Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Hatman 🍁]

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

Super cool that he's running, and running for the good guys too!

Anyone else buy his Alberta map?

[Hatman 🍁]

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

Super cool that he's running, and running for the good guys too!

Anyone else buy his Alberta map?

Didn't Tories get over 80% here last time?  I suspect this is one of the safest Tory ridings in whole country.  In Saskatchewan, I think Saskatoon West and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only ridings I could see NDP flipping. 

No one is under the illusion he will win. It's just nice to see him put his name on the ballot.

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

Super cool that he's running, and running for the good guys too!

Anyone else buy his Alberta map?

Never underestimate the power of cartography to swing a district.

Didn't Tories get over 80% here last time?  I suspect this is one of the safest Tory ridings in whole country.  In Saskatchewan, I think Saskatoon West and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only ridings I could see NDP flipping. 

It's a paper candidacy, NDP got only 9.5% there last time

It's only a paper candidacy if you don't campaign, and he has already been door knocking.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's only a paper candidacy if you don't campaign, and he has already been door knocking.

Does he live in the riding?

Yes, he does.

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

Super cool that he's running, and running for the good guys too!

Anyone else buy his Alberta map?

Didn't Tories get over 80% here last time?  I suspect this is one of the safest Tory ridings in whole country.  In Saskatchewan, I think Saskatoon West and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only ridings I could see NDP flipping. 

No one is under the illusion he will win. It's just nice to see him put his name on the ballot.

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

Super cool that he's running, and running for the good guys too!

Anyone else buy his Alberta map?

Never underestimate the power of cartography to swing a district.

Didn't Tories get over 80% here last time?  I suspect this is one of the safest Tory ridings in whole country.  In Saskatchewan, I think Saskatoon West and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only ridings I could see NDP flipping. 

It's a paper candidacy, NDP got only 9.5% there last time

It's only a paper candidacy if you don't campaign, and he has already been door knocking.

Lots of times candidates with future ambitions start in a no hope riding to learn the ropes of campaigning and then next time around run in a more winnable one.  So might be a trial run to learn ropes of campaigning and then in 2025 run in a more winnable one.

You are confusing parties here. People don't tend to run for the NDP with "future ambitions" in mind (though, there are a few cases of that). His main motivator to run is to give the previous candidate a break.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Wow. I remember back then, Paul Martin was seen as being right wing enough, that otherwise Tory voters were considering backing him (and certainly, got the support of disgruntled PC voters). I am sure there was a worry that Harper was too right wing, due to his Reform/Alliance roots.

Of course, no one is accusing Trudeau of being right wing enough to attract Tory voters now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mike Harris has to be the most common name in Ontario

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

As somebody on the center left (a liberal but not a Liberal) I obviously agree with this, but the problem is we're not really the voters that the Conservative Party is targeting or has been part of their base for 17+ years.  So, this is our view, but is it the view of those voters?

I mean, I'm one of the more right wing Liberals so I could concievably vote Conservative, but it would require the Liberals to really screw up, so yeah not exactly an accessible vote.

To put a slightly different spin on Frank's take. Did you seriously consider voting for the Ford-Tories in 2018?

There's ~6-7% of the vote in Ontario that was willing to vote for a right wing populist leader in Ontario, recently enough that demographic churn wouldn't be an issue, that didn't vote Conservative or PPC in 2019. Those are the voters the Tories need to win back*, and whose vote decision process we really need to consider in the "what's compelling about the Tories" question.

*More or less, obviously the Fords are always going to have a different appeal in Toronto than the federal Tories.

I don't think you can draw a direct connection between Ford Nation and the federal Tories, Ford Nation ability to outperform the federal tories always relies on their ability to win minority communites in Toronto. On provincal level these voters are open to right-wing populist ideas regarding fiscal conservatives and the need to check left-wing ideas.
 
A conservative federal platform doesn't have the same resonance, there's no appetite for issues like western alienation that make up federal canadian conservative populism. The Liberals strong immigrant machine allows them to keep these communites on their sides along with being percived to be better on the issue of immigration which the conservatives can't outflank without abandoning their base.

