Which of these events is the least likely

[pikachu]

Tie between the first two though leaning slightly to Vietnam becoming a democracy. The current regime looks stable, it’ll probably be helped by tacit US backing for a while to come, and Southeast Asia doesn’t have a great record when it comes to democracy. I suppose as Vietnam develops more, it could see it pull off a Taiwan or South Korea, but I’d always bet against that. That being said, the only reasons I’m putting independent Quebec above it is because it almost happened in recent memory I guess the PQ/BQ are still relevant. Still seems way more unlikely than the other three.