Ontario Election 2022

[Hatman 🍁]

More on the NDP in Ottawa.... Joel Harden beat Paul Dewar's high mark in 2011, winning 54% of the vote (Dewar only got 52% then). Looks like turnout made the difference. Ottawa Centre is known for very large turnouts (especially in federal elections), but only 55% showed up. Liberals stayed home.

Someone said to me “Liberals only vote when they are either enthusiastic or scared” and this time they were neither

This was one night when the NDp managed to run the tables on close races. They won the vast majority of close races they were involved in

Yeah, I kept thinking the NDP would drop into the mid 20s all night due to the close races. Nope!

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting how wrong many polls and seat projections were in northern Ontario. In the end the NDP had a net loss of just one seat there and these ludicrous projection that Sol Mamakwa would lose were spectacularly wrong

Even Mainstreet's model had it going PC. I would be embarrassed to have even entertained the notion of it going PC. Seeing how a model coloured Kiiwetinoong was kind of a shibboleth in determining whether a model was crap or not.

[Hatman 🍁]

Was the PC candidate in Thornhill even Jewish? Might not be with a name like Smith. Do you think some Jews didn't show up because of this?

[Hatman 🍁]

I can also see Schmidt becoming Smith...

Also, looking into Bob Rae, it was his grandfather (Goodman Cohen) than changed his name to Rae

[Hatman 🍁]

It "benefited" from the 2 Northern/Indigenous ridings being created, as they essentially cut it off from Mushgewuk-James Bay to have a Francophone/Indigenous riding. In the next redistribution it will surely be grouped in with either Nickel-Belt or Temiskaming-Cochrane as it does not have any protections like the 2 new Northern Ridings do to stay so small, and it will revert back to ONDP at that time.

Did someone mention redistribution?

My proposal - bit.ly/Canada343 - gives 9 seats to Northern Ontario and 113 seats to Southern Ontario.  The PC majority government gets to decide whether the North keeps its current 13 provincial seats, drops to nine, or settles for a number in-between.  Doug Ford has a reputation for slashing representation, so I have a guess as to which way he'll go, especially since removing four seats in the North could endanger four New Democrats.

If the provincial Tories give the North more ridings than the federal commissioners, I hope that they finally create a Northern Ontario Provincial Boundaries Commission to review the boundaries in the area.  Most of the ridings haven't been reviewed for almost thirty years!

I've been saying this for a bit; there should be a devolved Northern Ontario Assembly.

[Hatman 🍁]

As the NDP & Liberals got almost identical vote shares provincewide, here's a map showing which party did better in each riding (no shading this time):



NDP ahead of the Liberals in 66 ridings, Liberals ahead of the NDP in 58.

So basically Eastern Francophones+Toronto suburbs and exurbs = Liberal

Some shaded maps - as usual, for both the winners' margins & the winners' vote shares:






For comparison/contrast, here are ones for 2018:






And for 2014 (notional results):

I haven't seen the 2014 notional results mapped before. Surprised to see the Liberals "won" Barrie-SOR and Flamborough-Glanbrook. Two ridings Trudeau hasn't been able to crack.

[Hatman 🍁]

I haven't seen the 2014 notional results mapped before. Surprised to see the Liberals "won" Barrie-SOR and Flamborough-Glanbrook. Two ridings Trudeau hasn't been able to crack.

The former contained the heart of the formerly-coterminous Barrie riding, which Ann Hoggarth picked up for the Libs that year (and remember that Justin *nearly* won the new entity, to many people's surprise, in '15). 

Not to my surprise! I thought the Liberals would win both Barrie ridings in 2015: https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/ekos-seat-projection/