On top of Ford Nation voters in Toronto (many of whom normally vote Liberal), a lot of Ford's gains (probably most of them) came from centre/centre-right Liberals voting strategically to stop the NDP. They're not going to vote Conservative if the NDP isn't a threat.

[Hatman 🍁]

On a totally different note:



I was looking through some Quebec election results (see 2014 above) and noticed that something puzzling.

The Chaudière-Appalaches region is one of the few parts of Quebec that the Tories do well in. I would expect that ADQ/CAQ to win it as well. However the Liberals seem to have had surprising strength here until CAQ's majority win. Anyone know why?

It might be because the Chaudiere-Appalaches region is federalist. They may have been suspicious of the CAQ, being led by a former Pequiste. Also, the Quebec Liberals are almost a right wing as the CAQ, so why bother voting for CAQ?

[Hatman 🍁]

Would only matter in a close race, but a lot of the BC Liberals seats are smaller (e.g. the two Peace River seats) and under the new redistribution laws, those seats have their protections removed and will increase in size, while the new seats are likely to be in the Lower Mainland. 8 think North Coast is the only safe NDP seat that is undersized.

I think the NDP is pushing for a more 'fair' map for the next redistribution. They should tread carefully though; there was a backlash when the NDP in Nova Scotia did that, getting rid of the Acadian and Black seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

And only 18% of Canadians live in the Prairies (i.e. the Canadian part of the Great Plains) - the country's only reliably conservative region.  Outside the Prairies/Great Plains, Canadian provinces border blue states. 

You forgot to mention that Southern Ontario is wedged between the three states famously won by Trump, and suffers many of the same economic issues. Driving through its country roads is no different from rural Michigan, aside from the better-paved roads. I suspect that if it weren't for Canada's better wealth redistribution, the region would have experienced the same level of despair that led to the Trump victories.

And SW Ontario still has a populist streak that has turned on its ancestral Liberal past in the last couple of decades.

[Hatman 🍁]

338Canada seat projection: https://338canada.com/

LPC: 163
CPC: 105
NDP: 37
BQ: 31
GPC: 2

Granted NDP support tends to be overestimated by polls, this is the exact scenario Trudeau should avoid like the plague. All this snap election drama for six extra seats and a minority government would be a bad outcome.

I hate to say this as an NDP supporter, but I believe the NDP is being very overestimated in polling. Many polls are showing the NDP in the lead with the under 35s, and most pollsters weight age based on the census rather than turnout estimates. So, the NDP's numbers are getting weighted higher than they should be, as their support is stronger among a group with a lower propensity to vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

338Canada seat projection: https://338canada.com/

LPC: 163
CPC: 105
NDP: 37
BQ: 31
GPC: 2

Granted NDP support tends to be overestimated by polls, this is the exact scenario Trudeau should avoid like the plague. All this snap election drama for six extra seats and a minority government would be a bad outcome.

I hate to say this as an NDP supporter, but I believe the NDP is being very overestimated in polling. Many polls are showing the NDP in the lead with the under 35s, and most pollsters weight age based on the census rather than turnout estimates. So, the NDP's numbers are getting weighted higher than they should be, as their support is stronger among a group with a lower propensity to vote.

Knowing very little about polling methodology, why is this? Wouldn't it be better to use turnout likelihood by age group instead of census numbers, since turnout is what actually determines election outcomes?

I think pollsters are hesitant to "make numbers up", so they just use the census. Turnout estimates are available from Elections Canada by age and gender, so pollsters can use that if they want, but not every elections agency provides that, and you're relying on the assumption that the turnout by age group is going to be the same for the next election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Usually when the NDP polls well, it's at the expense of the Liberals. It will be much harder for the NDP to pick up a lot of seats at the expense of the Tories. The Tories possibly dropping to third would be truly bizarre. You have to go back to Ontario 1990 for a parallel.

[Hatman 🍁]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

[Hatman 🍁]

I see the Independence Party wants to break free of Canadian spelling rules as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

We have not had a good person be a Tory Premier since Bill Davis.

