Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Hatman 🍁]

Great account!  Of course he has no chance and he knows it (just giving Trevor a break!).  Cypress Hills was very anti-NDP historically and today rural Alberta and rural Saskatchewan are pretty much identical. 

Alex is great! I bought his gigantic Alberta map; it makes a great addition to my wall. I'm contemplating whether or not I should donate to his campaign. A waste of money sure, but I still want him to do as well as possible.

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprised nobody's brought up Quebec's unilateral amendment of the constitution.

I'm not surprised Trudeau supported this decision, he needs Legault voters in the next election. But he may just have opened up a can of worms.

I could see a right wing party, especially Jason Kenney in Alberta, seeking to declare their province with English as the only official language and getting a unilateral amendment to the constitution to get it declared as such.  

What is this, the early 1990s? Anti-French sentiment hasn't been that much of a thing lately.

[Hatman 🍁]

Municipal elections in Quebec are in November. There are going to be new faces in major cities because the incumbent is retiring in Quebec City, Laval, Gatineau and Longueuil. Montreal will have a familiar face but will it keep Valérie Plante or see the return of Denis Coderre.

A Léger poll of 500 people gives 46% of decided voters for Coderre, 34% for Plante and 19% for other candidates. Plante does best with younger voters. Coderre leads among non francophone voters 51% to 23%. Francophones are split, 44% Plante 42% Coderre.

44% are satisfied with the work of Plante, 50% not satisfied. 60% want a change of mayor while 24% would keep the mayor. Coderre is preferred on issues like economic recovery of the city, roads, municipal taxes, municipal services, and security. Plante is prefered for making arts accessible, public transit, green spaces and bike paths. 

Why is Plante so unpopular?

[Hatman 🍁]

I had earlier suggested Liberals being in power past 2030 and I actually think its more likely than many think for simple reason for Tories it is now majority or bust.  There is no way the NDP will in a minority ever prop up Tories even if they win more seats than Liberals.  They are well aware what has happened to similar parties like SPD in Germany, Dutch Labour, Irish Labour, and PASOK in Greece who all propped up right of centre governments and each party took a big hit after.  They even now have a term for that, called PASOK'd and NDP knows if they propped up Tories it would obliterate party.   In past we were much less polarized so a left wing party supporting a right wing as long as they made concessions was more acceptable than today.

So the issue becomes how do Tories win a majority.  Tories winning most seats is likely to happen before 2030, but winning majority becomes a real challenge.  Quebec outside of their strongholds in the Chaudiere-Appalaches and Quebec City region rarely elects many Tory MPs.  I guess if they have a native son like say Gerald Detell, maybe they breakthrough like Brian Mulroney did, but I doubt their Prairie base would ever tolerate a Quebec leader unless it was a crazy one like Maxime Bernier who wouldn't do well in Quebec.  So with Quebec, out of the picture, that means 2/3 of seats in rest of Canada and that is extremely difficult to do.  Not impossible, but only been done three times in last century (1958, 1984, and 2011) and first two involved big breakthroughs in Quebec.  1917 and 2011 only times Tories got a majority totally sidestepping Quebec.  1917 was over conscription crisis where Quebec and rest of Canada stood on opposite ends, but don't see anything on horizon likely to create similar divide. 

Yes I guess perhaps, if Tories win a plurality and NDP decides to prop up Liberals, public swings en masse next time to Tories to get change, but point being Tories face basically an insurmountable hill to win a majority much like Labour in UK.  Difference is Labour in UK at least is preferred by most smaller parties over Tories so they can form government by just reducing Tories to a plurality, total opposite of Canada.

And when the 2015 campaign started, you would have been laughed out of the room for predicting a Liberal majority.

I dunno, I predicted a Trudeau victory as far back as 2007, before he even was an MP

No. The next Liberal PM will be Justin Trudeau.

But I was laughed at at the time.

[Hatman 🍁]

I had earlier suggested Liberals being in power past 2030 and I actually think its more likely than many think for simple reason for Tories it is now majority or bust.  There is no way the NDP will in a minority ever prop up Tories even if they win more seats than Liberals.  They are well aware what has happened to similar parties like SPD in Germany, Dutch Labour, Irish Labour, and PASOK in Greece who all propped up right of centre governments and each party took a big hit after.  They even now have a term for that, called PASOK'd and NDP knows if they propped up Tories it would obliterate party.   In past we were much less polarized so a left wing party supporting a right wing as long as they made concessions was more acceptable than today.

