Which state is more likely to vote Republican in 2024?

[Jerseyrules]

I think it depends largely on who the nominee is and what kind of campaign they run. If the GOP continues heading in the direction of Trump-style protectionism and populism, I'd say it's more likely that Michigan goes red than Georgia. I'm still a bit surprised by the election results in that Georgia was consistently more red than Florida and North Carolina until 2020 in the elections during the 21st century. So if the Republican Party nominates someone that's more of a return to the traditional type of GOP candidate and they campaign as such, I think there's a good chance the 2024 map looks a bit more like the sort of ones we're used to seeing. But that's a pretty big if, and I'm not sure any of us can predict what's going to happen during the next few years. Trump himself will likely play an influential role, probably more as kingmaker than an actual candidate.