Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Hatman 🍁]

LPC and their godawful immigration platform

The last few weeks Canadian posters here have been saying this all the time and it just doesn't make any sense to me. Considering Canada's macroeconomic position I think it's essential.

Rich large anglophone countries should be in a strong position in a services-based economy, but they all have to complete with the United States, where wages and purchasing power are much higher. It is not within the power of any government to change this, so they have to find ways to compensate. Britain has an attractive world city and cultural power; Ireland has European Union membership; Australia has a favorable location relative to Asia and apparent freedom from the vagaries of the business cycle.

Canada will always have the issue of brain drain because American wages are so much higher and life in America is basically the same. At work I sit next to a Canadian citizen and I work closely with someone else who will move from Canada to the United States as soon as his work authorization comes through. Canada's only comparative advantage is loose immigration policy: the United States will always get the best talent, but Canada can compensate by drawing from a wider pool.

If I were a Canadian voter I would not vote Liberal at the next election under any circumstances, but immigration policy is something this government has gotten right.

This is all true of course, but people are seeing the downsides of immigration first hand (not enough housing, more traffic, urban sprawl), and people are motivated by their own personal experience over anything else.   

[Hatman 🍁]

RE: immigration, let's also not forget that multiculturalism is one of key tenets of the Canadian identity. It makes nativist anti-immigration arguments pretty tough from a nationalist perspective. Canadian nationalism is distinctively not right wing compared to the rest of the Western World.   

[Hatman 🍁]

There were rumours about Harper too, but they're still married as far I know.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if, considering Kinew's background, a "tough on crime" approach is more necessary to assuage concerns of having an Indigenous man in charge. Manitobans can be quite racist of course.

[Hatman 🍁]

Notley bleeds orange. No way she runs as a Liberal.

Nowhere mentioned in the article is if she speaks French though.

Anyway, she probably would do very well in a general election, though one wonders if the NDP would actually pick her. She may be too right wing for the base. FTR though, I would support her in a heartbeat despite me being quite a bit to her left.

[Hatman 🍁]

Notley bleeds orange. No way she runs as a Liberal.

Nowhere mentioned in the article is if she speaks French though.

Anyway, she probably would do very well in a general election, though one wonders if the NDP would actually pick her. She may be too right wing for the base. FTR though, I would support her in a heartbeat despite me being quite a bit to her left.

I can't imagine Notley winning the federal NDP leadership given her support for the fossil fuel sector (even if it isn't supportive enough for enough people in Alberta.)

Don't forget though of former NDP Premiers who later ran Federally, it's two to zero for the Federal Liberal Party (Ujjal Dosanjh and Bob Rae.)

Why just include those who ran for the Liberals?

The list also includes Tommy Douglas and Dave Barrett, so it's 1/4.

I still don't see Notley running as a Liberal. Remember, she was elected leader when the NDP was not the major non-Conservative party in the province. If she were an opportunist type, she would've joined the Alberta Liberals a long time ago.

[Hatman 🍁]

When an NDP leader makes gains, even small ones, they have historically been kept around. The party is not like the Conservatives who don't care about having a revolving door for their leadership.

Singh may be ineffectual at growing the party's support, but the party's numbers are not bad from an historical standpoint. During the Layton years, the party routinely polled even lower than now, but Layton was always able to increase the numbers during the election campaign. And Singh has done that too (though, to a lesser extent).

He is really missing the ball right now and is being quite ineffectual of course, but he's not going to get turfed until we see a seat loss. 

[Hatman 🍁]

When an NDP leader makes gains, even small ones, they have historically been kept around. The party is not like the Conservatives who don't care about having a revolving door for their leadership.

Singh may be ineffectual at growing the party's support, but the party's numbers are not bad from an historical standpoint. During the Layton years, the party routinely polled even lower than now, but Layton was always able to increase the numbers during the election campaign. And Singh has done that too (though, to a lesser extent).

He is really missing the ball right now and is being quite ineffectual of course, but he's not going to get turfed until we see a seat loss. 

He is not going to be turfed ever. Too many party members not caring about policy, but only about their brownies points for having a "racialised" party leader.

The party may not turf him, but he will resign if the party loses seats next election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there a thread on here on the reapportionment that will likely be in place for the next election?

If not, is there a general consensus on how reapportionment will affect party standings? Did any incumbents in particular get kind of screwed over? Where is the lost seat in Quebec?

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=467200.0

There is no lost seat in Quebec, they amended the law so it wouldn't happen.

And this something I repeated ad nauseam when it was announced Quebec would lose a seat: No, they absolutely will not.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think the NDP wants to be blamed for handing over the government to Skippy, so they're probably going to continue their timidity in their role as junior partners in the confidence and supply agreement.

