Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't know why the PQ winning in Papineau is actually welcome news to me...

It's not Trudeau's riding. Papineau provincially is not the same as Papineau federally which is in Montreal. Papineau provincially is the Papineau MRC which is in the Outaouais.

[Hatman 🍁]

Taschereau (Quebec downtown)
PQ 41 (incumbent), PLQ 19 (minister for economical development, currently MNA in Montreal), QS 16, CAQ 16, ON 7, Others 1

A few pages earlier on this thread I thought it had been said that Québec was quite a conservative city, so I don't really understand. Could someone tell me who represents Québec now, downtown and suburbs, and what have been the evolutions recently ? Because PQ at 41, QS at 16 and ON at 7 doesn't seem to make that a conservative place...

Downtowns are always more left wing.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've never seen one riding get polled so often as Sherbrooke. Surprised to see Charest come back there.

[Hatman 🍁]

At this rate, I'm even wondering whether Charest might pull off an "Alison Redford surprise"--not by winning, but by getting the most votes and/or seats, or at least outdoing the direst predictions on devil-you-know grounds; the fact that the three main parties remain within 5-10 points of each other hints at such a possibility.  (Not probability.  Possibility.)

The possibility that Charest *might* snatch yet another Sherbrooke victory from the jaws of certain defeat suggests as much.  (Not "will".  "Might".)

If there's any surprises, it will be the CAQ not doing as well as expected. But let's face it, Quebec is not Alberta.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chaudiere-Appalaches is even more conservative. Hashemite hinted towards why on his blog.

[Hatman 🍁]

Are all the polls in, or are we expecting some more?

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are all the riding polls posted on this forum. Does anyone know of any that I have missed?

Riding polls      PQ   CAQ   PLQ   QS   ON   PVQ
Sherbrooke   08/17   46   11   31   6   2   2
Granby         24   49   16   7   1   3
Dubuc         44   18   32   4   1
Lac-Saint-Jean      59   18   17   3   1   1
Chicoutimi      53   19   21   2   1
Roberval      53   14   26   5
Jonquiere      51   17   20   6   1   2
Nicolet-Becanour08/22   25   31   16      28
Sherbrooke   08/24   45   10   33   7   3   2
Trois-Riveres   08/29   36   18   30   8   4   4
Saint-Maurice      42   22   26   5   2
Levis         18   41   27   10   2   2
Louis-Hebert      30   26   35   5   2   2
Hull         30   12   39   14   3   1
Papineau      36   20   27   11   3   3
Taschereau      41   16   19   16   7   1
Sherbrooke   08/30   41   11   39
Orford         35   22   36
Saint-Francois      39   16   37
Saint-Francois      46   18   26
La Prairie      35   32   22

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks for the riding polls, boys. Will take a look at them. Working on my final prediction now.

I will be done before I go to bed, possibly around midnight.

[Hatman 🍁]

effing Forum putting a poll out the night before. Oh well. I don't think my numbers inflate the CAQ too much, so I should be ok.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here it is, finally: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/09/quebec-election-final-prediction-and.html



And now to bed.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it's not like PQ is the "devil you don't know" in this case.

Yes, that would be the CAQ. They will likely underperform.

On its Twitter account, Ekos also releashed a poll

PQ 36.0, CAQ 24.5, PLQ 23.2, QS 10.7, Others 5.5.

I overheard some of the other programmers talking about running this poll (by the way, I'm a programmer there now )

[Hatman 🍁]

Any link someone can post for me to watch on the web a video stream of the results.  Will CBC have coverage of results and will they stream that online?

They will probably stream something on their site.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's what the predictors are saying:

Me
PQ 64
PLQ 33
CAQ 26
QS 2

Too close to call
PQ 66
PLQ 33
CAQ 24
QS 2

308
PQ 63
PLQ 33
CAQ 27
QS 2

Riding by riding (Teddy)
PQ 70
PLQ 30
CAQ 22
QS 2
ON 1

Blunt Objects
PQ 65
PLQ 31
CAQ 27
QS 2

Junkipolitico
PQ 60
CAQ 32
PLQ 31
QS 2

That's all that I can think of. Anyone know any other sites?

[Hatman 🍁]

Added junkiepolitico's predictions to my list. He's using Smid's map (with a credit to my site)

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of giant empty maps, I just put up my results template: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/p/quebec-maps.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting to see all the different colour schemes.

[Hatman 🍁]

polls closed!

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently the gunman did end up killing someone.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ridings I got wrong:

Beauce-Sud: PLQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a close 2nd
Bellecasse: PLQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a close 2nd
Berthier: PQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a distant 2nd
Champlain: PQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a close 2nd
Chateauguay: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd
Fabre: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd
Huntingdon: PLQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a distant 3rd
Jean-Lesage: PLQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a close 3rd
Johnson: PQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a close 2nd
LaPrairie: CAQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Laurier-Dorion: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd
Lotbiniere-Frontenac: PLQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a distant 2nd
Maskinonge: PLQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a close 2nd
Megantic: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Mille-Isles: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd
Mirabel: PQ (I said CAQ) - CAQ was a distant 2nd
Montarville: CAQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Papineau: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Richmond: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Riviere-du-Loup-Temiscouata: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd
Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd
Saint-Jerome: CAQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Trois-Rivieres: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a close 2nd
Vimont: PLQ (I said PQ) - PQ was a distant 2nd

24 wrong (101/125 = 81%)  not the best, but at least it's not at Alberta levels.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, should we expect another election soon?

Probably. I can't see this lasting very long.

Does anyone know who the front runners are for the PLQ leadership?

[Hatman 🍁]

Fournier is probably the frontrunner if he wants it. Maybe Coderre switches from the mayoral race but I doubt that. Bachand is too old and there's no one else.

Marois has said she'll call an early election, perhaps within a year. Wait for Charbonneau to report and decent polling, then pull the trigger.

Wow. She didn't waste any time.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Justin Trudeau should run for the Quebec Liberal leadership. Let's face it, being leader of the federal Liberals is a dead end job if ever there was one, but as leader of the Quebec Liberals he could easily be premier of Quebec! Besides what old be better than running against Marois and the Pequistes as "Super Just" the savior of Canada!

I hope you're joking, because Trudeau would be a disaster for the PLQ. Would be great for the NDP though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Im convinced Trudeau didnt win because he is Trudeau, but because would-be NDP voters in his riding thought of the race as being a 2-horse race between Trudeau and the BQ and voted Trudeau. That wont happen again next time.

[Hatman 🍁]

I remember 2005 when Boisclair's poll numbers went up when it was discovered he had been using cocaine while in office.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Gaspe is a particularly swingy region. Probably has an independent streak going on.