[Hatman 🍁]

Notable NDP candidates:
Lisa Roberts, Halifax (local MLA)
François Choquette, Drummond (former MP)
Brigitte Sansoucy, Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot (former MP)
Djaouida Sellah, Montarville (former MP)
Ève Péclet, Outremont (former MP)
Malcolm Allen, Hamilton Mountain (former MP)
Tracey Ramsey, Essex (former MP)
Cheryl Hardcastle, Windsor-Tecumseh (former MP)
Wayne Stetski, Kootenay-Columbia (former MP)
Avi Lewis, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Seat to Sky Country (documentary filmmaker)

Special mention: Alex McPhee, Cypress Hills-Grasslands (mapmaker)

The NDP is really lacking in star candidates this time around, unfortunately.

[Hatman 🍁]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

For Tories I'd say (not counting former MPs):
- Doug Currie, former Liberal MLA, interestingly, running for the CPC in Charlottetown
- Eddie Orrell, local PC MLA running in Sydney-Victoria, narrowly lost in 2019
- Jake Stewart, PC MLA and cabinet minister running in Miramichi-Grand Lake
- Mel Norton, former Saint John mayor running in Saint John
- Yves Levesque, former mayor of Trois-Rivieres running in...well, Trois-Rivieres. He ran in 2019 and came close
- Melissa Lantsman, Tory strategist/comms person and frequent TV talking head running in Thornhill.
- Leslyn Lewis, CPC leadership contender running in Haldimand-Norfolk.
- Helena Konanz, former tennis player who interestingly represented the US running in South Okanagan. Don't think I'd call her a star candidate though, maybe if she had represented Canada more recently, but representing the US in the 80s won't ring any bells
- Dave Hayer, former BC Liberal MLA running in Fleetwood-Port Kells

Yeah, I really stretched the definition of star candidate for the Tories by including MLAs, I only did that for the Liberals for the pretty notable ones like Naqvi and Pupatello. If we're using the same standard for Liberals, I'd have to add:

- Heath McDonald, PEI Liberal MLA running in Malpeque
- Jenica Atwin in Fredericton, notable because you know why
- Nathalie Rochefort, former PLQ MNA running in Becancour-Nicolet
- Nancy Drolet, former hockey player and Olympic silver running in Rosemont-Petite Patrie
- Jenna Sudds, Ottawa city councillor running in Kanata-Carleton
- Steve Black, former Timmins mayor running in Timmins-James Bay
- Ben Henderson, Edmonton councillor running in Edmonton-Mill Woods

Hatman already covered the NDP using a similar standard. The Liberals have way more (and bigger) star candidates than the Tories and the NDP, but this is to be expected when the Liberals are in power and don't seem to be on the way out.

There are also a few municipal politicians running for the NDP, but they don't have Wikipedia articles, so I didn't include them.

[Hatman 🍁]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

- Heath McDonald, PEI Liberal MLA running in Malpeque
- Jenica Atwin in Fredericton, notable because you know why
- Nathalie Rochefort, former PLQ MNA running in Becancour-Nicolet
- Nancy Drolet, former hockey player and Olympic silver running in Rosemont-Petite Patrie
- Jenna Sudds, Ottawa city councillor running in Kanata-Carleton
- Steve Black, former Timmins mayor running in Timmins-James Bay
- Ben Henderson, Edmonton councillor running in Edmonton-Mill Woods

A pretty comprehensive list however it's worth mentioning that there will be an MLA vs. MLA battle in Miramichi-Grand Lake, which is probably one of the likeliest Tory gains anywhere (NB: that does not mean it is likely!).

On that point, it's entirely possible that the Tories don't gain a single seat this election, which is not as dramatic as it sounds. I really struggle to see viable targets at the moment with a good chance of flipping.

There are some long shots in ridings with no incumbents running:

Malpeque - Is this a Liberal seat or a Wayne Easter seat? Probably both. A strong Green candidacy could split the vote, but with the Greens in shambles, that probably ain't happening.
Miramichi
Trois-Rivieres - I doubt Levesque can gain on his 25% won last time. With the NDP no longer with the incumbency edge, their vote will go to the Bloc.
Kanata-Carleton - traditional Tory seat, but suburbanization is helping the Liberals.
Nunavut - Maybe if Aglukkaq runs
Yukon - The YP just won the PV in last year's territorial election, so there's still a conservative base there.