So the issue becomes how do Tories win a majority.  Tories winning most seats is likely to happen before 2030, but winning majority becomes a real challenge.  Quebec outside of their strongholds in the Chaudiere-Appalaches and Quebec City region rarely elects many Tory MPs.  I guess if they have a native son like say Gerald Detell, maybe they breakthrough like Brian Mulroney did, but I doubt their Prairie base would ever tolerate a Quebec leader unless it was a crazy one like Maxime Bernier who wouldn't do well in Quebec.  So with Quebec, out of the picture, that means 2/3 of seats in rest of Canada and that is extremely difficult to do.  Not impossible, but only been done three times in last century (1958, 1984, and 2011) and first two involved big breakthroughs in Quebec.  1917 and 2011 only times Tories got a majority totally sidestepping Quebec.  1917 was over conscription crisis where Quebec and rest of Canada stood on opposite ends, but don't see anything on horizon likely to create similar divide. 

Yes I guess perhaps, if Tories win a plurality and NDP decides to prop up Liberals, public swings en masse next time to Tories to get change, but point being Tories face basically an insurmountable hill to win a majority much like Labour in UK.  Difference is Labour in UK at least is preferred by most smaller parties over Tories so they can form government by just reducing Tories to a plurality, total opposite of Canada.

And when the 2015 campaign started, you would have been laughed out of the room for predicting a Liberal majority.

I dunno, I predicted a Trudeau victory as far back as 2007, before he even was an MP

No. The next Liberal PM will be Justin Trudeau.

But I was laughed at at the time.

Not a bad prediction.  I think for future PMs, Chrystia Freeland is smartest bet.  As for next Tory leader who becomes PM, that is a tough one is no one out there who I think is obvious.  In fact I believe next Tory PM (if they ever win again) is probably someone few of us have ever heard of.  After all in 1996, how many people knew who Stephen Harper was?  Most Liberal PMs tend to be big names with long histories in party while Tories usually tend to be people who aren't as big a name. 

I agree, Freeland is the most likely next Liberal PM, and no one stands out for the Conservatives except Rona, but she doesn't seem to want to have the job. Most Tories are not palatable to the electorate, and the ones who are could never win a leadership race.

[Hatman 🍁]

No one "needs austerity"

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the already scheduled Fall elections that will have to be taken into account when calling a Fall federal election:

September 28: Newfoundland and Labrador municipal elections
October 18: Alberta municipal elections, Alberta Senate nominee election and 2021 Alberta equalization referendum
October 19: Northwest Territories municipal elections (taxed communities)
October 21: Yukon municipal elections
On or before October 25: Nunavut general election
November 7: Quebec municipal elections
December 13: Northwest Territories municipal elections (hamlets)

The big ones being of course the Alberta and Quebec municipal elections. Wonder if a December election would be preferred?

[Hatman 🍁]

I absolutely hate the fact that the Liberals have a 20 point lead among the "core left"

[Hatman 🍁]

So, I guess the Greens are back to being a de facto regional party now?

Well, they're trying to make a breakthrough in Ontario, but this floor crossing is not going to help that. I've previously stated that Toronto Centre is a toss up with Paul running there, but now I think the Liberals should be able to beat her. I guess it all depends on her performance in the debates.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP stalwart and foreign affairs critic Jack Harris is retiring:

https://jackharris.ndp.ca/news/statement-jack-harriss-political-future

One more seat for Liberals likely.  In fact with way things are going, Liberals will probably win every Atlantic seat save the three Baptist belt ridings in New Brunswick which I suspect Tories hold.

The NDP will be targeting Halifax, at least. I'm not sure it's winnable, but they're trying. Their candidate is a sitting MLA.

[Hatman 🍁]

We've talked before about how Anglo pols sound in French, particularly in the last two Tory leadership races. Turning the question around a bit, how do Trudeau, Blanchet and Bernier sound in French? How about Jean Chretien or Gilles Duceppe?

