Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Poirot]

The Gaspé one was PQ 57 CAQ 13 PLQ 20
http://www.segmarecherche.ca/Sondages/Rapport_GI2708_2012-08-29.pdf

[Antonio the Sixth]

Election is tomorrow ? Well, let's cross fingers. PQ might not be great, but Charest ought to be kicked out.

[MaxQue]

Election is tomorrow ? Well, let's cross fingers. PQ might not be great, but Charest ought to be kicked out.

Yes, election is tomorrow.
Usually, elections are on Monday, but today is Labor Day.

[LastVoter]

Election is tomorrow ? Well, let's cross fingers. PQ might not be great, but Charest ought to be kicked out.

Outright PQ majority will probably have bad impact on NDP's electability federally.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Election is tomorrow ? Well, let's cross fingers. PQ might not be great, but Charest ought to be kicked out.

Outright PQ majority will probably have bad impact on NDP's electability federally.

Why so ?

[Poirot]

Terrebonne polls done last week. Again, I think they were released by the PQ candidate. Margin of error is 4,9%.

Repère had PQ 45 CAQ 35 PLQ 9 (24% didn't know or didn't want to answer)
Crop had PQ 49 CAQ 34 PLQ 10 (17% didn't know or didn't want to answer)
 
http://www.larevue.qc.ca/actualites_selon-crop-mathieu-traversy-aurait-une-avance-15-sur-gaetan-barrette-n24239.php


The Journal de Montréal made maps based on the predictions of Too close to call website.
http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2012/09/01/attention--predictions

[LastVoter]

Election is tomorrow ? Well, let's cross fingers. PQ might not be great, but Charest ought to be kicked out.

Outright PQ majority will probably have bad impact on NDP's electability federally.

Why so ?

Because it would reignite the old separatism fire and make it harder for NDP to win BC and ON.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Election is tomorrow ? Well, let's cross fingers. PQ might not be great, but Charest ought to be kicked out.

Outright PQ majority will probably have bad impact on NDP's electability federally.

Why so ?

Because it would reignite the old separatism fire and make it harder for NDP to win BC and ON.

Is modern PQ still interested in pushing forward separatism ? I apologize for my limited knowledge of Québec politics, but I thought the issue had been toned down in the past decade. I doubt there is a chance for a new referendum to be nearly as close as 1995, and the BQ's failure in 2011 is also a sign Quebecois aren't really interested on the issue.

[RogueBeaver]

The referendum issue has been dormant since 1995.

[You kip if you want to...]

Election is tomorrow ? Well, let's cross fingers. PQ might not be great, but Charest ought to be kicked out.

Outright PQ majority will probably have bad impact on NDP's electability federally.

Why so ?

Because it would reignite the old separatism fire and make it harder for NDP to win BC and ON.

Is modern PQ still interested in pushing forward separatism ? I apologize for my limited knowledge of Québec politics, but I thought the issue had been toned down in the past decade. I doubt there is a chance for a new referendum to be nearly as close as 1995, and the BQ's failure in 2011 is also a sign Quebecois aren't really interested on the issue.

Marois doesn't appear the most moderate person in the PQ on the issue.

[Hash]

A pyrrhic victory for the PQ with less support than in 2008 with a leader who is marginally more popular than the worst Premier of the province in recent history is not a sign that the "separatism fire" has been reignited, and Marois' shenanigans on the issue and a little fight with Harpy won't change matters.

Anyhow, guys, as fun as the "Marois is a fascist/radical" game has been, Marois is a technocrat who has only been playing the Marine Le Pen/referendum cards to appease the hardliners in the PQ who, lest we forget, almost killed her last year. So even if the PQ's campaign has been disgusting and reminiscent of the FN in more than one way, I don't believe the horror stories and the panic.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks for the riding polls, boys. Will take a look at them. Working on my final prediction now.

I will be done before I go to bed, possibly around midnight.

[You kip if you want to...]

A pyrrhic victory for the PQ with less support than in 2008 with a leader who is marginally more popular than the worst Premier of the province in recent history is not a sign that the "separatism fire" has been reignited, and Marois' shenanigans on the issue and a little fight with Harpy won't change matters.

Anyhow, guys, as fun as the "Marois is a fascist/radical" game has been, Marois is a technocrat who has only been playing the Marine Le Pen/referendum cards to appease the hardliners in the PQ who, lest we forget, almost killed her last year. So even if the PQ's campaign has been disgusting and reminiscent of the FN in more than one way, I don't believe the horror stories and the panic.

I'd never made the connection to MLP, but now that you mention it...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some recent comments here serve to show why the PQ isn't sweeping all before it, even though, given its status as Official Opposition and the Charest government's manifest and multiple failings, it really ought to be...

[RogueBeaver]

Robocalls?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/quebec-liberals-file-robo-call-complaint-with-police/article4516311/

[Poirot]

Forum in the National Post has a new poll out.
PQ 36% PLQ 29% CAQ 25% QS 6%

http://nationalpostnews.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/quebec-elections-poll-forum-research-20120903.pdf

[RogueBeaver]

A bit outlierish from CROP and Leger's results, but considering Fprum caught a fleeting glimpse of Wildrose's dissipating momentum in Alberta 6 months ago I wouldn't discount this poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

effing Forum putting a poll out the night before. Oh well. I don't think my numbers inflate the CAQ too much, so I should be ok.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here it is, finally: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/09/quebec-election-final-prediction-and.html



And now to bed.

[Smid]

Great work, Earl!

When will we start to see results? To save me doing a timezones calculation, would someone mind posting along the lines of "in so many hours?"

[MaxQue]

Great work, Earl!

When will we start to see results? To save me doing a timezones calculation, would someone mind posting along the lines of "in so many hours?"

At 8PM, Eastern, so, in 17 hours (it's currently 3AM, Eastern).

[MaxQue]

On its Twitter account, Ekos also releashed a poll

PQ 36.0, CAQ 24.5, PLQ 23.2, QS 10.7, Others 5.5.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Bit of a PQ bump in the last couple of days, it seems?

[Vosem]

So, it seems Forum is projecting some late momentum towards the PQ, while I was predicting the literal-opposite last-minute trend (both the PLQ and CAQ overperform).

Bit of a PQ bump in the last couple of days, it seems?

"last couple of days" = "right after Vosem posts his projections"

[Marokai Backbeat]

The fates are against you, Vosem. We already knew this.