OH-PPP: Obama 51%, Romney 46%

[ajb]

More info to discredit this poll, 4.4% early voting in reality according to GMU.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

In reality, that webpage at GMU does not say that 4.4% has voted early in OH. Follow the asterix.

* Ohio total 2012 early vote is a combination of available county reports listed here plus a Ohio Secretary of State report of in-person early voting only as of Friday, Oct. 5. Many county reports are not current. (Note that as of Sunday afternoon I am shy of updating nine counties because I no longer can connect to the data servers. I will try again later). The true number of voters is therefore higher than what I can verify through available data.

[ajb]

The numbers of Cuyahoga County are correct per the county website. Absentee ballots returned as of 10/12 is 25442 out of 667299 votes cast in 2008.


http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/AbsenteeVoterbyCityReport11062012.pdf

Plus 11 278 early votes. That's up from 9643 by this point in 2008, although at this point there had been 13 days of early voting, and this year there have been only 8.

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

If somebody wants to go through every county website in Ohio, to check to see whether the numbers listed at that GMU page are for absentee ballots only, or for both absentee and early voting, and can confirm how up-to-date those numbers are, be my guest. Until someone does that, we have a pretty hazy sense of how many people have already voted in Ohio...