2013 Elections in Canada

[Hatman 🍁]

I like Dexter too,  it's sad that Nova Scotians hate him so much.

[Hatman 🍁]

I like Dexter too,  it's sad that Nova Scotians hate him so much.

Its not at all clear to me why Dexter is unpopular in NS. He seems like a decent avuncular guy and I don't see any major scandals or miscues on his part...Nova Scotia is a poor province with a difficult fiscal situation - but i don't see how Dexter isn't a styep in the rioght direction - esp. after the absurd reign of Rodnery McDonald.

Dexter has had to make some difficult unpopular decisions.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the other two parties have shared power over the years and have avoided making the necessary unpopular decisions, and now the NDP has to swoop in and fix things, especially if they want to avoid being considered fiscally reckless (which any NDP government tries to over compensate for).

[Hatman 🍁]

WTF Annapolis Valley?

[Hatman 🍁]

Have you spotted a mistake?

No, just wondering what happened to the NDP vote there. The one in Dartmouth can be explained (popular local councillor running for the Libs)

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess that explains the PC swing in that one riding (Hants West?)

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there not a thread for the Ontario Liberal race?

[Hatman 🍁]

If anyone can get me some links about the delegates and what ridings they're from, I would be happy to make a map

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprising, I thought Wynne would win.

Anyways, hopefully the official delegate counts will have the riding by riding details.

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl, if you're still making that OLP map, I can at least give you the results in Ottawa-Orleans:

Ottawa-Orléans Riding results
Sandra Pupatello - 91 votes (9 delegates) + 1 from the Ottawa-Orléans Women Commission.
Harinder Takhar - 28 (3 delegates)
Gerard Kennedy - 27 (3 delegates)
Kathleen Wynne - 5 (1 delegate)
Eric Hoskins - 2
Charles Sousa - 0
Independent - 0

Interesting. Now only 106 more ridings to go.

Any idea why those results happened?

[Hatman 🍁]

The bad man has these infographics in the globe and mail (regional breakdown of delegate support), so the info is out there somewhere. Maybe I'll have to email the OLP.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/infographic-the-regional-breakdown-of-ontario-liberal-leadership-support/article7372357/?from=7372848

[Hatman 🍁]

Twitterverse has helped me out: http://www.cbc.ca/toronto/news/xls/election-totals.pdf

Seems to match Hash's totals for his riding.

I also emailed the OLP, they'll probably send me the same thing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's the map.



Blog post hopefully coming tonight or tomorrow.

Interesting things going on in this map. I see language / ethnicity and even religion are playing a role in this one. I am surprised that Vaughan and Nipissing didn't go for Pupatello. Anywhere else in the province with a sizable Italian population went for her.

[Hatman 🍁]

Earl: Italians in Nipissing? Really?

North Bay has a lot of Italians. Just look at some of the names of the politicians from there. Vic Fidelli is the current MPP and Anthony Rota is the former MP, for example.

[Hatman 🍁]

Miles, you support scrapping all day Kindergarten? You must not have kids.

[Hatman 🍁]

Miles, you support scrapping all day Kindergarten? You must not have kids.

No I don't, but I do remember when I was five years old and I can tell you as a five year old being away from my parents for half a day was bad enough.  I should note that when my parents went to school in the 50s, there was no Kindergarten, everybody started in Grade 1.  In addition I believe the Drummond Report called for cancelling it so anything in there Tim Hudak is on fairly solid grounds.  If he tries to run on things not in the Drummond Report, that is a different story off course.  I am not sure about other provinces, but to the best of my knowledge I don't believe any of them have all day kindergarten.   I know Quebec has cheap daycare but they unlike Ontario get huge transfers in equalization so they can afford some programs Ontario cannot. 

Good point, it was hard for me when I was 4 or 5, but I had to be shipped off to  babysitter for the afternoon. But, should we be making policy decisions based on the opinions of 4 and 5 year olds? What do the "education people" say?

[Hatman 🍁]

electionpredictions.org is now taking predictions for the BC and Ontario elections.

I'm thinking of doing a prediction thing on my site for the BC election (instead of doing my own)

[Hatman 🍁]

EKOS-ON: 33 OLP, 29 PC, 26 NDP.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2013/02/15/wynnes-win-breaths-new-life-into-ontario-grits-poll/

That's not much of a honeymoon bump.

I'd say going from 3rd to 1st is quite a bump, if not numerically.

[Hatman 🍁]

They didn't. In the 2008 election Ekos final poll projected CPC support almost exactly where it was when the votes were counted. In 2004 and 2006 they actually OVER estimated Conservative support.

Everyone overstated Tory support in 2004. There is a poster in our office bragging about how well we (EKOS) did in that election. Unfortunately we haven't been the best poster recently, but there are much worse polling firms out there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nova Scotia will probably be going to the polls this fall to pass judgement on their rookie NDP government.  There will be one fewer seat in the Legislature after a contentious redistribution process, where the government overruled the initial report of the independent electoral boundaries commission.

Here's a map of the Metro Halifax area that shows the results of the 2009 provincial election by polling division overlaid by the new electoral district boundaries.

All that orange is quite beautiful. I suppose this map will look quite different after the election- but not as bad as other parts of the province.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nova Scotia will probably be going to the polls this fall to pass judgement on their rookie NDP government.  There will be one fewer seat in the Legislature after a contentious redistribution process, where the government overruled the initial report of the independent electoral boundaries commission.

Here's a map of the Metro Halifax area that shows the results of the 2009 provincial election by polling division overlaid by the new electoral district boundaries.

All that orange is quite beautiful. I suppose this map will look quite different after the election- but not as bad as other parts of the province.

Has anyone calculated what the seat distribution would have been in Nova Scotia 2009 if it had been fought on these new boundaries?

I think Elections Nova Scotia did this.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nova Scotia will probably be going to the polls this fall to pass judgement on their rookie NDP government.  There will be one fewer seat in the Legislature after a contentious redistribution process, where the government overruled the initial report of the independent electoral boundaries commission.

Here's a map of the Metro Halifax area that shows the results of the 2009 provincial election by polling division overlaid by the new electoral district boundaries.

All that orange is quite beautiful. I suppose this map will look quite different after the election- but not as bad as other parts of the province.

Has anyone calculated what the seat distribution would have been in Nova Scotia 2009 if it had been fought on these new boundaries?

I think Elections Nova Scotia did this.

Elections NS redid their site last month and the notional results were taken down in the shuffle

Only thing that really changed was that the Inverness by-election would have been won by the Liberals instead of the Tories had it taken place with the new ridings.