2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2 (user search)
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  2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2  (Read 85963 times)
philly09
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,111
« Reply #25 on: October 26, 2020, 07:58:46 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 26, 2020, 07:54:05 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 26, 2020, 07:47:41 PM
Quote from: 413 on October 26, 2020, 07:33:08 PM
Quote from: I Will Not Be Wrong on October 26, 2020, 07:22:33 PM
Quote from: soundchaser on October 26, 2020, 07:21:15 PM
Quote from: I Will Not Be Wrong on October 26, 2020, 07:19:49 PM
A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

Thanks for info! I looked into it, and apparantly theyre basing off of TargetSmart numbers. (Which I have read here aren't reliable?)

TargetSmart is nonsense. They were terrible in 2016, and there's zero indication from their current data that they've done anything to improve the quality of their projections.

MSNBC is having a discussion on the Florida vote using TargetSmart right now.

What did they say?

More about PA than FL, but basically 2016 was halftime in the EV, and this year is the 4th quarter and Trump will need a miraculous comeback to win.
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philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #26 on: October 26, 2020, 08:02:53 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 26, 2020, 08:00:09 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 26, 2020, 07:58:46 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 26, 2020, 07:54:05 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 26, 2020, 07:47:41 PM
Quote from: 413 on October 26, 2020, 07:33:08 PM
Quote from: I Will Not Be Wrong on October 26, 2020, 07:22:33 PM
Quote from: soundchaser on October 26, 2020, 07:21:15 PM
Quote from: I Will Not Be Wrong on October 26, 2020, 07:19:49 PM
A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

Thanks for info! I looked into it, and apparantly theyre basing off of TargetSmart numbers. (Which I have read here aren't reliable?)

TargetSmart is nonsense. They were terrible in 2016, and there's zero indication from their current data that they've done anything to improve the quality of their projections.

MSNBC is having a discussion on the Florida vote using TargetSmart right now.

What did they say?

More about PA than FL, but basically 2016 was halftime in the EV, and this year is the 4th quarter and Trump will need a miraculous comeback to win.

well yeah I mean I could have told you that based on the current turnout there:

Democrats        1,193,887   
Republicans   355,317   

Still, the Dems need to get to at least 2.8 Million to win. Obama got nearly 3 million votes in 2012.
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philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #27 on: October 26, 2020, 08:07:57 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 26, 2020, 08:03:53 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 26, 2020, 08:02:53 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 26, 2020, 08:00:09 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 26, 2020, 07:58:46 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 26, 2020, 07:54:05 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 26, 2020, 07:47:41 PM
Quote from: 413 on October 26, 2020, 07:33:08 PM
Quote from: I Will Not Be Wrong on October 26, 2020, 07:22:33 PM
Quote from: soundchaser on October 26, 2020, 07:21:15 PM
Quote from: I Will Not Be Wrong on October 26, 2020, 07:19:49 PM
A thread on FreeRepublic states that Republicans early vote has now passed Democrats? What the heck? (I read there for fun)

This is...very wrong, as far as I can tell?

According to Elect Project:

Democrats    14,657,980    49.0
Republicans    8,499,200    28.4
Minor    182,831    0.6
No Party Affiliation    6,555,672    21.9
TOTAL    29,895,683    100.0

Thanks for info! I looked into it, and apparantly theyre basing off of TargetSmart numbers. (Which I have read here aren't reliable?)

TargetSmart is nonsense. They were terrible in 2016, and there's zero indication from their current data that they've done anything to improve the quality of their projections.

MSNBC is having a discussion on the Florida vote using TargetSmart right now.

What did they say?

More about PA than FL, but basically 2016 was halftime in the EV, and this year is the 4th quarter and Trump will need a miraculous comeback to win.

well yeah I mean I could have told you that based on the current turnout there:

Democrats        1,193,887   
Republicans   355,317   

Still, the Dems need to get to at least 2.8 Million to win. Obama got nearly 3 million votes in 2012.

right but a substantial portion of NPA's will vote for Biden as well. 

I also think those numbers are really outdated still.  PA seems to be updating it's numbers really slowly.

I meant PA.
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philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #28 on: October 26, 2020, 08:53:35 PM »
Quote from: Single Issue Covid Voter on October 26, 2020, 08:51:12 PM
Quote from: BudgieForce on October 26, 2020, 08:48:59 PM
Quote from: Single Issue Covid Voter on October 26, 2020, 08:46:54 PM
I know I said I would not post, but I am just really curious as to how anyone can believe in Blue Texas with this new data?

Why don't we turn this around.

Why do you believe this new data is bad for democrats?
Comparing it to 2018, Republican primary voter share is up while the opposite is true for those with a Democratic primary history.

