Who were the key swing voters from election to election?

[SingingAnalyst]

Excellent summary.

In 2012 Obama won 81-18 for "cares about people like me". I suspect that was a significant share of the electorate, as Romney was well-respected and Obama's negatives were pretty high among conservatives. It probably made the difference.

An example of a voter group that did not make a difference was in 2008: McCain trounced Obama 86-13 among those who cited "terrorism" as a top concern-- but that was just 7% of the electorate.

2000? Ironically, Gore did somewhat better in FL than expected based on Clinton's '96 and Kerry's '04 performance; had Gore won FL and the election, FL would have been seen as a key "swing state" despite its relative inelasticity. I think the interior South and Appalachia swinging en masse from Clinton to Bush is much more significant: who would have predicted that WV, which went for Clinton by 14.3 in '96, would vote GOP in every subsequent election?