of Sudbury and Nipissing Districts into the Timmins based riding, and then move the Espanola area into the Georgian Bay based riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Never done this before, but what the heck, decided to try my hand at it. Started with Alberta, not suuuper familiar with the province so I'd love some feedback:

Calgary:

https://imgur.com/a/YwN98zd (for some reason it's not showing the image, so I just put down the link. If anyone has tips on how to fix this, please let me know)

Calgary Centre: 114,741,  -0.7%, the yellow riding in the middle of Calgary.

Bit of a weird shape, it maintains the downtown core and the industrial areas to the east, loses some of the affluent parts to the south close to the reservoir, gains the Wildwood area to the west.

Calgary Confederation: 111,936, -3.1%, pink riding north of Calgary Centre.

No big changes here, loses a bit of land in the northern part of the riding.

Calgary Glenmore: 115,888, +0.3%, orange riding south of Centre.

This is one of two new Calgary ridings, it has no obvious predecessor, as it's carved out of Heritage, Centre, Signal Hill, and a bit of Midnapore. Centred around its namesake reservoir with a slight panhandle to include Signal Hill.

Calgary Nose Hill: 114,677, -0.7%, pink riding north of Confederation.

Just a re-worked version of the existing riding of the same name.

Calgary North--Airdrie: 111,582, -3.4%, light green riding that extends out of Calgary proper (obviously)

This is a new riding. Airdrie, some of the rural areas to its east, a small northern portion of Nose Hill, and the parts of Skyview west of Deerfoot Trail.

Calgary Queensland: 119,911, +3.8%, tan riding straddling the Bow River.

This is Midnapore shifted northeast and crosses the river at some portions, taking from Shepard.

Calgary Rocky Ridge: 117,687, +1.9%, blue riding in the northwest.

Currently overpopulated, so I trimmed away some of its southern portions.

Calgary Shepard: 122,868, +6.4% orange riding in the southeast.

I must admit, not very proud of this one. Currently overpopulated so I took away some of its western portions by the Bow River, but had to adjust northwards and include Forest Lawn. But now there's a huge industrial portion separating the older working-class suburbs and more affluent areas to the south.

Calgary Skyview: 112,420, -2.7%, brown riding in the northeast.

Pretty much bounded by Deerfoot Trail and McKnight Blvd, a trimmed down version of the current riding that focuses more on the Saddle Ridge area. Probably the only seat in the city that would lean Liberal.

Calgary Somerset: 116,794, +1.1%, blue riding in the southwest.

This takes the southern parts of Heritage and Midnapore.

Calgary Sunridge: 111,432, -3.5%, light blue in the east of the city.

Mostly carved out of Calgary Forest Lawn but shifted a bit north, picking up Temple and Whitehorn while losing much of Forest Lawn.

Calgary West: 113,554, -1,7%, purple riding on the western edge of the city.

Carved out of Rocky Ridge and some of Signal Hill.

What do y'all think?

Right click > copy image link, and voila:

[Hatman 🍁]

Another relevant point for New Brunswick is the current municipal reform, which will cut the number of local governments from 328 to 77 through massive mergers (elections in November with new borders being legal from January 1st 2023).

Hadn't heard of them, but this came up high in the Google results
can we plan for these yet, i.e. make maps for New Brunswick knowing we won't be making something littered with municipal mergers?

https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/corporate/promo/local-governance-reform/maps.html

It seems every new merged city will be called "Entity X" (the new Fredericton is entity 69 and the new Moncton is Entity 34). I assume the new councils will give themselves names?

Obviously in some cases, these new municipalities won't be mergers at all. Like in your Moncton case, it appears it will have the exact same borders.

[Hatman 🍁]

You know, I think the area south of Fish Creek is about the size of one riding. Wouldn't it make sense to make that area one riding, since Fish Creek makes for such a natural border?

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, that's what I had in mind, at least for the riding you've named "Gretzky". Only 274 people off the quotient too!

Of course that map would be DOA with those specific names.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't understand the NDP's support for the Quebec representation thing either from a political angle or an ideological one.

It's consistent with their reasoning from the last redistribution, but then again they held a majority of seats in Quebec 10 years ago.

[Hatman 🍁]

The official 2021 poll-by-poll results are now available. Now we can measure the electoral consequences of our proposals. Joy!

And on another note, would it be possible to take the area between the rail line and the Rideau River by the Transitway and Billings Bridge and put it in Ottawa Centre, or is it hopelessly Ottawa South? Then we could put Riverside South in Ottawa South from Carleton and we would no longer have to shoehorn part of West Carleton into a Lanark-based riding.

