2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Hatman 🍁]

Minority government is actually not such a rare an event in Ontario - in addition to 1985, we also had minority governments in 1975 and 1977 and in 1999 the Tories came within just a handful of seats of losing their majority - that was with the NDP only having 9 seats. What if the NDP has 18 seats? Then the Tories need to beat the Liberals by more than an 18 seat margin - of course if the Tories maintain a double digit lead - they will easily get a majority - but what if the gap narrows to 5%? It doesn't have to be razor thin - just get the Tory vote down from the low 40s to the high 30s and it becomes very likely.

I guess so... but the dynamics have been different since Rae's election of 1990. After that, the NDP has had trouble winning the seats they did in the 1970s and 1980s, which has made minority governments an unlikely scenario. Also, back then we had a centrist PC Party, and a right wing Liberal Party whose support was more limited, giving the NDP more room on the left, and the Liberals less room for seats. The Ontario party dynamics have changed.

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess so... but the dynamics have been different since Rae's election of 1990. After that, the NDP has had trouble winning the seats they did in the 1970s and 1980s, which has made minority governments an unlikely scenario.

But on the NDP's behalf (though it's still early to tell), the dynamics may be different again since this spring's federal election.

And even though it seems unlikely that the Liberal-vs-NDP paradigm will shift so drastically provincially as it did federally--my feeling is that there may be as many as half of Ontario's existing seats that, to use US terminology, can be classified as "tossup" or leaning in a non-incumbent direction.  And the sweeping bulk of those are, of course, Liberal.

The trouble, in the end, is that too much of the Ontario Liberal base is founded upon "not Harris/not Rae" quicksand which has been taken for granted for too long.  Thus, don't be surprised if a notional ElectoMatic 36 Liberal seats turns out to be half that--on whose behalf is another question entirely...

While the NDP could very well win a lot of seats this election, the dynamics haven't changed for the Liberal party. They have the same ideology; so NDP votes will mostly come from Liberal votes ensuring a minority government's likelihood will not go up significantly. For things to change drastically, the NDP has to start taking Tory votes or the Liberals will have to move to the right again...

[Hatman 🍁]

the latest Ipsos-Reid poll gives us a 10-11% swing from the Liberals to the Tories which, assuming a uniform swing (lol), would give the Tories up to 43 more seats, including Ottawa South (McGuinty's seat).

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the differences between the Liberals and Tories in the last election, in order. To calculate the swing needed, just divide the number by 2. So a 10 or 11 point swing means a difference of 20-22% in the last election.  Seats held by the federal conservatives in blue and NDP orange. (just looking at that, it appears no seat is a "safe Liberal" seat, as even the seats where they won the most massive majorities aren't held by them federally)

Nipissing               +1.40
Barrie                  +2.98
Kitchener—Conestoga         +4.78
Eglinton—Lawrence            +5.33
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale+6.75
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex         +6.93
Stormont—Dundas--South Glengarry   +10.13
Don Valley West            +10.76
London—Fanshawe            +11.18
Oak Ridges—Markham         +12.15
Mississauga South            +12.18
Brampton West            +12.52
Willowdale               +12.65
Richmond Hill            +13.10
Prince—Edward—Hastings         +13.54
Northumberland—Quinte West      +14.16
Scarborough—Guildwood         +14.52
Ajax—Pickering            +14.72
Mississauga—Erindale         +14.74
Perth—Wellington            +14.84
Oakville               +14.89
Etobicoke—Lakeshore         +15.32
Huron—Bruce            +15.41
Etobicoke Centre            +15.87
Niagara Falls               +16.41
Guelph                  +16.43
York Centre               +16.45
Pickering—Scarborough East      +16.93
Bramalea—Gore--Malton         +17.64
St. Catharines               +18.34
Ottawa—Orleans             +18.45
Elgin—Middlesex--London         +18.60
Ottawa West—Nepean         +18.84
Brampton—Springdale         +19.96
Brant                  +20.30
Kitchener Centre            +20.39
Ottawa South               +20.47
Scarborough Southwest         +20.62
St. Paul's               +20.89
Peterborough               +22.02
Essex                  +23.01
Chatham-Kent—Essex         +23.29
London North Centre            +23.45
Mississauga—Streetsville         +23.62
Kingston and the Islands         +24.91
Toronto Centre            +27.65
London West               +28.17
Mississauga—Brampton South      +28.35
Scarborough Centre            +28.54
Ottawa—Vanier            +28.66
Don Valley East            +30.52
Markham—Unionville         +32.55
Scarborough—Agincourt         +32.72
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell      +33.35
Etobicoke North            +33.84
Mississauga East—Cooksville      +35.85
Vaughan               +43.18
Scarborough—Rouge River         +50.59