Obviously they're all fluent, but I'm curious about their class/regional aspects of their accents.

Bernier, Blanchet and Duceppe speak perfectly "educated" French (except when they purposely decide to sound working-class, which is not uncommon for Blanchet). Trudeau has a poor vocabulary and often uses anglicisms or false friends and wierd sentence structures. Jean Chretien spoke a working class French (sometimes sounding wierd due to his speech/face paralysis issue).

Didn't Chretien get some criticism for speaking a working-class/hick French and validating the supposed stereotypes Anglos have of Quebec?

I might be misremembering, but if true then I think it's hilarious because
1. Most English Canadians wouldn't be able to tell if you sound like a Parisian professor or a fisherman from Gaspe lol it's all jibberish to people who don't speak French

While this may be true, I find it incredibly easy to tell the difference between a Parisian accent and a Quebec accent, and I am in no way fluent in French. Anyone who makes even the slightest effort to train their ear will immediately be able to tell the difference. It's fairly easy to tell the difference when they're speaking English too (e.g. do they pronounce th's like z's or d's?)

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP stalwart and foreign affairs critic Jack Harris is retiring:

https://jackharris.ndp.ca/news/statement-jack-harriss-political-future

One more seat for Liberals likely.  In fact with way things are going, Liberals will probably win every Atlantic seat save the three Baptist belt ridings in New Brunswick which I suspect Tories hold.

The NDP will be targeting Halifax, at least. I'm not sure it's winnable, but they're trying. Their candidate is a sitting MLA.

They only lost by a dozen points and they have a star candidate. I'd certainly call it winnable, especially if they can squash the Greens.

I suppose it could be winnable. What's fascinating has been the collapse of the Tory vote in the last couple of elections there. I think the NDP can improve maybe 5-10 points (star candidate+Green collapse), but I think it will also require some of those red Tories to return home and stop voting Liberal. I don't necessarily see that happening.

[Hatman 🍁]

Malpeque will be an interesting riding to watch... Wayne Easter has been MP for so long, we don't know if it's a true Liberal riding or if it's a Wayne Easter riding.

In the last provincial election, the Tories swept 5/7 provincial ridings in Malpeque, but when it comes to PEI, comparing federal and provincial elections is like comparing apples and oranges. Federally, the Tories tend to do better in the west (Prince Co/Egmont), while provincially they do better in the east (Kings Co/Cardigan). Recent electoral referendums show that support for reform is stronger the closer you get to Charlottetown. If you use that as a proxy for how conservative a place is, then the reality is both Prince and Kings are more small-c conservative. Malpeque being more in the middle is influenced by its proximity to Charlottetown, and support for electoral reform did quite well there in the 2019, so the area leans more progressive. Anyway, I'm getting too #analysis here. Bigger factors are candidate strength for sure, and (this may be me hugely speculating) also who voters think will win the federal election. I think one of the reasons the Tories won Egmont in 2008 because voters there wanted a seat at the cabinet table for PEI.  It helped that Gail Shea was a sitting MLA - but she did run against a former Premier.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting how they include Visible Minority and Indigenous - though the latter seem way off.

Probably a low sample size for the latter. 4.9% of Canadians identify as indigenous, so even if they got a perfectly proportionate number of indigenous people on this survey, that's only 1412*0.049 = 69 indigenous respondents. Way too small a sample to get an accurate result, plus I'd imagine indigenous people are a little harder to reach (and typically care a lot less about Canadian politics) than the general population. I'd imagine the real NDP number is much higher.

A solid LPC lead among visible minorities with the CPC just below the national average (and the Bloc way behind) seems about right. Not a clue about people with disabilities, but I'd imagine the CPC does worse with them than the general population, since they're more likely to be on benefits.

Our Indigenous numbers are always "unexpected", so I think it has more to do with response rates and who identifies as Indigenous. A person who is a quarter Indigenous or Metis or something living in the suburbs is more likely to answer a poll than someone who is 100% Native living on a reserve or in downtown Winnipeg. The latter are the kinds of people we think of when we think of Indigenous, and they do indeed vote Liberal or NDP, but they're less likely to be represented in polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

A thought occurs to me:

The People's and Maverick parties are doing very well by fringe party standards, particularly in Alberta. Have there been any discussions between them about not running candidates against each other? It would be pretty silly if the Liberals or NDP won a seat put West off a three way right wing vote split

What ridings have a large progressive population AND a large right wing populist population for that to happen though?

