Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Comrade Funk]

There are actual border clashes and encroachments taking place right now in the Caucasus instead of this nothingburger.

Some people have a fetish for WW3

[Comrade Funk]

Might be time to revise these plans. Not much of a point in holding back munitions for a possible war with Russia when Russia is already at war and their military is being ground down day by day. If we're saving weapons for this hypothetical war, we might as well use them now. By the time Russia can rebuild its military, we'll already have replacements for the weapons sent to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1601314635755364353

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/09/military-aid-ukraine-russia-munition-stockpile-shortages/

Also:

Congressional aides have complained that U.S. aid packages to Ukraine are becoming increasingly divorced from the reality on the ground, with around $400 million going to Kyiv every couple of weeks—far less than what was being provided during the summer months, when the United States began providing the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System that Ukraine used to devastating effect against Russian lines.

“The administration doesn’t actually want to go faster in Ukraine,” the first congressional aide said. “That’s very clear to all of us.”

Worth reading the article if you like to follow military aid to Ukraine.

Something very Dr. Strangelove about this. "We must save our weapons for the next war, gentlemen."

[Comrade Funk]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/02/13/us-ukraine-war-critical-moment/

"U.S. Warns Ukraine It Faces a Pivotal Moment in War"

The USA, anonymously, now wants to put some caps on the scale of help despite its claims of "As long as it takes"

"We will continue to try to impress upon them that we can't do anything and everything forever," said one senior administration official, referring to Ukraine's leaders. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters, added that it was the administration's "very strong view" that it will be hard to keep getting the same level of security and economic assistance from Congress.
"'As long as it takes' pertains to the amount of conflict," the official added. "It doesn't pertain to the amount of assistance."

It’s not about putting caps on it’s about concern that the Putin simps in congress are going to cut funding so they’re saying Ukraine should maximize what it’s getting now

Thinking the USA should not get tied up in perpetual wars =/ simping for Putin.

So I take it you support cutting all military aid to Israel who have been at war since the 1940s?

[Comrade Funk]

Bakhmut will fall around mid-February (IMO).

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1619666237860229121?cxt=HHwWgsDRpZX3mvosAAAA

Happy Mid-February!

This isn't an own man. If you watch my later posts I predicted that Bakhmut might fall around mid to late February. Possibly extended to next month if AFU does small counter-attacks to the south of Ivanivske (Which I successfully predicted would happen).

Either way you realize that there is no strategic point to hold Bakhmut anymore (Except losing Siversk) for the Ukrainians. At this point it's politics the only reason they keep reinforcing this cluster of a city. You don't look a map and think this is an adventageous position to hold:

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor4/status/1626255805694758912

You can be mad all you want that the Russian army consistently underperforms your publicly shared expectations, the fact remains that you continue to crowd this thread with your overly rosy predictions for Russian military success only to have to continually revise them without admitting that you have been wrong. 

As for the actual strategic value of the city, I don't know enough to say you're right. It could be like Stalingrad in that regardless of whatever greater strategic value the city holds, the real importance of it is in how much the invader seems to care about taking it. Clearly the Russians will waste as many lives to capture the city as it takes, so if the Ukrainians think they benefit from keeping that battle ongoing I say more power to them.

I don't get why you're being hostile. Also, you don't have to lie, I haven't crowded this thread with predictions about anything (maybe a little of Kharkiv back in Sept.), except recently about Bakhmut (Which is an obvious call, it is going to fall that's a fact, in days or weeks is something we can discuss) - also Russians probably taking everything east of Zherebets river, that's a realistic expectation during these recent course of events.

My posting history is OSINT accounts/Geo locations, or Ukrainian Telegrams about the frontlines. Which is the most important part of the war. That's not me making predictions, it doesn't mean I am sucking Putin's cock or taking sides. It's just that reality is hinging on Russia's favor, that's something everyone has to acknowledge making forward.

Also, if you have to know, I have followed this ever since 2014. This conflict has more factors than just Russia vs Ukraine - whatever we disagree on, I think we all agree the course of action Putin went for in Feb. 24th was the wrong way. So that's why I believe Ukraine has the right to fight for emancipation.

Oh come on,
Just be honest with yourself. You definitely want Russia to win.

Maybe in the hysteria-driven mindset in which people see SirWoodbury, sure.
No, you cannot tell the side someone is on just because of the shibboleths they do and don't say. To assume such is arrogance, and such arrogance can definitely exist on a collective level.

I mean when he gets upset when people say Ukraine is winning and making threads in USGD complaining about the aid we are sending Ukraine it does raise suspicions. Not to mention his heads Russia wins and tails Ukraine loses way of judging the war (ie his attitude of Bakmut for Russia vs Kherson for Ukraine)

You can't just conflate those who are actually pro-Russia and those who think we are giving Ukraine too much aid...especially when it, undeniably, comes at the American taxpayer's dime, especially when said person has known fiscally conservative sympathies. And if thinking someone is (relatively or absolutely) strong means you support them, then Reagan's 1984 presidential campaign should have been investigated for KGB ties - who knows, maybe he's actually a Soviet agent trying to convince America to overspend on defense?

Oh please. There's at least two years plus of evidence from previous posts

[Comrade Funk]

B-but.....Woody says that Russia are winning the war!

Well, yeah. They're gaining land, isn't that what winning is?

Whatever land they've gained is negligible compared to the land they've lost in the last half-year, notwithstanding the embarrassing all around performance compared to the expectations. I know it must be hard to accept.

[Comrade Funk]

If they seize that airport, it's World War III. They're going to move into Romania. Russia doesn't respect the agreements it's in, why would they treat NATO as anything other than toilet paper?

Can you please take your meds.

It's his gimmick to doom.

[Comrade Funk]

It must get tiring to constantly scourge the internet for Russian apologia.

[Comrade Funk]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1694395180365775245