And NDP targets...
Thunder Bay—Atikokan      +0.17
York South—Weston         +1.40
Timiskaming—Cochrane      +2.35 (riding doesn't exist federally)
Hamilton Mountain         +3.71
Ottawa Centre            +4.01
Davenport            +5.33
Algoma—Manitoulin         +5.61
Thunder Bay—Superior North   +8.52
London—Fanshawe         +12.36* (3rd place finish in 2007)
Windsor West            +24.52
Windsor—Tecumseh         +25.83
York West            +26.79
Sudbury            +31.64
Sault Ste. Marie         +33.75

[Hatman 🍁]

the latest Ipsos-Reid poll gives us a 10-11% swing from the Liberals to the Tories which, assuming a uniform swing (lol), would give the Tories up to 43 more seats, including Ottawa South (McGuinty's seat).

This is true on a uniform swing - but did you notice that in the federal election, Ottawa was one place in Ontario that bucked the province-wide trend and there was virtually no Liberal to Tory swing at all?

Yes. Plus, McGuinty might do better in the region because he is from the area. I know Ottawa South wont go Tory in this election, let's be clear. I'm just saying, he would be toast if there was a uniform swing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Obvious comment is obvious: if the swing is low in and around Ottawa, then it will be rather high elsewhere. Probably in places where there are more seats and seats where there are more swing voters. Oh.

Could also mean a lot of wasted swing in Northern Ontario. According the Forum Research poll, the Tories were leading there. Now, I'd like to know what their definition of Northern Ontario is. If it's the 705+807 area codes, then those numbers make sense. However, only a Torontonian would consider places like Barrie and Peterborough "Northern Ontario".

However, one has to think that many Northern Ontario Liberals will be voting PC this time, which is great news for the NDP which is already poised to pick up maybe 4 seats. Perhaps Sudbury and the Soo are maybe in play.

[Hatman 🍁]

the latest Ipsos-Reid poll gives us a 10-11% swing from the Liberals to the Tories which, assuming a uniform swing (lol), would give the Tories up to 43 more seats, including Ottawa South (McGuinty's seat).

DUDE. Seriously. A flat swing model does NOT work in Canada. You need a ratio swing.

Dude. Seriously, no mathematical models can predict elections accurately. You can rant and rave about how great your calculator works, and that's just great. I, on the other hand will be using more insight about specific races to gauge my predictions.

My swingometre is just for interest's sake, and will only help me a little bit during the pre-campaign period. You will note that I only changed 4 ridings from my previous prediction while using it: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/07/ontario-election-2011-prediction-mid.html

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think I'm off when I think an ELEVEN POINT LEAD will result in a Conservative majority or even a massive majority. The polls are suggesting similar numbers to the 1995 provincial election where the Tories were able to win Toronto... and well, everywhere else except the North. Now granted, much of this support may be coming from the north where it'll be wasted, but I think we can expect at least a few Toronto seats to turn blue. Enough to win a majority, at least!

[Hatman 🍁]

If you are going to be putting incorrect projections on your website then I will have to do what I did to 308.

You do that, then. But, I have a habit of predicting Ontario better than any other predictor, so I fore warn you.

You use your silly math, and I'll look at the real data: local factors.

[Hatman 🍁]

If you are going to be putting incorrect projections on your website then I will have to do what I did to 308.

You do that, then. But, I have a habit of predicting Ontario better than any other predictor, so I fore warn you.

You use your silly math, and I'll look at the real data: local factors.

Local factors would have had the NDP with 3 seats in Quebec in the last federal election. Math counts for a hell of a lot.