[Hatman 🍁]

A thought occurs to me:

The People's and Maverick parties are doing very well by fringe party standards, particularly in Alberta. Have there been any discussions between them about not running candidates against each other? It would be pretty silly if the Liberals or NDP won a seat put West off a three way right wing vote split

What ridings have a large progressive population AND a large right wing populist population for that to happen though?

Back of the envelope, I can find Calgary Confederation, Edmonton Griesbach, and Edmonton Mill Woods.

It would require both a bad Conservative campaign and a disappointing NDP performance for these right-wing splits to lead to a Liberal win, though.

1.I don't think these far right wing parties will gain much support in urban Alberta.

2.Based on the polling, I think it's far more likely -in Edmonton- that the NDP will gain additional seats than the Liberals winning any riding in Alberta.

Correct. I said " large right wing populist population". The Liberal brand would have to recover in Alberta (but also collapse in Griesbach)  to make those ridings competitive due to vote splits.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is raw data on it https://innovativeresearch.ca/counting-seats-not-votes/?utm_campaign=CTM2021&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=CTM%202106%20Cluster%20Merge%20 .  Both CPC and NDP have lost a lot since 2011.  More interesting is Tories seeing biggest drop in Prairies (perhaps Kenney's unpopularity) thus may at least mean seat losses not as bad as a uniform swing would suggest since in Prairies they can drop 20 points and not lose many seats.

NDP seat numbers are always deflated between elections - it might be because people don't think strategically until actual campaigns, so NDP over-polls in non-NDP ridings and under-polls in their traditional territory during these pre-campaign periods. Back in June 2019, the NDP was *maybe* "winning" in one or 2 ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

https://www.quintenews.com/2021/06/30/sloan-to-seek-re-election/

Add Hastings-Lennox & Addington to the Liberal column, I guess.

Former H-L&A Liberal MP Mike Bossio is running for re-election too. He lost the riding to Sloan in 2019 by a 4.3pt/2247 vote margin. The CPC do not yet have a candidate there.

CPC numbers in Ontario are down as is, and Sloan will be splitting the right in that riding. This makes Bossio's path to victory a lot simpler.

I suspect Sloan gets under 5% so at end of day I doubt he makes much difference.  But yeah Liberals probably re-take it although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.  Heck I think O'Toole and Poilievre are likely to lose their seats and also see a few Liberal pickups in Alberta.  Saskatchewan probably only province they get shut out of, but could see NDP winning a seat or two there.

I think Sloan does a bit better than that, maybe in the 5-10% range, but the Tories will try to shore up most of the right-wing vote with a "vote Sloan, elect Bossio" message, which isn't such an unthinkable idea considering Bossio did win it in 2015.

although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.

Not sure about this statement. The Liberals won this riding in 2015, and lost quite narrowly in 2019. Even if Liberal numbers stay the same as in 2019, Sloan would only have to take around 5% of the CPC vote to give it to the Liberals. With current numbers this is a toss-up, Sloan or no Sloan. With him running, I think we can safely call it "Lean Liberal"

I guess more saying pretty rural and most of rural Ontario usually goes Conservative, but with how bad things are in Ontario now, I suspect some rural will flip not just this riding but a number of others too.  I've heard rumours internals on seats are absolutely devastating and worse than many in public realize.  Thus why my suggestion Tories don't form government in next decade is something I feel more and more confident about as each day goes by.  SoCon wing will take over if they lose bad enough so its why I don't see party coming back anytime soon.

It is a mostly rural riding yes, but the Kingston to Belleville corridor, basically the United Empire Loyalist heartland has trended Liberal big time in recent elections. I'm not 100% sure why; I suspect there's been a demographic shift - maybe upper middle class retirees moving into the area?

