NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[Hatman 🍁]

Topp endorses Caron.

Kiss of death. Poor Caron.

[Hatman 🍁]

Could also be Nathan Cullen.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone remember Pat Stogran? who was in the NDP leadership race for about a hot minute then had a tantrum at the party?... He just endorsed Charlie Angus. Good?, bad?

irrelevant

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is the breakdown

Singh: 34.9%
Angus: 33.1%
Ashton: 18.5%
Caron: 13.5%

Singh isn't doing well on people's second preferences though, and would probably lose if these numbers are to be believed. But this is all good news for Singh, as I reckon his support is much lower in these polls than in reality.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, there will be a lot of so called "pundits" (read: morons) who will say that he has to run because OMG IT IS SO IMPORTANT FOR THE LEADER TO HAVE A SEAT.

Of course, the impending Outremont by-election will be a huge test for him. A lot of the so-called pundits think it is a natural Liberal riding, and maybe it is, but if the NDP is to remain relevant in Quebec with a let's say... cosmopolitan... leader like Singh, it needs to do well in the Montreal area, which will be more tolerant to his shall we say... overt displays of his religion. I don't buy the hype that Singh will be toxic in Quebec, but I do think he will not be popular in rural Quebec, but that is not to say he would not be in Montreal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Singh is supposed to make a "big announcement" tomorrow.  May be an Ed Broadbent endorsement?

[Hatman 🍁]

Quite predictably, Star endorses Singh.

Very good article; sums up why I support Singh over the other candidates.

Here are the 20 Sikh-iest ridings in Canada, along with their results from the 2015 federal election.

Electoral District	Prov	SIKH%	LIB%	CONS%	NDP%	GRN%	OTH%
Surrey--Newton	BC	45.1	56.0	15.7	26.1	2.2
Brampton East	ON	34.0	52.3	23.5	23.0	1.1
Surrey Centre	BC	23.8	45.1	19.8	30.1	3.5	1.6
Brampton North	ON	21.7	48.4	33.0	16.5	1.9	0.2
Brampton South	ON	19.9	52.1	35.0	10.7	2.2
Fleetwood--Port Kells	BC	19.4	46.9	29.3	21.5	2.4
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon	BC	17.4	37.2	34.9	20.5	5.1	2.2
Brampton West	ON	15.3	55.9	30.1	12.4	1.6
Calgary Skyview	AB	15.1	45.9	39.8	8.0	1.9	4.5
Abbotsford	BC	14.3	32.8	48.3	13.7	5.0	0.2
Vancouver South	BC	12.5	48.8	33.9	14.0	2.6	0.8
Edmonton Mill Woods	AB	12.4	41.2	41.1	12.8	2.2	2.7
Delta	BC	11.4	49.1	32.8	14.9	3.2
Mississauga--Malton	ON	10.9	59.1	26.4	12.3	1.7	0.5
Brampton Centre	ON	9.6	48.6	33.7	15.1	2.1	0.4
Etobicoke North	ON	8.5	62.4	23.0	12.4	1.2	0.9
Cloverdale--Langley City	BC	8.4	45.5	34.8	15.7	4.1
Steveston--Richmond East	BC	6.0	45.1	38.5	12.1	3.7	0.6
Winnipeg North	MB	5.6	68.9	15.3	13.4	2.4
New Westminster--Burnaby	BC	5.6	29.0	20.0	43.5	4.7	2.9

Well, the top three on that list should easily swing to the NDP in 2019 with Singh as leader. The next four or five would be targets as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

good riddance if they're separatists. I don't mind nationalists in my party, but if you want your province to separate, then you do not belong in the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Quite predictably, Star endorses Singh.

Very good article; sums up why I support Singh over the other candidates.

Here are the 20 Sikh-iest ridings in Canada, along with their results from the 2015 federal election.

