More likely to flip?

[SingingAnalyst]

I say Vermont; it is more rural, and the urban/rural divide shows no sign of abating. VA will continue getting more D as it becomes increasingly dominated by highly educated government workers and older people in rural VA die off.

[SingingAnalyst]

Vermont is decidedly not going to vote for a Republican for a long, long time.

What if the GOP full-throatedly embraces marriage equality, the Dems are increasingly perceived as anti-white, and attacks on gays by religiously-motivated refugees become somewhat common in the US? None of which I think is completely farfetched.