Why would you do that? West Carleton has similar demos as Lanark County (angry rural Anglos/Irish) and have a history of being in the same riding. Riverside South is pretty far from the rest of Ottawa South, and is much more suburban. It belongs in a more suburban riding like Carleton. And the river makes for such a good border, why change it?

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh man, basically looks like an anti NDP gerrymander

[Hatman 🍁]

Guys, we've already figured out Ottawa. Look at Krago's map!

Anyway, because I enjoy giving arbitrary geographical shapes names, here are my suggestions for EastAnglianLefty's map

Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry -> Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry
Prescott-Russell -> Prescott-Russell-Osgoode or Prescott-Russell-Carleton
Orleans -> Orleans-Cumberland
Ottawa South -> Ottawa South-Gloucester
Ottawa-Vanier -> good as is.
Ottawa Central -> Ottawa Centre or Ottawa Centre-Alta Vista. As others mentioned, Alta Vista plus downtown is a weird mix, but it works for me as an Alta Vista resident
Ottawa West-Nepean -> Fine as is Actually, you now have two ridings that can conceivably be called this (Nepean-Kanata also has a large chunk of Old Ottawa), so maybe Nepean-Kitchissippi, or something generic like Ottawa-Rideau.
Barrhaven -> Barrhaven-Riverside South
Nepean-Kanata West -> Nepean-Britannia-Bridlewood. This does not contain the west part of Kanata, but I suspect that's just a typo.
Kanata -> Kanata-Stittsville
Renfrew -> Renfrew Pembroke
Lanark -> Lanark-Carleton (when in doubt, the any leftover rural bits in Ottawa can just be called "Carleton")
Leeds-Grenville -> good as is, or maybe Leeds-Grenville-Smiths Falls
Frontenac-Lennox & Addington-Prince Edward -> Prince Edward-Frontenac-Lennox and Addingston. This might be too long though. Frontenac-Adddington-Bay of Quinte might work as an alternative.
Kingston -> good as is.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh man, basically looks like an anti NDP gerrymander

The Eastern Ontario one or the Northern Ontario one? I wasn't aware the federal NDP really had any vaguely competitive seats in eastern Ontario these days.

Ottawa, specifically. The NDP is "competitive" in Ottawa Centre, but your map makes it impossible by splitting the central city from the hipster-ish neighbourhoods to its west, like Hintonburg and Westboro.

[Hatman 🍁]

Introducing Calgary-Country Hills. It's close to as Chinese as you can get, probably around 25-30%. I had to keep the population down to a minimum (89,448).

Provincially, it looks like the Chinese population is much more conservative than the rest of North Calgary. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Not a fan of that suburban Gatineau wrap around seat. Buckingham and Aylmer don't belong in the same seat.  You've also divided up the disparate Anglo communities between Pontiac and that wrap around riding. Places like Wakefield and Chelsea should be in Pontiac if at all possible. And Aylmer has a sizable Anglo population as well, so not a problem digging into it to shore up the population.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nova Scotia maps just dropped! Interesting choices of names - any locals/Atlantic Canadians have any thoughts?

First impressions:

Very pleased they are dropping those stupid ______ Nova names.

Sydney-Victoria looks undersized.

I like that they dropped the rural bits off of Halifax.

Splitting Bedford in two is a no-no

My riding (Shubenacadie-Bedford Basin) looks like a leftovers riding, combining Sackville, half of Bedford, a third of Dartmouth and some random rural bits. It doesn't seem to serve any community of interest.

There is some speculation that the proposed new boundaries for the Halifax riding would make it notionally NDP. Population growth in Halifax means that riding boundaries have to move inwards and cede outlying areas

https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/ns/prop/index_e.aspx

My back of the napkin math has the NDP taking it by < 100 votes. South Shore also probably flips Liberal. Shelburne County (the part that got moved) voted just as Tory as rural Alberta last time thanks to the Liberals mishandling the fisheries file.

Someone on Twitter calculated that it went Liberal by a handful of votes. Interestingly, even with Halifax losing a bunch of territory, it will still be largely overpopulated. The NDP should try to push the commission to make it even smaller!

[Hatman 🍁]

"Papineau" would make a great name for that orange riding, but of course that is taken. Apparently that area is also called La Petite Nation as a touristy name (which exists in the current riding's name as well), which would work. Just picking three random places in the riding to name it isn't going to work.

[Hatman 🍁]

I made a better map of BC last night. It seemed to get a lot of good comments on Twitter. What do you think?






It's big drawback is the Skeena-Bulkley Valley-Powell River riding. But by creating it, I was able to nuke the Burnaby North-Seymour riding and make the Van Island ridings smaller.