NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[Hatman 🍁]

Feeling good about my prediction from a few months ago that Jagmeet would win.

[Hatman 🍁]

Agreed it will be between Singh and Angus, with Ashton in third.

[Hatman 🍁]

Agreed it will be between Singh and Angus, with Ashton in third.

Has as improved at all after her disastrous 2012 performance, or is it just a desire to have a left-wing leader following someone closer to the center?

She is the candidate of the left, and so will get the support of the more left wing members (beyond the tiny socialist caucus). She is definitely the candidate of SJW tumblerism, I think her handling of "culturally misappropriating" Beyonce is proof of that.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Ignoring the possible dogwhistling, Angus may be trying to channel Bernie Sanders' substance of style approach.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP debates are always cordial affairs. I was actually surprised when there was some 'debate' coming from the outsider, Pat Stogran.

[Hatman 🍁]

Niki Ashton is pregnant; due in November. She'll definitely be 'showing' come vote time. I've never heard of a candidate being pregnant in this kind of a high profile election. This will probably help her, right?

[Hatman 🍁]

More from Charlie Angus' Facebook.  What is problematic is that he isn't speaking up against what is being said by his supporters.  Difficult stuff to read.

Are there more examples of this?

[Hatman 🍁]

Niki Ashton is pregnant; due in November. She'll definitely be 'showing' come vote time. I've never heard of a candidate being pregnant in this kind of a high profile election. This will probably help her, right?

I imagine it might be seen as possibly distracting to her duties should she become leader, not spending time rebuilding the NDP. Nobody will say that openly though, I'm sure. She's not going to be in the top 2 anyway.

She will very likely be in the top 3; she is popular among younger supporters and as the only woman in the race, will get a bump from that as well (pun intended).

There is the possibility of underground gossip of course, because according to Wikipedia, she just got divorced a few months ago. I'm glad I haven't seen any yet; everyone is being quite respectful.

[Hatman 🍁]

Niki Ashton is pregnant; due in November. She'll definitely be 'showing' come vote time. I've never heard of a candidate being pregnant in this kind of a high profile election. This will probably help her, right?

I imagine it might be seen as possibly distracting to her duties should she become leader, not spending time rebuilding the NDP. Nobody will say that openly though, I'm sure. She's not going to be in the top 2 anyway.

She will very likely be in the top 3; she is popular among younger supporters and as the only woman in the race, will get a bump from that as well (pun intended).

There is the possibility of underground gossip of course, because according to Wikipedia, she just got divorced a few months ago. I'm glad I haven't seen any yet; everyone is being quite respectful.

That is a rather odd situation, but I'm sure people will be respectful of it. Perhaps if she was in contention to win, more ugliness would come out, but still.

Gossip aside, how would she lead a political party during the latter stages of pregnancy and post partum? Childbirth isn't exactly day surgery, especially at her age.

What? She's not that old.

Any criticisms along those lines, DC, would fuel a feminist backlash, which would be a great narrative for someone like Ashton, so no one running against her in the NDP is going to even bring up the subject.

It will mean some adjustments in her campaign, but she has the best excuse in the world, because no one will fault her for it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh yeah, like Grenier is going to know anything about the NDP.

Him working for the CBC is greatest reason to privatize the CBC there is.

[Hatman 🍁]

And it's hardly just Conservatives who think so:

What % of Americans wouldn't vote for a Black person before 2008?

[Hatman 🍁]

In 1999, Gallup had 95 percent of Americans willing to vote for a Black president. Im surprised it was that high.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/155285/Atheists-Muslims-Bias-Presidential-Candidates.aspx?utm_source=tagrss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=syndication

oh, wow. I'm sure if Jagmeet is elected leader, and people get to know him, the numbers will go up. I have trouble believing more than 1/3 of NDP voters wouldn't vote for a Sikh. Maybe most of them are in Quebec?

[Hatman 🍁]

Sad to see him go, but makes sense. Case in point, I wasn't intending to support him, even though I used to work for him.  I know he's a great guy and a very qualified, but he isn't very exciting.

[Hatman 🍁]

junk poll!

[Hatman 🍁]

It depends on the kinds of coalitions set--for instance, an Angus/Singh deal could pin down both ends.

Also, remember that Singh's overperformance potential is not so much in Vancouver and Toronto, as it is in Surrey and Brampton.

Surrey and Brampton for the minority voters, but I think DC was thinking about the promiscuous progressives coming back home in the bobo ridings of downtown Toronto.

[Hatman 🍁]

Though Angus has an advantage *there*, too, through his musical past (and present)...

Potentially. His lack of ability in French will hurt him in Quebec though. Though Singh will not do that well in Quebec either (due to "secularism"), but could be strong in the more tolerant Montreal area.