Quebec can be more predictable based on math, yes. But that is the nature of the province.  Ontario is a different beast. Can math predict who is going to win in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell? I'd like to see you do that. What about Welland? Windsor West? London-Fanshawe? Scarborough Southwest? etc. etc.

And you know, different ridings are more likely to see massive swings than others. Do you factor that in as well? For example, we wont see an 11 point swing in Ottawa South, but it is possible in many of the rural ridings.  I'm sure your electromatic screwed up in the Ottawa area, which saw Tory decreases. Did you have any way of forseeing that?

[Hatman 🍁]

EPP normally does quite well, and I have a better track record in predicting Ontario than them.

[Hatman 🍁]

EPP normally does quite well

And the reason why they fycked up earlier this year was because they were gutless wrt Quebec and (I suspect) wearing rose-tinted specs wrt the entire Toronto metropolitan area.

Indeed. I made similar errors.

Teddy, what were your Ontario predictions for the federal election? I'd like to see them. I know I did better than EPP, but if yours are so great, please show them.

[Hatman 🍁]

308's prediction record, however, is crappy even by the low standards of election predictions.

That's why I'm running my own.  I'm upset that someone gave him the Manitoba transposition numbers (for free), and won't share. But, I'm going to try and make estimates for my next Manitoba analysis.

Genco is running as a PC against Sorbara in Vaughan per the Star . 308 marks that as safe Liberal. A question to Ontarians: is it Sorbara's personal popularity that keeps his seat safe? Especially given Fantino's federal landslide in May.

Also, 308 projects a Dipper victory in Manitoba, 33-22-3 despite losing the popular vote 44-40.

As I discussed in my analysis of Ontario, no seat is really safe for the Liberals considering the ridings that they did the best in provincially are all held by opposing parties in the House of Commons. http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/07/ontario-election-2011-prediction-mid.html

(Vaughan went Tory, Rouge River NDP and Cooksville Tory.)

For the record, I still have the Liberals winning Vaughan, but that can change. I'm going to be releasing my seat by seat popular vote predictions in my next analysis which will actually look at local factors which is being ignored by 308.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the 308 guy has become something of a snob who thinks that elections are predicted only by universal swings and those myths and ignores basically things which actually count.

Yup. It was funny how people were making fun of him at the convention. I guess he has the last laugh though, as he writes for the Huffington Post and Globe and Mail from time to time,

[Hatman 🍁]

To be fair, no pollster predicted the NDP surge before it happened. Back to my original question: how vulnerable is Sorbara?

My gut opinion is that's he not that vulnerable.  I do not expect him to lose, but wouldn't be that surprised if he did. How's that?

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, Vaughan might be a potential target:

Liberal results:

2006 fed: 60%
2007 prov: 62%
2008 fed: 49% (-11%!) whereas the Liberals were down just 6% province wide between 2006 and 2008.

If The Liberals are down 11% province wide let's say, and add in an additional 5% such as what happened in 2008, and you're looking at 47% for the Liberals. Still a victory, but it could be more than just 5%.

What do you guys think? I'm trying to apply localized riding results to predict what will happen. Vaughan is a bit tricky, as it is trending heavily to the federal Conservatives, but I don't know if that will translate provincially. I guess we could look at regional 905 level polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

2011 fed: 29%. That's certainly an ominous sign for Sorbara.

Also, not as relevant. I *would* be surprised if Sorbrara got less than 30% letalone less than 40.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, the 2008 result was 15% higher than the provincial average. That might be a statistic to look at as well. If the Liberals get 31% provincially (last poll), than that means Sobrara will get 46%.

I think no matter how you boil it down, must calculations put the Liberals in the mid 40s in Vaughan. Which is interestingly enough, much lower than the 52% 308 gave them.

[Hatman 🍁]

New poll of 2,000 Ontario voters by Forum in today's Star:

PC - 38% (down 3)
Liberals 28% (up 2)
NDP 24% (up 2)
greens 7% (down 1)

Change is from the previous survey in June. If we compare to the 2007 election the Liberals are down 16 points, Tories are up 6 points and NDP is up 7 points, greens are steady and since the numbers only add up to 97% I have to assume that "other" is up a bit as well.

