UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[pikachu]

In mitigation though, its easily forgotten not only how badly Labour lost in 2019 but just how epochal it seemed at the time (all the confident proclamations about "realignment" and so on) and few would have given them much hope of returning to power in just one election then.

It is also far from impossible that what may well be to come breaks the underlying faith that many still have in the Tories as the "default" party of government, as happened after Black Wednesday (or indeed the Winter of Discontent for Labour) In fact, widespread voter enthusiasm for an incoming government was maybe only really seen once post-war - in 1997 -  and the way that ultimately turned out arguably shows that such a thing is not an unalloyed boon in the longer run.

What would be the minimum result Starmer needs in 2024 to stay as leader considering Labour’s starting from such a low base? Is it form a government or he’s out?

[pikachu]

What would be the minimum result Starmer needs in 2024 to stay as leader considering Labour’s starting from such a low base? Is it form a government or he’s out?

If the Tories lose their majority, and lack enough DUP votes to form a stable majority, Starmer is likely safe, regardless of the size of the Labour recovery:

• Inter-party negotiations on government formation, where Starmer's moderate tendencies make collaboration with the Lib Dems more plausible, and his electoral performance allows him to claim something of a mandate (will be fun to see the two Labour factions switch arguments from 2017 on this topic).
• A probable second election, arising from the incumbent government collapsing around a Queen's Speech or controversial legislation, particularly if the Conservatives try to limp on as a minority government.

Basically, if the Conservatives get under 305 seats, Starmer is ok - if they get any more than 320, he's likely screwed. A Tory majority of any size, even one challenged by a 250-260 Labour opposition (powered by a miraculous Scottish and Northern recovery), would be probably be sufficient for him to lose his job. MPs will praise his role in the party's recovery, but the memory of Kinnock and Corbyn's second attempts at an election (and the ambition of rival MPs) will probably be too strong to allow him to go on.

Follow-up to point 1, but is there any world where a Con-Lib coalition (or any scenario where the Lib Dems prop up the Tories) happens? My intuition says no way because I’d imagine the scars from the coalition are still there.