If he loses Ohio and Florida he certainly can win, by taking the Kerry states plus Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. Or if he really wants to cut it close, Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada, with the House electing him.
Now, if Obama loses Ohio, a state where the issues line up perfectly for the Democrats, it will show that the election is not being decided on the issues, which is bad news for Obama. So to that extent, it is highly unlikely that Obama would win without Ohio.
Of course, we could ask the same question about McCain...how can he win without Ohio? I think Obama's chances of winning without Ohio are better than McCain's, as McCain would need to hold all the rest of the Bush states plus win either New Hampshire or Wisconsin, which seems a lot less likely than Obama winning Iowa, New Mexico, and either Colorado or Nevada.
Yeah, Ohio at this point seems to have Obama's name written all over it from an issue perspective. As for McCain, even as a Westerner, it's hard to see him clobbering Obama in Colorado given it's highly educated population (which Obama does well with). New Mexico seems even more dicey for him. The upper Midwest will definitely be Obama's. McCain is going to NEED Ohio.