ETA: a cursory google search confirms that it is indeed an area that is experiencing a growth in the number of retirees moving there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does Canada have a true equivalent to U.S "forgotten cities" cities like Des Moines, Iowa (Population 215,000), Boise, Idaho (Population 226,000) or Fargo, North Dakota (Population 121,000) tier ones?

These are insignificant on a national level, and not part of the national consciousness. But they're large conurbations with hundreds of thousands of people in them.

Something I noticed that Canadian cities seem to have much more of a national profile than American ones. Where a city like Saskatoon (Population 273,000) is well known across Canada and a part of the national consciousness. Which I assume is because the population of the country is smaller which leads to less "forgotten cities" so to speak. And thus the urban hierarchy is much more pinpointed and concentrated in centers of prestige. In contrast to the United States where each city has less prestige collectively and is less of a part of the national consciousness and feels more forgotten and inconsequential.

Or maybe I'm completely wrong. What's your perspective on my observation?

A Canadian can answer your first question (North Bay? Red Deer? I don't know if there is one really good example) but I think you've answered your own question. Saskatoon is in the top 20 cities in Canada, but I think saying it is part of the national consciousness could be an exaggeration. Another point is that it is the largest city in one of only 13 regions, and that if Saskatoon was a US city, it would barely crack the top 100, in the same band as the cities you mentioned.

I immediately thought of North Bay, too. People confuse it with Thunder Bay all the time, even though it's only a 4 hour drive away (and Thunder Bay is 20 hours away). Of course, I'm biased, as my dad's from there.

Is this why rural eastern Ontario is and has always been Tory, as opposed to formerly Liberal rural western Ontario?

To generalize, Eastern Ontario is more "traditional" Anglo Canadian conservative, while Western Ontario is more socially conservative, evangelical and German/Dutch. 

Eastern Ontario also has more farmers as opposed to Western Ontario, which is dominated by (often unionized) resource industries like lumber and mining.

I'd also say it has to do with Irish Protestant heritage as well, at least in the Upper Ottawa Valley (again, thinking about my own ancestry here).

[Hatman 🍁]

Is it time to start using the phrase "ancestral Liberal" to describe areas like Kent County or Renfrew County the same way "ancestral Democrat" has become a popular term these days?

Huron, Bruce, Perth, Lambton, Grey and SDG also have some ancestral Liberal voting histories (especially in provincial elections). When you throw provincial history into the mix, you have to all account for the fact that the OLP used to be to the right of the PCs.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Prince George and Kamloops maybe urban but small cities, sort of akin to Barrie and Brantford which still vote Tory although could lose both, but tend to perform better than they do overall and only lose in these cities if they have a really bad election.  In Canada, about half the country live in metro areas over 500,000 so even if Tories or parties on right elsewhere just dominate all those under 100,000, not nearly enough to win.

For Burlington and Kanata-Carleton, relative to province as a whole they were a decade clearly to right of it while now more or less in line thus go whichever way Ontario goes whereas a decade ago generally voted to right of province.

Barrie and Brantford aren't as big-C Conservative as PG though (Kamloops may be comparable). Brantford's Liberal/NDP strength gets drowned out by the conservative Brant County surrounding it, and Barrie is split awkwardly between two rural areas. On its own, both cities would be swing LPC-CPC ridings, while Prince George on its own would still vote Conservative

Might be worth adding that Brantford voted NDP in the 2018 ontario election, but the surrounding Brant County voted Conservative enough to give the riding to the PCs. Barrie though seems to have voted PC that year, because it's slightly more conservative and the left was split three way there, whereas in Brantford it rallied around the NDP.

For Barrie, before it was split up it was a a bit of a bellwether. I don't think the Liberals won it in 2019, but they probably did in 2015. Provincially the won it in 2007 and 2014, and federally in 2004 when it was in one riding.

As for Kanata, talk about an ancestrally Tory area. This is what I was talking about when I mentioned my Irish protestant heritage. There's lots of Irish protestant descendants in the area, which are your typical ancestral Tory voters. Of course, Kanata itself is a rapidly growing suburb, anchored by tech companies, and is fairly diverse. It may have cemented itself as a safe Liberal riding (providing the Liberals are competitive of course), much to the chagrin of the rural population. I wonder if following the next redistribution, Kanata will be large enough for its won seat, and they'd put West Carleton in with Lanark or something?