Electoral District	Prov	SIKH%	LIB%	CONS%	NDP%	GRN%	OTH%
Surrey--Newton	BC	45.1	56.0	15.7	26.1	2.2
Brampton East	ON	34.0	52.3	23.5	23.0	1.1
Surrey Centre	BC	23.8	45.1	19.8	30.1	3.5	1.6
Brampton North	ON	21.7	48.4	33.0	16.5	1.9	0.2
Brampton South	ON	19.9	52.1	35.0	10.7	2.2
Fleetwood--Port Kells	BC	19.4	46.9	29.3	21.5	2.4
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon	BC	17.4	37.2	34.9	20.5	5.1	2.2
Brampton West	ON	15.3	55.9	30.1	12.4	1.6
Calgary Skyview	AB	15.1	45.9	39.8	8.0	1.9	4.5
Abbotsford	BC	14.3	32.8	48.3	13.7	5.0	0.2
Vancouver South	BC	12.5	48.8	33.9	14.0	2.6	0.8
Edmonton Mill Woods	AB	12.4	41.2	41.1	12.8	2.2	2.7
Delta	BC	11.4	49.1	32.8	14.9	3.2
Mississauga--Malton	ON	10.9	59.1	26.4	12.3	1.7	0.5
Brampton Centre	ON	9.6	48.6	33.7	15.1	2.1	0.4
Etobicoke North	ON	8.5	62.4	23.0	12.4	1.2	0.9
Cloverdale--Langley City	BC	8.4	45.5	34.8	15.7	4.1
Steveston--Richmond East	BC	6.0	45.1	38.5	12.1	3.7	0.6
Winnipeg North	MB	5.6	68.9	15.3	13.4	2.4
New Westminster--Burnaby	BC	5.6	29.0	20.0	43.5	4.7	2.9

Well, the top three on that list should easily swing to the NDP in 2019 with Singh as leader. The next four or five would be targets as well.

Do we know how Sikh's voted in 2015? I would assume they are more Liberal than the average voter, but they were overwhelmingly Liberal (e.g 80%  Liberal instead of 45%), the NDP would presumably have more room for gains.

Too small a population to properly poll, but I'd imagine they went about (at least) 50% Liberal, but probably went NDP in 2011.

[Hatman 🍁]

Singh will run in Brampton East.

Not a surprise. He would have won the riding in 2011 if it had its current borders, so it is an even better fit than his larger provincial riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

[Hatman 🍁]

The more I think about it, the more I am convinced he will be the next NDP leader.

I will now accept my accolades.

[Hatman 🍁]

At least one the Canadian branches of Shiromani Akali Dal was putting in the hours for Singh, which was a sure sign that this was over.

While there is no doubt that registering a lot of Sikhs to vote for him helped him win on the first ballot, there is no doubt in my mind he would've won anyways. Not only did he have the most support in caucus, he had the support of most of the party establishment (this was clear to me last Summer). And he was leading in those crappy Mainstreet polls which would not have included any of those new members.

[Hatman 🍁]

What a beautiful result! Finally a true leader of the NDP

Still gonna vote Green though, right?

Any riding by riding results?

No, the NDP does not care about data nerds unfortunately

[Hatman 🍁]

Manitoba being low makes sense, as they just had a leadership election as well, so a good chance many people there didn't care about the federal leadership, and might even be federal Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, a couple of polling outfits had the NDP at 15% before Singh won. Personally, I'm predicting at least a 5% bounce. Anything less would be a disappointment.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, a couple of polling outfits had the NDP at 15% before Singh won. Personally, I'm predicting at least a 5% bounce. Anything less would be a disappointment.

Wouldn't that benefit the Conservatives as I doubt many Conservatives will go over to the NDP, it will probably be mostly Liberals, although perhaps Conservatives will fall due to NDP picking up some undecided voters.  Should be interesting to see what happens.  That being said it is tough for opposition leaders to get much attention so I think the next election is when people will really get to know Singh.

If it is 5, my guess is it will be 3 points from the Liberals, 2 points from the Greens or something like that. Maybe more, to compensate for a point or two loss to the BQ? Anyways, this is just speculation of course; but the NDP hasn't been this relevant (as in having a lot of good news that has reached a lot of households) since the Alberta election, which saw quite a bounce for the NDP in the polls. But as Holmes said, I will "prepare for disappointment".

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting poll from Angus Reid: http://angusreid.org/new-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh/

Some highlights:

-69% could vote for a Sikh man who wears a turban & kirpan (only 53% of Quebecers)
-78% of 2015 NDP voters could so so (higher than the Liberals!)
-Singh has a +34% approval rating!! (60-26)
-54% think Singh's religion will hurt the NDP's electoral chances [good thing most Canadians aren't political strategists] 

Basically, there is room to grow for the NDP under Singh, but not so much in Quebec

[Hatman 🍁]

I figure the NDP can make some inroads in Montreal. We saw a big uptick in turnout to kick the PQ out in Montreal in 2014 because of the charter. This is why the coming Outremont by-election will be a big deal for the NDP.