Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow.

Cabinet ministers get state funerals right? But I think they have to be current cabinet ministers. (Just missed the honour by a month... how eerie is that?)

Nonetheless, very sad news.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if Flaherty's wife will run?

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if Flaherty's wife will run?

It must be shock to suddenly lose a spouse like this - I wonder more whether she might not run federally OR provincially (given that if there is an Ontario election this spring she'd have to run for re-election)

It wouldn't be the first time a wife ran to fill her husband's seat after he dies.

[Hatman 🍁]

Should the NDP be happy about Vaughan's candidacy?

[Hatman 🍁]

If you're young and you live in a Trinity-Spadina condo, you live there to be close to the night life, or at least you go there being tolerant of it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another question- Are Toronto Wards simply half-ridings?

Yes. Also, I would suppose than there will be a rewarding before 2018 elections.

Probably. They're done more haphazardly in Ontario, we don't change them every 4 years like in Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another question- Are Toronto Wards simply half-ridings?

Yes. Also, I would suppose than there will be a rewarding before 2018 elections.

Probably. They're done more haphazardly in Ontario, we don't change them every 4 years like in Quebec.

We don't change them every 4 years. Yes, they must be reviewed every 4 years, but no change is usually done if the numbers are good enough. We also had cases where the city kept its map, but it was refused by Elections Quebec.

OK, a review must happen every 4 years. That doesn't happen in Ontario. Ottawa last changed its boundaries in 2006, and Toronto in 2000.

[Hatman 🍁]

That post is probably the worst Liberal hackness piece I ever read.

I've never read anything by KoK that was Liberal hackery before. So if it is Liberal hackery, he must be a recent convert to Trudeaumania.

[Hatman 🍁]

In fact, I feel betrayed by Vaughan and I've spoken to others who may need to start a support group.

But does it matter in the end?  No.  Snagging Vaughan was a brilliant move by the Liberals. 

... This is how i feel exactly... It just means the NDP now has to work that much harder, we do like to make a big deal about campaigning as the underdog

They seem to not be on that shtick anymore. All the NDP branded material I've seen lately predominately says 'Official Opposition' underneath the party name, in case anyone forgot

Perhaps the NDP can play both cards, as they both would be true. "We're the official opposition! But, because of Trudeau, we're also the underdogs!"

[Hatman 🍁]

If Vaughan won, would he have a chance under the new boundaries next year?

Of course; both successor ridings are less NDP friendly.

[Hatman 🍁]

Heh, this makes things a little weird, where we have by-elections on the old boundaries happening after nomination races on the new boundaries. Maybe Freeland should be running in Trinity-Spadina to get a foot hold in the new riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

52-31. Good job, NDP. Let's pick some white guy no one has ever heard of to fill the shoes of Olivia Chow. Why weren't we courting Vaughan?

[Hatman 🍁]

Not to say Cressy's not a good candidate, but clearly Vaughan is some sort of super star.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it's too bad then if Vaughan wins. It's really bad optics for the NDP to lose the riding, which has historically been one of their better ridings. If the NDP can't win in their traditional areas, then the media will have a field day.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it's too bad then if Vaughan wins. It's really bad optics for the NDP to lose the riding, which has historically been one of their better ridings. If the NDP can't win in their traditional areas, then the media will have a field day.

The NDP has been down that road before when they lost the even more supersafe traditional stronghold of Winnipeg North to the Liberal in 2010 under similar circumstances...the media had a field day for a few days and then 5 months later the NDP won 103 seats and the Liberals were reduced to 34.

True, but none of those 103 seats is Winnipeg North. It always hurts to lose one of your traditional seats. This is shaping up to be Winnipeg North all over again.

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I agree with this, I think Harper will call the Alberta by-elections first, and hold off on the Ontario ones until maybe September. Who knows, by that point the Liberals may hold Trinity-Spadina in Queen's Park too

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's the City TV news report on Dan Heap's upset by-election victory in 1981, featuring Colin Vaughan and Stephen Lewis:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R93Tjx-WY74

Watched that this morning. Amazing how open the NDP was about using the 's' word (socialism) back then.

[Hatman 🍁]

Athabasca County Deputy Reeve David Yurdiga has won the Tory nomination in Fort McMurray-Athabasca. Expect Harper to announced at least the Alberta by-elections soon.

[Hatman 🍁]

Meh. Nominations races are a joke unfortunately.

[Hatman 🍁]

Most likely they'd get to choose their riding, much like prisoners or military personnel.

[Hatman 🍁]

This may sound surprising coming from me, but I oppose the ruling. If you don't live in Canada, you shouldn't get a say in our affairs. The right to vote should be attached more to residency than citizenship, in my opinion. I'd rather a landed immigrant be granted the vote.

Having said that, I only oppose the ruling in terms of it being something I disagree with, I do agree that the law is unconstitutional. I am now convinced that barring the Chief Electoral Officer and his Deputy from voting is also unconstitutional. However, they are unlikely to file a suit.

Would the ruling on citizens living in foreign countries would apply to those by-elections (context: a Court ruled than removing the right of vote to citizens living in foreign coutries since more than 5 years was unconstitionnal. That would lead to one million of persons possibly added on rolls.)?

I am guessing in this case they would go by the last riding one lived in when they left Canada.  My question is what about those who have never lived in Canada but got citizenship by being born to a Canadian born parent, what happens then?

No clue. Most likely government or Elections Canada will have to find a solution (or appeal, as the judge refused to grant them a stay).

One solution might be to have overseas constituencies like France and Italy do that way you wouldn't have the issue of people voting in ridings they no longer live in, but they will still be able to exercise their right to vote.

If they do this, it would be hypocritical, as the government was quite upset when France decided to put Canada in one of its electoral districts.

[Hatman 🍁]

Gives enough of a buffer between the Ontario provincial election and the by-elections. Will be pretty confusing though for voters.

I wish Harper would've held off on the Ontario by-elections until the Fall.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, no Whitby-Oshawa by-election because the Tories don't have any candidates lined up yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

Early September would've worked for the Ontario by-elections as it would be far enough removed from the municipals.

Speaking of chain reactions, I think the most recent example of that was when Coderre resigned to run for mayor of Montreal. You had a by-election in Bourassa, then in neighbouring Viau (okay, no overlap, but caused by their MNA running in Bourassa) then the Montreal municipal election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, which often leads to the hilarity of having two elections for the same seat on the same day.

[Hatman 🍁]

Frank Whitehead, MLA for The Pas, Manitoba (NDP) has resigned. So, shall we expect a winter  by-election?