[Hatman 🍁]

Problem is, there aren't many more moderate conservatives to steal. They're either too partisan to vote Liberal, or they're already voting Liberal. Sure there are former Liberal voters who are put off by Trudeau's wokism, and socially liberal voters who care more about lower taxes, so still vote Conservative, but to win over those people, the Liberals risk alienating a far greater amount of people on the left. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Re: Lanark, very integrated with Ottawa - 37% of Lanark workforce works in Ottawa.  But still very right-wing.  Not sure if anyone calculated 2019 results by county but Lanark generally sees the Conservatives at over 50%.

True and you see a few others like that.  Wellingotn-Halton Hills, York-Simcoe and Niagara West are all easily within commuting distance of major urban centre yet some of the most reliably conservative ridings.  But always question of how long that holds up.  Flamborough-Glanbrook (not old riding of Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborugh-Glanbrook) but current riding went solidly Tory and was quite safe for them, but now way more competitive.

At same time population density for Lanark County is much lower than most exurbs.  O'Toole and Polievre's riding both have population densities over 100 people per square km while Lanark county is only around 25 people per square km.  For country comparisons, Durham and Carleton similar population densities to France, Lanark County is more akin to Sweden in population density.  Or if using US states, Durham and Carleton similar to Pennsylvania, Lanark county more like Iowa.  After 2019, there was a chart on results by population density and did show a pretty strong correlation there.

I would put Poilievre's riding as 1/3 exurban (Greely, Manotick, Richmond), 1/3 suburban (Stittsville, Riverside South, Findlay Creek) and 1/3 rural (Osgoode, Rideau, Goulbourn).

O'Toole's a good mix of all three as well, as I wouldn't call Oshawa an exurb. 

Lanark is mostly exurban (and 0% suburban), but has a large rural population as well, which reduces its density.

But anyway, as you can see, exurbs still vote Tory.

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls like the Leger one could be advantageous for the Liberals. The closer voters perceive the race to be, the more ABC voting happens.

Absolutely and may help the Tories in Prairies too although much overall in sense that those further to right if Liberals have big lead may feel more comfortable voting PPC or Maverick party knowing Liberals are going to win anyways.  Whereas if close those supporting PPC and Maverick party likely come over to Tories to stop a Liberal win.  Obviously that has less impact than strategic voting on left, but there is that.  PPC was polling much higher than 1.6% it got and I think only because close a lot at last minute switched to Conservatives whereas if lead of either was more solid, PPC probably would have gotten closer to 4% mark.  And with O'Toole being more moderate, that could be even more devastating as if Tories stay where they are, I think you might see more further right feel its okay to vote Maverick or PPC thus pushing Tories into low 20s (combined right still 28-30%).

Side note: I wish pollsters would prompt for Maverick out west. If Western seperatists can poll 20% provincially in Alberta, we should probably be asking about them federally too.

I think we tried that in a poll, and they weren't getting much traction. Probably low brand recognition at this point.

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls like the Leger one could be advantageous for the Liberals. The closer voters perceive the race to be, the more ABC voting happens.

Absolutely and may help the Tories in Prairies too although much overall in sense that those further to right if Liberals have big lead may feel more comfortable voting PPC or Maverick party knowing Liberals are going to win anyways.  Whereas if close those supporting PPC and Maverick party likely come over to Tories to stop a Liberal win.  Obviously that has less impact than strategic voting on left, but there is that.  PPC was polling much higher than 1.6% it got and I think only because close a lot at last minute switched to Conservatives whereas if lead of either was more solid, PPC probably would have gotten closer to 4% mark.  And with O'Toole being more moderate, that could be even more devastating as if Tories stay where they are, I think you might see more further right feel its okay to vote Maverick or PPC thus pushing Tories into low 20s (combined right still 28-30%).

Side note: I wish pollsters would prompt for Maverick out west. If Western seperatists can poll 20% provincially in Alberta, we should probably be asking about them federally too.

I think we tried that in a poll, and they weren't getting much traction. Probably low brand recognition at this point.

Is it EKOS you work for? I forget.

yes