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of the Irish, they brought their issues over here as well. I mean, the Fenians were involved in our first political assassination.

[Hatman 🍁]

There are huge swaths of single family homes in Toronto that can be converted to duplexes and small apartments (what urbanists call the "missing middle") that should be done long before touching the greenbelt. Only sociopaths want to live that far from the city anyway.

[Hatman 🍁]

There are huge swaths of single family homes in Toronto that can be converted to duplexes and small apartments (what urbanists call the "missing middle") that should be done long before touching the greenbelt. Only sociopaths want to live that far from the city anyway.

lmao

Build outward in the countryside

Like I said, sociopathic. We should be limiting sprawl as much as possible, especially in prime agricultural land.

(And just to be clear, I wasn't referring to people who live in rural areas or small towns, but people who live in exurbs and commute to cities.)

Also, I don't want to come off as being some NIMBY here, we should be building as much as possible within the cities to prevent sprawl.

[Hatman 🍁]

When I watched the news on Friday, to see how the Zelenskyy visit was going, I saw the standing ovation for a guy who fought the Russians in World War II and I was like.. wait a second here... Needless to say I wasn't surprised this became an issue.  I wish I said something on Friday.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yaroslav Hunka now has a Wikipedia page, so you can find out more about him there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaroslav_Hunka

[Hatman 🍁]

https://twitter.com/DrJacobsRad/status/1706320914021835105

I have been unable to find exit poll data on how Canadian Jews typically vote.

How do Canadian Jews typically vote? If they vote for Conservatives typically, this might not make much a difference. If they vote for Liberals, however, this could persuade enough Canadian Jews to flip key seats across the country, especially if the 2025 Canadian Election is close.

I've done quite a bit of polling on this. One of my clients, JSpace Canada should be publishing a poll of Jewish Canadians soon which included a vote intention question. But to sum, Jews in Quebec are Liberal leaning and in Ontario they are Tory leaning. This is clear when you look at how Mount Royal and Thornhill vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Harper Conservatives made big inroads among Orthodox Jews, who previously had a low voter turnout. An interesting pattern in the GTA is that the Jewish community was clustered along Bathurst Street, and the more this community became upwardly mobile, the more it migrated northwards along Bathurst Street. These turned a few seats in North York and the York Region into play. The Jewish community in Montreal (anecdotally) became smaller but more Orthodox with the rise of Quebec nationalism. You can spot where they are clustered based on poll-by-poll maps, but they are too small to affect any seats.

Most non-Orthodox Jewish Canadians behave as one would expect: middle to upper middle class, with a somewhat socially liberal bent. They would be "naturally" Liberal-leaning voters, but could turn Conservative if the conditions are there.

But, anyway, I think the mood has shifted enough that Trudeau can be compared to the famous lettuce.

If Rota resigns what are the odds it flips in a by election? Seems like a fairly swingy liberal leaning seat.

If he resigns, he may still keep his seat in Parliament. But, the riding is somewhat safe Liberal seat, though the Tories barely eked out a win in 2011 (though, it was so close, after redistribution the Liberals still would've won it on the new boundaries). However, provincially it's a safe PC seat right now, but that's more to do with the MPP being the former mayor of North Bay.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Harper Conservatives made big inroads among Orthodox Jews, who previously had a low voter turnout. An interesting pattern in the GTA is that the Jewish community was clustered along Bathurst Street, and the more this community became upwardly mobile, the more it migrated northwards along Bathurst Street. These turned a few seats in North York and the York Region into play. The Jewish community in Montreal (anecdotally) became smaller but more Orthodox with the rise of Quebec nationalism. You can spot where they are clustered based on poll-by-poll maps, but they are too small to affect any seats.

Most non-Orthodox Jewish Canadians behave as one would expect: middle to upper middle class, with a somewhat socially liberal bent. They would be "naturally" Liberal-leaning voters, but could turn Conservative if the conditions are there.

But, anyway, I think the mood has shifted enough that Trudeau can be compared to the famous lettuce.

If Rota resigns what are the odds it flips in a by election? Seems like a fairly swingy liberal leaning seat.

If he resigns, he may still keep his seat in Parliament. But, the riding is somewhat safe Liberal seat, though the Tories barely eked out a win in 2011 (though, it was so close, after redistribution the Liberals still would've won it on the new boundaries). However, provincially it's a safe PC seat right now, but that's more to do with the MPP being the former mayor of North Bay.