None of these are particularly likely pickups, though. I wonder if there are any ridings that have a lot of anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers or people opposed to border restrictions that might see a Tory bump? Niagara Falls comes to mind, but it's already held by the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP got stomped in Quebec in 2019, but even after that wipeout there was still a small number of ridings that weren't necessarily total lost causes. Are they trying to get the ex-MPs to run again or otherwise looking like they'll make any sort of effort in them, or has the whole province outside of Boulerice's seat been written off for the foreseeable future?

There was a newspaper article a few days ago about not many Quebec NDP MPs who lost in last election running again this time. There is François Choquette in Drummond and Brigitte Sansoucy in Saint-Hyacinthe. Guy Caron is trying for Rimouski Mayor in November.

It mentioned also the party does better where Québec Solidaire did best. Demographics of urban, young, does better among women, students. A goal to win 6 seats, targets Outremont, Laurier Ste-Marie, Beauport-Limoilou, Hochelaga, Sherbrooke.

Eve Péclet is a former MP in east end Montreal who will run in Outremont where she lives. I think there is one another former MP running

Since then Ruth Ellen Brosseau will make an announcement so it looks like she will run in Berthier-Maskinongé again.

Beauport is a strane NDP target and... they don't even have a candidate in Sherbrooke again. If Dusseault is running again, then sure...

I really can't see the NDP winning anything other than Rosemont at the moment. I suppose REB has an outside chance at Berthier - but she probably should've been campaigning the last 2 years to have a shot. And I guess they have a shot at Hochelaga, but the east end has been trending Liberal lately (provincially too). Hard to see the Liberals dropping there.

[Hatman 🍁]

What are the chances of the redistribution formula getting modified midway through the process?

Almost 100% certainty.

[Hatman 🍁]

Safe to say that Canada is a full out communist country now

Lol settle down there bud

Imagine if a conservative PM enacted the Emergency Act for the BLM protests.

That would have been fine? If the BLM protestors were occupying a city or doing something to threaten the economy. I wouldn't have had any issue with that.

For sure, like what they did in Seattle. BLM protests have never been particularly big or troublesome in Canada anyway. These occupier yahoos need to go though. I want my city back! 

[Hatman 🍁]

As a resident of Ottawa, shame on all of you who oppose the passing of the emergency act. It has allowed us to return the city to some semblance of normality. I am proud of the NDP's support of it, and it's important to note that their support is tentative, which is key. And Jack Layton would have supported it to, just ask his son or Olivia Chow. And Ed Broadbent supports it too. If the NDP didn't support it, I'd probably looking at a new political home for the first time in my adult life.

This isn't the War Measures Act. The charter has not been suspended. Stop whining about civil liberties. What about the civil liberties of Ottawans? They've been effectively suspended for the last 3 weeks.

[Hatman 🍁]

https://twitter.com/mattskubeCTV/status/1496176520846626817

Nope, no emergency here. Everything is clearly hunky dory in this city.

I'm not going to feel safe until all the yahoos are gone.

[Hatman 🍁]

So how does the "1%" in Canada vote?

Conservatives overperform with high income voters, but do worse among the university educated.

Liberals overperform with high education voters (i.e. "the Brahmin left" though I prefer "Brahmin liberal" - the rich vote for liberal not social democratic parties).

The 1% in Canada are overwhelmingly university educated, so it's interesting to know what prevails in voting patterns.

My guess is fairly evenly split between Liberals and Conservatives, but less likely to vote for other parties.

You can tell where the richest neighbourhoods in Toronto are, because they're the only parts of the city that consistently vote Conservative, though not overwhelmingly so. Bridle Path, Forest Hill and York Mills are blue blotches in a sea of red.

[Hatman 🍁]

I thought it anything, the NDP's support was less polarized by income than in the past when it was seen as more of a "socialist" party. I wonder if this is due to the increase in support among younger people?