Why do you assume that R voters are voting Trump?
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philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #29 on: October 26, 2020, 09:00:40 PM »
Up to 64 Million votes. A million votes away from Hillary's total.
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philly09
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***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #30 on: October 26, 2020, 09:19:45 PM »






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philly09
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Posts: 1,111
« Reply #31 on: October 26, 2020, 09:26:55 PM »
Any polls out of NC-11?  Are they really going to send an anti-semite to congresspersons over a military vet?
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philly09
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Posts: 1,111
« Reply #32 on: October 26, 2020, 09:27:38 PM »
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philly09
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Posts: 1,111
« Reply #33 on: October 26, 2020, 10:23:39 PM »
What happened with Election Project?  The number went from 64.1 Million to 63.2 Million.
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philly09
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***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #34 on: October 26, 2020, 10:37:49 PM »
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philly09
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,111
« Reply #35 on: October 26, 2020, 10:39:27 PM »
Wasserman is throwing the hammer down.
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philly09
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Posts: 1,111
« Reply #36 on: October 26, 2020, 10:43:46 PM »




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philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #37 on: October 26, 2020, 10:57:59 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on October 26, 2020, 10:53:43 PM
Quote from: EJ24 on October 26, 2020, 10:47:55 PM
Quote from: Buzz on October 26, 2020, 10:46:23 PM
Quote from: EJ24 on October 26, 2020, 10:44:59 PM

Is this just some random person? lol

actually just read through his profile, very biased Biden supporter...

This coming from somebody who thinks Florida is safe R because of your feels.
I simply asked you a question, you're the one deflecting to off topics.

Philly guy here. I can tell you that the Delco became Democrat controlled for the first time since the 19th Century in 2019. I have every reason to believe that suburbs will trend hard for Biden. Trump might do well in Bucks County but that's not a surprise.
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philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #38 on: October 26, 2020, 11:04:36 PM »
Bug is fixed for the Ohio numbers. 64.3 Million votes. Ohio is nearly 40% of its 2016 vote.
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philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #39 on: October 26, 2020, 11:06:44 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 26, 2020, 11:03:32 PM
It might be anecdotal but it's obvious that Philly and its suburbs are trending hard left.  Philly + Burbs might be the only true blue state metro type voters in a swing stat this year.  Philly people are basically northeasterners who have much more in common with NYC/DC types than midwesterners.  They have the same hair on fire rage towards Trump that everyone else along the Amtrak corridor does.  There's no reason to believe they won't come out in droves again Trump.  The question to me is does this offset whatever is going on in the rest of the state.

If Biden does well in PA-10 as well as Luzerne, Lackawanna, and even Cambria, he might not have much to offset.
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philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #40 on: October 26, 2020, 11:09:38 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 26, 2020, 11:07:53 PM
Quote from: philly09 on October 26, 2020, 11:06:44 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 26, 2020, 11:03:32 PM
It might be anecdotal but it's obvious that Philly and its suburbs are trending hard left.  Philly + Burbs might be the only true blue state metro type voters in a swing stat this year.  Philly people are basically northeasterners who have much more in common with NYC/DC types than midwesterners.  They have the same hair on fire rage towards Trump that everyone else along the Amtrak corridor does.  There's no reason to believe they won't come out in droves again Trump.  The question to me is does this offset whatever is going on in the rest of the state.

If Biden does well in PA-10 as well as Luzerne, Lackawanna, and even Cambria, he might not have much to offset.


I'm also assuming he'll perform a bit better than Hillary in Pittsburgh and its suburbs.

I think all of that is reflected in the polls showing a Biden 5 point lead, which to me seems like where the race is now. 

I've had Biden at a floor of 5 since early Sept.
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philly09
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***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #41 on: October 27, 2020, 12:02:27 AM »
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philly09
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***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #42 on: October 27, 2020, 02:36:16 AM »
Democrats down to a 299k lead in Florida, though NPAs likely push it over 300k
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philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #43 on: October 27, 2020, 02:42:45 AM »
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philly09
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Posts: 1,111
« Reply #44 on: October 27, 2020, 10:54:31 PM »
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philly09
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Posts: 1,111
« Reply #45 on: October 27, 2020, 11:18:24 PM »
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philly09
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Posts: 1,111
« Reply #46 on: October 27, 2020, 11:18:52 PM »
71 Million have voted.
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philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #47 on: October 28, 2020, 01:08:31 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 28, 2020, 01:07:21 AM
Quote from: Rep Jessica on October 28, 2020, 01:02:31 AM
Quote from: GeneralMacArthur on October 28, 2020, 01:00:27 AM
Anyone want to give me a no-bullsh**t assessment of Nevada so I can go to sleep?

Are Dems actually in trouble?

Are Republicans gonna be able to steal it due to late VBM ballots?

Is Ralston for real or is he just screwing with us?

I am seeing signs that this election will be quite close and we'll be waiting late into the night to find out who wins. Nevada could be closer then it has been in a long time and NC and Florida will go to Trump!

What pray tell do NC and Florida have to do with this discussion about Nevada VBM ballots?

Not to mention I thought NC is swinging towards Biden.
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philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #48 on: October 28, 2020, 01:15:30 AM »
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 28, 2020, 01:13:50 AM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 28, 2020, 12:17:32 AM


Afraid to post this..... some beds are literally going to wetten tonight.



Bet you Ralston blocks him.
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philly09
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,111
« Reply #49 on: October 28, 2020, 01:20:12 AM »
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 28, 2020, 01:18:56 AM
Quote from: philly09 on October 28, 2020, 01:15:30 AM
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on October 28, 2020, 01:13:50 AM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on October 28, 2020, 12:17:32 AM


Afraid to post this..... some beds are literally going to wetten tonight.



Bet you Ralston blocks him.

that's me lol

Haha, well now.
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