Canadian by-elections, 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

London West is looking good too. And much closer race in Sacarborough.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tories over poll here.

[Hatman 🍁]

London West has been declared, for the NDP!

[Hatman 🍁]

lol, the Tories are doing terrible compared to expectations. Leading in ONE seat? Hahahaha.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Libs have a great GOTV campaign here. I saw them buzzing around my apartment building when I got home.

[Hatman 🍁]

Scarborough was called a while ago.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP doing well in Scarborough, and that wasn't even his home riding, was it? Perhaps they should run him federally in To-C when the by-election comes up? Or as a replacement for in To-S if she runs for the Mayoralty?

Not To-S, but Trinity-Spadina, Smid.

And I thought than To-C already had a candidate.

Actually Giambrone's seat was Davenport. DOESNT ANYONE READ MY BLOG

[Hatman 🍁]

Might as well call Ottawa, that 6-point lead isn't budging. Hatman: didn't you say that it would've returned to the Grits in a GE anyways?

Yes, I did.

You'd think I'd be happy with the NDP winning 2 seats, but I was really excited about the thought of turfing the Liberals here. Oh well.

[Hatman 🍁]

I actually took more comfort from your analysis than the polls this morning.

Earl always does a sensational analysis. Hopefully he'll get picked up by a media outlet and get paid for it or something.

Here, here!

Thanks Max for your words of encouragement But, they are true. But, I'm pretty happy with my position now. I might become a talking head if EKOS moves into a more public direction

The NDP are the winners tonight, no doubt about it. The Tories are the losers, surprisingly.

[Hatman 🍁]

W00t. And that's a wrap, folks.

[Hatman 🍁]

If you take polls out of the picture then, it's not that bad of a night for the Tories. Hmmm.

[Hatman 🍁]

Now that this thread is likely headed into a kind of a lull phase before the pending federal by-elections heat up, I thought I'd repost my questions from earlier this evening (besides one which was answered before I even asked it):

2) Also, a few pages back, but since these five by-elections had become the main elections du jour of this thread, there was some discussion of the provincial ridings that will be in effect for the next election.  Like one riding was "fools gold" for the NDP but a strong showing could help set them up for the next election when the riding will be better for them (I think that might have been SG where Giambrone is running).  Are the new provincial election districts finalized in Ontario?  Will they be the same as the new federal ridings with/without an exception for Northern Ontario like after the last redistribution?  The federal ridings finalized in Ontario, right?  There was an update on that on either this thread or (more likely) the Canadian General Discussion in the International General Discussion board, so perhaps I'll browse through the last several pages there.  But there might have been updates since then (like more provinces finalized).  And how final is final?  I think the House of Commons has to approve the maps, which is why the proposed abandonment of the "rurban" federal constituencies in Saskatchewan isn't a sure thing.  There was also a minority report that from what I've read was unprecedented, at least in SK and possibly everywhere (ie. most of the time the commissioners are eventually able to come to an agreement or the person(s) on the losing side go along with the majority out of custom or something).

3) As Ontario currently has a minority government, it might be worth knowing what the rough time is after which an election called would use the new lines.  Perhaps that date has already passed, which would mean the new lines have definitely been finalized.

Okay, that's enough for now.

Provincial boundaries haven't been even looked at. The federal boundaries haven't even been changed yet, but expect the final report to be passed in the Fall. I don't know what will happen with the provincial boundaries, they will probably follow the federal ones again, except status quo in Northern Ontario (1 additional seat there). Don't expect new boundaries in Ontario for at least another year, and so the next election which could be in the Spring wont happen on them. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Bronwyn should run in Ottawa-Vanier. She lives there, and represents part of the riding on the OCDSB. Only problem is that half of her zone is less friendly to her. HOWEVER, that part of her zone is also more NDP friendly. Weird.

Oh, and I hate to rain on the NDP parade, but if the NDP were to form a majority government, they would NEED to win ridings like Scarborough-Guildwood. Not just London West. So, we still have a long way to go.

[Hatman 🍁]

Two Haitians in the race then? Interesting.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, due to Holyday's win, there is a potential municipal by-election in Ward 3 of Toronto. However, council could just appoint someone.

[Hatman 🍁]

And the dominoes begin to fall.

Wonder why the NDP are attracting so many strong candidates for a riding like Toronto Centre. I have trouble seeing them win there. But, I suppose all the party has to do is show potential candidates a map of the city, and show them what doesn't belong.

[Hatman 🍁]

Viau, another terribly named riding. Should be Saint-Michel. The entire riding consists of that one neighbourhood.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another snoozer, but perhaps the NDP will make a run for it?

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals won Provencher thanks to the Franco-Manitoban vote. They're all Tory voters now. The riding is more German though, and they are very conservative.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just saw that. Turnouts Rousseau is also of Haitian ancestry, although judging by his appearance, only partial. (Lighter skin, but with obvious African features).

Anyways, three Haitians running is very interesting indeed.

[Hatman 🍁]

Brian Topp?

It would be funny...

[Hatman 🍁]

lol...

not like we haven't run a former GG before!

[Hatman 🍁]

Who could it possibly be? No PM city councillor represents any of the riding. And, they wouldn't be that high profile...

lol...

not like we haven't run a former GG before!

Even Ed Schreyer can try again, this time in Provencher

lol. Better luck in Brandon-Souris.

[Hatman 🍁]

How big is "Bran Van 3000" ? I've barely heard of them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Max, will you be making a Viau map, or shall I? If you plan on doing one, it would be nice if you could use my new colour key.