[Hatman 🍁]

So why isn't Singh "catching fire", so to speak? He seems like an obvious front-runner for the NDP leadership, especially since he seems to have the charisma that the other candidates lack.

Oh, he is catching fire. Polling will not capture any of the new members Singh is picking up. You can tell he is doing well from his fundraising (which is probably a better marker for his support than any actual polling). Mainstreet's poll was done with membership lists (just for a few provinces), which were obtained dubiously and from big donors. Hence why I said "junk poll!"

[Hatman 🍁]

lots of BC endorsements freed up with Julian out of the game.

[Hatman 🍁]

Singh is the only one I can see taking seats off the Liberals. That's enough for him to get my support.

This is why I support him too. Though I acknowledge his candidacy could be a risky proposition, but the NDP needs to throw a hail Mary right about now.

[Hatman 🍁]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

[Hatman 🍁]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

I think Jenny Kwan would rather enjoy the much higher paycheque and prestige being an MP offers. She also has the seat for as long as she wants, which could reasonably be decades. Melanie Mark, Kwan's successor, also isn't going anywhere either, besides maybe the Premier's office one day.

I could see some of the Windsor MP's vacating a seat for Singh, and him winning, but none of them  seem old enough to want to retire.

Singh does have some Windsor roots, but I wouldn't call either seat safe, so it would be a risk.

Singh is better off waiting for the next election. The embarrassment of losing a by-election a la John Tory would make leading the party impossible. However, if any Brampton or Surrey based riding suddenly become vacant, it would be too tempting not to contest.

[Hatman 🍁]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

Edmonton Strathcona has been NDP by around 15 points in both 2011 and 2015, though that might have more to do with Linda Duncan than the NDP. North Island-Powell River has been NDP except for a brief dalliance with Reform in 1993 and Rachel Blaney won by almost 10,000 votes. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is extremely safe, but again that might have more to do with Nathan Cullen (and not that we'd want Cullen to resign for Singh anyway). Vancouver Kingsway, Windsor-Tecumseh, Windsor West. Christine Moore held off a huge surge to the Liberals and still managed to win by eleven points in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. Berthier-Maskinongé, and of course Outremont. Caron's ridiculously named seat, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie...

Perhaps "countless" was the wrong word. "More than 2003 when the NDP couldn't afford to lose a single MP."

Regardless, it's a bad idea for Singh not to seek a seat immediately after winning the leadership if he indeed does win the leadership. He could always pull a Joe Clark and just hold the seat until the next election before running in his home riding.

Actually, post-1993, NI-Powell River (or some such equivalent) only went NDP in 2006 and 2015.  Most of the rest you mention are indeed "candidate-specific" (uh, how is Berthier-Maskinongé *not* because of Ruth-Ellen Brosseau?) or easily swayable to other parties--Outremont would probably have gone Liberal if not for Mulcair last time.

And conversely, the PCs were in as much of if not more of a "can't put any seat at risk" situation when Joe Clark was byelected in Kings-Hants.

True enough although I think the federal Liberals agreeing not to run a candidate against him probably played a big role as the NDP at that time was very weak in rural Nova Scotia (largely Halifax and Cape Breton Island then) and the Canadian Alliance was never popular in Atlantic Canada so they were no threat.  Had the federal Liberals put up a candidate then they might have not done so, and my suggestion on ipolitics was the Conservatives and Liberals should as a courtesy agree not put up a candidate against him (there is precedence for this, Chretien in Beausejour, Stockwell Day in Okanagan-Coquihalla, Stephen Harper in Calgary Southwest, and Joe Clark in Kings-Hants) so long as it is an existing NDP riding (If he runs in a vacant Liberal or Tory held riding then they will put up a candidate).

Why should the Liberals and Conservatives afford him a courtesy that the NDP has never afforded either party? The NDP always runs in these kinds of by-elections, and should expect no different from their rivals.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think it's fair to compare Ashton with Sanders or Corbyn. She's the candidate of SJW tumblr activists, and I think their kind of rhetoric is damaging to the party, and is damaging to the left as a whole.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think it's fair to compare Ashton with Sanders or Corbyn. She's the candidate of SJW tumblr activists, and I think their kind of rhetoric is damaging to the party, and is damaging to the left as a whole.

She comes across to me as a right-winger's parody of what a left-wing activist would sound like.

How hilarious is it that on the very day I made that post Ashton apologizes for calling Quebec a  “diverse, multicultural society".

This is why Trump won, folks.

[Hatman 🍁]

I doubt Olivia will make an endorsement, though I could see Ed making one.

But yeah, if the Singh campaign is telling the truth about recruiting those new members (and the Ontario #s back that up), then I think it's safe to say he will be the front runner going in. Also, considering the membership tripled, then all membership-list based polling will be useless.