Damn, why did they do a poll while I was on vacation?

Oh well, interesting numbers. Now that could mean a Tory minority. Also of note, Hampton's retirement brings Kenora into play for any party. Just like Welland is now in play (I had it going Tory, but those numbers mean it will probably stay NDP). Kenora could go any which way.

[Hatman 🍁]

My riding by riding projections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/08/click-to-enlarge.html

Comments mandatory (either here or there)

[Hatman 🍁]

On the table at the bottom I think you switched "including toss ups" and "excluding toss ups".

I'll try to make the table more clear, but I didn't have it switched.

[Hatman 🍁]

There's nothing that's pouncing out at me as being particularly controversial.

I think I rate the NDP's chances in London - Fanshawe as being marginally better, not so much a tossup. The reason I say this is because I think strategic voting may support the Liberals in seats won by the Tories federally by a slim margin - seats like London North Centre or the Kitchener seats, however in seats which have demonstrated the potential to go NDP, I think voters will be less likely to vote strategically for the Liberals.

I probably am a little more optimistic for the Tories in Don Valley West, mainly from looking at those poll-by-poll maps, where a fairly significant portion of electorate voted for the Tories. Of course, it's a different election for a different level of government, with different leaders and different sets of baggage attached to different party machines, so I could be way off base (and being much closer to the action, you probably have a better idea about all of that).

I still think you're under-rating the NDP chances in Bramalea - Gore - Malton (I know that you tend to err on the side of pessimism with the NDP generally and in most elections, so I am not trying to nit-pick on this). My thought is that while things are again different leaders with different strengths, I am sure the work that the candidate did during the federal election may yet pay dividends. He has had his name out there for, well, must be at least since the start of the year, he has built up his networks within the community, and furthermore, with the federal Liberals finishing third, strategic voting may actually benefit the NDP.

I know I've mentioned strategic voting a couple of times now, and I know that it isn't as big an influence as many seem to assume, so I hope I'm not over-stressing that point, but in a very close result, it could potentially make a difference.

I'll have a closer look at your maps and tables in a little bit, those were just the seats that I've been thinking about recently, so they were the ones I looked at first.

Ok, so...

In London-Fanshawe, I think a lot of the federal NDP support there is personal vote for Irene Mathysen that she built by running in a lot of elections before getting elected.  The NDP candidate has some name recognition, as she is married to a city councillor. BUT, that might not be enough to win off of. I can tell you it might not take a lot to win the race though in a 3 way race.

Don Valley West is Toronto's most "conservative" riding, but if the Liberals get a good turnout in the Thorncliffe area, they should be able to keep it. Remember on those maps, the Liberal area is more dense, as it is more apartment buildings in the south end of the riding, while the Tory areas are in the wealthy areas that are less dense. Hence, you see more blue on the map.

In Bramalea-Gore-Malton, it's really hard to say what will happen there. Obviously, a lot of Singh's vote was personal vote, and he will keep that. He will even increase his votes from people who now think he has a shot of winning. However, without Jack steering the ship, there will be a net loss in votes- albeit not much.

I factored in strategic voting some ridings. It's important to think about what ridings will be perceived as close races by the voters- not races that actually will be. Just look at some of the non NDP seats in Quebec for what I mean.

[Hatman 🍁]

According to a Polara poll, the Liberals are leading 48-30 in Eglinton-Lawrence: http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1035889--colle-holding-his-own-against-star-tory-candidate-poll-shows?bn=1

My projection had the seat as a tie, and 308 has the Tories with a massive lead there.

This will be interesting if true, but is quite hard to believe. I stand by the fact that this race will be much closer than that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Who or what are 'Polara'? Constituency polls, of course, do not have a good record anywhere. As we all learned (again!) a couple of months back.

Sorry, it's "Pollara". I've heard of them, but don't know much. According to Wikipedia, they are the Liberal's official polling firm: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pollara

The margin of error was high, so we could be looking at a closer race.

But yeah, some local riding polls are spot on, some aren't. There'll be much change over the course of the campaign. But I doubt the Liberals are doing better there than they did in the last election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, hopefully some of our Torontonians can make some comments during the campaign about how things are going there.