In 2021 this is one of those seats where Conservatives + PPC were greater than the winning liberals. Obviously there's more going on, but given what's going on in national polls (and not just most -CPC ones) it would be a flip, especially given the circumstances of a hypothetical resignation, unless the remaining Libs and NDP voters consolidate thanks to unique by-election circumstances and attention.

No Green Party candidate, too - though I bet the PPC's over performance was due to there being no Green candidate (yes, such voters exist)

There is some realignment going on in Northern Ontario, and Nipissing-Timiskaming may yet be a Tory target. Its main industries are different than the rest of the north (hence why the NDP is weaker), but it is economically stagnant just like the rest of the region.

[Hatman 🍁]

https://twitter.com/DrJacobsRad/status/1706320914021835105

I have been unable to find exit poll data on how Canadian Jews typically vote.

How do Canadian Jews typically vote? If they vote for Conservatives typically, this might not make much a difference. If they vote for Liberals, however, this could persuade enough Canadian Jews to flip key seats across the country, especially if the 2025 Canadian Election is close.

I've done quite a bit of polling on this. One of my clients, JSpace Canada should be publishing a poll of Jewish Canadians soon which included a vote intention question. But to sum, Jews in Quebec are Liberal leaning and in Ontario they are Tory leaning. This is clear when you look at how Mount Royal and Thornhill vote.

Basically, if Jews in Quebec start leaning Tory after this, that could be a major problem for Trudeau. If this happens, could we essentially say sayonara to Trudeau's chances of winning another term?

I mean, Jews don't make up a large enough population in Quebec to really make much of a difference. Even in Mount Royal, it would be an uphill battle for the Tories to swing it, considering it's a safe Liberal seat and it's still a majority non Jewish.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm not sure the RGV comparison makes sense, entirely. Despite its demos, Newfoundland is not a particularly socially conservative place - and I think this has made it difficult in the past for Conservatives to make inroads there (in addition to the perception that the Tories hate poor people). Of course, with the Tories shifting their rhetoric in a more populist direction, this has helped them make said inroads.

[Hatman 🍁]

In addition to Champagne, I've heard Mark Carney and Melanie Joly as possible successors. I can't see Carney taking over a sinking ship though.

[Hatman 🍁]

In addition to Champagne, I've heard Mark Carney and Melanie Joly as possible successors. I can't see Carney taking over a sinking ship though.

I'm lost at why Joly's career has advanced at much as it has. Wasn't she embarrassed on a French news show as Heritage Minister, and in the aftermath of that she went from "Minister responsible for the Federal Economic Development Initiative for Northern Ontario" direct to "Minister of Foreign Affairs" a few months before the Russians invaded Ukraine. If you want to say "she deserves this", fine, tell me why.

She was imcompetent as Heritage minister and a laughingstock here in Quebec.
She did, however, saw that the Quebec Liberal campaign was collasping in 2021 and proposed ideas to fix, took over (from utterly useless David Lametti) and stopped the Liberals from losing multiple seats in Quebec in that election. She was then rewarded with the position of Foreign Affairs minister, where she does a way better job (my center-left Quebec Nationalist family actually think she is doing a good job, which is rare praise from them about a Liberal politician).

In addition to what others have said, there is the elephant in the room here, that she is quite attractive (at least for a politician). Don't discount good looks when it comes to popularity, it certainly helped Trudeau in 2015.

[Hatman 🍁]

Random thought of the day. I'm by no means the biggest advocate for electoral reform (yes, FPTP is a deeply flawed system at best, I just don't think switching to PR would make politics all that much better when it comes to the most important issues).

The idea isn't to "make politics better", but rather more fair and representative.

[Hatman 🍁]

1 in 7 NDP voters would vote for Trump if in US. 

Who are these people? I know one, personally - my step grandmother in law. She's a Serbian immigrant. Thinks the NDP are the party of the working people, but likes Trumps anti-war stance. I get the impression this is not an uncommon view among Eastern Europeans.

[Hatman 🍁]

The pharmacare plan that has been introduced in Parliament is likely going offload costs to the provinces that they cannot currently afford because they spent the last few years spending money on mitigating COVID. Not to mention that our population growth levels are currently unsustainable, so it will be difficult to measure how much money will be needed to cover everyone. I oppose any new social programs until we get back to reasonable immigration levels and we can be fiscally responsible about it.

Pharmacare coverage may reduce health-care costs: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/free-prescription-drugs-could-reduce-overall-health-care-costs-in-canada-study-1.6418350

But regardless, it should be covered because it's the right thing to do. If my insulin wasn't covered by my employer, this would be a Godsend. I shouldn't be punished because I got the short end of the stick in the genetic lottery.